celebration turns to caution as traders tune in to pivital economic data. in today's cover story, where's the beef? why we are eating less, but spending more. plus, the country's biggest banks face stress tests. why money could be on its way to investors. and, warner brothers breakdown: can star power turn around a tough year at the box office? first business starts now. you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. i'm bill moller in for angela miles, and this is first business for thursday, march 7th. in our first look, disagreement over electrical problems on boeing's 787's. japan's all nippon airways says there were 3 incidents of problems with electric distribution panels. japan's aviation workers' union said yesterday there were 5 incidents. the airline says

they were all minor. after firing the man who founded the company, groupon is on the hunt for its next ceo. bloomberg is reporting that the board has decided to look outside the company. sources say a search firm could be given the task within two weeks and will be expected to find a new chief executive within six months. some say it cannot be done without a lot of pain, but congressman paul ryan says the budget he will reveal next week will essentially be what the house approved last year. but the house plan would balance the budget in 30 years. he says his can do it in 10. let's make some sense as to what we can see in trading today. let's talk with todd horwtiz. he is the chief strategist for the adam mesh trading group. todd, the markets closed yesterday - yeah, another dow record, but it didn't quite have the vigor that we saw on monday. are we running out of steam here? > > good morning. yeah, it looks to be the market,

although making a new high, we see a lot of problems. we see a problem with the tape. we see a lot of problems with some of the industrial stocks. we see the financials are starting to slow down a little bit. the actual tape just looks a little bit weaker. it looks like the market is a little bit tired, it looks we are getting a little bit over-extended and a little bit exhausted here. > i see a lot of retail interest though. there is a lot of talk that the retail market, which has a huge bubble of investment dollars, is still maybe waiting in the wings and may yet jump in. > > i think that is what you are seeing also is typical. the retail trade is usually the last to get in, and i think that is what you have seen in the last couple of days. after, a week ago monday, the italian elections, big sell-off, i think that was everybody's final chance. they were going to get in, and they have been buying basically ever since. i think this is kind of, you are reaching the level, you kind of reach out to the top here, and i believe the market is really becoming a spot where you really need to observe or look to start selling off. > what do you expect for the bls numbers coming out on friday? a lot of people are thinking they could be better than expected, as we saw with the adp numbers yesterday.

> > i think that they will probably beat, but they better beat handily here, because we are now getting to a market that is kind of priced for perfection. so if they don't really beat, i think it is going to be an ugly number. but i think they will actually beat the street expectations here. > all right todd horwtiz, thanks so much. > > thank you, have a great day. bp is facing a new civil trial. shareholders will take the company to court in a civil trial set for august of 2014. bp is accused of misleading shareholders in the wake of the 2010 oil spill. meanwhile, another civil trial continues this week in new oreleans. a retired rig supervisor testified wednesday that he was not under pressure from the company to ignore safety measures in order to cut costs. in other bp news, it's been reported that ceo bob dudley received a $837,000 bonus. his total pay package was $2.67 million, which is down 21.5% from 2011. this afternoon the federal reserve releases the preliminary results of its latest stress tests on the country's 18 largest banks. if banks are given a green light by the fed, they'll be allowed to proceed with plans to return 10s of billions of dollars to

shareholders or use it to buy back stock. a lot of eyes will be watching bank of america and citigroup, which have not done well in past stress tests. there could be a lot of trading volatility in the financial sector when the information is released. more american businesses are finally opening their checkbooks. numbers from the commerce department show orders for non-military goods rose 7.2% from december to january - almost 10% higher since november. why? rising earnings, more available credit and growing consumer demand. two key sectors look particularly strong: auto sales are rising, and housing is on the upswing. talk about a spending surge. the new gluten-free way of eating has exploded in popularity. processed foods that are branded gluten-free now rake in about $4.2 billion a year. a survey found nearly a third of adults say they want to reduce or eliminate gluten in their diets, and now restaurants are noticing. it's pretty easy now to find items with little or no

