panic at the atm??? a report u.s. banks are preparing for a possible u.s. default. in today's cover story, is twitter's ipo giving investors facebook flashbacks?? plus, signs that the global economy is getting back on track. and what it means for the u.s. and looking closer at the fine print....how signing on the dotted line of some legal documents could cost you big money if you don't watch out! first business starts now! you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning! it's monday, october 7th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: wall street wavers.

stocks rose on friday. but were down for the week as the government shutdown moves into a new week. gold fell $8 and oil edged up 29 cents. walmart is slashing the price on the new iphone 5c to just $45 dollars with a 2 year contract. the smartphone normally sells for $99. and, tesla races back. the stock rallied 4.4% friday after the ceo said the fire in the s model electric car that started with a strong impact to battery-- did not entire the passenger compartment chris gersch joins us now. he's with altimus capital. happy monday morning to you chris. > >happy monday angie. > >well we still have a case of shutdown fever. how will it affect the market today? > >i think we're gonna see a lot of what happened on friday continue today. and this morning as the futures indicate there is a large up position.

those traders on the s &p held that 1680 level throughout the day despite boehner's comments on friday. so in regards to trading on monday, i think we're gonna shrug it off until the 18th. traders are gonna get a bit more hesitant but with that huge day on friday i think that momentum's gonna continue today. > >there's also been a lot of movement happening in the oil patch especially with a storm bearing down. how is that likely to look today? > >today i would look for oil to be to the upside. definitely not to the downside. what we saw on friday i think is also going to continue despite a stronger dollar, you saw upticks in all the energy and as this storm has progressed i think you're gonna see a lot more of that momentum continue to occur and affect the supply markets. therefore it's gonna be an uptick. i would not sell the energy market. > >you're a chicago guy? did you buy potbelly ipo? > >you bet. i bought it for my kids. absolutely. potbelly--- congratulations to them on friday. i think it's a great stock and you can't beat hot sandwiches, milkshakes, and warm cookies. > >we'll have more on that in a minute. > >thanks a lot chris! banks are preparing for the worst! the financial times reports u.s. banks are stocking atms with extra cash as a precaution during washington's governmental gridlock over spending. the report says its in case some consumers make a dash for cash if congress fails to raise the debt limit and u.s. defaults on it's bills. but greg mcbride of bankrate dot com says such behavior is far from likely.

"the consequences of a default are just massive. it would make the 2008 financial crisis look like a saturday afternoon picnic. and not just here in the u.s. but around the globe. so because those consequences are so huge.... the likelihood of us actually going over that limit are very very slim." the financial times says one bank is stocking 30% more cash as a precaution--and that others are considering giving government workers and social security recipients free temporary overdrafts. friction and fallout continue from the government shutdown and the debt ceiling deadline. president obama cancelled his trip to asia this week. and, lawmakers have just 10 days left to raise the debt limit or the nation will be unable to pay it's bills. the most immediate effect will be a sudden drop in the value of bonds held by banks --also a payment covering social security benefits due october 23rd won't happen. friday-- rhetoric ratched up between president obama and house speaker boehner.

"this morning we get the wall street journal out and it says well we dont care how long this lasts because we're winning. this isn't some damn game...the american people dont want their government shutdown and neither do i." when it comes to negotiations, i've said i'm happy to have negotiations with the republicans and speaker boehner on a whole range of issues. but we can't do it with a gun held to the head of the american people. the president made the comments from a taylor gourmet sandwich shop near the white house that is offering 10% discounts to furloughed federal employees. a restaurant employee tells us after the presidential visit there was a line out the door and the owner had a place an order for extra bread over the weekend. the jobs numbers didn't come out friday because of the government shut down. but a new report says hiring will remain strong throughout the remainder of this year. career builder

