as a government shutdown looms is wall street preparing for the worst? in today's cover story...from wall street to main street ...how apple is making a killer comeback. plus, is the housing market recovery having a negative effect on american's savings. and the sector that's on a hiring spree. first business starts now! you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas good morning! it's tuesday, september 24th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: mild selling pressure in the market.stocks staged a modest sell off as traders took home profits.the dow down 50 gold fell 10 dollars an ounce and oil dipped $1.33 per barrel.

president obama will speak to members of the u-n today. he will likely seek diplomacy in the syria situation. the presdient of iran will also be speaking. the chicago tribune reports citigroup is cutting 1,000 mortgage jobs.and chrysler has filed for an ipo. the company is partially owned by fiat. let's get the ball rolling this morning with michael gurka of spectrum asset management. he 's on the floor of cme group. good morning micheal, it's been a while. > >good morning. > >what do you think is behind most of the buying and selling in the market right now? what are some real market moving catalysts out there? > >clearly the market is still getting a lot of euphoria out of the bag here from the letdown by the fed last week. you saw it in the markets yesterday as the s &p was down. the broad market was down. crude oil down over a dollar and of course metals themselves. so this risk off trade is back on and i think

also the pessimism is starting to grow on the market due to the fact it seems as though interest rates though being lower due to the fed, right now there's an overhang because of the jobs report. as we get near that report for the upcoming month i think the market is trying to price it as much as they could without seeing that information in front of them. as you can see from yesterday's trading, it's all to the downside. > >are there any stocks or commodities that you're eyeing for potential breakouts here? > >in the stock market right now it seems as though a lot of the ship is tilted to one side being euphoric and everytime we've seen the s &p itself trade over 1700, we've been met with a raft of criticism that brought us lower. so right now i think generally speaking you're starting to see a---more pessimism creep into the market or b---profits being taken because it's been a big kind of a bull run. so what do i like right now in the stocks? particularly nothing. and right now what i also like to see is the crude oil market because fundamental reasons being lower demand. watching those rates

and also come off to the downside. > >michael thanks for coming on our show today. > >always a pleasure. we are now seven days away from a possible government shutdown. wrangling between conservative members of the house and the more moderate senate over obamacare continues. the senate is expected to vote tomorrow to strip out a provision in the house-passed bill that de-funds obamacare but keeps the government running. the senate will then send the revised bill back to the house.over the weekend president stressed the need to fight for economic justice while speaking to the congressional black caucus. we must make this country a place where anyone who works hard can earn their way into the middle class. and until we do, we can't let up and we can't rest - no matter how much resistance we get. the federal government runs out of operating money on october first without a new budget in place. by mid-october-- the u.s. will run out of money to pay for bills accrued earlier.house speaker john boehner has said raising the debt limit needs to include spending reforms to social programs. what happens in washington could

have a direct effect on wall street. a prolonged government shutdown has the potential to slow down the economy. matt shapiro president of mws capital joins us now. is it time to worry? or is this just a lot of noise? > >like all those times in the past, it is a lot of noise and the government's not gonna stop, the markets are not gonna stop. the economy's gonna continue to grow.the one thing i point out is remember all these big dramas we had in the past were all just great buying opportunities. > >so is that something you're looking to do? > >absolutely. you'll notice actually, the market's kinda been channeling if you will. it goes down a bit and touches these 52 week supporting levels and then it goes back up to new highs. so, if we have some concern coming into the political negotiations i think actually it's just gonna be another buying opportunity to set up what is continuing to be actually a very strong, technical long-term base. > >thank you for your thoughts.

> >you got it. in europe--the road ahead is paved with overwhelming support for angela merkel. germany's chancellor was re-elected to her third term in office in a landslide vote. now -- merkel must tackle challenges including forming a new coalition government, and lagging unemployment in weaker economies such as greece and spain. european stocks dropped following the election, while the preliminary reading of the euro zone pmi rolled in at 52, a 27-month high. also on the docket for angela merkel, an agressive push for a green revolution. by 20-30 merkel hopes to generate 45% of germany's electricity from renewable sources. investors and the market are reportedly bracing for an announcement from citibank about a big drop in revenue according to the financial times, the bank told investors about a worse-than-expected drop in trading revenue during the third quarter. the times says some investors are expecting that revenue to drop by more than 10-percent. the banking giant will announce third quarter earnings on october 15. citi stock closed down 3% yesterday.

