hope on the hill. wall street watches as capitol hill attempts to close in on a deal... in today's cover story...has the friction in congress caused a setback for the jobs recovery... plus...immigration reform is on the back burner...but not for long. what one congressman has to say about future of the legislation. and...stocks and the shutdown...how to make money off the congressional blip. first business starts now! you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas good morning! it's tuesday, october 15th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: it's crunch time! there are now just 2 days left before our nation reaches its debt limit and can no longer afford to pay its bill. stocks raced higher on hopes a

deal will happen before the deadline. the dow rallied 64 points, the nasdaq 23 and the s&p 7. gold fell 4 dollars and oil drifted 24 cents lower. coldwater creek reportedly is evaluating its options in what the ceo calls a "challenging" retail environment. shares of the women's clothing store closed last a $1.26. south dakota is reeling from a sudden ice and snow storm that wiped out thousand of cattle. ranchers are still trying to get the exact number but losses could reach tens of millions of dollars and cause a large enough dent in the entire industry to drive up beef prices. phillip streible of rjo futures joins us now. good morning to you. how are you playing this market? it's been a wonderful opportunity for people who are buying the dips. > >we saw a wild ride yesterday. the equity market started off very soft and as the day progressed, a lot of talk about a debt deal being done and we just saw a massive move up

as the day progressed. > >what's going on with the dollar? it's down significantly since earlier this summer. what do you think is happening here? is it all debt worries? > >that's exactly what it is. there's a lot of concern about the government and when you see that, you see a flight out of the dollar index. you see it into the euro currency, into the british pound, the swiss franc. basically anything but our dollar and that's what causes that product to decline. if they do reach this deal, you could see the market come right back. > >we have more earnings coming into the market but will that really matter? > >no, it actually doesn't matter at the moment. the primary focus is the u.s. government and them getting back online and running. you will see earnings play a major focus though once that's behind us and that will be front and center. > >phil, always a pleasure. thank you and have a great trading day. > >thank you. onto to the scramble in the senate.senate republicans are scheduled to meet at 11:00 eastern this morning. as the october 17 deadline

looms for the debt ceiling limit and the government shutdown enters its 15th day.. top leaders from both side are signaling a deal could be reached to avert a default and end the partial government closure. "we've made tremendous progress. we are not there yet but tremendous progress. and everyone just needs to be patient." "i think it's safe to say we've made substantial progress and we look forward to making more progress in the near future." reuters reports-- today's discussion including potentially raising the $16.7 trillion debt limit enough to last through mid- february of 2014. and the government would be funded through the middle of january. sequester spending cuts would continue. the senate deal would still require approval from house... which has president obama keeping the heat turned on high. "we've already had a damaging effect on our economy because of the shutdown, that damage would be greatly magnified if we

don't make sure that the government's paying its bills and that has to be decided this week. " the government shutdown and debt ceiling uncertainty is having an immediate affect on employment...and not only among federal workers. as our cover story explains, claims for new jobless benefits are up. the government shutdown is reaching beyond furloughed government workers. a labor department report on american workers in the private sector, saw the biggest spike in nearly a year---a seasonally adjusted increase of 66-thousand claims, last week may be just the beginning. "the longer term affect is that companies may think the government could face this again very soon, so they are adopting a '"wait-and-see," cautious approach to the future."

according to the labor department, some of the increase was due to a backlog of claims in california. but many states showed contractors who rely on federal contracts laying off employees and a ripple effect happening already. "from home- remodling, to personal services, there is lost business that will not come back and that's the first line of impact. the longer this goes, the worse it for small business." the university of michigan preliminary survey of consumer confidence sentiment, an indicator of how people perceive the stability of their incomes and ability to make purchases fell to a nine-month

low in october. 75-point-2. john challenger says it's as if congress is being counter- productive to what's the fed's been doing since the recession. "congress, by getting into this mess is undoing everything the fed's been doing to prop up the economy. it's as if we have government working against each other." worries are growing around the world. leaders from china, japan, mexico, and the phillippines are issuing statements of concern about a u.s. default. china is the largest holder of u.s. government debt at $1.3 trillion dollars. china's ministry of commerce tells reporters-- the rest of the world should start to de-americanize... the congressmen are behaving irresponsibly and gambling the u.s. future on political interests. most countries hold foreign exchange reserves in u.s. dollars. the dollar is

viewed as the most stable in the world. rumor has it macys employees will be working on thanksgiving this year. the chicago sun times reports the retailer will open some stores on the holiday at 8pm and stay open for 24 hours. already reports say the pressure is on for retailers this christmas due to effects from the government shutdown. we checked in with consumers to see if thanksgiving hours...are taking the holiday shopping craze a step too far.... "i feel sorry for the employees but as a consumer i'm happy!" "it will probably start a chain reaction with all the other retailers." i think thanksgiving a time where you should spend it with the family. and i think black friday is too popular right now. and i think they have to get back to their roots. i don't agree with that." macys did not return our request for comment. as retailers sweat out losses from the government shutdown..veterans are also counting deficits from the debt debate. usa today reports-- veterans of war are planning a rally at the national world war

