gone in a flash. why the speed of sold-out lollapalooza tickets is raising more than a few eyebrows. in today's cover story, inside the new york auto show. why it's the last chance for many automakers to make a lasting impression. plus, as one state considers making silver and gold legal currency, our traders debate which metal is worth a buy. and, which new release our critic says is the clear winner at the box office this holiday weekend. first business starts now! you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning. it's thursday, march 28th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: the s&p 500 is 2 points shy of a record high close, again. for the second session in a row,

the s&p comes within 2 points of a record close. the dow hit an intra-day high. gold ramped up 8 dollars. a pension plan out of califonia wins the right to sue jp morgan for losses tied to alleged risky investments in lehman brothers. the wall street journal reports chevron's board is cutting bonuses of top execs in the wake of accidents and mishaps. and amtrack is asking congress for $2.1 billion to upgrade its track system and buy more trains. let's check in now with todd horwitz of the adam mesh trading group for what will be the final trading day of the quarter and the week. good morning to you. > > good morning. how are you? > i am doing very well. what do you expect out of europe today? > > you know, i think that everybody is watching cyprus, although it is such a small,

minor thing. but, i think what will happen is, depending on how the banks react - if they do open and what the reaction is going to be like if they are open. i do believe that the u.s. markets are probably going to sell off either way, no matter what they do, because there still are some problems there. > blackberry has a lot on the line. their earnings are coming out today, and traders are anxious to find out how those sales are going, the presales on that blackberry 10. what is your trade, if you have one at all? > > you know, i am not a big fan of rim. i think they are a company in trouble. they look very much to go the way of palm. i don't think they have a long life in this industry unless they can find somebody to partner up with. i really don't trade it, i don't have a trade on it, but if i were going to make a trade, i would have to gamble that it would go to the upside just based on news, but i don't really trad it, and as they sit now, i don't think they are long for this economy. > i absolutely love that you mentioned palm. the palm pilot - i almost forgot about those. moving on to the weekend trade, what do you see happening here for the market overall? > > i think that you could see

some quarterly window dressing here, but i think going forward, i do believe that the top of the market is probably in. if you are in the market and you are long, just tighten up your stops. if you are looking to put money in, this is not the time for new money, it is time to observe the market. and if you are a trader like me, i think it is a great spot to look for a short opportunity, because i think any news over the weekend and any news coming forward can only be bad for right now, because we are up 15% in the last six months. i think the market is entitled to and needs a little bit of selling pressure. > thank you for coming on the show, todd. > > thank you. and then there were three... amr and u.s. airways are closer to landing a merger after winning approval from a bankruptcy judge yesterday. it leaves just three major u.s. airlines in the market. a controversial $20-million severence package for amr ceo tom horton was not approved. the department of justice and u.s. airways shareholders still have to approve the deal. ponzi schemer bernie madoff is casting blame from behind bars. the convicted con man who bilked $50 billion out of unsuspecting investors says banks "knew" about his ponzi set up. madoff reiterated to marketwatch.com from jail: "i have said that the banks must have known and were complicit and contributing to my crime."

madoff hopes this will "prove helpful in future regulation of the appropriate institutions." the new york times reports prosecutors are checking into whether jp morgan failed to fully tip off authorties about madoff's suspicious finances. banks in cyprus are re-opening the doors, but not without some intense banking restrictions for the island's citizens. cyprus has imposed severe capital controls to avert the likelihood of a bank run. the new limits mean citizens of cyprus cannot withdraw more than 300 euros a day. credit and debit card charges are capped at 5000 euros a month. cypriots are also banned from cashing checks, though deposits are allowed. the banking restrictions are set for a week, but could be extended if authories think it's necessary. yesterday, the euro sank to its lowest level in 4 months as worries of cyprus and italy spooked investors. wal-mart is already predicting it will pay a price for a foreign bribery scandal. the world's larget retailer expects to take a loss due to an ongoing government investigation. according to the chicago tribune, allegations surfaced last april the retailer failed to tell regulators the company was paying millions of dollars to get faster action on building permits. walmart

reportedly has launched its own investigation. lehman brothers is planning its next pay-out. early next month, lehman will distribute $14.2 billion to creditors. the payment is its third installment since the era following the firm's collapse during the financial crisis. lehman exited from bankruptcy last year, the largest bankruptcy in american history. the government plans to come out with simplified mortgage modifications for homeowners who have loans through fannie mae or freddie mac. starting july 1st, the federal housing finance agency says people who are late or missing payments could be offered a 3-month trial loan without going through a lot of red tape. however, there are concerns some homeowners who are behind on payments and mortgages and deep underwater might not be able to get help through the streamlined program.