blackberry has a buyer! the smartphone maker signed a letter of intent yesterday.blackberry will be sold to fairfax financial holdings for $4.7 billion --and will go private. fairfax already owns 10% of the company. blackberry's ceo called it an exciting new chapter. stockholders will receive $9 dollars per share in the deal. blackberry recently reported a $1 billion loss for last quarter. a new tablet surfaces on the market. microsoft unveiled its surface pro 2 this week. the new model has an updated kickstand, which may appeal to laptop lovers. it prices in at 899 dollars. for users who are looking for a less expensive device, microsoft updated its original surface tablet, for 449 dollars. it recently cut the price on its first generation of tablets due to slow sales. new models go on sale in late october. there are apple records, such as those produced by the beatles and then there are apple records as in more apple i- phones sold in a launch---ever. our cover story looks at the latter and whether including

china sales makes this a case of comparing apples to oranges. three days after the latest i- phones went on sale, there was still a line that turned the corner around downtown chicago's apple store. "we hit up a couple of other stores. they had no lines but also no phones." "i expected a line. it's the same as last year." many of those in line--gold seekers... the most desired color among the phone's metal cases. "they only had limited number of gold on friday." in the first three days since apple launched its latest i- phones, apple says it sold nine million of them...as much as two million in china.without china, the figures is closer to 7-million. still, nine million combined is a company record. "absolutely terrific launch. nine is above our expectations a year ago and probably above many others." some say the sales are about two million closer to the i- phone 5 than it seems. seven million is the total once you add the initial sales of five

million with first weekend sales in china that began later, in december. overall this weekend's sales are about two million higher. "the street is very happy with these numbers. they're up about 4%." android still controls 80% of the smartphone market. "i'm actually going to be upgrading to the galaxy s4 in about a week." and not everyone chooses to buy the latest. "i've heard a lot people talk about it but you won't believe this--i have a flip-phone, so i'm not there, yet." "i'm good with my phone. got it 3-4 months ago." but this weekend's sales have a boost to those who think apple stock is undervalued--even at 490-dollars. "we still have a $600 fair value estimate. we've been bullish on the stock and we feel good on that fair value." there is more buzz about apple. the ipad 5 and ipad mini 2, which analysts say may launch next month.

boeing mangers have been called to norway to explain continuing technical problems with its 787 dreamliner. norwegian air asked for the meeting after what reuters called a slew of technical issues over the weekend with two 787's jets. a norweigan air spokesperson told reuters that aircraft failed to have the kind of reliability it expected and that something must happen fast to address the problems. boeing says in a statement: "we are disappointed to have issues so early in our 787 operations and are working with norwegian to address them and return each airplane to service in as timely a manner as possible" u-s airways and american airlines agree to extend the merger deadline. each company will now have until january 18th to terminate the proceedings. the earlier deadline was december 17th. the news comes as the two airlines fight a u-s department of justice lawsuit that seeks to kill the merger. that federal trial regarding the lawsuit starts november 25th. if the deal does go forward it will create the world's largest airline.

gm is receiving a ratings upgrade. moody's investors services is raising gm's corporate debt from junk states to its lowest investment grade. the car company lost status with ratings agency when it plunged into financial disarray 8 years ago. to improve it's credit standing now gm is buying back 120 million preferred shares from the uaw's retiree health care trust for $27 per share.the union received the stock after gm emerged from bankrutpcy. gm worked out the stock deal with the uaw during the financial meltdown. tensions are rising in bangladesh -- where protests have forced the shutdown of 300 garment factories. thousands of workers set fire to factories as demonstrations turned violent this week. u.s. brands such as wal mart vowed to improve safety restrictions following a factory collapse in april that killed more than 11 hundred people. now the fight for higher wages is intensifying. workers are demanding 100 dollars a month, more than double their current 38 dollars a month.

there's encouraging news on child labor. -- there are a third fewer child laborers in the world. although the hope is to get to zero. there are still an estimated 168-million children toiling around the world -- in hard labor jobs with more than half in dangerous conditions. the recent update is coming from a new report by the u-n. despite predictions of lackluster sales this holiday season walmart is stocking up on staff ahead of christmas. the world's largest retailer plans to hire 55,000 seasonal workers.that's 5 thousand more than last year.walmart is also promoting 35,000 sales associates from temporary to part-time and 35,000 from part- time to full time. wonder bread is back on store shelves. flower foods --bought wonder from hostess brands.hostess closed it doors not long after filing for brankruptcy in 2012. last summer flower foods completed its $355 million dollar acqusition of hostess breads and bakeries. the flowers company tells reporters its using a wonder

bread recipe from an earlier time. a national sandwich chain will soon offer up slices to investors in the form of an ipo. potbelly expects to raise as much as 82 million dollars with shares pricing between 9 and 11 dollars-- by selling 7.5 million shares. the company will trade on the nasdaq under ticker pb-pb. it hopes to use cash from the offering to pay a dividend and repay debt. potbelly has 280 stores across the nation. and a quick correction on the darden story from yesterday. we should have named gene lee as coo of the company. our sincerest apologies! there's still plenty more still to come on the show... find out which hot tech jobs are in demand and how college students can take a shot at getting hired. plus why halloween is already freaking out some retail analysts. and are gains in the housing industry hurting some

americans? first business continues right after this.