says one in four employers plans to hire full time workers in the fourth quarter. much of it among companies involving tech, healthcare, financial services, and manufacturing. the report also says 32% of large companies--those with 500 employees or more are hiring. at jpmorgan chase--- ceo jamie dimon is giving up his title of chairman. according to the wall street journal he will now be called chairman emeritus of the main bank subsidiary. dimon has been under scrutiny ever since jpmorgan chase lost more than 6 billion dollars in a bad derivatives trading that is known as the london whale trades. a group of wells fargo employees have been fired for cheating. 30 staff members have been accused of cheating in order to meet sales goals. an anonymous staff member admitted that customer signatures had been forged, and customers had accounts opened in their names -- without their consent. the la times reports pressure to sell financial products ran high in southern california branches. a wells fargo spokesman says: "our team members do have goals. and sometimes they can be blinded by a goal." it's a tough year for the ceo of microsoft. zdnet reports steve

ballmer's pay was docked because of lackluster performance of windows 8 and surface tablet sales during the past year. ballmer is said to have earned $1.26 million in fiscal 2013 and 79% instead of 100% of his incentive pay. another killer quarter for samsung...in its earnings preview, it predicts record profits in the third quarter, with sales up 13%. samsung is currently the largest producer of smartphones in the world. its full earnings report is released later this month. potbelly is giving investors a taste of success. the restaurant started in an antique shop that sold sandwiches on the side. eventually it turned into a nationwide chain and is now making a name for itself on wall street. potbelly shares debuted in an ipo friday. pricing in at $14 and surging 119% to close at 30.77 the stock trades under ticker pbpb. the social media site twitter's i-p-o filing has potential investors eager to take the leap while others are recoiling after another social media site

that went public fell on its facebook, last year. our cover story looks at the risky business of selling 'access' to many pairs of eyes. twitter, the social media site built on users and followers sharing bits of their lives in short bursts of phrases, is going public and hopes to raise a billion dollars from investors who want access to all those people tweeting. "if they can prove that they have the attention of the millennials and lead them to buy, then advertisers will pay money." twitter's revenues in the first half of this year more than doubled what they were last year. but twitter is still comparatively smaller than facebook, which tanked after its ipo before coming back. 218-million monthly users on twitter are about 20% of facebook's 1.16 billion users. and twitter's revenue of 140 million in the second quarter is only 8% of facebook's

revenue. "until you have an ad that leads to a purchase, it'll work but for now, that's wehre these things have been breaking down." what are they selling? access. eyes scanning a screen---even a small smartphone screen provides an opportunity to sell you something. retail analyst jim dion says access to facebook users has provided market research practically volunteered to retailers. "if they don't see return on investment, advetisers will back off." potential investors are looking not so much at what's twitter's done but projected sales. what lies ahead isn't known but here's what its done so far, for the last fiscal year ending june 30th, twitter had revenue of 450-million dollars. two- thirds of it from advertising. but it also recorded a net loss of more than a hundred million. "good luck to them. but it seems that there's sizzle but not a lot of stadk behind it."

twitter makes more of its money from advertising on mobile devices than facebook.but in the next couple of months, expect to see ads on instagram, which allows users to share photos and videos from their smartphone. facebook bought instagram last year, for more than 700-million dollars. the situation is much different at sotheby's. the auction house has a pre-emptive plan in place to make a hostile takeover a difficult. it's in response to hedge fund manager daniel loeb increasing his stake in sotheby's to 9.3%. loeb tells reporters he is also seeking a seat on the sotheby's board. earlier, loeb's firm third point wrote a scathing letter to the ceo saying you have not led the business forward in today's art market. sotheby's dismissed the comments. mcdonald's workers interrupted a speech by a mcdonald's executive their latest efforts to raise how much they are paid at the fast-food chain. the "fight for 15" group protested where the president of mcdonald's usa, jeff stratton was speaking before business

leaders at the union league in chicago. stratton is a 40-year employee of mcdonald's...has held a variety of positions, beginning behind the counter at a franchise in detroit. workers contend that the fast-food chain does not understand the plight of its workers. "what they've said is that they offer competitive wages and they offer opportunities for advancement. we're here to debunk that myth. mcdonald's does not offer competitive wages." "we're tired as workers, we wake up, we have to get up early and put up with our jobs.and with a little bit of money, and we want to told you did a great job, thank you." "we have to take the most valuable asset that we have which is our labor, and we're showing them that we won't take it anymore. and what way can we get them to understand, than to hit their pockets with our labor?" workers say they live in poverty on salaries of just over $11 thousand dollars a year, and need public aid to get by. stratton remained mostly silent during the interruption and later called the protestors actions "inappropriate." the supreme court is set to

