as the new quarter begins, the surprising investments money managers are making. in today's cover story, rates on student loans are set to double today. what that means for the future of paying for college. plus, bubbling up: is another housing crisis in the works? and, gas prices are getting ready to shoot for the stars this fourth of july. first business starts now! you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning! it's monday, july 1st. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: it's a new day: investors will hope for a turn-around from the june swoon. the the s&p lost 1.5% last month. friday, the dow fell 114 points

- and yet, the dow logged its best first half of the year since 1999. the nasdaq edged up 1 point. the s&p closed lower by 7, and gold gained 22 dollars as oil drifted down 62 cents. for the quarter, oil declined 23% on a stronger dollar. gold posted a recording-breaking loss, gold futures dropped 23%, and treasuries turned in the worst performance since 2010. prices fell and yields spiked on fears the fed will pull back on the economic stimulus. scott bauer of trading advantage is here for our monday morning wake-up call. hello scott. - hi there, angie, how are you? - doing well. what's your trading prediction for the second half of the year? - you know, i think in the next month or so, we're going to see volatility pretty much remain at the level it's at right now, which is much higher than it was six months ago. the reason being for that is we're coming into another earnings cycle. i

think a lot is going to be made on what happens in china. we are going to see many s&p 500 companies come out with guidance based on what happens in china. but i think at the end of the day, we will see the market higher than where it is now. i don't think we're going to see another 12%, 13% from here to the end of the year, but i wouldn't doubt if we're back up into the high 1600s or 1700 on the s&p, and, you know, i think by the end of the year, economically, things are going to be very good here. - as gold trends lower, there are some investors big and small who may be trapped in gold and losing money. what's your advice? - unless you are a long-term investor, if you're looking for the quick buck, don't do it. if you are a long-term investor, and you're in here in that $1200ish, i think you're ok. i wouldn't look for a big move over the next couple months either way - when i say big move, 10% move. but i think by the end of the year, i think you do have the opportunity to

see gold either trading below $1,000, or, depending, economically, what happens here, back up toward that $1,500 number. - the market is closed a half day wednesday and the 4th of july. what will the short trading week mean for traders? - low volume, high volatility, and i say high volatility because volumes will be low. and with earnings season really starting the week after the holiday week, traders and the like are going to try to start positioning themselves going into earnings. so i would expect a little more volatility than normal. - thank you, scott - have a great day. a new fiscal year and several tax changes go into effect. so do interest rates on student loans. our cover story takes a look at who's affected, and how much more it may cost you. while congress is mulling over an internet sales tax, several states are imposing their own variations. beginning july first, minnesotans will pay a 6.8% sales tax on internet purchases; iowans, a 6% tax. later this summer, people in

maine will add a 5% sales tax to their online purchases. minnesotans will also see changes to estate and gift taxes. "states and local governments win big in many parts of the country. there's been a big tax avoidance going on." collectively, states say they're missing out on about $23 billion a year in revenue from untaxed purchases over the internet. "as most people know, states are cash-strapped. my home state, illinois, is looking everywhere for cash, so they need to be raising revenue." a lot of big retailers charge sales tax already for online purchases - jcpenny.com, gap.com and many others, for example. but online sales, projected to account for no more than 12% of all sales by 2015, is far from making brick and morter stores obsolete. "consumers that expect to go into a store and touch the material, try it on and buy it then and there, will pay a

premium, and most consumers are willing to do that." other taxes going up - gasoline. in california, maryland, virginia, kentucky, connecticut and vermont. "the fuel taxes, now's the time to raise them, because in the summer, more people are traveling." but elyashar says a gas tax is not a consistant source of revenue. students are facing higher costs, also - not a tax, but the interest rate on student loans is going up. an estimated 7 million students who plan to take out or renew loans after july 1st will find interest rates double from 3.4% to 6.8%. the hike in student loan interest rate does not affect the 37 million americans paying off existing loans. as we mentioned, today marks the start of the second half of the year. people on wall street are leery about whether the economy will pick up steam during the next 6 months. the s&p 500 is up more than 12% already this

year. scott wren of wells fargo advisors predicts an uptick to 1700 in the s&p by the end of the year. "i think that the fundamentals are in place: we're in a modest-growth, modest-inflation environment, and earnings are coming in ok, so valuations are what the market is helping us here. they're below the long- term average, which allows a little bit of upside here, and i think the confidence on a business and consumer level will improve as we move through the year. we'll see the market finish a little higher than where we are right now." wren plans to invest in sectors tied to the recovery, such consumer discretionary, materials and technology. he's staying away from safe-haven plays. close attention will be paid to manufacturing data coming into the market. there are concerns of a possible slump in business activity following the release of the chicago ism index friday. the business barometer showed 51.6. a number above 50