retailers are bracing for potentially scarey halloween sales numbers. this year nrf predicts 158 million people will celebrate the holiday down from the "record" 170 million last year. each will spend

around $75 dollars-- total spending is expected to reach $6.9 billion numbers are said to be down as consumers fear what's next for the economy. the majority of americans believe home prices will rise during the next 12 months. greg mcbride of bankrate.com joins us this morning. 55% of americans say in your latest survey-- home prices are heading higher --do you consider that a positive sign? > >although people's optimism about real estate bodes well for what they are seeing about the economy because real estate is a nice tail wind to the economic recovery, it does make you worry that people may be putting too many eggs into the home ownership basket. particularly at the expense of savings for things like emergencies and retirement. > >do you think people are overly excited about the housing market? > >people have really warmed up to the housing market in a way that they never have to the stock market since the financial crisis. people once again looking at real estate in

many cases as their ticket toward building wealth, and while that is a positive for the economy now, it does raise the concern that some people may be stretching themselves too thin. > >what do you expect for home prices going forward? > >well i expect that home prices continue to march higher, i think going forward, we can expect that pace to moderate at some point. i'm just not sure that we're there yet. because the rise in mortgage rates, if anything seems to have gotten people off the fence, rather than have diluted any real home buying activity. > >thank you greg! > >thanks alot have a great day! coming up...bill moller shows us a great sector with great pay. and later in chart talk...are traders kicking themselves for not buying apple ahead of its record breaking release? find out what at least one has to say. we'll be right back.

important takeaways are coming from the housing crisis.

and, the wall street journal is listing a few. banks made more mortgages last year than any year since the downturn. borrowers are struggling to make large down payments. gaps are growing along racial and wealth divisions. and credit scores rose from 701 to 728 for home loan purchases between 2006 and 2010. coming up bill moller shows us a growing sector with great pay. and later in chart talk...are traders kicking themselves for not buying apple ahead of its record breaking release? we'll be right back. dillinger robbed banks because that's where the money is, but where do you go to find where the jobs are. well, yeah, i-t, but where in i-t? big data may be the place where you should be looking. an article in the chicago tribune recently looked at that. it had all kinds of data on big data. this is reporter becky yerak who wrote about it. what do we mean exactly by big data? > >companies gather all kinds of data. when you purchase

something online that's information that this company has on you about their suppliers. but these days that also includes social media. it includes video. so you have all kinds of additional new data that's out there, and then you combine that with more powerful computing. so companies just have big data. > >and they're trying to interpret it. what does it all mean? how can i learn more about my customer? > >one company that i talked to, they will determine in only a few minutes whether they're gonna make a $10,000 loan to a consumer. they look at something like 24 different data sets to determine that. > >what kind of jobs are they? do they have titles? is it just an analyst? > >these people work in disciplines called business analysts or intelligence gathering. they have kinda high tech sounding titles. but these are also very good paying jobs. > >for example? > >they start in maybe $80-90 thousand for starting salaries and they go up to six figures. > >what kind of degrees if i'm going into college should i be getting? is it statistics for one?

> >the vast majority of these people have masters degrees. so you probably need to get one of those. in the old days they would take people with mathematics or statistics degrees. but now if you have degrees in things like astrophysics or computational chemistry they're looking at people like that---and they're also because of the demand--- they're also looking at people with maybe lesser experience than they used to because of the shortfall in the numbers. > >well, it's all about supply and demand. companies are really scrambling it sounds like then. they have to improvise because they don't have the people they can turn to to give them good analytics. > >yes, career builder they said that this is currently one of the hot hiring areas. and then also mckenzie came out with a report that said by 2018, we're gonna have a shortfall of at least 140,000 people---and that's just these data scientists. and it could be more than a million when you think about the leadership--- the executives who have to know how to interpret this. > >i wasn't very good at math unfortunately. > >me neither. > >becky yerak, thank you. > >thank you.

thanks for the info bill. up next, a trader's outlook on lennar ahead of earnings. what the stock's past performance reveals. chart talk is next.

joining us now is james ramelli of keene on the market dot com. good morning. i have to talk to you about this apple trade because i feel like a lot thinking---if i just would have bought the stock on friday---are you in that camp? > >no i'm not. obviously i would've loved to buy the stock $30 cheaper. however, we saw on monday's open the stock get crushed on the opening---give back almost half of its gains. apple comes out with this iphone number---record sales in iphones but remember the last iphone also had record sales and we see what happened to the stock in the meantime there. they're still hoarding cash. they're still coming out with incremental innovations on all of their products and until those two things change, other than a short term bounce, i play apple short or to the flat side. > >are you impressed by this blackberry news? > >not really. the stock got crushed on friday when they announced they were laying off

40% of their workstaff. i always thought that blackberry could be a potential takeover candidate just because they have a very big portfolio of patents that they value---somewhere around 5 billion. however, this deal being valued at 4.7 obviously those patents aren't worth as much as everyone thought they were. > >lennar comes out with earnings this morning, is that a play you'd like to make? is there any trade there happening for you? > >yes i am trading lennar for earnings. we look at the historical movement on earnings for lennar. we see that the stock has rallied six out of the past eight quarters on earnings day. very strong. pretty good looking chart here. not the best but it is neutral to bullish looking so i do want to play lennar to the upside. the options market is giving me an upside target around37 quarter for october expiration. so i wanna look at buying the 36 37 call spread for around 30 cents. risking $30 to make $70 anywhere above 37 at expiration. > >james, thanks for coming on the show. > >thank you. coming up tomorrow-- on our show tomorrow: the demographic that has huge buying power but advertisers seem to be missing. from all of us at first business, thank you for watching and have an enjoyable day!

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