as the market heads higher....traders question when will the rally end. in today's cover story....a closer look at president obama's new budget. what the details have to say about the future of bi partisianship. plus... a fed investigation. why a slip up at the federal reserve is making traders suspicious. and....a company finds a new tv audience...from a very loyal crowd. first business starts now. you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas good morning.it's april 11th.i'm angela miles. in today's first look: the dow and s&p head higher into uncharted territories. a wild rally wedensday sent the dow up 129 points for a record

close.the nasdaq moved up 55.while the s&p ended the day at a record 15-88.gold sold off $28 dollars oil gained 35 cents. in a busy after hours session last night...hewlett packard, intel and microsoft all fell on a report of a dramatic 14% decline in pc shipments last quarter.. yum brands dropped on weak sales in china,bed bath and beyond rallied on earnings that came in line with consensus. the kpmg insider trading scandal was caught on tape. that's right. fbi cameras were rolling as the deal went down in a starbucks in san fernando valley. the kpmg auditor involved in the deal was reportedly set up by a longtime friend. let's get ready for the trading day with todd horwitz of the adam mesh group and it's party on and good morning to you. > >good morning to you. another new record high.

> > absolutely some people feel like it might be time to leave the party. what do you think? > > i've been thinking for quite a while that the market is in bubble territory, however, the market can remain irrational longer than i can remain solvent so i think that for investors you need to have stops working underneath your positions and let the market go as far as it wants to go. it does look toppy. yesterday it looked a little bit like a short squeeze. the next big thud you hear will be the bears falling to the ground but other than that i think you want to just keep working your stops underneath as an investor. as a trader look for better opportunities. > >goldman sachs is bearish on gold. would you short gold at these levels? what do you think ? > > i don't think so. as we've talked about previously i think this 1550 level in gold is a key level. now, if we break below 1550, i think then it becomes your short. but we've been able to bounce off that level and i don't see any reason to want to sell the bottom of the market. typically the analysts sell the bottoms and buy the tops. > > moving now to natural gas, a hurricane is a comin. it looks like there is a 72 percent

chance we'll have a big one this year and that could move the natural gas market. what do you see there? > > that's always possible. natural gas has become very cheap. it's on multi-year lows with a little bit of a spike over the last few days but if we get what they're looking for we're gonna get a spike up in natural gas. if not, it's gonna continue to languish because there is a tremendous supply and the biggest help for them would be if they closed down the refiners. > > thanks a lot todd. have a good trading day. > >thank you so much. president obama unveiled his proposed budget for 2014 and beyond. it includes cuts to medicare and social security--long-held sacred cows among democrats. our cover story looks at whether the cuts are real or symbolic. the president's budget trims the inflation increase that social security recipients get each year.the cut--three tenths of one-percent--with exemptions for the poor and seniors 77 and older. the president's plan also raises medicare premiums for couples who live on more than 170- thousand dollars a year...and calls for low-income recipients

to use generic drugs more often. "i'm meeting republicans more than ha-way." "to a neutral observer, he's meeting them more than half-way because he's put sacred cows on the table, now." mr. obama's budget for the next fiscal year also includes 50-billion for roads and public works, a billion more to promote manufacturing and 77- billion for free pre-school nationwide. "study after study shows if you want people to succeed, you need to get them when they're young." to pay for it---nearly 600-billion dollars would come from limiting itemized tax deductions for famillies in top tax brackets. and imposing a 30-percent tax on those making more than a million dollars a year--the so-called "warren buffet rule." "what is really needed is a budget that promotes economic growth. do that and we'll get more taxes automatically." republicans call the spending cuts too small and that the president's plan and that of

senate democrats do the least among budget proposals to cut the deficit at the end of ten years. "the truth is, they'll fight obama on this but let's be realistic, they've caved before--who's to say they won't cave now." but some expenses are going up. for 2012 and 2013, the federal government's cost of setting up health exchanges to impliment the affordable care act will have more doubled to 4.4 billion dollars. besides budget proposals---gun legislation is also on the agenda. senate majority leader harry reid has scheduled a procedural vote for today on a scaled-back gun safety bill---it would crack down on firearms trafficing, increase funding for school safety and subject gun buyers to criminal background checks. a faux pas by the federal reserve is troubling to traders. minutes from the fed's march meeting were supposed to come out wednesday afternoon at 2...

