what will you spend on gas this holiday weekend? a check on pump prices. in today's cover story, prepare for merger. a deal takes off between u.s. airways and american. what it means for consumers. troubled waters: insights on cruise stocks following carnival's rocky week. plus, does apple have a trick up its sleeve? traders give us their takes on wristwatch rumors. first business starts now. you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning. it's friday, february 15th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: stocks stay stuck. stocks and comodities barely budged yesterday. a cross-current of postive news on jobs and m&a

deals in the u.s. offset negative economic data out of europe, which held the market in check. shares of herblife soared 15% after hours on word carl ichan bought 14 million shares of the nutrition company. and tiffany is suing costco. tiffany claims the club chain is selling engagement rings bearing the tiffany name. traders will enjoy a long holiday weekend. with presidents' day coming up on monday, the markets will be closed. mark sebastian of option pit mentoring joins us on this friday for a closer look at the market. good morning. > > morning. > what do you think about g20, and what will it mean for trading today? > > i think people are going to be paying attention to the japanese yen. there is a lot of discussion about currency manipulation across europe, the u.s. and asia about the monetary measures japan is making, and i think that is going to be the big issue of g20 and could really drive the yen on friday. > it has been a rough week for carnival cruise. what do you think about cruise socks, and are you surprised that carnival

hasn't taken a bigger hit? > > you know, i am a little surprised, and it probably has more room to fall. i am a little afraid of these cruise stocks. they just keep running into problems. i am not sure that that is one investment that i would be looking to make. > what about all the merger deals this week? we have berkshire-hathaway, warren buffett's group, buying heinz, the a-m-r u.s. airways deal. what does this mean for wall street? > > i think it is really good. i think it points toward some bullishness in the market, and some bullishness in the m&a market, which is good for everybody. i think that you could see a real pickup in m&a activity toward the end of q1 and into q2, which is bullish the s&ps and dow for sure. > thank you mark. have a good trading day. > > thank you. the merger of american airlines with u.s. airways is the 5th large airline merger since 2001. our cover story takes a look at who wins on the business side and whether consolidation of two more large carriers is good for consumers. american airlines keeps its name, but analysts say it'll be

u.s. airways management in charge with increased collaboration from employee labor groups. "i'm hopeful and optimistic they'll include labor, whereas american did everything to exclude labor from their business practices." both airlines have been flying in different directions. since november, 2011, american, operating under bankruptcy protection, lost $2.8 billion. during the same period, u.s. airways made $650 million. u.s. airways - half the size of american and not as well-known globally, gains international destinations such as london and cities in latin america. both gain in the u.s. "american's got great postion in ny and miami. u.s. airways brings in charlotte, philadelphia national. it's going to be good for business travelers." if the merger is approved by

anti-trust regulators, 86% of domestic flights would be handled by american and three other carriers: united, delta and southwest. already, analysts predict airfare will rise 5% across the board this year. some think the merger assures that beyond this year. "there will still be competition, but it does mean slightly higher fares." as for frequent flyers, miles on both carriers will be combined. but miles earned on u.s. airways, currently applied to united, will shift to american, but not right away. in fact, it may take seveal months before passengers see any significant effect. the merger still has be approved by federal anti-trust regulators, american's bankruptcy judge and shareholders of u.s. airways. carnival is working to get passengers home following a four-day cruise that turned

into a more-than-week-long nightmare. the triumph cruise ran into trouble last weekend when an engine fire left the ship adrift on the ocean. carnival is offering passengers $500 on top of paying for their travels home. the company estimates repair costs will cause an 8- to 10-cent drop in earnings per share. but the pr damage is unclear. europe remains a cause of concern for general motors. european auto sales dragged down overall gm profits in 2012, while china, north america and south america all delivered returns. in the fourth quarter, overall gm profits were up 89% from 2011. looking ahead, the company says it has taken significant action to put itself on a path for growth in 2013. however, ahead of the release of new models of pickup trucks, analysts are concerned gm may be forced to cut production, due to a backup of its current inventory. a "spirited" trade in the beverage industry is sending traders on a wild ride. the justice department was blocking

the merger of budweiser and corona. to get the deal done, anheuser bush in bev, which owns bud, is agreeing to sell grupo modelo's brewery in mexico to wine and spirits maker constellation brands. constellation spiked above $43 yesterday on the news as traders who were shorting the stock are forced to buy it into options expiration today. "well, as of mid-day yesterday, we saw 40 million shares of constellation being traded. the average day only has about 5 million shares of volume." scott bauer of trading advantage says the short squeeze is the largest traders have seen in a while. a sequester replacement bill is now on the table. senate democratic lawmakers released the plan, which offers to cut spending and raise nearly $55 billion in taxes by implimenting the buffett rule, a

