tv First Business KICU May 6, 2013 4:00am-4:31am PDT
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major market milestones: from main street to wall street how investors are reacting to stocks at new highs. in today's cover story, is technology getting too personal as companies peek into your past to anticipate your future? plus, why more americans are 'turning down the heat' when it comes to retirement. and, searching for the truth: how google is predicting stock market behavior. first business starts now! you're watching first business: financial news, analysis and today's investment ideas. good morning. it's monday may 6th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: it's already a good day as the stock market starts the session
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in uncharted territory. friday, the dow closed at a record high after crossing 15,000 during the session. the nasdaq gained 38 points and was up 3% last week. the s&p had a record finish and ended the day above 1600. gold was up $1.00, oil $1.58, all on the heels of better-than-expected news on job growth in america. reports say lululemon faces a lawsuit. pension fund shareholders are apparently suing the board for raising potential bonus plans for executives the day before the massive see-thru-yoga-pants recall. and the chairman of occidental petroleum is out, reportedly due in part because of generous compensation. he led the oil and gas company for decades. scott bauer of trading advantage joins us now for a closer look at this red-hot market. good monday morning to you, scott. - good morning, angie. - stocks are off the charts. are you surprised by the pace? - we kind of had the perfect storm at the end of last week:
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it started with thursday. the initial claims number thursday was much lower than expected the lowest it has been in quite a while. that's really a leading indicator, so that was kind of the impetus for what we saw on friday. then friday morning we got that unbelievable unemployment number, which is the first time, quite frankly in quite a while, that we have seen such a good number, such a good economic number. so, it was kind of the perfect storm here. that, and we also have the u.s., europe, japan, basically back-stopping their markets. so, for the near future here, it is really full speed ahead. - so is it a time to go big on stocks, or take some profits off the table? - you know, what i have been telling people this entire way up here is stay in the market. volatility has been so cheap so incredibly inexpensive, that you can buy insurance. stay in the market, buy your insurance. i mean, you have insurance on
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your cars, you have insurance on your house. take out a very cheap insurance policy. catch the wave to the upside. yeah you give a little back with your insurance, but nonetheless, you are protected to the downside. so stay in this marketplace. - what about regeneron? this has been an eye-catching stock. is it too late to get in? - you know, when they just reported last week and they talked about their competitor, that that was going to be delayed for at least a year, that was, to me, the biggest news that they announced. and, it is, again, like the rest of the market, this is off to the races. we have seen this stock double over the last year, but the fact that their major competitor is basically out of the picture over the next 12 months, there is no reason why their earnings, why their profit, why revenues aren't going to continue to grow at an amazing pace. - thanks scott. have a good trading day. - thanks a lot angie. the stock market has entered never-before-seen territory. on
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friday, the dow made history, crossing the 15,000 mark. the s&p 500 was up above 1600. we headed to the streets to see whether the rally is attracting retail investors to jump on in. [reporter voic are you an investor in the stock market? "no, i am not, except for my 401k." [reporterdoes this make you want to get back in? "absolutely. every day i say to myself, would you just get back in?" [reporte are you an investor now? "no, not right now." [reporterdoes this encourage you to invest? "absolutely. it's a good thing, it's on the up." "i have my own mental struggles with it, thinking "when do i do it? do i want to do it? i have kids - should i set aside more money?" some folks cited time constraints and lack of funds as reasons not to head back in just yet, but all were optimistic. the jobs number on friday sparked the rally friday and while growth is happening in the job market, the number of college grads landing government jobs is rapidly declining. according to
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marketwatch.com, the amount of 20- to 24-year-olds hired by the federal government is down 40% from 2008. the april jobs report shows overall government jobs fell by 11%. one of the largest factors, sequester cuts that went into effect march 1st have federal hiring managers in a holding pattern. job pay is on the agenda with caterpillar back in talks with the united steelworkers' union. negotiations resume wednesday. employees rejected a new contract last week and are working under the old contract that expired april 30. the latest offer from cat includes a 6-year salary freeze. it also allows temporary layoffs for 14 weeks per employee, per year which caterpillar says could eliminate the need for indefinite layoffs. lawmakers return to capitol hill today. the issue of immigration still hangs in the balance in congress. however during a trip across the border to meet with the president of mexico, president obama told a crowd he's confident immigration reform will happen.
