tv First Business KICU May 28, 2013 4:00am-4:31am PDT
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wallet relief: why gas prices could be headed for a summer drop. in today's cover story, the fix is in: as boeing's dreamliners begin to retake the skies, a look at the new safety standards. and, what you type can be used against you. how social media evidence is being used in the courtroom. plus, lionsgate. you know their shows and movies: "mad men," "the hunger games." trader insights on whether that stock is about to pop. first business starts now! you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning. it's tuesday, may 28th. i'm bill moller for angela miles. the markets closed down for the week. volume soared. is this a bear market in the making? here are the numbers
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as the markets open this morning: it was red across the board most of friday. the dow peeked into the positive just before the close. most energy stocks closing out last week in the tank. oil futures lost about 2% last week. hess corporation was one of the biggest losers. there will be another presidential walk along the new jersey shore today. as they did immediatly after superstorm sandy, governor christie will escort president obama on an inspection tour of the ravaged beaches to see the recovery here at the beginning of the summer beach season. pandora lost some energy friday. shares tumbled down 4.3% as concerns grew over the online music company's profitability. one analyst said penetrating the local ad market will be an important next step. let's dig into the markets a little bit with lincoln ellis. he is the chief investment officer for strategic financial group. we have one down week now after how many? 3+ weeks of positive gains for these markets. there was already some talk of "maybe the bears are
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out." should that kind of talk go back into hibernation, do you think? - i would be very surprised if there are any bears left given the fact that they have basically been run over on a perpetual basis since november. look, given how far we have come since those lows in november, given the fact that the s&p is up over 20% as we move into the beginning of the summer, it is unsurprising for us that people begin to take some profits here and look to redistribute risk according to what's going on in the environment. - do you see a lot of money still on the sidelines waiting to come in here? and if so, where do you tell people to buy? - it's interesting. fund flows last week really were a little bit troubling, and it could be a bit of a quiver in the bow and arrow for the bears, and that is you saw a very significant push back into the market from retail investors. and to us, that kind of exacerbation, that kind of buying in new highs often will signal some kind of near-term top. - so where are the opportunities? - we continue to be defensive
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at strategic for reasons that suggest margin compression and valuations could be compressed and stretched concurrently. so, for us, continuing to look for dividend-paying stocks continuing to yield more than the 10-year treasury. even utilities, to some, look attractive, and of course, a long-term thematic force for the year is the energy space. - and in a nutshell - we're into the summer months now - what is your prognosis for the next three months? - well, a little bit of uptick in volatility, a little bit of investors repositioning themselves based on what the fed has been saying they may or may not do in terms of tapering. so, it might actually be a little bit more fun this summer than in has been this spring. - it is a good day to be trading. we had a good weekend behind us. lincoln ellis, you have a good day out there on this tuesday. - you bet. thanks bill. boeing says problems with its
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787s' lithium ion batteries overheating and in some cases catching fire are contained. as more airlines return their planes to service, our cover story looks at whether "contained" is the same as "fixed." boeing's answer to overheating lithium ion batteries aboard its 787 airliner is to contain battery cells in a stainless steel box, with more space in between the cells to reduce the chance that overheated an cell could cause a chain reaction, potentially overheating the entire battery in what's called 'thermal runaway.' - would you feel safe flying in a 787? "yes. they've done their best to prevent thermal runaway from happening in the first place." boeing has also modified the charger to power down the batteries and added a titanium pipe to vent gasses from cells that overheat to the outside of the aircraft. "it vents nasy gasses and is a safe way of treating it." said al-hallaj, who developed a lithium ion powered air- conditioning system for the