minimum rate of 30% for millionaires. the cuts in spending would be divided between the pentagon and eliminating a number of agricultural subsidies. overall, democrats hope to replace $110 billion in automatic cuts, much of it set to begin march 1st. some facebook fans are not "liking" founder mark zuckerberg's move into the political spotlight. this week, zuckerberg and his wife hosted a fundraiser for new jersey governor chris christie. it was met by protesters angry because the governor cut funding for healthcare and planned parenthood. the majority of facebook users are women, and a petition has started online. zuckerberg's spokeswoman says the governor's record on education reform prompted the fundraiser. president obama's minimum wage plan isn't sitting well with republicans. he plans to raise wages from $7.25 to $9 and connect the increases to inflation, meaning wages rise with the cost of living. house

speaker john boehner and other republicans say those adjustments will make it less affordable for employers to hire more workers. google is facing criticism for tmi - "too much information." reporters are questioning the security of google wallet. that's the mobile app that lets consumers use their phone as a credit card. personal information like names, locations and email addresses are said to be given to third parties, including app developers, when consumers make a purchase. google defends its privacy settings, stating "the company shares information necessary to process a transaction." president obama is stepping up cyber security efforts in u.s. businesses. the president issued an executive order this week. it requests agencies set standards for companies with "sensitive infrastructures." those standards include updated anti-virus programs, being aware of all points where a company connects to the internet, and limiting widespread company

access. the measures are voluntary, but could become mandatory. as we head into the holiday weekend, gas prices remain on the high side. refinery outtages along the east and west coasts as well as in europe are driving up crude oil. crude futures topped off above $97 yesterday. oil is up nearly $10 in the past 2 months. oil trader phil flynn, a fox business news contributor, believes the refinery situation is stabilizing. "so that should ease some of the concerns, but not in all parts of the country. just yesterday, we heard in the chicago area a major refinery fire happened. it pushed up prices 9 cents, so i recommend staying out of chicago if you have to fill your gas tank." prices in chicago average $3.80. the national average for a gallon of unleaded is $3.62, up seven cents from last week. still to come, trading abroad.

what overseas stocks have caught our traders' interest. that's later. but first, breaking in. how to introduce your brand into a new market. that's next with bill moller.

you sell a thousand and some different products under your company brand. it's a big brand...but, only in other countries! you do sell some private label products in the lucrative and crowded u.s. market, but now you want to establish your brand here. so how do you do that? that's what one brand is attempting. dr. fischer is the company logo, and doctor eli fischer is the man behind that logo, which is especially well-known in europe and israel, where your health products company is based. i know one thing you do is to write a book, and you've done that: "dr. fischer: the man behind the logo." and you got president clinton to write the blurb, so that is something to help get that brand established. so what is your strategy for breaking into this country? > > the strategy is that we started in the east coast, new york area, for seven, eight months already. we visit doctors, ophthalmologists, pediatricians, pharmacists. it was quite successful. so we decided to go ahead and start now in the west coast, los angeles area, and florida, and

add products later. > that's the point. your company makes 1000+ products, but you are starting with only one. > > we decided to start with one product: this is eye- cleansing wipes, to clean the eyelids. it is very important. eye hygiene is very important to practice every day. more important than oral hygiene, because we only have two eyes, and if vision is deteriorating, quality of life is deteriorating. > that sounds like a whole new market category, eye hygiene. so you are also establishing that in addition to the brand. > > right. we think we are establishing a new concept actually, and people- it's so simple to practice eye hygiene that i think people should start tomorrow morning and do it after they brush their teeth, clean their eyelids, and material will not get into the eyes and they'll prevent many eye problems. > to get people to adopt that habit, though, you have to get the word out. so, are you going

to do this through advertising? what is the marketing strategy? > > we are going to use all social media that are available, and those that will be available in the future, because they are developing so fast. more and more people use it, so we are going to use all social media. > is that something that has worked for you in israel and other countries? > > yes, but there we also use regular advertising. but now, since social media is developing so fast and more people are using it, i think this will be the future. > all right, well dr. fischer, you're not yet a household name in the united states, you're hoping that within a few years it will be. thank you so much. > > right. thank you very much. still ahead, traders unplugged. the guys recently stopped by to reveal their trading strategies in apple, china stocks and booze! angela miles is back with that after the break.

