stocks get a fresh start as wall street anticipates earnings from corporate america. in today's cover story, the fits and starts of healthcare reform. plus, new financial goals for pro athletes touch down online. and, looking for work? think small. first business starts now! you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning! it's monday, july 8th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: second-quarter earnings are set to begin today as analysts ratcheted down expectations. blackberry shareholders meet tomorrow to get the latest company buzz. blackberry recently reported an unexpected loss despite sales of the new blackberry 10.

mortgage rates eased off some. the 30-year fell to 4.29%. the 15-year dropped to 3.39%. rates rose dramatically above 4% a couple of weeks ago on fears the fed was closer to ending its bond-buying program that's been stimulating the econony. here to give us a glimpse of today's trading action, glen schultz of performance trust. good morning to you. - good morning. - what are you seeing from the big bond funds? are the big guys nervous here? - well what we have seen in terms of the big bond funds over the last two weeks as interest rates have trended up, is we have seen a lot of withdrawals coming out of those funds, and we have seen those portfolio managers, big bond fund managers, out reassuring their clients that the worst, in terms of the upward trend in rates, is behind them. so if we see rates stabilize here, then perhaps redemptions are going to slow or stabilize. if, on the

other hand, we continue to see an upward trend in rates, then redemptions are probably going to continue at their current pace. - what are those average investors doing with their money? - i think what you're seeing in terms of the average investor or the retail investor, you're seeing redemptions out of bond funds, but you really haven't seen the rotation into equity funds. so what we have seen in terms of the equity markets is a downward trend in prices as well as the risk markets begin to reprice on anticipation that there may not be as much support for the federal reserve. so based upon the action in bonds and stocks, it really looks like they're moving to cash. - today starts off another round of earnings. are there any expectations built up in the bond market? - i don't think so. alcoa earnings are forecast to be somewhere between 9 and 11¢. they have been trending down now for some period of time. what the bond market is telling us in terms of the economy is it's about 50/50 as far as the strength of the underlying economy and the acceleration of the economy. so, based on what

the bond market is telling us, i would expect to see so-so kind of earnings - trendline type of thing, nothing spectacular. - thank you glen, and come back soon. - all right, thank you. a new round of earnings reports will have money managers on their toes. as we mentioned, alcoa kicks it off today, reporting in after the bell. other big names this week: wells fargo and yum! brands. there is concern on wall street about the upcoming performance results from corporate america. "i think s&p earnings will be above, if not at, expectations. i don't think the analysts have been really getting robust on these numbers. i think the companies will do well, but i think overall, analyst expectations have been tempered." gjertsen says large-cap stocks have been a relatively safe place to invest, but he sees opportunities in small companies, and he's targeting to two etfs: ticker symobl e-j- r and i-w-m. trade talks between the u.s. and europe begin today on

captiol hill. security concerns between europe and the u.s. had threatened to delay the meetings. following reports that the national security agency spied on e.u. institutions, european officials have asked for more information on u.s. intelligence collecting. the trade agreement is expected to help promote economic growth. some estimates say europe's exports could reach 119 billion euros per year. banks are going to battle over proposed regulations. the commodity futures trading commission has until friday to come up with guidelines on offshore swaps trading by u.s. banks. wall street lobbyists want to delay the deadline, aruging it puts u.s. banks at a competitive disadvantage, but some senators are holding firm, urging the cftc to keep an eye on swaps trades between firms in the u.s. and overseas. swaps and credit derivative trades gone bad contributed to bailouts for aig and big banks. changes are happening at the

commodity futures trading commission. jill sommers will leave the agency today. sommers has been a frequent critic of the agency's handling of regulations following the financial crisis. she also just wrapped up the investigation of mf global, which ended with civil charges against ceo jon corzine for misusing $1 billion in customer funds. cftc chairman gary gensler's term is up at the end of the year, leaving two vacancies for the obama administration to fill. in today's cover story, a change to obamacare will give bigger businesses a bit of a break. penalties for firms of more than 50 who do not offer insurance plans to employees will go into effect in 2015, one year later than originally planned. but the move could cause more healthcare confusion. the change to its signature healthcare law shows the obama administration's willingness to listen to business concerns. "especially for the 50-and- above class, there is relief that it has been postponed. it

gives them more time to communicate with employees and what is required of them by law." but the change can be a bit confusing. so-called obamacare still requires employers of more than 50 workers to offer coverage to employees working more than 30 hours a week. the companies just won't face the threat of penalty fees. "that mandate is still in place, but if a firm doesn't comply with the law, there will be no penalty." for employers, this delay underscores the uncertainty around the details of obamacare. butch zemar consults with business owners on their health insurance plans. "more questions than anything else. clarity. as we move closer and closer, we're waiting for clarity from the government, and they're trying to organize their things like the shop exchange or the regular health insurance marketplace. so there's more questions than anything else as to how things are going to roll out."