indicates business is expanding. however, it's down substantially from the chicago reading of 58.7 in may, and below economist predictions of 55. economists expect a slight pick-up in business from the national ism number due out today. 50.5 is predicted, compared to 49 in may. bubble trouble could be just down the road for the housing market. home prices have risen dramatically during the past few months, with the largest gains happening in las vegas, los angeles, san francisco, miami and phoenix. the trouble is much of the home buying is driven by investment firms, including firms on wall street. and there are other similartiies... "the bad actors are back - the loose lenders who are in it only for the fees. they have very lax standards. they're around there now and they ignore the cardinal rule of lending: only lend to someone who can pay you back." that was juli niemann of smith moore and company. she adds that lending standards are tougher today at large banks, and there is true demand for homes coming from middle america.

ipo conditions are favorable for companies headed to the public market. the latest to go public, noodles and company, is on track for the best public debut of the year. investors gobbled up shares of the restaurant chain at $18, priced nearly 80% above its projected range. shares doubled in price by the end of the trading day to close at $35.23. noodles trades under n-d-l-s on the nasdaq. buyers are scrambling to buy shares of biogen - stat! european regulators recently gave the exclusive right sanofi's drug for multiple scleosis that is similar to the biotech's treatment of ms. shares bounced more than 6 dollars friday. investors think the ruling from the e.u. could bode well for biogen. analysts warn it does not ensure the biotech comany will gain exclusive rights. blackberry's new phone is striking a sour tone with investors. wall street expected

a third quarter profit, but the smartphone company reported a loss. shares slid more than 27% friday. blackberry forecast an operating loss for the second quarter, called the market highly competitive, and failed to give a clear update on sales of the new blackberry 10. google may be getting into the game with a video console. playing off the success of its android phones and tablets, the wall street journal reports the tech giant is working on a game console that could come out this fall. the company hopes to compete with apple's new products. google stock was up nearly 3 dollars friday. the drama continues to unfold for paula deen. more retailers are severing ties with the food network star after she was accused of using racial slurs. jc penney, kmart, sears and walgreen's are the latest to announce the decision to drop deen's products. a money laundering scandal is shaking up the vatican. a

vatican accountant, a former member of the italian secret service and a broker have been arrested and are accused of trying to smuggle 20 million euros into italy from switzerland. the vatican has agreed to comply with any investigations. pope francis recently pledged to reform the vatican bank, which has been under scrutiny for many years. ceos of the nation's top restaurant chains are taking home some pretty fat paychecks. a new study of pay disparity by the economic policy institute finds the average restaurant ceo made over $11 million a year in 2012. many cooks and dishwashers make minumium wage. at full time, that amounts to $15,000 a year. the study finds ceos make more in a single morning than a full-time cook makes all year. plastic bags are getting sacked. several cities have banned the bags. just last week, los angeles became the largest city in america to prohibit the plastic. san francisco, seattle and aspen, colorado, are among

other major cities. chicago lawmakers are expected to take a proposal this summer. there are also potential plans in new york city. environmental groups say the plastic bags often clog waterways, kill marine life and wind up in landfills. the american progressive bag alliance, however, says the bags account for just 1% of solid waste. still to come, why you may want to prepare to pay more to fill your tank for the 4th of july holiday. that's later on. but first, essential tips for protecting your online accounts. that's next, with bill moller.

estate planning - we know it's so important to ensure the orderly transfer of your assets after you've gone. well, it's no longer just your investments and maybe the precious diamond necklace from grandma. now you have to include your digital assets. blooma stark is an attorney with aronberg goldgehn, and you handle all manner of estate planning issues. what kinds of assets are you talking about when we use that term, "digital assets?" - well, bill, when we talk about digital assets, it includes a lot of things that most people do have. for example, it would include their

gmail account, their other e- mail accounts; it would include any online bank accounts, brokerage accounts; any accounts that they have with online service providers or stores - for example, amazon, ebay, they may have a paypal account- - or facebook, photographs... - yes, all the social media. photos that they keep on their computer or on their facebook or on their telephone. - so there's sentimental value, but there's also practical value, because you need to know passwords for all these accounts. - absolutely. without passwords you cannot access those accounts. with respect to the social media accounts, besides passwords, you might want to decide what you want to happen to those accounts after your death. do you want them to continue kind of as a memorial, or would you want somebody to shut down your account for you? different social media outlets have different policies, and you should check the policy with each one. - you said it's a good idea to have sort of a roar di ftal asst

