june swoon, or is the summer sell off in stocks just getting started? in today's cover story, the farm bill falls flat. what it signals for immigration reform. and, fitness forecast: a sector of the economy that's really "working out." plus, the buzz on why your starbucks tab is about to become more expensive this week. and a viewer wants to know how to build up his portfolio. first business starts now! you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning! it's monday, june 24th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: traders will look for technical turning points in the stock

market that could mean a break out or breakdown. the dow & s&p bounced after two sessions of heavy selling, but the blue chips remain under 15,000 and the s&p 500 below 1,600. the nasdaq was held down by oracle, which lost 3 dollars following an earnings miss. oracle and microsoft are revealing details of a new partnership today. oracle ceo larry ellison promises a startling series of announcements. relief at the gas pump is coming to the midwest. repairs and maintanance to refineries owned by bp and exxon will have gasoline flowing again. and reports surfaced friday paula deen's career at the food network is cooked. reports say her contract will not be renewed following racial slurs. phillip streible of rjo futures joins us on this monday morning to take a look at the week ahead. good morning to you. - good morning to you. - is the summer sell-off here, phillip? - if you look at the equities,

we saw a 530-point drop in the dow last week. we saw the s&p breaks some key moving averages. i think it really is. - what about margin calls? what do you anticipate? - well, what we are probably going to see is, with a high volatility, the cme group, the imx, these exchanges, they are most likely going to increase margin requirements on products like gold, silver, crude oil, a lot of these currencies, big moving products to make the products more in line with the amount of money you should have in your account in order to control them. so, i anticipate that margins get hiked, and margin calls start to come in. - it all just feeds off itself. what about the breakdown in bonds, phillip? - well, we are starting to see those yields really move higher, especially the 10-year and the 30-year note. the big problem is that bernanke indicated that he's most likely going to start tapering off come september. we're going to end the q/e by 2014. so you are

starting to see that yield curve really wrench itself up, and i expect the yield to continue to climb. - what is that telling you about the economy? - they're anticipating that the economy is getting a lot better. but, if you look at the real data, there has not been a lot of growth, not been a lot of inflation. but they must anticipate that, going forward in those several months out, that the labor force picks up, that housing picks up, and that the economy really starts to just grow. - thank you for your thoughts today. phillip streible, rjo futures. - thank you. the farm bill was expected to pass - instead, it got plowed under by house republicans, who imposed more cuts and stricter requirements for food stamps than the senate version, and more than house democrats could stomach. our cover story looks at - what now? commodities traders such as jack scoville hope the farm bill is revived. "we had a good farm bill a week ago. i think we've got to go back to the senate version. that had support on both sides of the aisle." supporters of the farm bill say it failed when house republicans went beyond the senate version, cutting food

stamp programs deeper and adding more restrictions on food stamp recipients. crop insurance guarentees was another rallying point for opponents. "somehow, some way, there has to be a safety net. if not, grocery shelves could be empty." shonda warner runs an asset management company that oversees more than a dozen farms and 60,000 acres of corn, soybeans, wheat, rice and other crops. she and wade harrison supported the farm bill that would have cut direct payments to farmers and would have promoted conservation. "i would like to see something by the end of the year. it affects farmers mentally, how much they can put into it." citizens against government waste called the farm bill's defeat "a major victory for taxpayers and consumers." but the current farm legislation

does not include spending cuts that the house vote rejected. it has lobbyists shaking their heads and wondering what sort of compromise may lie ahead for immigration reform. immigration reform appears to be getting more bi-partisan support. the bill's sponsors announced a deal with republicans to double the number of border patrol agents to 40,000. senate democrats say the bill now has 60 votes, and is closing in on their 70-vote goal. former enron ceo jeff skilling could be a free man as early as 2017. a federal judge has cut skilling's 24-year prison sentence to 14 years. he could be eligible for another 4-year reduction for good behavior. as part of the agreement, he'll drop his ongoing appeals and give up claims to the $40 million seized by the government after his indictment for enron's collapse in 2001. skilling's settlement with the government means the enron

matter is "all but closed." "i think the doj was just tired. i think they've been dealing with this case for 10 years, and i think a lot of the people that originally prosecuted this case are gone. i think they want to move to something else now. there's going to be no bang for the buck to continue to beat on jeff skilling." skilling has served more than six years of his sentence in a colorado facility. traders and economists are keeping a close watch on the credit crunch in china. interest rates in the asian nation spiked to record highs last thursday as the central bank seemd to signal it would not continue pumping cash into the financial system. short-term interest rates eased friday after the bank of china, the country's largest lender, issued a statement on its website that it did not default on its interbank payments. all the while, in the u.s., people in the finanical industry are debating whether china is headed towared a crisis similar to what happened here in 2008. "so what you're seeing is a funding squeeze brought on by keeping projects afloat and the fact that the banking sector is