this policy shift may also confound workers, leaving them worried about their health insurance options according to richard kirsch. "it's also going to be confusing to their workers because if their workers don't believe their emplyer is required to give coverage, they may think they don't get coverage." looking ahead on obamacare, more still needs to be settled, like those state exchanges which are slated to open up in october of this year. "there are a lot of things that aren't readily available. this could be a sign of more postponement of the bill as we move forward to implementation." so could more obamacare changes be in store? "i don't think anyone will be foolish enough to predict that." despite all the attention this change is getting, it really will not affect that many american workers or employers. only about 200,000 american firms employ more than 50 workers and, 94% of those already offer their employees insurance plans. congress gets back to business today. immigration is among the items awaiting action from lawmakers. members of the house have already made it clear they don't intend to be influenced by the president or the senate bill that was recently approved. one republican congressmen says the senate bill essentialy gives 11 million people immediate legal status. however, the

congressional budget office says the comprehensive immigration legislation passed by the senate could cut illegal immigration into the u.s. in half. the government is falling short in its support of small business. about $90 billion of total federal contracts - or about 22.25% of federal funds - were awarded to small businesses in fiscal 2012, according to the washington post. that's just short of the 23% goal set by congress. it also failed to meet goals for women-owned businesses and firms in economically-disadvantaged areas. it's the 12th year in a row that the government fell short of its own requirements. new york's attorney general is investigating paychecks that come in the form of atm cards. wal-mart, walgreens and mcdonald's are under fire for paying hourly employees with atm style prepaid cards. as companies ditch paper paychecks and switch to prepaid cards, regulators are growing

concerned about fees. charges on those can range from 50 cents to up to $2.25. regulators say these fees take a chunk out of employees' paychecks. bp's payouts for the 2010 oil spill in the gulf are under investigation. former fbi director louis freeh will oversee payments for the deepwater horizon accident. bp claimed the court-appointed administrator approved payouts to victims that were too large or went to companies not affected by the spill. last year, bp set aside nearly $8 billion to compensate disaster victims. tesla is petitioning the white house. the electric car company wants the right to sell tesla models directly from its showrooms in all 50 states. the petition crossed the 100,000 mark, giving it enough signatures to gain the attention of the president. by state law, automakers sell to dealerships. tesla makes and

sells the cars and does not want independent dealers because the ceo believes dealers may not be aggressive in pushing the electric cars. some states have prevented tesla car sales. the saga of its see-through yoga pants now has lululemon facing a lawsuit. a shareholder contends that leaders at the apparrel company hid defects in the too-sheer yoga pants, forcing the firm to sell them at a discount to maintain market share. a lawsuit filed in may accuses lulelemon of boosting possible executive bonuses just before it recalled the pants. researchers say when it comes to facebook, employers are too quick to judge. a new study finds hiring managers tend to dismiss candidates based on negative photos or comments found on social media profiles. however, research found candidates who over-shared on the social network tended to have qualities employers want, such as openess to experience, agreeableness and emotional stability.

starbucks is hoping a new line of soda will bring big profits from its afternoon crowd. some atlanta and austin stores will test the homemade soda as part of a continued effort by the chain to diversify business beyond just coffee. home prices are still upwardly mobile. according to new numbers just out from core logic, home prices rose 12.2% in may when compared to a year ago, and june prices are expected to rise more than 13% year-over- year. pent-up demand and low interest rates continue to drive sales and prices. nevada led the pack with the biggest price increases, followed by california, hawaii and oregon. corelogic releases its next numbers in august. still to come, salary scramble: what you don't know about the hardships nfl players face after the football season is over. that's still to come. but first, more hiring at small businesses in the summer months

to come. bill moller looks at the data, next.

you smell that? it's kind of a wiff of economic improvement in the wind, and it was underscored by the small business scorecard - the record that assesses such things as hiring, payroll and optimism among 10s of thousands of small businesses. michael alter is

president and ceo of surepayroll, which is the outfit that collects all this data. okay, the latest monthly numbers are out. i want to talk to you about what they mean today and looking ahead through the third quarter, that is, through the summer. they don't look very optimistic, because most of the key indicators are down. - right. it's a tale of two periods of time. today they really aren't that great: they're bouncing along the bottom, down 0.1%- - what are the numbers? - the hiring index is down 0.1% month-over-month. the pay index is down 0.1% month-over-month. so really, basically flat. but the good news, or i think the positive thing is that we are starting to see some momentum, and we're seeing momentum in the optimism or the belief among small-business owners that the future is better than it is today.