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defense department while he taught at illinois institute of technology 15 years ago, developed a block of graphite and wax to absorb heat and prevent thermal runaway, technology now used to run scooters and store solar energy. - is containment safe? "yes. it's like early automobiles - gas fires were a huge problem, but we managed to deal with it, and it's satisfactory for now." the faa lifted its grounding of the roughly fifty 787's in service last month. boeing's president calls the modifications a comprehensive and permanent solution with multiple layers of protection. but elton cairns, a battery technology specialist at the lawrence berkeley national laboratory, says he's "shocked that boeing was willing to stake its reputation on these batteries," citing an internal chemistry that he calls "far too volatile." the lithium ion batteries on the 787 are part of the plane's back-up system, called into service when the plane is on
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the ground. but in at least one of the instances preceding the investigation, acrid fumes during an all nippon airways flight filtered into the plane's cabin, causing an emergency landing. what's old is new again. consider procter and gamble: last week, the consumer products company announced it had replaced ceo robert mcdonald with former ceo a.g. lafley. mcdonald told vendors that "too much attention" had become a distraction, and it was time to change that dynamic. now, the company will focus on increasing sales. bill ulivieri of cenacle capital management expects the stock to deliver returns, but slowly. "these large-cap companies move slowly, the ship turns very slowly. and even as they begin
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unlocking value, you have to keep your expectations in line for what type of stock it is. it's not target, it's not heinz corporation. procter and gamble is what it is, and that's the beauty of the company." ulivieri notes that p&g is doing particularly well in emerging markets. the future of lois lerner is in the hands of the house oversight committee. the irs suspended lerner from her position as director of exempt organizations. she held the job while the agency filtered applications for tax-exempt status for words such as "patriot" and "tea party." lerner defended her actions last week, saying she had not broken laws or agency regulations. ken corbin, former deputy director of the tax return unit, is her temporary replacement. some have called for her permanent removal from the irs. the house committee plans to call her back to testify, possibly as early as this week. it's official: news corp. is
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splitting in two. the stock rose friday after it was announced that the conglomerate will split its publishing arm and entertainment business. the plan had been talked about openly for about a year. rupert murdoch will be chairman and ceo of both companies. the target date for the split is june 28th. top retailers are suing visa and mastercard over inflated swipe fees. macy's, target and 15 other retailers are opting out of a $7.2-billion settlement that would have ended litigation against the card companies. instead, they're suing. other retailers, including jc penney, kohl's, and tjx companies, say the settlement is "inadequate" and protects the card companies from future antitrust lawsuits. visa and mastercard are not commenting, but have said in the past that they're confident the settlement will get final court approval. here's a way to keep the shelves stocked: tie executive pay to keep the shelves full. that's the way it may go at wal-mart. bloomberg earlier reported that a reduction in workers had made it harder to keep stores fully stocked, something shoppers like to see and something wal- mart was known for. with in-
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store sales slipping, the word from headquarters is now "keep 'em full, or else." specifically, if managers and certain executives can't keep store shelves brimming, they may have their pay cut. that's one of several compensation metrics that'll be voted on at the annual meeting on june 7th. federal budget cuts are hitting where it hurts. the $85 billion in cuts have had the biggest impact on the poor, sick and elderly. legal aid, school programs for low-income kids, and meal services for seniors are laying off staff and pulling back on spending. medicaid and food stamps will not be affected. the spending cuts were supposed to be equal across the board and affect all income levels, but reportedly some top-level federal employees are still receiving bonuses this year. did you have to fill the tank for the holiday weekend? it shouldn't be as painful the next time you do so. with summer's opening holiday behind us, prices are now expected to drop. a quote from aaa: "we think prices have reached their peak."
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new numbers find that many americans are ditching their ride. the number of american homes without a car is now 9.3%, up from 5% in 1991. while younger americans wait longer to start driving and pass on buying their own set of wheels, the study finds many older americans don't want or need a personal car. the trend is expected to continue with the growing popularity of car- sharing programs. americans are back to loving the luxurious life. spending on luxury brands is ramping up after falling during the recession. sales on high-end clothing are expected to pop 5 to 7 percent this year. those numbers will be helped in part by tourists. foreign shoppers head to the states as luxury brands continue to expand into new markets. still to come, why social media have become the divorce lawyers' friends. that's later in the show.
