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tv   First Business  KICU  August 9, 2013 4:00am-4:31am PDT

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it's a food-filled friday! find out why the cost of a decadent dish is dropping. in today's cover story, why beef prices are expected to "mooove" higher. plus, as jcpenney searches for a new ceo, is it time to hang up the stock? and, in traders unplugged, our trading pros size up the controversy at lululemon. first business starts now! you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning! it's friday, august 9th. in today's first look: stocks snap back! after two sessions of selling, the dow, nasdaq and s&p rallied as investors picked up shares of fallen stocks such as
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microsoft. gold is back above $1,300 and oil is below $104 per barrel. more questions for jp morgan chase are reportedly coming from the justice deparment. lawyers are asking about bear stearn's mortgage bonds. jp morgan bought bear stearns during the financial crisis. a judge is ordering a stay in the sec cases against sac's billionaire hedge fund manager steve cohen. he's accused of failing to supervise ex- employees allegedly involved in insider trading. and the white house put out late notice president obama will hold a press conference today. on this friday morning, we find chris gersch of altimus capital good to go at cme group. good morning, chris. - good morning, angie. - a lot of interesting things happened in the market yesterday. one of them was gold. gold back above $1,300. is this a safe-haven play, or is something else going on here?
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- angie, it is not a safe-haven play. i believe it's about a two week trade. china came out with some great numbers, and i think it's a brilliant opportunity for copper and platinum, which rallied, to continue to rally. but, in the long-term, i think it's going to come out that the qe3 concerns are going to come back to the market, and it's going to hover around that $1,300 level. it's not a long-term, upside trade. - this is curious: investors, once again, are pulling money out of the stock market, but here we are with the s&p 500 around 1700. what would you do here? - i would definitely take some money off the market. the 1700 level has turned into a psychological level, as seen by the s&p futures pit yesterday, with it butting up against that all day. i think you take some off the table and allocate it into something a little bit more diversified. i think bonds right now are a great opportunity. - and what about priceline? earnings came out after the close. this has been a high- flier. - priceline has been a high- flier, continually beating and having earnings continually show after-the-market rallies of 7, 8%. we really didn't see that yesterday. i'm going to take some off the table. the u.s. worker has not increased their wages, and i think that's their main market, so i'm going to take some of the table in priceline. - short stock? - i would definitely short it
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right now. - thank you, chris. jc penney reportedly is under pressure to find a new ceo. according to cnbc, hedge fund manager bill ackman wants the jcp board to name a new leader in 30 to 45 days. "i would guess that he's just trying to spike the stock so he can get at least somewhat out of his position. that's what i think he is trying to do, because otherwise, if he was actually trying to fix the company, this is not the way to do it." that was maragret bogenrief of acm partners. the news sent the stock 7% higher yesterday. shares recenly drifted to a year low of $12.50. a penney spokeswoman calls the demand for a new ceo "rumor and specualtion." penney has struggled to win back customers after losing ground under the management of former jcp ceo ron johnson, who came from apple. the retailer's sales plunged 25% after johnson eliminated promotions and coupons. we'll have more on the stock later in chart talk. the greek crisis is hitting home. greek prime minister antonis samaras is set to meet with wall street investors
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behind closed doors wednesday. yesterday, the prime minster spoke with president obama at the white house. the u.s. is expected to offer support to greece's efforts to emerge from a wicked recession. the international monetary fund, which has supplied greece with a $319 billion bailout, reports the country is making exceptional progress in stabilizing its finances, but continues to need major changes to its economy, including collecting more taxes. starting august 17th, members of the military won't have to worry about unpaid days off. the department of defense has decreased the number of furlough days from 11 to 6. the furloughs kicked in with the sequester spending cuts at the start of the year. the department of defense says other military spending cuts totaling $1.5 billion offset the need for all 11 furlough days. a privately-held retailer out of grand rapids, michigan, is making headline news. meijer plans to hire 9,000 workers in 5 states. it's in preparation for the back-to-school and holiday selling season. most of the jobs are part-time. hiring
