dramatic events unfold in washington, elevating tension in the market. in today's cover story....its the jobs friday that wasn't. fresh numbers are not out today.. but employers are giving us their take. plus, portfolio play by play. how to handle your money during the government shutdown. plus...in traders should you buy into the hashtag hype... first business starts now! you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas good morning! it's friday, october 4th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: intense times for traders. stocks bounced around thursday on the whims out of washington

concerning the shutdown and debt ceiling debate. then, gun fire erupted in the afternoon. capitol hill was locked down and a suspect was shot after alledgly ramming her car past a barricade to the white house. the vix edged up 6% as anxiety builds. and in the end stocks gold and oil all closed lower. it's official the twitter ipo is a go! the social media site's filing was made public after the close. and mortgage rates dropped again. the 30-year fixed is 4.22% the 15 year is 3.29%. scott shellady of treon joins us now. scott, this market has been drifting down but it feels like an orderly sell off. how much lower do we have to go do you think? > >i don't think much lower and i think this is always gonna be used as a buying opportunity for those that have not gotten in throughout the course of a year. it's been a non- participatory rally. i know that there's still some folks on the sidelines that have kept their powder dry for too long so i

think they're always gonna find a bid underneath and this thing's not gonna get away from us to the downside. > >you were on the show not too long ago and you talked about the treasury trade. we had a pop yesterday. did you get involved with that trade and what's ahead? > >we're gonna let it settle down a little bit because again i still think the 10 year is the truth serum and that's telling us the economy's not doing to well. if anything, i know it sounds crazy, we're gonna get on board and be long treasuries rather than short because we think that that 10 year rate's gonna go close to 2% rather than back up to 3. > >we have no jobs number out this morning but what are some of your fears as we're watching what's going on in washington? > >i think the traders behind me are upset about it. i'm uspet about it. the garbage that's going on in washington right now has caused the market to do some things that it doesn't normally do. as well as has really curtailed the volume. so we'd like to see that stuff get sorted out as soon as possible and we can continue to

carry on the business of finance behind us and actually continue the business of the government moving forward in washington. > >scott, you hang in there. > >alright. a dramatic day in washington. capitol hill is still on edge after being locked down for a half hour yesterday. a female suspect was killed by police after trying to pass a barricade near the white house. a car chase then ensued, ending in gunfire on captiol hill. one officer was injured. the u.s. capitol police chief called it an isolated incident. afterward -- the house returned -- a bit shaken -- to work to pass a veterans spending bill. both democrats and republicans are refusing to budge. in the latest decision house speaker john boehner says he will not allow the nation to default. the fight over the government shutdown is turning to concerns over the debt ceiling. " the longer this goes on the worse it will be. and it makes no sense. the american people elected their representatives to make their lives easier, not harder."

from the white house, to wall street, to the treasury department officials are warning: the economy could go into tailspin if the u.s. defaults on its bills. we turned to money managers at the morningstar's exchange traded funds conference in chicago for thoughts on investing during these turbulent times. "i think in the american economy in the future, even if we go above the debt ceiling, people will be looking for high quality companies - those with sustainable growth, what we call economic motes. those are the businesses you are going to want to own. people are still going to be buying coca- cola,debt ceiling or no debt ceiling." "if you think maybe there will

be a little bit of a sell-off because of the debt ceiling debate, i think that's an opportunity, that if happens, maybe you're in an equity, a balanced portfolio and you get to rebalance off-cycle. maybe if you're adding cash, you take that opportunity to add. but regardless of the political dysfunction, we know one thing: at some point, it resolves itself." "we do believe some markets have some challenges, especially in emerging markets, we have seen, there is some sort of outflow that just happened, but the pensions that we are working with are thinking about more long-term growth prospects." until a resolution comes out of washington , money managers tell us for the most part they are using conservative investing strategies. the labor department's monthly unemployment report is not being released during the government shutdown. despite that, there are indications that job growth continues but the shutdown may affect hiring at the top in the private sector. our cover story takes at look at where we stand so far. right now, career counselors are practically doing cartwheels at