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over time, you feel like you're breathing through a straw. it's the 4th leading cause of death in the u.s., and it took my grandmother. if you're over 35 and have ever smoked, you could be at risk. the good news is, you can improve your symptoms. i'm danica patrick, and i drive4copd. join the movement at drive4copd.com. take our screening questionnaire today, and talk to your doctor. the millennial generation - these are people mostly in their 20's - i think you might as well call it the "debt
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generation." their average debt load? it's about $45,000, and there they are at their lowest income-earning years, if they can find a job at all. for these debt-burdened grads just starting out, they need to be smart about their finances. david diehl knows about that. he is the director of graduate business programs for aurora university and aurora university online. you also teach accounting. you must see these kinds of kids in your class all the time. - i do. these students are concerned about meeting their obligations and also maintaining the level of learning to which they are accustomed. - let's go through it, you've got three points that millennials need to observe: #1, they should live *beneath their means. - that's absolutely right. stanley and danko wrote a book called "the millionaire next door" in 1996, and one of the things that they argue in their book is that most people who have been financially successful spend less than what they earn. by doing so, you have money left over to invest, and that provides them with security, income, and opportunity. - number two - this is important in my book: to save
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and invest early. these are the kids that can take the greatest advantage of that beautiful thing called compound interest. - absolutely. a student who leaves college and immediately begins investing will actually have twice as much money at the retirement age as a student who waits 20 years to begin investing and invests double the amount of the first student. - wow. what did einstein say about compound interest? - einstein said that compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe. - also, your last point is, these days, a house is a home. it is not necessarily your greatest asset or investment. - that's absolutely right. for many years, people thought that the home would be an important part of their wealth plan. but, the past five or 10 years have taught us that the rules have changed. so what we know now is that the home is a place to live, and you should invest in a home that you love and want to live in. but don't necessarily think of it as a way to save for your future. - yeah. for a lot of people, the best idea is to rent for a while, too.
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hit a landmine when i came here, i couldn't move. [male announce david was broadsided on the highway. they weren't very hopeful that he would survive at all. [male announce their traumatic brain injuries have yet to heal. the way i describe it is you're just afraid. am i going to start forgetting things? [male announce tbi is as serious as any battlefield injury. thankfully va has made important advancements in tbi so if you think you or a veteran you know has sustained a brain injury, get screened.
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watch what you "say." i'm talking about your social media communications. because, in a court of law, they can, in fact, be used against you. consider the modern day divorce case: twitter, linkedin, certainly facebook - all these electronic means we now use to communicate, they provide a trove of potential evidence in support of, but, more
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dramatically, to undermine a spouse's fidelity to the marriage vows. gemma allen is a partner in the firm ladden & allen. how common is this now? - it's everywhere. they say 65% of divorce cases use social media somewhere in the evidence, or actually as the cause of the divorce. so, it's everywhere. - this is the question everyone wants the answer to: give me some examples. - well, the examples are replete: the husband who says he has no money, but he should be the custodial parent, you get a facebook picture of him drunk, surrounded by expensive bottles of liquor with his friends, partying. it looks really bad in a custodial dispute when you pull that picture up and it's evidence. it is admissible, we can use it, we can do background checks on people, we can find out things about people. for example, they are saying they can't work, they don't have a job - you go to linkedin, and you see their sterling comments about themselves all over an online biography. - or pictures of them mountain climbing in south africa. and
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certainly the affairs that can go on that spouses can use against each other... - we say facebook is divorce's friend, because, first of all, people connect with old loves, they connect with new loves, and then they leave evidence all over facebook of either one of those things. so, it actually is a method of investigating that we never had before. people are reporting on themselves. - gemma, what about any sense of privacy with your personal, private communications? - you know what, i have an expression, which is, our privacy ship has not only sailed, it was pirated. it's gone. and we as a country didn't really say much about it. we just sort of let it all go. but now your picture can be taken, any notes you have made on facebook can be used. e-mail - oh my gosh! people think of e-