people know some of these things. - absolutely. i think that's essential. it's essential for all assets. it's especially essential for digital assets, because unless you know where those accounts are and what the passwords are, when you pass, your executor or trustee will not be able to access those accounts without that information. - different companies have different policies about who they allow in- - absolutely. - so is this an area that's new to the law, or are people now understanding how important this is? - well, it's relatively new to the law, and people are starting to understand, especially if they've had any personal experience with somebody dying and then not being able to access their online accounts. so many of us have payments coming out of accounts, and we want to make sure that those payments are monitored, that there are sufficient funds to make those essential payments in

an account. - blooma stark, thank you so much. - you're welcome. thank you, bill. coming up, pesky prices: are we setting up for a painful summer spike at the gas pump? that's next.

americans are putting the brakes on road trips this 4th of july as gas prices remain stubbornly high. the current average is $3.51 per gallon for

unleaded, compared to $3.36 a year ago. joining us now is tom buis of fuelsamerica.org. good morning. i'm wondering what we can expect for 4th of july prices. should we brace ourselves? - thank you, angie, and good morning to you. you never know, because there are always so many excuses on why gas prices go up or down. but generally during the summer driving season, when americans are driving the most around holidays, they seem to be going up. - what are americans telling you about their spending habits as the prices rise? - we just did a nationwide survey, and what consumers are telling us is that because of the high gasoline prices, over 50% of people are going to cut back on the trips they make, whether it's to see family or friends, or to the beach, or to take a vacation, or wherever. about 30% are going to dine out

less this summer. and, believe it or not, 6% of the respondents said they were going to cut back on their air- conditioning use at home, which seems quite severe in this record heat that many places are having right now. - the oil companies tell us that prices are high because of supply and demand, competition and refining problems that are happening. but who do americans blame? what do they have to say? - americans obviously aren't buying the oil industry's line, because 60% of the respondants in this poll blame the oil industry. but they always have an excuse, angie. it's, we've got a refinery down for maintenance, we have a disruption in the middle east... and i think what we are saying out here is, let's not keep all our eggs in one basket, let's create a competitive alternative to fossil fuel. and that's the renewable fuels

industry. we know we can do it, we know we can produce it, we know it's cheaper, we know it's cleaner for the environment. it's american-made, it's american jobs that can't be outsourced. it's better for our national security and our energy security. and consumers save at the pump, which is what they want. - tom, thank you for coming on the show. - thank you, angie, for having me. speeding right along - a trader play on vacation rentals is right around the corner. chart talk is next.

trader andrew keene of keeneonthemarket.com joins us now from the chicago board options exchange. you're here with a trade on a vacation rental stock. vacation - that's a happy thought, andrew. - yeah, a-w-a-y looks great on

the charts. we see a lot of the stock market rolling over to the downside. last week, a trader bought 6,000 a-w-a-y october $35 calls for $1.25. i jumped on this. this was a 3/4- million-dollar bet in a-w-a-y. they have 495,000 rentals online. very, very p/e. with that high p/e comes high growth. also, it's a possible takeover candidate. we saw kayak getting bought out. maybe someone comes after a-w-a-y as well. - is it too late to get into this stock? it's already up 50% for the year... - you know, these internet stocks are high-beta, high- risk, high-reward. that's why i like to trade these through the option market instead of stock. it broke through that $30 level. it had a little trouble getting through $33 last week. recent high is $34.21. i think it goes higher. it's basically the amazon for vacation rentals. only about $75 million in revenue throughout the course of the year, but i think the

stock goes higher. - how much higher, is this the next priceline? - no, i think it gets to this $34 level. if it can break through that $33 level, which it tested three times last week, the next target is $34.20. then if it gets through $34.20, the final target is $38. - we just reported americans are driving less this summer vacation season. does that concern you as a trader? - i'm not concerned about that. 64% of their business comes from the united states. they're starting to expand overseas in south america and china, so going forward that might be a concern. we see the bovespa, which is the brazilian stock market, at two-year lows. also, china looks like it's slowing down. i like that 64% of their business is in the united states. i think the biggest concern is the stock market rolling over. if the stock market rolls over, a-w-a-y, just like every other stock, will go with it. however, it has held up pretty strong, even when the stock market has sold off. - thank you, and have good week.. - thanks, you too. it's time for us to fly out of here for today. coming up tomorrow, an entrepenuer who is in the market for moms. from all of us at first business, have a marvelous monday!

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