the turnout at college job fairs, recently. this one at the university of illinois at chicago had 115 companies looking to hire...almost 30-more than the number last year. "personally me, i've got two interviews today, am looking foward to it and i'm really excited about the opportunities." "with the increased employers, it's a sign that the job market is better and among students, there is enthusiasm and the expectation that they'll find something, this year." and the number of students, who sought out resume-writing help and coaching for interviews, also went up more than 30% this year. "i personally, have more hand-on experience because i used to work in a bodey shop. i think that's a good still to have." "i actually have interviews lined up for thursday, already." but those who search for talent higher up the corporate ladder, say the d.c. deadlock could threaten job growth. "senior leadership look to the dysfunction in washington and it gives them pause and may delay decisions until they resolve this impasse." this week, payroll company a-d-

p said private employers added 166-thousand jobs. not spectacular. but not slowing either. "already, planners are looking at washington and wondering, 'what damage will they do?' a lot of them are thinking, 'we better be careful.' " another hiring trend at the top, according to boyden's trina gordon---companies are increasingly seeking ceos with a global perspective. they also want those with tranformational leadership skills--to turn a company toward new goals. but ceos also given less time now---about seven years before board members get antsy. drugstore chains are expecting a booster shot from the affordable care act. in january,walgreens, cvs, rite aid and more are bracing for new crop of insured americans who will buy medicines. pharmacy clinics could also become popular options for people choosing low cost coverage.

citigroup will pay a $30 million dollar fine. the new york times reports a citi analyst is accused of offering research information "before" it was made public to s-a-c capital, citadel, g-l-g partners and t. rowe price. the information reportedly had to do with one of apple's taiwanese smartphone suppliers. citigroup says in a statement it takes regulatory compliance requirements very seriously and is pleased to have this matter resolved. the leader of the commodity futures trading commision may be stepping down soon. according to the wall street journal. chairman gary gensler plans to leave by the end of the year. he served during a tumultuous term that included a major overhaul to the derivatives market under dodd frank and prosecution of banks for libor market manipulation. b-p is applauding a partial victory. a federal appeals court ruled more consideration should be given to the terms of b-p's multibillion dollar

settlement. b-p claims it's paying billions in bogus claims. however, one judge on the case called out b-p for trying to change the rules in the middle of the game. b-p agreed to create a $20 billion compensation fund for the massive 2010 oil spill in the gulf. the oil giant responds: "b-p is extremely pleased with the ruling...it affirms claimants should not be paid for fictitious or wholly nonexistent losses." billionnaire investor mark cuban took the stand to defend himself against insider trading charges. cuban currently owns the dallas mavericks. the sec accuses him of dumping his stock in mamma.com-- a canadian search engine company-- after learning confidential information. in court yesterday, cuban told the jury-- he was angry about a development that would reduce the value of his investment, but doesn't remember much else. he also says he did nothing wrong. tesla shareholders are assessing damage after news of a car fire. shares of the electric car-maker dropped 4% yesterday

after a video of a burning model s circulated online and quickly spread like--well, you know. a spokesperson for tesla confirmed the fire started after a large metallic object hit one of the battery packs. crews reportedly had difficulty extingushing the fire. no one was injured. more on tesla stock is coming up later in chart talk. words such as "train wreck" are being used to describe the new "smartwatch" by samsung. the wearable device will be on store shelves later this month. a new york times reviewer calls the watch impressive, but it requres the assistance of a samsung phone or tablet making it pretty much worthless. tech analyst rob enderle offers this reason for samsung's potentially problematic product launch. " they are not used to creating a market..so the end result was they tried to throw everything but the kitchen sink into the product and that meant to hit the pricepoint, alot of the things like the camera and battery life are sub-standard and so its resulting in some