gluten in them on the menu. gluten is found in wheat, barley and in rye grains. celiac disease, which is caused by gluten, is now four times more common that it was 50 years ago. the food industry research firm technomic says american restaurants are offering fewer beef entrees in favor of less- expensive pork dishes. as our cover story explains, don't look for a reversal anytime soon. the u.s. agriculture department says the price of beef is up from a year ago - nearly 3% for steak, nearly 4% for ground beef - some of it seasonal, but most of it tied to last summer's drought. "it's the most expensive thing to buy in the store." "it's ridiculous, but my thing is, if you work hard, you're supposed to have what you want." that steak you see at the butcher - pricier still in a steak house. "40, 45 dollars! that's a nosebleed for virtually anyone." bob goldin, who studies food industry trends, says some restaurants have figured out how to offset rising beef costs. "they're trying to be creative, using less-expensive cuts, reducing portion size modestly and using flavorful sauces to manage through a tough environment."

consumers aren't fooled, but they're not staying away, either. "the steak was thin, but it was delicious." a just-released study by technomic of trends for beef and pork restaurant entrees predicts even if sequestration has a minimal effect on the supply of federally-inspected meats, beef production this year will be down 5%, which could drive beef prices above last year's record levels. technomic also found restaurants offering fewer beef entres, replacing them with pork. "as a restaurant owner, you have to look at alternative proteins. and there's also been big growth in vegetarian options." as pork replaces some of the beef dishes, technomic also found consumers prefer it grilled, smoked or barbecued with sauces that are sweet over smokey.

the market surge is lifting a lot of stocks, but not office supplier staples. it just reported 4th quarter earnings had tanked 72%. that was due to restructuring and store closings. core earnings were stronger. but office supply is a tough sector. staples' 2 main rivals are merging officemax and office depot. the trouble is, offices are becoming more digitized, and mass market stores, along with online companies, are taking away market share. all of the major economies in europe contracted in the last quarter of last year, including eurozone powerhouse germany. eurostat reports that gdp of the eurozone shrank 6/10% from last october through december. some analysts expect the economic situation to get worse before it gets better. meanwhile, plans are being set in motion for a free-trade agreement between the u.s. and europe. president obama backed the plan, which will be the largest free-trade agreement in history. the e.u. ambassador to the u.s. says the free trade agreement would be a "win-win" situation. "you can find in all the states

of the union a very important presence of european investment - lots of trade going on. but we can do better. and if we do better around this trade agreement, we can improve the lives of citizens in america, we can create more jobs for americans on american soil, and we can create new opportunities for our companies." elmayda says he hopes negotiations for the trade agreement will begin this summer. ouch! microsoft must pay a fine of $733 million. the european union is assessing that penatly because mocrosoft broke its promise. 3 years ago it reached a settlement with the e.u. it pledged to stop automatically installing its internet explorer browser on windows operating systems. but microsoft failed to do that. in announcing the fine, the e.u.'s top antitrust regulator confessed to being naive to allow microsoft to police itself in adhering to the agreement. microsoft says it didn't intend to ignore the agreement. the problem was

caused, it says, by a technical error. details are emerging about dell's deal to be taken private. dell's board is defending its deal to sell the company to ceo michael dell for $24 billion. the company is facing pushback from shareholders who believe the deal undervalues dell. in a statement, the company said: "the sale of the company would be the best alternative for stockholders." it also noted, "we negotiated aggressively to ensure that stockholders received the best possible value, and agreed to a $13.65- per-share transaction." dell shares have been trading higher on news of the deal. at the close of trading yesterday, the stock finished up at $14.32. a big management shakeup at toyota. the biggest change: the appointment of a former gemeral motors executive to its board. also, toyota's u.s. sales chief gets a big promotion. jim lentz will now run the company's north american operations. toyota says it is doing this to give its regional operations more automony. best buy is telling its