a bigger toyota highlander, a beefier engine for bentley and the battle to build more cars in north america - those are driving top stories at the new york auto show. our cover story begins with another volkswagen model to be built in mexico, and headed for the u.s. market. unveiling its new golf gti at the new york auto show, volkswagen continues its big play for the north american car buyer. as with a lot of volkswagens already, the gti will be built in mexico, where labor costs are lower than those in europe and factories closer to the consumer market volkswagen covets. "since 2009, vw business in north america has doubled. our strategy seems to be working." "all consumers care about is whether building it in mexico makes it cheaper. we don't know the price yet, but that was the case with the jetta, when they started building that in mexico a few years ago." other north american debuts - a purple beast by bentley called the flying spur, a quarter of a million dollars that screams 'i've made it, now get out of my way,' lowering its ride height the faster you drive. "last year, we sold more than 8500. this year, we hope to

sell into double-digits." cars.com has ten reporters covering the debut of more than three dozen vehicles at the show. "for the industry, this is the last major show, and it's pretty much their last chance to get product out there. and they all want coverage in the largest media market around, but there are so many debuts." for cadillac - not your father's land yacht anymore - the cts is caddy's latest competitor against smaller luxury cars from mercedes, bmw and audi. "we're up 32% year-over-year, up two points in market share, and have a new product in the cts coming." so far, the u.s. is in a rebound year for the auto industry. consumers here are finding features in basic models upgraded to draw in buyers. "automakers are trying to put in features in base models as they can. we're seeing more base models with bluetooth than ever before." car sales in europe, however, are at their lowest point in more than 20 years. in its latest move to win back

customers, discounts are returning to jc penney. the strategy is to raise prices on its private brands - st. john's bay, jcp, stafford and arizona - then slash the prices. in a statement to reuters, a spokeswoman says the pricetags on merchandise are being changed this month and should be done in the next few weeks. the retailer lost customers last year after ceo ron johnson said such discounts cheapen the brand. mark zuckerberg is delving further into politics. the wall street journal is reporting the facebook ceo will help launch a political advocacy group. zuckerberg and other leaders of the tech industry plan to push legislation, including immigration reform. linkedin founder reid hoffman is also said to be onboard. last month, the zuck hosted a political fundraiser for new jersey governor chris christie. a growing number of american women are praying they won't wind up as bag ladies. according to a report, despite

making strides in the workforce, 6 in 10 women say they are the breadwinners in the family. 49% fear becoming homeless. 27% of women earning more than $200,000 are still afraid of growing old penniless. one other study finds the wage gap between men and women is stuck, leaving the average female earning 23% less than her male counterparts. boeing could be facing some trans-ocean trouble ahead. the faa may temporairily restrict the amount of time boeing's 787 dreamliner can be up in the air. the agency is currently in the midst of testing a new battery system for approval. due to boeing's international operations, travel restrictions could present more financial setbacks. the grounded dreamliners have already cost the aircraft-maker around $450 million. general admission tickets to this summer's lollapolooza sold out in a flash. the rock and rap event starts august 2nd. just before tickets went on sale tuesday, lollapalooza promotors

tweeted, "if you want a 3-day pass to lolla 2013 you better act fast, we're just saying..." about an hour later the early bird $200 general admission tickets were sold out. vip tickets were still available. trader dan deming of stutland equities says it's a classic case of what happens with a hot commodity. "this is a classic case of high frequency trading. basically what it appears to me to be is you've got a combination of scaplers - the allotment this year was 8 tickets - that seems to be bigger than previous years, you've got people opening multiple browers, you've got some algos out there that i believe are out there and trying to get into this market because they know it's an under- priced market." dan was fortunate to grab a couple tickets. the $200 lollapalooza tickets are already popping up on stub hub for around $350. easter looks like it'll get an 11% hop in retail spending. the national retail federation predicts the average american will spend a little more than $145 springing for new clothes, candy and goodies. if that happens, it'll push easter sales past $16 billion, and

higher than any point since the recession. candy-makers are also getting a boost from low sugar prices. "in the short term it's headed downward, but i see at some point we're going to see some incentive to convert that sugarcane to ethanol and use it for fuel as opposed to food." prices have been sliding since october's sugar high of nearly 22 cents a pound. it's now below 18 cents. still to come, hollywood hits go global. a look at why the box office is picking up steam abroad. that's later on. but first, pepsi or coke? trader predictions on whether those stocks are getting ready

to pop or fall flat. that's next in traders unplugged.