pretty nasty reviews." enderle notes if the smart watch is a flop --- it could sour the market for other companies trying to get a piece of the action -- such as apple. amazon has hopes of launching a tv device in time for the holiday season. it's a box for tvs giving viewers access to amazon's video streaming services as well as gaming apps. the wall street journal report amazon set a mid-october deadline for app developers. and now for what investors have been waiting for. after months of speculation, twitter is going public. the stock will trade under the ticker t-w-t-r. the social media site could raise $1 billion dollars--making it the largest ipo since facebook. starting today-- investors can take a bite of potbelly today. the sandwich chain shares open for trade this morning at: below range at $12 at the high feel right at home --- at work. this photo shows a prototype of the social network's new housing community in menlo park, california nearly 400- units will be located within walking distance of facebook's campus. the 120-million dollar facility is expected to have a

doggy day spa, a sports bar and yoga center. still to come: is a hot stock coming to a screeching halt? plus....traders prepare for the debut of a little birdie in the market..... and, bill moller bring us shutdown solutions for investors who are losing sleep this week ... that's next.

the partial shutdown. the pending national default crisis. what's an investor to do? what kind of strategic planning or adjustments might you be able to make to minimize any impact on your portfolio? let's talk with steven esposito. he's been here before. you're an advisor with morgan stanley. how do we approach this? do we think defensively or cautiously? > >i would lay back right now. i would make sure that we focus and keep a cool head right now. if you're nervous i've always felt the best hedge is cash and knowledge. so right now if you

feel uncomfortable, you feel you're overly invested at this point pull back. put some money in cash right now and just maybe wait it out if it helps you sleep at night. > >so, you said this is a short term. so, that would caution us not to overreact? > >correct. i wouldn't panic and just run out and sell your entire portfolio out because of what may or may not happen. there's a good chance that they're going to resolve this between now and october 17th. there were 6 times during the reagan administration the government shutdown---during bill clinton it shut down. so the world's not coming to an end. > >yeah, but the economy's weaker now and the impact from these kinds of shutdowns still could be greater. > >the level of fear---fear is ruling everything. so when people don't like uncertainty and 68% of the population feels that the country's going in the wrong direction they're not confident as it is. and you're at record highs in the market. it could cause investors to--- if there's an excuse to take some profits, it's been a great year. let's put some money on the sidelines. and that can help exacerbate the drop in the market. > >so if want to be more in

cash, how do i determine which stocks i might sell? > >those stocks that have been the most volatile---i would say that have gone up the most, the biggest gains, but look at valuation on an issue by issue basis. if your're trading something that is 100 times earnings and you've got a heavy position you may want to pare back some of those types of situations. but if you're in low pe ratio stocks in companies that have been around a long time and are not overvalued the best strategy i've used in my 30 years is to look at my portfolios. and when i see a stock that i wouldn't buy today if i had cash would i purchase that stock? i answered my own question. so that to me is the most objective way. > >briefly, might there also be opportunities for buying? > >i actually think there's gonna be more opportunities. i absolutely agree with you. i think that's an opportunity. i'm sitting back with large levels of cash in my portfolios, getting ready to pick up stocks that i feel i've been waiting to buy that if i get the opportunity to buy them 5 or 10 percent cheaper. so, yeah i do think there are some great opportunities here. > >good advice as always. steven esposito from morgan stanley. thanks. > >thank you. coming up in traders unplugged, why one trader is watching facebook as twitter gets ready to connect to the market. and is trouble ahead for tesla's stock? stay with us!

the a-k's are ready to take aim at this week's questions in traders unplugged. joining us now from the floor of cme group alan knuckman and andrew keene. it is on ! topic 1: tweet treat - will the ipo of twitter be a buy? alan: well, the big question is how to play ipo's in general. is it gonna be a facebook or is it gonna be a linkedin? obviously linkedin has surged without any real pullback but even facebook is now profitable no matter where you bought it if you got it in that first couple of days. andrew: twitter's a screaming buy. they've done what facebook hasn't done for a long time. they've monitized mobile. they have such a huge user base. most of the user base aren't robots like facebook. facebook got up to that 38--hang out there for