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is actually lower than last year, when stores added 12,000 employees. meijer is hiring in michigan, ohio, indiana, illinois, and kentucky. the nation's largest meat processor, tyson foods, which just reported higher quarterly profits than expected due to a rebound in its beef business, took a further step that may increase the price of beef. effective next month, tyson says it will no longer accept cattle fed with growth enhancers used to increase weight before slaughter. tyson foods told cattle feeders it will suspend its purchase of cattle fed the growth additive zilmax. the company called it not a food safety issue, but a matter of animal well-being. "some cattle had problems walking." the food and drug administration approved the additive, also known as zilpaterol, in 2006. it boosts weight and muscle in livestock. but reports of animals unable to walk meant they could not be sold for human consumption. "it can't be slaughtered for human consumption if it can't walk on its own legs,
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basically." the agriculture department calculates 35 million head of cattle are slaughtered each year. from that, about 51,000 are determined to be unfit for humans for a variety of reasons. tyson, which made its decision after consulting outside cattle and animal experts, described the situation as "significant enough to warrent action," but called it "first and foremost a matter of animal well-being." "this drug does not affect meat. it affects cattle well- being." but cattle futures spiked upward because it is a widely used additive, and, for a time, may result in fewer cattle being brought to market. it drove up corn prices and could raise retail beef prices in the months ahead. "if you're a mother feeding four kids, you're gonna see some consuemr resistance." this comes as hundreds of pig farmers are dealing with the outbreak of a virus deadly to piglets, driving up the price of pork, also.
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u.s. sales at mcdonald's are doing a slow simmer. sales at franchises in america rose 0.7% in europe, asia, the middle east and africa, sales dropped nearly 2%. restaurants in those regions were hit by the outbreak of bird flu and the timing of ramadan. tgi friday's employees are celebrating a welcome change. the restaurant chain was under investigation by the labor department after refusing to re-hire employees who took legal leave. now it's required by law to allow eligible employees to take up to four months of unpaid leave - and be reinstated. tgi fridays is also under fire for swapping cheap booze for premium brands. eight restaurants in new jersey will pay a $500,000 fine to the state for the switch. a pop in crops following last year's drought will lead to lower food prices. food prices hit the lowest level in a year in july. the united nations predicts an abundance of grain on the market could cause another drop in the months
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ahead, especially for cereal prices this year and next. last summer, food price surged as crops whithered in an historic drought. strenghth in the u.s. dollar could also drive down food prices, because it weighs on dollar-traded commodities. it sounds like an oxymoron: cheap lobster. but, prices on lobsters have hit a low due to a glut of supply. many blame climate change, as warmer waters help the lobsters reproduce at a faster rate. fishermen paid top prices in 2005, when a pound of lobster went for $4.63. in 2012, that was down to $2.69. at restaurants such as da lobsta in chicago, owners are enjoying the price slump, but preparing for prices to change. "i'm trying to build a relationship and trust between me and my suppliers, so in the future, if things do shift, there's an appreciation for me being there through thick and thin." as the summer sun turns up the
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heat on electricity bills, programmable thermostats that can be adjusted by smartphones are coming in handy. an energy efficiency specialist tells us changing degrees translate into dollars. "every two degrees that you can go up from your set point - so let's say you usually set it at 74 and you go up to 76 degrees - it can attribute about a 3 to 5% change, depending on how hot it is out, especially in the summer months, on your energy bills. so that's a decent barometer for how much you can expect to save." other tips from bobby difulgentiz: change out air conditioners' filters every one to three months to prevent clogs that make your unit work harder, make sure your home is properly sealed so cool air doesn't leak, and invest in a zoning system that only cools down the rooms you're in most often.