- now it was 70-something percent last month. what was it for june? - 73% are optimistic about the future. over one in two believe that the third quarter, which we are in right now, is going to exceed their expectations in terms of performance. so when you start to see optimism among small-business owners about the future, that's when they're going to start to hire, because they are going to have this gut feel that the world is going to get better, and they're going to take a little more risk, they're going to add another delivery truck, they might take that second store and open it. so i think you're going to start to see a little bit more growth. so i'm hopeful, as we turn the corner solidly into the end of the third quarter and into the fourth quarter, that we might start to see a little more pick-up than we've seen, at least if optimism is any predictor. - now you talked about, they're expecting the third quarter to exceed expectations. what did the second quarter do?

- the second quarter, for about 80+% of small-business owners, it met or exceeded their expectations. so again, we've got some momentum as we move here into the third quarter and into the fourth quarter. we still have some concerns and some uncertainty around some of the implications of the global economy, what's going on in europe, some of the other things that we're seeing in terms of healthcare reform and how that's going to play out. but, if those things continue to sort of play as they have, i'm hopeful this optimism's going to turn it around. - and we need to perhaps reenforce the fact that it's important, because what small businesses do, really, influences tremendously the economy overall. - absolutely. small businesses account for half of the workforce. they are 98% of all businesses. - michael alter from surepayroll. thanks again. - thank you. thank you, bill. coming up, an organization that's helping high-profile athletes tackle their financial hurdles. more on that, coming up.

nfl players are notorious for taking home massive paychecks. the downside is many often quickly go through their earnings. well now help is on the way. liz davidson, chief executive of financial finesse,

is skyping with us today. liz, good to have you on the show. what led up to paying more attention to nfl salaries and how people were handling their money? - it all started in 2009, when the nfl players' association wanted to help players save more in preparation for a potential lock-out. it has since expanded due to the success. we've had over 1,200 football players use the platform that we provided online, and it has since expanded to include a financial help-line service where players can call and get their financial questions answered. - what are you hearing from players? what are their issues? - they run the gamut. there are issues on budgeting, and that often comes from players that are transitioning out of football and into a different lifestyle. and then, from the rookie perspective, we are

really getting a lot of calls are around, ok, so what do i do now? i have this salary that i never expected. how do i make this work? because i'm paid over 17 weeks, i need to save for the off-season, but then i also want to save long-term and invest long-term so that i am financially secure for life. - you are making the difference then in players' lives, but what about the average person? someone might watch this and think, "well, those guys make a lot of money. it's up to them to get some help." - well, i would say a couple of things. first of all, players face tremendous financial challenges - the one positive is they make a lot of money, but the challenges are immense in terms of 17 paychecks, in terms of getting this money at a very young age and then having to transition to lower-paying jobs. but what i would say for the rest of us is a lot of the principles are still the same. the most important thing, as trite as it sounds, is to save. the most important thing that will make a difference in your life, in building the kind of

life you want for yourself and your family, is to save and to automate that savings, directing it to different accounts for different goals. if you can do that, and then work on having a balanced investment strategy, you put yourself in a very good position for financial security. - liz davidson, thank you for chatting with us. - thank you. still to come, when wall street gets bearish on a stock, is it time to go bullish? chart talk is next.

here to give us a final look at alcoa ahead of earnings, matt cavanaugh of cmz trading. matt, a lot of anticipation for the earnings on alcoa. what do you see in the charts? - the charts don't look so great for alcoa. they broke a lot of their support levels, and there's really not a lot of good news for them. j.p. morgan cut their earnings estimate, they got their credit rating cut - really a lot of bad news. there is this continuing glut

of supply on the market, so expectations aren't too high for alcoa. - right. when you have j.p. morgan coming in and giving a neutral on the stock and a $9 price target just ahead of earnings, not a good sign. are there any entry points to this stock you would watch for post- earnings? - i think the interesting play is actually before earnings. you know, and a lot of this bad news is priced in. pretty much no one is expecting anything good. there's chatter of this company being removed from the dow, which is huge news. so i think that if you take a look at that and say no one is really expecting anything here, the possibility that they could say something that would surprise to the upside is pretty good. that being said, i don't really think the stock is a great place to get in for the long-term. but, just for a trade, it might be interesting to look at on the long side. - what would be your trader play ahead of earnings, then? - either the one thing i would do would be to keep my wrist tight so that would either be to buy a call, sell a put spread, or keep a defined limit on what kind of downside i am going to take. so i think that if you can buy the stock and it

gets back up to $8, $8.25, maybe $8.50, that's a good time to get out of it. - any chance, though, that we'll see a big move to the downside on this? - you know, i don't really think so. their credit rating being cut is a big deal. they are one of the only stocks in the dow in the last 30 years that that's happened to, so that's obviously a big deal. but, really barring some kind of crazy news, i don't see that happening. - matt, thank you, have a good trading day. - thank you. that's it for today. join us tomorrow to find out why small community banks could be losing a grip on clients, and what's being doing to turn the situation around. that's next time, right here. from all of us at first buisness, have good monday.

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