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"reform that continues to strengthen board security and strengthen legal immigration so citizens don't have to wait years to bring thier families to the u.s. reform that holds everyone accountable so immigrants get on the right side of the law and immigrants are not exploited and abused." senate republican jeff session from alabama calls the immigration proposal "dangerous" for american workers and tells reporters he will offer amendments to slow the legislation's process. federal regulators are chasing potential power-trading trouble at jp morgan chase. the new york times reports investigators are looking at what they call "manipulative schemes" used by the big bank to turn money- losing power plants into powerful profit centers. the scandal allegedly involves bad energy trades in california and michigan. also, a federal energy regulatory investigator reportedly found a top jp
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morgan exec falsely denied knowing about a similar scandal among energy traders in houston. the bank denies that the executive lied. the new leader of the sec is calling for safeguards against hack attacks. in her first formal speech as chairman, mary jo white was asked about the recent mini market crash april 23rd triggered by a fake tweet. white says it raises questions about high-speed trading and the sec is monitoring the market. she adds the agency is working on a larger role in the global financial system but is not strongly focused on reforming money funds. congressman eric cantor wants legislation that places new restrictions on the sec. consumers call it no big deal, but microsoft's search engine bing is attacking competitor google, claiming that the more widely-used search engine wants too much information from you when you buy an app from google. as our cover story explains it pits the erosion of privacy squarely against targeted marketing that often follows online purchases. microsoft, the company behind search engine bing, which has a 15% share of the market, is attacking dominant search engine google in a nationwide satellite media tour. "yes, we have a dog in the hunt but google is using your information in a way that we think you don't have to give up in order to get the benefits of
quote
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technology." bing's claim: that consumers buying an app from the website googleplay must provide names, email addresses, and location, which googleplay then sends to other app makers without clear warnings and with no way for consumers to opt out. "it seems like microsoft is playing on fears, but others will be willing to give up information to get a lot in exchange." google confirms that it takes the information, but an industry source says that consumer information only goes from google to the app seller. sellers agree not to forward it to anyone who may contact consumers later. some of that information, such as location, may be necessary for sales tax. at chicago's incubator for e- commerce startups, called 1871, entrepreneurs had this reaction. "bing's probably got a lot less info on you, so it's trying to turn a negative into an advantage." still, privacy in e-commerce is
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an issue that provokes strong opinions "privacy is super, super important. nothing goes on our system that isn't authorized on a one-to-one basis." it's not the first time microsoft has led a campaign warning consumers of being "scroogled," as microsoft calls it. and it offers a survey saying an overwhelming percent of americans are unaware and dissapprove of apps sharing your personal information. extended car warranties are under scrutiny. the consumer financial protection bureau is investigating add-on offers, such as extended warranties and extra insurance, often used by car dealers to make more money. the justice department is questioning auto dealerships that create their own loans,
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then charge higher rates to customers with poor credit. critics fear the probes could slow the sale of cars. following the horse meat scandal, officials in china uncovered rat meat on the market. cnbc reports police investigated 380 cases and have made 904 arrests. some of those arrested are suspected in running an operation that sold rats, mink, and fox. the meat went untested and was sold as lamb. china's government will crack down on its food safety guildelines following the scandal. in the u.s., some frozen pizzas are being recalled due to an unexpected topping. nestle issued the recall for its california pizza kitchen and digornio brands. customers complained after finding plastic on the pies. nestle blames a spinach shipment from a supplier. the pizzas were made in february or march. honeybee health is hurting america's food supply. colonies are declining from pesticide exposure, parasites and poor nutrition, according to a new report by the usda. honeybees
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help farmers produce crops worth about $30 billion a year. the usda says problems are mostly environmental and need improvement with safer pesticides and healthier habitats. a new study shows retirees are flocking to some surprising locations to enjoy their golden years. bankrate.com finds the top locations for retirees include tennessee, louisiana, south dakota, kentucky and mississippi. "what we tried to do is find several questions that everyone should be asking before they decide to retire, and rank states based on that. so things like which states have the best access to medical care which states are the warmest which states have the lowest state and local tax burdens. " chris kahn of bankrate says florida and arizona shifted lower on the list due to higher crime rates and higher costs of living. still to come, is google sending signals about the stock market? that's later on. but first, the jobs data gave a boost to the market. so what's
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market strategist for bmo private bank, and he's here to take us behind the numbers. good morning to you. - good morning. - are we on the road to recovery here? - it is really an interesting report. it kind of speaks about expectations and revisions. the number of 165 was along the lines of what we have seen over the past few years, kind of the average. the interesting thing is that over the past few days or last week, expectations had come down quite a bit. so the market was really looking for a low number, given the fact that adp data came in weak, you had the fed come out on last tuesday and say they may have to do more easing. so i think the market was looking for a disappointing number, and certainly it didn't get it. - let's take a look at these revisions, because they are surprising. in february, we get a big jump, going from 268,000 up to 332,000. in march, we have 88,000 to 138,000, for a grand total of 114,000 jobs added. - i love it when i get to be