but instead the minutes were accidentally emailed to about 100 people on tuesday around 2:00d. the key information went out to congresional staffers, lobbyists. as well as citigroup, jp morgan chase, wells fargo and other financial firms.an investigation is underway because the early release of the information may or may not have been behind a rally in stocks and sell off in commodities. the incident is under investigation... the fed's next meeting may 1st. postal service is giving up on its plan to end saturday delivery,after failing to convince congress.usps had hoped to shorten its deliver week in an effort to save 2 billion dollars.while some congressional members agreed with the plan, others wanted the

agency to negotiate for lower wages instead from the postal union and consider raising mail prices. a new study by the european central bank.. shows some surprising findings.although germany is bailing out a number of eurozone countries.. germany has the largest amount people who are considered poor. one of the categories measured home ownership. german residents ranked lowest on the scale. also, citizens in greece, spain and cyprus all had higher net wealth than those in germany. the head of the international monetary fund says europe's banks are "more dangerous than ever." christine lagarde told reporters this week that in the wake of cyprus' troubles: europe's big banks need to restructure. lagarde notes the global economic climate does not appear as dangerous as it did six months ago, but noted more improvements are still needed worldwide. meanwhile the world trade organization warned of weakness in global trade this year, especially due to economic fallout from europe.

a british supermarket owned by walmart... is removing tins of corned beef from store shelves. the asda chain reports finding low levels of a horse pain killing drug in tins of smart price corned beef. britains food standards agency says the levels were not dangerous to humans. horse meat scandals in europe begain to emerge back in january. an executive at wal mart is leaving the company just months after a private email went public. jerry murray, a mid-level executive at the retailer will work his last day tomorrow. back in february, a leaked email--reported by bloomberg revealed murray telling other wal-mart execs that february sales were a "total disaster." and called it "the worst start to a month" that he had seen in his seven years with the company. wal mart says murray left voluntarily. the ceo who was in charge of bp at the time of the catastrophic oil spill in the gulf... just

hit "pay dirt"tony hayward left bp shortly after the spill.. in 2010.last month hayward was appointed chairman of uk based gas company compact gtl. the company reportedly just made a "significant oil discovery" in iraq. meanwhile in louisiana.. the civil trial over who is to blame for the 2010 deepwater horizon accident is in it's 7th week. yesterday, the bp executive in charge of the gulf of mexico operations took the stand to defend hayward's decision to cut 75-hundred jobs at bp. investors who lost money in the bernie madoff scam cannot sue the sec. investors argued the securities and exchange commission "....failed to adequately investigate bernard madoff despite nurmerous warnings." a second u.s. circuit court ruled: the sec's inaction in the scandal is protected by federal law. the madoff ponzi scheme cost investors $17 billion dollars. there will be no golden parachute to rescue former jc penney ceo ron johnson. johnson, who came from apple, was dismissed this week from jcp due to poor performance.

johnson had a deal with penney to be paid mostly in stock when he became ceo in 2011. he owns 900,000 shares of penney stock.. but it only has value if penney stock climbs above $29 dollars. the stock closed last at $14. hedge fund manager bill ackman who has a major stake in jcp gave the stock a bit of a lift yesterday when he told reporters he's standing by the retailer. investors rolled out the welcome mat for taylor morrison this week. shares of the homebuilder opened up 6.1% yesterday, from its ipo price of 22 dollars and closed at $23.04. the return of the housing market has sparked an interest in home building stocks. also new to the market this week, shuttle tank operator knot offshore partners. that stock rallied nearly 4% on its opening day.

chimerix, kye-mare-ix ipo-s today. the company is developing a drug for use in stem cell transplants. also expected pharmaceutical company omthera. pfizer is closer to getting a new breast cancer drug onto the market. the fda is giving "breakthrough therapy" to an experimental treatment that could generate annual sales of $5 billion dollars. pfizer stock rallied nearly 3% yesterday on the news. it's being marketed as the ideal babysitter for home alone dogs. dogtv -- is a new television channel meant specifically for dogs. pet psycologists say the stimulation from sounds and images will help keep the dogs less anxious while their owners are away. it can be streamed online, or added to cable plans. shoe maker toms wants you to go barefoot. in an effort to spread awareness for the need for shoes in communities around the globe, toms is throwing it's annuglobal barefoot challenge on april 16th. entreprener blake mycoskie started the company 6 years ago, which donates one pair of shoes for each pair purchased.

still to come why dreamworks stock is getting lofty off of the success of a new film. plus....see if you can guess which industry is dodging the effects of the sequester. bill moller has the answer right after the break.

sequestration - doesn't that sound like a disease? the brutal federal spending cuts now kicking in that congress

cannot seem to solve. the cuts are supposed to hurt all aspects of the economy. how about the real estate sector that's been on the mend? ernst & young along with the urban land institute just finished a survey of 38 economists about that. dean schwanke is senior vp of the institute. is real estate sequestor - proof? > > i think that the fact that sequestration has addressed some of the budget issues. it has given some confidence to the marketplace. and its not such a big hit that it's hurt the economy. so real estate is viewed as a sector that is more stable right now than the stock or the bond market. real estate is on a good run lately and its immune from some of the ups and downs of things. it does vary from one month to the next.six months ago we saw some pretty poor job growth numbers and that hurt our forecast. this time we've seen better job

growth although certainly this last month has not been so good. so its attracting a lot of capital and that's what's happening. > > you're looking at both residential and commercial? > > the housing sector is showing much more strength in terms of improvement right now because it's been in such a bad state for 3 or 4 years. it's actually starting to come out of that and we're seeing a lot more growth going forward in the next three years. in the commercial side we have seen some pretty good performance over the last three years. so we're going to see some moderation in terms of returns on real estate investments on the commercial side. still good but not as strong as it has been. and the fundamentals on the real estate side should improve. rents and vacancy rate should improve. the same withy apartments, industrial, hotels. > > dean schwanke thank you so much. still ahead how the ultra rich are giving a whole new meaning to "home movies." that's next in movies and money.