strapped. so that's what we're dealing with right now. and if that's what gets out of hand, then you can have the hard landing a lot of people are calling for." that was tim mulholland of china america capital. he adds that china's central bank did not continue with its cash flow because real estate prices in china are rising. back in the u.s., encouraging news is coming from the labor sector. for the first time in almost 5 years, unemployment has dipped below 9% in the state of california. in may, the golden state logged in a rate of 8.6%. according to the labor department, california and west virginia had the steepest declines in unemployment during the past 12 months. states with the current highest rates are: nevada, illinois, mississippi, rhode island and north carolina. americans are still playing catch-up with their savings accounts. nearly 5 years after the recession began, bankrate finds that fewer than one in four americans has an adequate emergency savings fund, while 27% have zero savings. "wages are stagnant, household

expenses are creeping higher, and so as a result, people just don't have a whole lot of spare cash lying around to where they can really ramp up savings. they may realize the need to do so, but are having difficulty actually accomplishing it." that was greg mcbride of bankrate.com, who says that the biggest hindrance to savings growth is stagnant wages. starting tomorrow, starbucks is raising prices on some of its coffee drinks by as much as a dime. it's the first price hike in nealry 2 years, and will apply to roughly a third of its drinks. the coffee chain is making the move after analyzing its pricing structure. the hike is despite falling costs on coffee beans. darden restaurants is counting on dinner deals to prop up earnings. fourth quarter profits fell, but revenue beat estimates. it's hoping cheaper menu items at its olive garden and red lobster chains will lure customers and drive up profits by the end of the year. darden dropped over a point to $50. meanwhile, carmax first-quarter profits were up more than 21%. used cars and better consumer

credit drove up sales. carmax traded up after the open, but closed down slightly at $44. another united 787 dreamliner flight has been diverted, this time for oil issues. a flight from london to houston was re- routed thursday to newark, new jersey, due to a low oil indicator. earlier last week, a 787 flight from denver to tokyo was diverted to seattle due to indications of oil filter problems. both planes landed normally. united is working on the problems and says the jets will fly again soon. airline passengers hoping to power up devices on flights will have to wait a few months. the faa is expected to relax rules on using electronic gadgets on low-altitude flights. details are still being worked out, and a decision is expected in september. if the faa eases restrictions, some devices, such as e-books, could be used at all times. however, cell phone calls are still off- limits. a high-flying ipo is running into turbulance. gogo provides wi-fi on commerical airliners. the stock priced in at $17, but fell one dollar in its debut out of the gate on friday. shares could climb if the faa

loosens restrictions on in- flight gadgets. in other ipo news, cdw opens for trade thursday. the software company plans to raise $600 million with shares trading in the $20-23 range. and noodles & company goes public friday. it's predicted to raise $77 million at $13 to $15 per share. kodak has a new focus. the camera company has reached a financing deal with some major wall street firms. it now plans to transform its business into a commercial imaging business. the $695 million loan package will help it pay off some of its debt associated with bankruptcy. it's expected to officially exit bankruptcy later this year. hollywood's loss of "sopranos" actor james gandolfini has prompted a sales spike. the actor died suddenly last week of a heart attack in italy. dvd and instant video purchases of hbo's hit series are reportedly surging on amazon and itunes,

though out of respect, neither outlet is releasing any numbers. a shakeup is happening at warner brothers. deadline.com reports the film studio's president, jeff robinov, is the latest to be fired. he has hired an attorney to negotiate his departure. the incident follows the record-breaking june opening of the latest superman film. sources say robinov did not attend the studio's celebration of the box office smash. still to come, fitness boutiques are getting a boost of energy in the marketplace. that's later on. but first, you may have noticed linkedin has done some remodeling. we'll navigate the new changes with bill moller, straight ahead.

linkedin - as a tool to promote, to recruit, to grow a business, it is now the go-to social media networking site for businesses large and small. but a lot of employees and employers are still not all that clear as to what the rules of engagement are with linkedin. jd gershbein knows all about it. he's ceo of owlish communications, which advises clients large and small on best practices for business use. now, i'm really confused of late, because there have been so many changes to linkedin. i

assume a lot of users are. - that is the one constant on linkedin: change. and the changes are moving linkedin from more of a static site to more of a dynamic, results- oriented, activity-focused site. - now, let's say i'm an employer. how do i best use linkedin? - if you're an employer, you are into finding and retaining key people, so you're out there mining the talent field. and sadly there are so many people who need employment, who need jobs. they're on linkedin, and they are marketing themselves on the site. - yeah, because job seeking, that was the original plan for linkedin, wasn't it? - and it seems to be going back to those roots now, bill, because you have more job- seekers being creative in their job search. they are networking their way to opportunities. - am i wrong, but it seems like linkedin is looking more and more these days like facebook. - they are borrowing heavily from facebook, they are borrowing from other sites - linkedin is a true two-way communication platform, and it comes down to how you manage your interactions in trying to put yourself into meaningful conversations that can drive