time to have some fun! it's traders unplugged. joining us from the floor of cme group, pro-traders alan knuckman and andrew keene. good to have you guys on the show. put up your dukes! round one: we're taking a look at apple. will the apple watch or apple tv be game-changers for that company? > > the shares have finally bottomed out at the $450 level, and it has filled in that gap after that poor earnings response. but i think people might be interested in the watch, watching it on tv, and apple tv as different mechanisms. > > i love watches, i love apple products, but i think this

is the worst idea ever. i tweet probably 200 times a day. the last thing i want to do is be tweeting from my watch, going over here, trying to tweet to alan. i think it is a terrible idea. i think the tv will be a game-changer, but more importantly, the game-changer that everybody has been watching your show has been talking about is when they're going to deploy their cash and what they're going to do with it. if they to a stock buyback, that is the big game-changer. > > i think corning, for the gorilla glass, i think that has a $3 breakout potential here. you can buy the $10 call for january for $3. that is 50¢ for break-even. i think that's the play for some of the vendors that have suffered when apple stock went down. there is the bell. round two: it's the year of the snake. what do you guys think about the chinese index, xli? > > i like the xli, and i like to short the yen. any time the yen rallies i short the yen. actually, i am going to tell this too: four of the biggest

corrections in history happened the year of the snake, so i'm just saying, don't turn your back, the market might go whack- > > a snake symbolizes the skin, rejuvenation of the skin and renewal, so maybe you'll become bullish, because the market keeps going up. but looking at this index, china still has some more upside. it has been trading in this range for a good period of time, from 48 to 32 since 2009, so that projects a target 60% higher at 64, and that is very possible considering how high it has been just a few years ago. > > short the yen! > you guys are going to love round three: it's the booze boom. as you know, maker's mark is watering down its bourbon. do guys have a favorite drink stock per se? > > beam. i have a cardinal rule: i never short a sin stock. that means phillip morris, p-m or m-o. also the liquor companies. i think s-t-z is an interesting look down here. don't ever short a sin stock, because when this market does correct in the year of the snake, people are going to be boozing a lot. > > so hate the sinner but don't hate the sin? i like sodastream actually. it is a high-volatility stock. it has had a bit of a pullback- > > and a p/e of what, 900? > > that is irrelevant. i am looking for it to get up to $62. you can buy some options for march that i think are a good value. at this $45 level is a good support level- > > do you know where it's based out of? > > sodastream- > > israel.

> > -is fantastic to add to your drink if you do need something to go with that liquor, sir. > let's move on to your bonus round now. it was just valentine's day, so we are taking a look at some love stocks. give me the name, i will give you the ticker: f-l-w- s. > > s-l-w... > f. f-l-w-s. sound it out. > > uh, it's...flow serve? > 1-800-flowers! 1-800-flowers! all right, what about r-o-s-e, rose? > > is that genetics? > very close! rosetta resources. i am impressed. and l-u-v. > > southwest airlines! > > that is southwest airlines. that's one i know. > because we love you guys. thank you. > > thanks. > we will be back right after this.

we have enlisted the help of trader dan deming of stutland equities to check for clues about what could be ahead for this market. hi dan, you are definitely the right man for the job. > > we will see angie. we will see what we can uncover. > so far the market feels like it is a little bit stuck here

at relatively high levels, so that is a good thing for investors. but, what is your take on the market action? > > you know, basically angie, if you look at short-term expectations, the vol expectation's still pretty low. basically in the vix we are seeing the march options now kind of soft, not in a lot of concern there. if you look at the s-p-x, it expires today. vol expectations there pretty low as well. if you're looking a little further out on the spectrum, you have a few things in the marketplace - of course, the debt ceiling coming up is one. but if you look at the market overall, it is still maintaining at that these high levels. it is working off some of the overbought conditions it basically attained through january, and, again like i said, we're only 1% off of the dow high from 2007, and we're only 2% off of the s&p high from 2007, so the market is consolidating here at a very good level, and it looks like it definitely has the potential to push those highs in the next couple of weeks. > what is going on with the big money, we used to call it, the so-called smart money, a lot of people just call it, the institutional players now. what do you see happening with those big funds and portfolios out there? > > you are seeing some

allocations coming in, because basically what we are seeing is you're seeing some allocations coming into the market, then we are seeing them hedging some of that in the vix. but ultimately, they're putting a lot more money to work than they are kind of hedging out some of their downside risk. but if you look at the institutions in general-look at the m&a activity out there. you have u.s. air and american airlines and hines and berkshire, to name a couple- comcast coming through with that deal much quicker than expected. so, m&a activity has definitely picked up in 2013. that is typically a very positive thing for the market. however, on the flip side of that, as far as the insiders, you are seeing fairly sizable insider selling up at these levels. so there are more people kind of getting out of some of their market exposure, at least from the insider's perspective, than getting in. > thank you dan. have a good trading day. > > thanks angie. that wraps up our show for this week. coming up next week, tips to make sure your tax refund doesn't wind up in someone else's wallet. from all of us at first business, have a wonderful weekend.