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right occasionally. and last month i sat in this chair and we talked about the 88,000 number and i think i mentioned that it would be revised a couple times, and to not get too excited about it. - there were some other surprises as well. here is a look at some of the other details from the unemployment rate. workweek hours going from 34.6 down to 34.4, and hourly earnings moving up by 0.2%. so how do you look at the numbers going forward? what is your expectation now? - sure. i think there were some positive things last week. initial jobless claims which have a huge relationship to the unemployment level actually fell to 324,000, which is, i think, the lowest since 2008. if you look back over longer periods of time, that is pretty low, and usually you are getting good job growth during those time periods. you have japan, with their massive stimulus program. you have europe which, although they are still in in a recession and possibly a depression, seems to be getting a little bit better. so that, combined with housing in the u.s., provides a
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positive backdrop. i think still weighing on jobs though it is the federal government and the health-care plan that is yet to be implemented. i have heard plenty of anecdotal evidence of people holding off hiring until they know what that is, and then i think the federal reserve is actually creating, by trying to create certainty now, they are actually creating uncertainty in the future. - thank you for your thoughts today, brent. we'll see you next month. - thank you. still ahead, signals that twitter is inching closer to going public. plus what google's search feature knows about the market that you don't. that's coming up
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rumours continue to spread about twitter going public. the social network has hired morgan stanley's managing director cynthia gaylor to run corporate development. analysts say gaylor's experience at the firm includes providing insights into initial public offerings. twitter did not make gaylor available for comment. trends emerging on google could be moving the dow. suzy moat joins us today from the warwick business school in the uk - cheers to you. when did this first come to your attention? - it's more a case that google searches give us some insights into the early stages of traders making decisions. so whereas stock market data tell us something about actions that traders are taking in the markets, google data we thought, could potentially tell us something about the information that traders were looking for as they attempted to make those decisions. - what else did you find in your research, and specifically what words seem to be coming up the most? - we found that terms which were more financially relevant
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were better indicators of upcoming stock market moves. it obviously is a little bit difficult to say, "is this word financially relevant? is that word not financially relevant?" so what we did is we looked at how often terms occurred in the financial times between 2004 and 2011 and we divided that number by the number of times that google found those terms online. so, for example, "debt" or "portfolio," we looked at a range of terms - "nasdaq." we also included terms which instinctively, we thought would be less financially relevant like "garden" or "wedding," for example. - after doing this research, how do you feel about the health of the stock market? - i think we are more excited about the fact that we can perhaps gain extra insight into how these decisions are made in the stock markets, and we hope that the perspective that large data sources like google trends can give us on these movements may allow us to build a better understanding of stock market
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behavior and therefore perhaps work toward a healthier stock market. - how would the average investor tap into this information? - that's a very important question, and also a very difficult question. it's clear that simply following what we described in that paper would not be sufficient to be able to anticipate what is happening tomorrow or the week after. we're very lucky to have two fantastic collaborators at boston university who are working on this at the moment. - suzy moat, a pleasure speaking with you today from the warwick business school in the uk. - thank you very much. still ahead, "iron man" clobbered the competition at the box office. does disney stock still have superhero powers for your portfolio?
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i wanted to be in the military since i was a kid. i served a total of 16 years. and at 19 years old, that's the first time i ever saw somebody die. coming back, i was raging. i started having pretty horrible nightmares. i started drinking a lot. i guess i never recognized it in myself. it all starts with going to the va. there's a whole community of veterans that just want to help you out. it's for the guys who couldn't come back
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disney has a smash hit with "iron man 3." james ramelli of keeneonthemarket.com is here to talk about disney stock. good morning to you james, and is this stock ready to roll some more here? - you know, i think it is. the stock is up 24% this year. it has one of the best looking charts out there, straight up all year long. this stock made a new 52-week high on friday. they report earnings on tuesday. i don't want to get aggressively long a stock on its 52-week highs. it closed on those highs today. i would like to see a little bit of a pullback to near-term support before diving into this name. - what levels are we looking for where you might want to buy
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this stock? - we have some near-term support in the $63-$65 range. i could wait to that level to get in. it could pull back all the way to $60, we do have another level below there at $60 that i could get in. that would be the most attractive level; however with earnings coming up tuesday if we see a break-out, i could play the break-out as well. - what are the options saying about this earnings report or what is your trader feel for what we will hear from disney and what the stock might or might not do? - i feel like earnings are going to be positive here. they are expecting a pretty good number from disney. keep in mind that they hold five of the highest-grossing networks in their portfolios and some of the biggest names in film. i think they are going to guide up higher, and i think the stock will head higher on earnings; but, if they do miss and i do get that pullback, it gives me an even better opportunity to get in. - terrific, james. we'll be watching. thank you. - thank you. that's it for this monday. coming up tomorrow, a company is out with a bitcoin atm. the digital currency people use online is getting a ton of attention, but is it all going a bit too far? from all of us at first business, we wish you a great week.
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