take up cases involving labor issues. as the justices start a fresh term that start's today and ends in june. they will hear cases concerning : the power of public sector unions to collect dues, the ability of private- sector unions to sign up members. president's "recess appointments" to the national labor relations board. there's also a campaign contribution case. craft chain hobby lobby is apologizing after a wave of bad publicity. it started after an employee in morlboro, new jersey told a jewish customer looking for hanukkah merchandise that the store didn't cater to quote "you people." hobby lobby apologized adding, "we are investigating this matter and do not tolerate discrimination at our company or our stores." as global food prices decline to the lowest level in three years due to higher productions of corn and rice. we asked chris cornyn, of food & beverage marketing agency dine what it means for the cost of thanksgiving dinners. "during the holidays we all

benefit as consumers from promotions, also we want to treat our families right, so i think alot of us spend our usual budgets knowing that we are going to spend a little bit more, but grocers want to sell and they are going to price it accordingly and so are the food companies." it will be a big year for thanksgiving this year, with the first day of hanukkah falling on turkey day. the last time that happened was the year 1888. still to come: the fine print is getting even finer. advice on how to avoid a legal mess when signing contracts. weeding out the worry-- some economic optimism in the job market. plus, why the focus on flood insurance has surged in recent weeks. but first, a new website that offers customer-screened home maintenance contractors in today's in the know message.

the next time you are asked to sign your name to a contract or any legal document, do yourself a favor and check to make sure you understand exactly what you are signing. joining us on set this morning is attorney paul starkman of pedersen and houpt. and he has some horror stories to share with us today. > >good morning angie. > >good morning. give us a worst case example. > > just recently a client came to me, very sophisticated business owner, had entered into a business deal where he was going to be a joint venturer with a startup company. decided to do it without lawyers and signed all these agreements where not only is on the hook completely for the rent, the

first money that comes into the door goes into the other person that he's in the business with and there's a whole laundry list of things that he didn't anticipate---he didn't intend to do. so it happens to even sophisticated business people. > >we are asked to sign documents all the time. from the doctors office, to mortgages, and leases for renting. when do you know it's time to call in an attorney? > >absolutely. you really need to look at what you're signing. you may be signing away rights that you have. even on short one page documents. anytime you're entering into any kind of business or money making transaction, you need to look at what you're doing because you could be signing away rights that you may not realize you have. > >can you have an attorney look over something for a minimal fee or is it usually something that's expensive? > >it really depends on the

situation. we'll do favors for friends if it's something short and sweet and tell them whether this makes sense or not. but the more involved it is, the more money involved the more you want to have a thorough review of what's going on there. > >and sometimes it's worth it to have somebody look over a document because it could save you from years.... > > absolutely. talk about being pennywise and pound foolish. you just really need at the get go to know what you're getting into. > >what documents do you see that tend to trip people up? > >any kind of lease documents, any kind of loan documents. even documents where you're signing on to social media. your employment documents---when you go in and sign applications. you're signing off on credit reports and background checks and drug testing. things you may not even recognize you're agreeing to. so any kind of important relationship that you're entering into, take a look at what you're signing. > >thank you paul. i'm so happy you could come on the show today. great advice. thank you. > >anytime. flood insurance costs are on the rise. new rate hikes are taking hold across the country. especially among homeowners living in low-lying flood zones. laura adams of insurance quotes dot com tells us they will no longer be entitlted to government assistance on some flood insurance. "basically this is going to remove the federal subsidy that

many homeowners have been enjoying, so that's been keeping their rates sort of artificially low. so once those subsidies are taken away, these homeowners are going to see their rates increase. it going to happen gradually over a course of years." depending on where the home is located insurance costs could double, triple or even quadruple. a bi-partisan group of lawmakers are fighting for lower flood insurance rates. in lieu of an unemployment report this month --- bill moller and company step in to assess the situation. thats next. and later, corporate earnings kickoff! we check in with how traders are preparing as jpmorgan and wells fargo report. we'll be right back!