the croods are improving the financial picture at dream works. our movie guy eric childress joins us on set this morning. good morning to you. > >thank you. > >do you think the success of this movie caught people by surprise? > >i think it certainly exceeded some expectations. i think everyone thought it was going to be a pretty decent hit for dreamworks and fox. but because the film has no competition out there in the marketplace. not a family film or animated thing until memorial day pretty much, it's able to rack up a healthy box office

particularly overseas where it has done over 200 million already. > > what else do you know behind the scenes that's going on? the stock price has moved around $15 near $20 now. what's going on at the studio? > > we talked not too long ago about how dreamworks animation laid off a number of people after 'rise of the guardians' failed to meet expectations last holiday. and that was coming off of one of the biggest hits of any studio last year, 'madagascar 3.' so they have one big hit then they fire everyone after 'rise of the guardians.' maybe now that 'the croods' is a hit maybe they'll hire some of those people back. > > that would be lovely. here's a look at what else happened at the box office over the weekend...coming up this weekend...let's start with '42' what are you hearing? > > i'm hearing some very mediocre things about the film. very traditional bio-pic. i'm not hearing very good things. i think it could surprise at the box office and do very well. it has been very well advertised and warner bros could certainly use a hit because they've had a

horrible year at the box office. > > nice pun eric. as far as 'scary movie 5' did not screen for critics. never a good sign. > >never a good sign. the film does not look very good. but the scary movie franchise has done quite well for weinstein and dimension. the last two opened over 40 million dollars. i think this one will be number 1 this weekend. > > i'd like to get your take on a blurb that showed up on the la times talking about wealthy people who are able to screen first run films. what you're seeing in the theater, they're seeing at home in their comfy chairs. > >if you got it flaunt it i guess. if you have a screening room, it's pretty much something like out of 'queen of versailles' the documentary from last year. iwant a screening room in my home but if you're paying $500-600 for a first run movie, that's just stupid. > > do you think it will be a trend that catches on? > >no. not at all. [laugh who wants to pay $500 to see admission in their home? i > >you never know when you're

flush with cash. coming up this weekend you have your film festival but that's taking on a bit of a somber tone. > >we're very proud of this festival we have this weekend. tickets and passes are still available. the first ever chicago critics film festival and with the blessing of chaz ebert we're going to be dedicating the festival to the memory of our fallen colleague roger ebert. so i hope people do come out this weekend. it's going to be a celebration of film. the very kind of films roger would have embraced if he was still with us. so we are hoping that this will be a little taste of his legacy and memory. > >very apropos. good to have you on the show today. > >thank you. coming up next.. get ready! big banks begin reporting earnings friday. find out if wells fargo is a buy ahead of the news.

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turning now to chart talk with matt cavanaugh of cmz trading. we're taking a closer look at wells fargo this morning. good morning to you. > > good morning. > > everybody is on pins and needles over these bank earnings coming in. what do you see in the charts for wells fargo? > > wells fargo is sitting right at a 52 week high and it's really make or break time for them. all eyes are gonna be on them but personally i expect good things. > > it's the first big bank to report in. you say good things. but how good? > > this is a bank that recently raised their dividend. they said that they're going to repurchase more shares in 2013. they really have been conservative. they've got good growth, good mamagement. they've executed well 11 straight quarters. so, how good? i don't know. there is some concern about the mortgage origination because they are the biggest lender in the united states and they've seen some slow down there. but i think this is a bank that's firing on all cylinders. add in a healthy dividend yield and you're gonna

see support for this stock. > >with such a big rally in the stock market overall, could a blooper coming from earnings such as jp morgan or wells fargo cause stocks to drift lower? > > absolutely it could and that's one of the big risks right here. but when you take a look at these stocks and you've got the central banks behind them. yo've got the government putting their full bite if you will behind it. that really should help these companies--- help these stocks. so if they do sell off unless something changed macroeconomically or there's a different story from the central banks then maybe its a buying opportunity. > > what's the next level do you think in the stock? > > i'd like to see it break 40. > >thanks for being on the show today. that's matt cavanaugh of cmz trading. > >thank you. that's does it for now. coming up on the friday show-- it's trader's unplugged with the guys stewing over the end of free lunches at facebook and google. from all of us at first business.. thank you for watching and have a great thursday.