i'm going to pass chemistry, and i'll take it from there. i'm going to do what makes me happy. i'm going to work hard. be independent. live large. make the most of every opportunity. i knew i wanted to go to college. but figuring out how to pay for it? i didn't have a clue. the u.s. department of education has over $100 billion. and that's a lot of money. to help students pay for college. and the free application? you mean the fafsa. i did it online. it was easy. i'm never giving up on my goals.

i will make a difference. i'm going to find out how to pay for college. i'm going to college.gov. our traders are ready to let loose for this week's traders unplugged. joining us from the floor of cme group, alan knuckman and andrew keene. and we move right into topic number one, guys: gold or silver? arizona could become the second state to have gold and silver as legal tender. which one would

you buy? > > i like silver a lot more. it has industrial production. it is used a lot in mexico, in india. it has industrial production. gold is worth the same as diamonds. we had this discussion on the show, supply- demand curve, and the supply- demand curve seems like there is a lot more supply than there is demand currently, so i think it is headed lower. this is going to be the first year in 12 or 13 years that i think gold might actually have a down year. so i am taking silver. > > all right, we still have a long way to go in gold, but looking at gold, it takes 8 ounces of gold to buy the dow. that is getting to very near historic lows, so there is a lot of upside potential in gold if you look at it from that standpoint. but i do like silver. silver is about 45% off the recent highs. i think there is more upside in silver, and there is a really strong base at $26 an ounce for silver. > topic two: pepsi vs. coke - which is likely to pop? > > i like both of them, but coke has kind of limited movement. i'm looking for a 10% move, based on what the charts are telling us, to $44. pepsi

has more of an upside. i am looking at pepsi to get to $90 - 15% move. bigger move, same market. > > oh my god, this is two in a row i am going to agree with alan here. coke is more dominant worldwide, but i think we are seeing some global slowdown out of china, out of india, out of brazil. so coke has more of a presence worldwide. it also focuses more on the beverage brand. i like what pepsi is doing, trying to diversify their portfolio and bring in the snack brands. i think in the united states, the best house on the street wants to be a little bit more healthy, and we are going to look at health more in the future, which is going to be snacks. > topic three: moving on to that dollar dazzle - dollar general rattled the market after lowering its guidance. is it over for dollar stores? > > i don't like any of the brick-and-mortars in general, i don't like any of the retail stores. i know know the last time alan went into a dollar store. i know i haven't been to one in years. > i go all the time. > > every time i go in there i buy 15 or 20 things. > > you order everything online. but anyway, the question- > > i don't want to waste the gas to get to the store. > > right. you have got gas

prices you've got to deal with, you have the tax situation that has taken more money out of people's pockets, so it is putting pressure on the dollar stores. they are down about 30% off their highs, or they were. they have recovered a bit. i think there is better opportunity in wal-mart, believe it or not. it is the same market, it is the same inexpensive stuff- > > target is at 52-week highs as well. > > if you want. looking at wal-mart, i am looking for it to rise 19% up to $88 based on what the chart is telling me. > moving on to the bonus round question: which u.s. company has the best reputation in america? is it amazon or apple? > > i don't know what the word "reputation" means. > > yeah, "reputation," it could be a good reputation or a bad reputation. > just pick one. > > i pick apple. > > i will take amazon then. > > actually it's amazon. > > obviously! > it pushed out apple, because it was apple. so you are both right on this one. > > thank you. > thanks a lot guys. first business continues right after this. still ahead, we'll take a look at the competition in the box office as we head into the long holiday weekend. movies and money is next.