friday's official september jobs report from the bureau of labor statistics - was officially cancelled. the government shutdown has left only 3 people at work in the bls office. brent schutte is market

strategist with bmo private bank. you know, there's so much chaos going on. a lot of gloom. and yet you are optimistic in what numbers you're able to look at. > >sure i think the u.s. economy is getting better. and i think it has the chance to get quite a bit better. if you look at the global economy, it's actually strengthening. and the global economy has been a headwind for the past couple of years. the jp morgan global pmi index is at a 27 month high. you look at things like the baltic freight index---more freights circulating. and so i actually think that the economy is getting quite a bit better. and the thing with the u.s. is that actually credit is starting to circulate now, which has been the missing ingredient from the fed pumping all the money in the system. it's now actually appearing as if it's starting to circulate. > >so who's looking for that credit? small businesses typically? > >small businesses. you also

have people---individuals looking for credit. a mortgage company---i believe it was ellie may---actually did a survey and they showed that in august of 2013, 30% of residential mortgage applicants who were successful actually had a fico score of less than 700. contrast that with august of 2012, where it was only 15%. and so credit is easing. and that's actually a decent thing for an economy looking to move forward. > >you've done a lot of research. you're recognized nationally for your analysis of the participation rates. are you optimistic there? > >this is what the debate in washington's about right now. it's about entitlements. if you look at the federal budget over the next 3 or 4 years we have made quite a bit of progress. it actually looks better. if you look out 20 or 30 years, it doesn't look so great. and the reason is that entitlements are growing as a percentage of the u.s. economy. entitlements in some way, shape, or form keep people or incent people to not work at extremes. and if you look at growth rates in economies over the last 20 years, the economies that grow the fastest have the most labor force participation.

> >united states, australia.... > >---canada. places like that. you look at the countries at the bottom of the list....italy, 49% of italians participate in the labor force. their average growth rate over the past 20 years is 0.85%. contrast that with australia which is 3.3 or the u.s. at 2.6. > >so you're not as worried about the possible debt default coming up on the 17th as throwing this all apart? > >i don't think so. i think there'll be some sort of settlement. i think it's a discussion that they're having in washington right now and hopefully there will be an outcome. because if there isn't, i do think it could be a potentially serious, short-term consequence. > >brent schutte from bmo private bank. thanks. > >thank you. thank you bill, just ahead-- how traders are setting up for earnings coming from the banks this week. chart talk is next.

in chart talk this morning it's never too early to figure out how to make money on the banks. joining us now is the president of keeneonthemarket.com, andrew keene. good morning. > >good morning angie. > >how are you setting up to make some money at jp morgan and wells fargo? we'll start with jpm. > >last week they came in and bought a slew of upside calls in jp morgan. currently i'm long to november 55 calls. i bought these for about 60 cents. i think there's a chance jp morgan could get above that $55. these stocks have been underperforming the stock market. i look at this as an opportunity. i think they have bottomed for the year---jp morgan and in wells fargo. > >let's take a closer look at the charts on wells. what do you see here that you like or do not like?

> >actually wells is looking a little bit weak. i've actually made money---been long puts. last week i was long puts. i actually sold them all out on thursday when the stock market sold off. wells fargo seems to be stabilizing around this $41 level. it should be interesting on earnings. earnings have been ratcheted down so much than i think they're gonna beat. two thirds of the s &p stocks beat last time on earnings. i expect upside surprises in the bank stocks with interest rates moving off that 3% moving lower, this should be good for the banks and the earnings should be good this quarter. > >alright, we'll see what happens. thank you andrew keene. > >thank you. coming up tomorrow. the bigger picture on what to expect from the new round of earnings starting up this week as corporate america reports on profits. from all of us at first business, we hope today is the beginning of a great week ahead.

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