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mail as a phone call. e-mail is a written document and can be used in a court as evidence against you. - how do they get access to this? is it a matter of a court allowing it through subpoena to- - well, facebook is public access. i can go on your facebook- - but wouldn't people erase all the incriminating stuff? - they don't. they don't. they actually forget. they seem to forget the connection between their social- - but even if you do, is it still accessible? - we could get it. we could get it. we would have to get hold of the computer. and even if people think they have deleted material online, obviously, with a good drill-down by an investigator, you can go into the hard drive and get that material. so, it has been used in major corporate cases, it has been used in divorce cases. it's everywhere, and people forget. they just let that facebook message go. - as i said, watch what you say. - right. - all right, gemma, thank you so much. - thank you. one of the retail companies that will be reporting today is tiffany. is that perhaps a good
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breathing becomes a real struggle. copd stands for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, but you may have heard of it as chronic bronchitis or emphysema. over time, it makes it harder and harder to breathe, until you feel like you're breathing through a straw. copd is the 4th leading cause of death in the u.s. it kills one person every 4 minutes, and it took my grandmother. an estimated 24 million americans are affected, but as many as half of them don't even know it. it's a race against time to spread the word about this serious disease. if you're over 35 and have ever smoked, you could be at risk. the good news is, there are steps you can take to improve your symptoms. i'm danica patrick, and i drive4copd. take action today to breathe better tomorrow. join the movement at drive4copd.com. take our screening questionnaire today, and talk to your doctor.
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buy? let's talk with the big brain behind keene on the market, andrew keene. so, retail has been hit a little bit lately. why do you think this might be a good purchase? - as the stock market continues to go higher, there are two things that are really leading the stock market: home sales and retail sales. if we look at the retail stocks that had earnings just last week, we saw them all sell off on earnings. not 50-50, every single one. we saw sears sell off, we saw ralph lauren - that's high-end retail very similar to tiffany's - also foot locker, gap stores all sold off on earnings. so, i think that it's going to sell off on earnings; however, it might be an opportunity to get in. the chart looks very strong over the last three months. it has a very similar chart to most of the retail stocks and the s&p 500 futures. it has gone up almost parabolic. it has a recent sell-off, so i am kind of in a wait pattern. at this $71
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level i might want to get in, but i want to see it consolidate if it does after earnings. - this is a very pricey stock though, or at least it is a pricey company that appeals to a very small segment in society. why do you feel that this has upward potential? - this is high-end retail, so they have a big exposure to china. in the past they have reported poor sales because of china, so it is linked to the global growth story as well. like you said, this is high-end retail, very similar to a ralph lauren. however, retail sales have been very strong. it seems like the consumer is coming back. the more the stock market comes back - 401(k)s, iras - people are going to buy more. - you are a "fast and furious" fan. i guess you perhaps saw that movie this weekend. but you had your eye on lionsgate as another possible good buy. - yeah, last time i came on the show i was talking about airline stocks. lionsgate and imax look like the best stocks. the chart looks so, so strong. that $28 level is a very important level. it has tested it a couple of times. i think it will break through there on earnings. they have "hunger games 2" coming out, so i think they are going to report a
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strong quarter. this has a measure-move target up to $31. i am going to be playing it through the options market. - the studios have had a lot of trouble - sony, the big names. what is lionsgate? are they more of a production company? and why did they fare better than the overall big studios? - all the media has been on fire lately. if you look at how the media stocks have performed on earnings - very, very well. viacom; disney, comparable on a bigger scale to lionsgate; cbs - all the media stocks reported strong earnings, so i think lionsgate will report strong earnings as well. i think anticipation of this "hunger games 2" will make the stock rip even higher. - well, for the summer months, with all the blockbusters coming out, there is certainly going to be a lot of busy activity going on at the movie theaters. andrew keene, thank you so much. - thank you. that's our show for today. we hope you'll join us back here tomorrow. we'll discuss changes at the top, and why the party may be over in many corporate boardrooms. from all of us at first business, we wish you a great day.
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