three new films hop into theaters over the easter holiday weekend. our movie guy, erik childress, is here, and erik, we are all ears. let's take a look at the three films that are slated to open up: "g.i. joe: retaliation" opens today, "the host," tyler perry's "temptation: confessions of a marriage counselor." who wins? > > pretty hands-down it is going to be "g.i. joe." > which gets an early start. > > absolutely. the thursday start, it is going to have showsm even wednesday night, late shows then. > wow. > > this movie was delayed from

last year. it was supposed to open last june in the summertime. about a few weeks before release it was pulled. some people said that they wanted to put more channing tatum in the movie, some people said it was based on a 3d conversion. some people just thought it kind of stunk based on early screenings. it's a little bit of all three. but it will still do very well. > what do you think about "the host?" > > "the host" is the new film based on the book by stephenie meyer, who wrote the "twilight" series. there is not as much enthusiasm for this story as there was for the "twilight" series, which has its legions of fans, so i don't expect it to do very well. > and tyler perry, he loves the topic of marriage. > > apparently. that is all he knows how to write about i guess. but he doesn't do it very well. you put him in a dress- > i liked "why did i get married?" > > no. no one likes those movies. > i- ok, go ahead. > > not very good. you put tyler perry in a dress, his movies make money. you keep him out of a dress, not so well. so i don't expect this one to do very well. > i am easily entertained,

apparently. ok, moving on, what happened at the box office last weekend? "the croods" at $43 million. "olympus has fallen" at $30 million. "oz: the great and powerful" at $21 million. "the call," $8 million. "admission" - ooh, tina fey not doing so well there at $6 million, and "spring breakers," i just added this in, because almost $5 million, and not on a lot of screens. > > yeah, small studio, new studio, a24, and just about 1100 screens. not a gigantic per- screen average compared to some other movies that opened on a small amount of screens, but definitely a success story. it is only a $5-million-budgeted film, so it is going to be a success. > and again, it is dark. > > very dark, yeah. don't bring the kids expecting to see your favorite disney pop princesses. > which is unbelievable. it's interesting how they grow up. oh dear. moving on: big sales overseas for hollywood. is hollywood gearing itself toward overseas audiences right now, would you say? > > i think they are always gearing themselves for overseas audiences. the overseas numbers are something that has become a part of the hollywood boxoffice machine. when they have more and more $100-million films out there, the budgets translate, they need those overseas dollars. you look at a movie like "a good day to die hard" this year, which was not a very big success here in the states, but has done over $220 million overseas, so it translates into a hit. at the same time, you have movies like last year's "john carter" and "battleship" that did very well overseas, over $200 million, but were failures here because those were such high-budgeted films, they ultimately became failures. "jack the giant slayer," this year, has not done very well

here or overseas. it is an even bigger bomb than those two movies. > good to have you on the show, and have a good weekend. > > thank you, you too. don't go anywhere. coming up, a trader gives his view on a stock that has been very active this week in the options market. chart talk is next.

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matt cavanaugh of cmz trading joins us now, and to be clear, we are about to talk about a trade that is not necessarily an investor's choice. good to have you on the show this morning matt. > > good to be here. > cliff's natural was very active in the options at the beginning of the week. traders were buying calls, they were suggesting the stock would rise higher. it did, and then... it fell apart. what was going on here? > > i think this is a stock that has really been under pressure. people were expecting good things, and then you see morgan stanley come out and cut their outlook for them. a lot of things that aren't so good happening for them. they really gave a weak forecast. they cut their dividends. and really, the stock is down almost 70%, so, not a stock you wanted to get caught long, but you see these option traders really trying to take advantage of the

volatility here, and i think that is the right play. > what would be your play? > > this stock, i think it's important that it holds the $18 area, so anything that i am going to do, i am going to say, "maybe we will get a bounce here." i am going to look for a bullish play or maybe even a neutral play and hope to collect some premiums. so i am either going to buy a call spread or sell a put spread, keep my risk defined, and hope to play off of some of this movement. > so you believe the stock could go higher, but you sure sound like you want that protection in place just in case it doesn't happen. > > absolutely. i do. i think that the news might be a little bit overdone. i think people might have sold off a little bit too aggressively into this. but, you know, it is possible that the stock could go lower. so, that being said, defined risk, defined reward. > thanks for your view today. > > thank you. before we take off today, a final reminder, the market will be closed for good friday, but we will be open for business. coming up on the show, stocks traders want to buy this spring. from all of at first business, happy easter!