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lots of buzz in the ipo market right now. despite denying rumors of going public, reports say twitter has hired a stock administration analyst. the new hire is said to have handled zynga's ipo. word on wall street is hotel giant hilton is preparing to go public. sources tell the new york times it would likely launch in the first half of 2014. and, fox factory had a strong first day of trading. the company, which makes suspension products for cars, zoomed up 23% to $18.50 after pricing in at $15 earlier this week. fannie mae is following freddie mac with impressive profits. fannie's profits nearly doubled in the second quarter to $10 billion. fannie will make a $10 billion dollar dividend payment toward its $117 billion bailout. freddie this week reported its largest profit to date at $5 billion, and will send the treasury department $4.4 billion for its loan. wall street firms are suing to block "eminent domain" mortgages in richmond, california. richmond is the first city to push for the plan, which sells mortgages to private
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investors at a discount and allows the city to refinance them into new loans. mortgage- bond trusteees say it could cost investors losses of up to $200 million. the honda civic is the only small car to earn a top rating in a new crash test. the civic received a "good" rating. the dodge dart, ford focus and 2 hyundais were rated "acceptable." the tesla model s received a 5-star rating in a different test. tiger woods is financially back on course. crowd sizes are swelling again for the pro golfer, who tees off today at the pga championship. according to forbes, tiger once again leads as the world's highest- paid athlete, earning $78 million in prize money, appearances, and endorsements. woods was knocked down on the forbes list following an explosive affair scandal in 2009. nike's stock is also making a comeback. the company recently sealed the deal on a new contract with woods. still to come, a sector once tarnished that's starting to shine. plus, lululemon critics are in a huff over sizes. can investors breathe easy? but first - you ask, we answer. one viewer wants to know how to get into a legit work-from-home business. the answer - after the break.
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time now for a question from one of our viewers. leshun from
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south carolina writes:
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thank you for writing. and to get an answer, we turned to the franchise king, joel libava: "i think that your viewer is looking in the right direction. i would definitely go with a home-based opportunity. there are several opportunities in the travel space that allow you to work from home. the issue becomes, can your viewer afford to only live on her income as her franchise ramps up? that's the first question, because the money is not going to be coming in right away necessarily. the second thing is, in today's world of limited credit, since the banks are still not really there yet with small business loans - not all the way - does your viewer have access to some
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up-front money? because without any up-front money, it's going to be really, really challenging for her to get any kind of small business loan. home-based franchise opportunities are still going to be in that $30-$50,000 range, total, up-front." as for the second part of your question, you are right - it's tough to tell which franchises and home-based businesses are legit. here's what the franchise king suggests: "if someone says that you can make thousands a month stuffing envelopes, run! don't go buying envelopes at the post office yet. the easiest ones to research are franchises, because part of the process that is involved is you get a list of names, addresses, phone numbers, e-mail addresses of current and even former franchise owners, and you are free to contact them, so you can
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ask the tough questions. business opportunities aren't as regulated. they are not required to give you names, because a business opportunity is not branded. they have different names. each individual owner has a different name for their company. it's a lot harder to research." he really stresses doing your research and homework. in both cases, i would suggest contacting consumer protection agencies, the better business bureau and then calling people who have actually bought into these businesses. we hope you find work that fits your talents. if you have quesitons or comments, feel free to reach out to us via twitter and facebook, or by email at comments@firstbusinessnews.com. you can also call us at: 312- 660-8377. coming up, a trader tells us if he thinks it's over for jc penney stock. and, are mcdonald's employees winning the wage war, and will it mean losses for investors? traders unplugged is just around the corner.