your business goals forward. - how do you wade into it? you look at all these links and faces and profiles, and you can see that there must be some way to use it, but it's intimidating to a lot of people. - somehow you have to find a place for yourself in linkedin society, and that is the greatest challenge for a lot of people who don't acclimate into linkedin culture. they see what's going on on the computer screen, but for some reason, they can't inject themselves into the scenarios. achieving on linkedin does require some intuition, some insight, and the ability to drive conversations forward. - and a little experimentation, too. let me ask you about the unsolicited connections that keep coming forth of late. who are all these people that want to become friends of mine? - your guess is as good as mine, because i am not immune to that as well, and i see more and more people finding me through some way - perhaps connections in common, perhaps on the people that i might know feature. i am getting invitations that don't speak to why a connection is valuable. it's a default, standardized invitation, not personalized. how can that possibly drive a relationship? - the best advice might be: don't accept those invitations. - case-by-case basis.

- all right, jd gershbein from owlish communcations, thanks so much. - my pleasure. thank you, bill. comiing up, why small fitness centers are gaining strength. first business continues, right after this.

the $26 billion fitness industry took a hit during the recession. but now it's racing its way to a recovery with fitness franchises. jackie keenan reports from florida. just two years ago, 27-year-old shannon o'brien was stuck behind a computer at a corporate

job. now, she's pushing the bar in the fitness world, as she's traded her business suits for yoga pants. "it's always been a dream of mine to open my own business." o'brien just opened five months ago a pure barre, one of the many popular fitness franchises breaking onto the scene. the concept uses the ballet bar as the tool for toning and squeezing your way to an athletic physique. the pure barre franchise started in 2009, and now has more than 130 locations across the country. it's opening at least 60 studios this year. o'brien says classes are getting more and more packed as they figure out what works with marketing. "we do a lot of social media, a lot of word-of-mouth, which is great. we do a lot of referrals. we just try to get the word out as best we can." - but toning and squeezing may not be for everyone. luckily, there are many fitness franchises coming onto the market, so there's bound to be one for you. fitness franchises like pure barre are racing to open and are bringing the fitness industry back in financial shape. the fitness industry took

a hit during the recession, but now revenue is set to rise 2.5% in 2013, with profits increasing close to 9%. a motivation by americans to get healthy, along with a recovery putting more money in people's pockets, are the reasons consumers are flocking to these franchises that have diversified the industry. orange theory is another franchise on the move. unlike pure barre, orange theory attracts those who want to run, row and sweat. terry blachek helped found the orange theory concept and owns three franchises. he's been in the fitness industry for more than 25 years and says the days of the generic gym being the only player in town are over. "there's a lot of small fitness concepts that are coming to market. you see people migrating from the big-box gym, which is the middle of the market, to either the cheap fitness, or they begin to go into what i call the niche

market, very niche boutiquey, where everyone knows your name, you get more personal service, more personal results. what we're finding is people want to be a part of a small group." that smaller group is what attracted melissa walters to pure barre. she loves chit- chatting with new friends and has fully adopted the pure barre lifestyle with gusto, as she'll most likely be the first at this location to attend 100 classes. "everyone kind of comes on a consistent basis, so even though the first time you come you don't know everybody, over time you definitely get to know everyone, which makes it more like a home." for first business news, i'm jackie keenan. orange theory and pure barre charge up to $20 per class, and monthly memberships can cost more than $100. don't go anywhere! up next, a viewer wrote in asking about whether to buy or sell homebuilding stocks. the answer is next in chart talk.

today in chart talk, we are answering a question coming in from one of our viewers. joining us now is james rameli. he's with keeneonthemarket.com, and he is here to help us out. good morning to you. - good morning. good to be here. - here is a question from jack, who lives in tennessee. he says, what do you think? what should he do with this stock? - let's talk about what the temporary pressures are on this stock. actually, the main one is the volatility in the bond

market. if interest rates go up, mortgage rates go up, fewer people can afford new homes, and home builders' profits should fall. we should see this stock turn around once we see some more stability in the bond market, and once we get some more information about the taper. homebuilder confidence is at a multi-year high, so i don't think the housing sector is down and out quite yet. - you're a trader, you're a smart guy - would you hang on to this stock? would you buy more? what would you do specifically? - what i would do is collar this stock off. it's a strategy called a zero-cost collar. i sell the $42 calls to buy the $30 puts in january. this is going to cost me no money to put this trade on. i am protected anywhere below $30, and i still have upside up to $42. so i no longer participate in any move above $42, but i do give the stock some room to run, and i am protected, for no initial money down, all the way through january. - then again, the price could rise if more people are out there buying homes, correct? - exactly.

- james, thanks for your help today, and thanks, jack, for writing in to us. coming up tomorrow, an explosive report on how disabled workers are being exploited by working for pennies per hour. we hope you will join us. from all us at first business, we hope it's a great week ahead!

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