employees to come on in! the retailer is cutting down on its work-from-home program. yahoo ceo marissa mayer ignited a debate last week when she banned workers at the tech firm from telecommuting. best buy workers must now get approval to work from home. about 4,000 of best buy's employees currently do so. wanna know a great place to work, where you can find peace of mind? work in a hospital. the american psychological association does an annual review of workplaces that provide a high level of mental well-being. on this year's list, of the 4 top places, 3 are in healthcare. hospitals are aware they're full of stress, but they compensate with perks like fexible hours, exercise and meditation programs. you can smoke, but you can't hide. a growing number of companies are screening for smokers. more companies are requiring employees to take a nicotine screening test in order to prove a nonsmoker status. health coverage is substanially more expensive for people who do light up. changes in the affordable care act could

penalize smokers with surcharges worth up to 50% of healthcare costs. coming up, with "jack the giant slayer," that's 4 bombs for warner brothers. in our movies and money segment we discuss spring and summer redemption for the venerable studio. first, michael jordan or lance armstrong? which is the best role model to inspire business teams, next on first business.

the business world looks to the athletic world for models of success and inspiration. usually it's a lesson in individual achievement, but there's a new book out that singles out former bulls champion michael jordan, not for his singular talents as a standout, but for his talents as a team player and leader. "doing more with teams: the new way to winning" is the name of the book. new york times bestselling author bruce piasecki is the guy who wrote it. why don't you state your premise here bruce? > > the premise is that in a world of 7 billion souls, fierce individualism is on its way out. team play, in all of its magic, is on its way in. > would you say that lance armstrong is an example of one and michael jordan the example of the other?

> > let me explain a little bit deeper bill. i think you are exactly right. i am in the middle of writing this book on teams, trying to follow up on my book "doing more with less," where i was looking at the role of competitive frugality. and i started watching a lot of old tape on jordan, having once met him live in a lobby. and what is incredibly beautiful about his smile and his play is that he makes everyone better - not just pippen and rodman, he makes the crowd better. he makes the owners better. when he endorses gatorade or other entities, he makes them better. i call it in the book that team coherence. it's something you feel when you see it. team integrity is another feature that i write about in the book. and then finally i write about the role of captains. > but lance armstrong, he is the example of the individual standout. it is all about him, not the team, not the rest of the crowd. > > absolutely bill. i was in the middle of the book when the anti-doping activities

occurred, and i had read two of armstrong's autobiographies, and had asked myself why does such a young man needed two biographies? and there were actually tonal and detail differences between the two. so when the anti-doping thing came in, what i saw was an icarus- type greek tragedy - a person who didn't view the team as significant, but had a fantasy of ceaseless victory, and had that element of fierce individualism that i think does not survive in the modern corporation and does not survive as a form of social capital. so when you start watching the best players, like jordan, they add value. and they have tremendous hang-time, bill, in their reputations, because they improve their relationships with everyone. > bruce piasecki, thank you so much. > > thank you. just ahead, will "the incredible burt wonderstone" trigger the incredible turn-around at the box office for warner brothers? movies and money is next.

remember that bomb, "john carter?" it killed disney's reputation, bottom line and its earnings. well, now it's warner brothers' turn with a fiasco flick. "jack the giant slayer," which last weekend slew profits and image. erik childress from the chicago film critics' association, our man for movies and money. i would think this this would have slain some careers, too. > > it might. warner brothers is having a pretty awful year so far. they had a big disappointment with "gangster squad," and then two more with

"bullet to the head" and "beautiful creatures." > this was the big money loss. > > this was the big money loss. this was a $190-, $195-, maybe $200-million-budgeted film, so it is a film that has to gross about a half a billion dollars just to break even, and that includes worldwide sales and whatnot. > now it does have some potential for redemption in the coming months. they have a half-dozen or so new movies coming out. > > yeah. next week we have "the incredible burt wonderstone," which is steve carell and jim carey. carell has a pretty decent track record at the box office. i think this might be their best film of the year, wonder brothers, money- wise. but then you look forward to april, and i think they might have a surprise hit with "42," which is the jackie robinson story. baseball season is going to be kicking into gear. baseball films don't always do very well, but i think this is a film that could transcend a lot of demographics. > does that one sort of have an independent production value to it, or is this going to be happy endings and a lot of cheering and heartwarming? > > i haven't seen the movie