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the stock jocks are at the ready for today's traders unplugged. joining us from the floor of cme group, alan knuckman and andrew keene. good morning! topic number one: tick tax talk - will the stock market tick up on all this talk about tax reform? - what's really interesting is that in america, we've got the lowest effective rates or middle-of-the-pack effective rates as far as corporate taxes go, but everybody complains about the headline tax, which really, i don't think, has hurt profitability. - that's why you see a lot of the tech companies - microsoft and apple being a couple of them - keeping their money overseas. apple has all this cash they're hoarding - they actually don't have it. it's in europe. they have to bring it over here. i don't know if this will actually make the stock market rally or not, but there is a big complaint in washington
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about this topic. - topic number two: doing the mcmath on those mcsalaries - word has it that if you double worker wages at mcdonald's, the price of a big mac will rise. what does this mean for the stock? - this is interesting. i read a couple different studies, and some people have said if they double the wages, it wouldn't affect the stock price at all. i don't understand how that's possible at all. if you just do the logistics of the business, if you're increasing the cost, unless you're decreasing the quality of the big mac, it's going to make the cost go higher- - the price of the big mac would go up 68¢- - that's a lot! - it's not catastrophic. - catastrophic? how many big macs do they produce in a year? - this stock... i'm lovin' it! i'm lovin' it here at $98- - i'm actually long in march for this. - $96 is a huge break-out point for march, and it's holding above that, so i'm leaning on that $96 level. look for mcdonald's to make a 25% move- - it's going lower. - 25%. i'm lovin' it. - topic number three: the skinny on lululemon: apparently the retailer is not making a lot of larger sizes. what does this
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mean in for l-u-l-u? - from a branding perspective, it's an interesting choice that they're making. i don't know how it impacts sales, but they only want skinny people to wear their clothes, so maybe that helps the perception. but looking at the stock, the stock's been trading within this range here recently, and it's got a gap at $76. so if it fills in that gap, we can make another move. look for it to trade between $66 and $78 for the last year. a break- out pushes it another 23% higher, so i like lulu as well. - he likes every stock. every stock, "i like it, i like it-" - i like it when they sell off, and then buy them lower! - this is interesting, because we had a topic a couple of weeks ago about abercrombie and fitch. they didn't want any black in the store. now they don't want any plus-size sizes at lululemon. it's actually 30% more fabric, so their costs are going to be higher if they go into these plus sizes. christine day is their ceo. it's based out of canada. she has left. so basically, like when steve jobs passed away, i think it's going to be a couple years until we see if someone can replace her efficiently. - on to your bonus round question now: how long did it take for the stock market to recover from the great depression? - what does "recover" mean?
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like get back to where it was? - i think alan bought it down there. he buys everything. - 9 years. 9 years. - is it multiple choice, or just choose? - i can give you multiple choice. - all right. i'll take the lowest number. - 10 years? - nope. - 15 years? - no. - 25 years? - i pick 9 years. - 10 then. - well, i pick 10. - i'll take the one above it. - it's 25. - oof. that's harsh. - keep in mind you can give us your questions for traders unplugged. just reach
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trader tim biggam is ready to bring it in today's chart talk. good to have you on the show, tim. let's start with gold.
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gold futures back above $1,300. you're not a big buyer of futures, but what would you buy here? - absolutely, gold not only back above $1,300, but the gold stocks, which actually have underperformed gold by a considerable margin here, starting to show some strength finally. so, looking at some of the major names - newmont mining being one, gold corp., and gdx, which is kind of the basket of the gold stocks, finally showing some good upside moves here. i think going forward, gold stocks will actually outperform gold, so, i'd rather be in gold stocks than gold, although i like them both from here. - as for these miners, is that a buy-and-hold, or a trade? - actually a little of both. i think they will get a pop back up probably somewhere 3 to 5%, maybe trim out some of the position. but, i like them as a long-term hold here, especially if they're not already in the portfolio. - we have to ask you about jcp.
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is this dead money at this point? - you have to look at... bill ackman's certainly not having a great year all the way around, here. i certainly think that even given the news today or another shake-up, the stock probably has nowhere to go but kind of trembling down from here. so, i would avoid it, certainly, unless you're really speculative and playing for a very short-term kind of move. - tim, thank you for your thoughts today. have a great friday. - you bet. thank you, angie. coming up next week, chicken run: backyard farming is gaining popularity, but the explosion of chickens is showing up in animal shelters. is it a money-saving venture or "fowl" play? that's it for this week. from all of us at first business, thank you for watching. enjoy your friday!
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