four days and it's off to the races. look at all these growth stocks. there's performance in the hedge fund community for growth stocks. yelp---all time highs. we have pandora with all time highs, facebook----they're all going higher. alan: it must make sense because they're talking about a pe ratio of about 16, whereas facebook came in 25% higher than that so they were pricey to begin with. so it may make sense but put in a limit order. don't just grab it wherever it opens cause it could open up huge and then you're in a bad position. you've gotta stick with it until things get better. andrew: and keep an eye on facebook when twitter does ipo. there might be a shift some cash out of into the twitter ipo so keep an eye on facebook. alan: now you like facebook! angie: topic 2 flying fortune? - are the airlines a buy? andrew: i cannot buy the airlines. they've been absolutely on fire. 52 week high in every single stock. delta, lcc, luv--they're on fire. i would like to buy them on a pullback. i've been long in the airlines this year on pullbacks. can't be buying them up here though. alan: there's been a shutdown actually in the etf that tracks the airline industry. so guggenheim etf was shutdown. but there is something---xtn--- which tracks the transportation industry. so you're not getting all airlines. you're getting 25% airlines but you're also getting railroads and trucking. i think that's a better way to play it. it's been trading in a range here. it looks like it's got about a 25% break on the upside so that's a diversified way if you're too scared.

andrew: delta is the number one play in the airline sector---on a pullback alan: are you gonna bite now? but what would you buy now? angie: topic 3: brand value? apple surpassed coca-cola as one of the most worthwhile and valuable brands, are either of these stocks a buy? you have to pick one. alan: i like coke. i know you wanted me to say apple. andrew: i don't want you to say apple. alan: i love apple, but coca- cola has come down $7. it's 15% off it's recent highs. coke is on sale. coke is not going anywhere. the dow has been down 700 points off its highs whereas the nasdaq just made new all time highs or decade highs anyways in the last couple of days. i think coke is a good value. lean on 36 in coke. we're at 37. there's a lot of upside. if we get back up to the highs at 43, we're going to 50. so there's a lot more upside in coke. and guess what? no matter what happens in the world, you can put it in a drawer and forget about it i think. andrew: i'm gonna actually pick nike.if you see this here it's an apple iphone. it's the new iphone. $750 for this phone. it's nothing different from the

old phone. alan: who lent it to you? andrew: i bought it. nike is my number one pick. that's the number one brand across the world. they had strong sales in china. the stock raged to the upside on earnings. once again nike's going to $75. alan: what happens when people stop running and working out? andrew: you have! but nike sales are still high. alan: atari was the biggest brand in the world at one time and look at it now. angie: on to the bonus round question. one of the following statements about health care reform is false...which one?: - not all americans need to shop now for health care - there is no fee to go onto the government website to shop for health care - you can get coverage for your pets andrew: i think it's a. alan: you can't get coverage for your pet. the others are true but i don't know the double negative of the question. i would have not gotten this on my sat. andrew: a. angie: the answer is: you cannot get coverage for your pets. alan: ding-ding! andrew: did he actually get it right though? he didn't pick a,b, or c. it's multiple choice. first business continues right after this.

tim biggam of trading block is taking a closer look at tesla for this morning. tim, all of a sudden this stock is completely out of favor. the short are loving it. what would be your play here? > >i would still be short even though the stock's come in about 10% here. this stock is still way above what i deem to

be a valuation i would find attractive. so, until the stock heads back down toward even that $60 level i would be a short here going forward. i think this thing has a lot more room to fall from here. > >so how far down? at what level would you buy tesla stock? > >probably right around that $60 level using a fundamental approach. obviously this highlights fundamentals versus momentum or having something to base it on versus beliefs. i look for the stock to have a lot of air about 110 points lower than here is where i would be interested. > >and that is an interesting stock story because for so long people were building up the stock. did it become a momentum play of sorts? > >yeah, you just take a look at the charts, look at the valuation. once the thing started going it obviously went parabolic. so kind of a microcosm of the market too. at some point, valuations do

matter. i think we're being challenged certainly on tesla and on the market generally. so as a value player, i always like to kind of wait and miss maybe these big momo plays rather than jump in and get burned. > >you are my conservative guy. thanks for being on the show. happy weekend. > >you too. thank you angie. that's the end of the line for this week. coming up next time, grocery store trends-- and why it may already be time to start planning your holiday dinners. thank you for watching our show. from all of us at first business, we hope you have a great weekend. ♪ ♪

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