yet, so i can't say exactly what direction the movie takes. i am sure it is going to be a story of triumph, so it is going to be a feel-good story on top of it. and it's a smaller- budgeted film, so i think this film, budget-wise, has a chance to be more successful. then you have "the great gatsby." > boy, the promotion for that is already in full swing! > > it was originally supposed to come out at christmas, and it was originally supposed to open up against "django unchained," which also starred leonardo dicaprio. so they moved it into may, and it's in the same slot that last year cost warner brothers quite a bit of money with "dark shadows," the tim burton film. but, does anyone really want to see another version of "the great gatsby?" i don't care how much razzmatazz. this was a book that everyone tried to avoid reading in high school. so i don't expect a boon of dollars to come in for this movie. > real fickle industry, isn't it erik? you can never know what is going to hit and what is going to bomb. and so much rides on these movies. > > you kind of get a sense - we kind of saw the "giant slayer" bomb coming a mile away. but then you go back, and

warner brothers goes back to the well for a sequel, and after "great gatsby" they have "the hangover part 3" coming out, which they hope is going to be a big hit for them. the other two, obviously, gigantic hits. the last film cost $80 million, so if they keep the budget down on this one, i think they can pull a profit. but, everyone hated the second movie, so you are going to see the profits come down on this one, i guarantee that. > i guess that would mean being a movie star, you're not getting as much pay these days. > > no, not at all. but then warner brothers, in june, has sort of their tent-pole film of the year, which is "man of steel," which is the new superman film directed by zack snyder. the last superman film, "superman returns," in 2006, didn't do very well for the studio, not a lot of people liked it so much. but, again, this is another very big- budgeted film, so it is going to take a lot of money worldwide for this film to come up in profit. > we have "oz" opening this week. we will see you next week and talk about some post-"oz" movies that are coming up. > > all right. > thanks. > > thank you. coming up, chart talk. stay with us.

ok, chart talk: let's talk with andrew keene. his company is keeneonthemarket.com. andrew, let's talk technology today. what are you looking at? three stocks, starting with ebay. > > i have three different

stocks, and i want to play them all a different way. i am looking at ebay, apple, and google. i am going to go with the trend - the trend is your friend on these. very, very simple: ebay has been a buy on any pullback. we saw a huge pullback yesterday, $1.70, about a 3% pullback. ebay is very strong this year. it is up a little bit this year. however, with the recent pullback i am looking to get long it. i didn't want to jump on yesterday, it's like catching that falling knife. i want to see a little consolidation. i look to trade stocks on the day trade around the 30-minute bar, so i am want to see a little bit of buy pressure, then i am going to get long. i want to get long ebay. i will have a stop under $51. the next one i want to look at is apple. apple, lower lows, lower highs, continued pressure. i talk about this $435 level. it is resistance. i am looking to get short apple on almost any rally. $435 was support. it should act as resistance, so i want to be short apple. the last one is google. google has been a beast: 52-week high almost every day. $7 pullback yesterday. i don't want to get long it just yet. these big-cap technology stocks and these big- dollar stocks have this way of

shaking people off, so i think google can get under $800, so i want to see it get under $800, then pop back above $800, and i will be looking to get long google as well. > it shows you you have to be smart. you can't just buy a sector, because within a single sector, all kinds of different things are happening, different forces at work. > > it is amazing. we had a huge, huge rally two days ago. two days ago my biggest long was actually down, and that was las vegas sands. so you know, sometimes it doesn't make sense. there are 8700 stocks, 3200 stocks with options, so every stock is different. in technology itself, apple is down 20% this year, google is up about 15%. so there it almost seems like there is a shift out of apple into google. i want to be playing with this trend, which means getting long google and short apple. > i remember your long and painful divorce with apple a few months ago. all right andrew, thanks. > > thank you. that's the end of the road for us today. coming up on tomorrow's show, no more working from home sweet home. a look at how companies are changing rules in the workplace. from all of us at first business, have a great day.