ii memorial today. veterans groups say military members and their families are coping with delayed disability pay, gi bill education stipends and other benefits. if the nation defaults on its debt-- 5.1 million veterans will not receive checks as well as surviving spouses and children. boeing is accused of overcharging the government. according to a report obtained by bloomberg news -- boeing overstated estimates of new components for ch-47f chinook helicopter. and, primarily installed used parts under a $4.4 billion government contract. a boeing spokesman tells bloomberg it disagrees with the ig's conclusions. the report by the inspector general -- also blames defense agencies and military services for lax negotaitons. it's been 15 years since big tobacco agreed to pay out billions to settle claims of lying about the dangers of cigarettes. according to a report from n-p-r, $100 billion has been paid out so far --

from the $246 billion, 25-year settlement. the c-d-c recommended that a minimum of 14% of the money be directed to anti smoking programs -- but states have reportedly not been forthcoming on how exactly the money is being used. the settlement money did come with no strings attached. he's already sold stock to raise money to pay investors. now-- hedge fund manager steve cohen plans to sell some famous works of art from his esteemed collection. as the legal battle mounts -- cohen will auction off two andy warhol paintings and an abstract painting by gerhard richter. the works go on the auction block at sothebys next month. cohen --is the founder of sac capitol may be headed for a plea deal with prosecutors over insider trading charges. traders will be watching for a deal between netflix and cable companies. netflix is reportedly considering hooking up with comcast, suddenlink communications and other providers-- to make its video service available through set top boxes. the wall street journal calls talks premature and a deal is not expected soon. none the less, investors

connected with the stock monday-. shares popped 7% to 23 dollars. microsoft's latest driving ambition is a safe cell phone for motorists. the tech company is reportedly updating windows software that would reduced driving distractions. the software could be set on driving mode that would automatically silence incoming calls and texts plus send a reply that you are driving. it does not however, block out going calls and text messages. and in the latest on the microsoft search for a new ceo. mark hurd, the president of oracle is said to be on the short list according to the wall street journal. 31.6 million riders- that's how many passengers amtrak trains carried during the past year -- and it's a record. railroad officals released the results that tracked passengers during the 20-13 federal fiscal year. it's noted the record was set despite the busy northeast corridor service being temporarily shutdown because of superstorm sandy. ticket revenue also set a record by hitting $2.1 billion. could it be the "downton abbey" effect? country homes come back into fashion in england.

bloomberg reports that prices for homes in the english countryside valued at more thank 750-thousand-pounds - or about 1.2 million u-s dollars -- have grown at the fastest rate in three years. the british government is also helping to fuel the trend by offering mortgage guarantees for purchasers with down payments as low as 5%. unfortunately, just in time for halloween -- growing demand, coupled with bad weather are pushing chocolate prices up. cocoa butter prices are already at a four-year high. and over the past year that has meant a 20% price jump for the sweet treat. the demand for chocolate is up worldwide -- the market is growing more than 6% per year. fear is in the air. halloween spending is expected to slow this year...down 14% from last year. the national retail federation tells cnbc we are "in an either or economy" and says americans will spend 2.6 billion dollars on costumes for themselves, kids and pets. in a survey -- consumers said the economy will not deter them from going all out for the big day.

think tax filers get a break because the government is closed? think again. midnight tonight is the deadline to file your taxes if you have any kind of personal extension. even though the irs isn't available, the e-file system is still open for business. still to come: can you trust word of mouth when it comes counting on a financial advisor? plus...something historic is happening to social security. and next, chuck coppola sits down with a u-s congressman for his thoughts on the government shutdown and the debt ceiling dilemma. that's next.

in the tumultuous 1960's, two chicago parents decided to take their american-born children back to the island and raise them where it was safe---where good values would surround their children, including 15- year old luis gutierrez. who grew up and returned to chicago and became one of this country's most outspoken advocates for immigration reform as a u-s congressman from illinois. he's written a book about his journey--called still dreaming. congressman, welcome. > >thanks. > >right now, we're embroiled in the debt ceiling debate and the shutdown has put everything on hold including immigration reform. what do the tea party republicans in washington really want? > >they want no government. they

want as little government and to destroy whatever does exist. and you know what, there are 40 of them. they make up a minority of the republican caucus. but they threaten john boehner everyday. if you don't do it my way, you won't be speaker of the house. > >will they be back in the next election? > >i think that this shutdown of the government is not gonna be helpful to them. i think it's going to be detrimental to them and their cause. > >you pressed president obama very hard in his first administration on immigration reform. he had a lot on his plate---a financial meltdown for one. my question is: do you think that he has the will to expend the political capital on immigration reform in his second term? or will he be consumed with other things such as tax reform? > >i think once barack obama embraced that he would not deport young immigrants who came here as children, dreamers as they are called. and he really embraced it---he did a great job. > >you would think that the

business community would embrace the labor force and consider it a valuable resource. why bring an engineering student to the u.s. and then make it harder for him or her to gain citizenship after they graduate? is that going to change? do you see it changing anytime soon? > >we have to remember that one of the greatest beneficiaries of comprehensive immigration reform is the business community. the congressional budget office says we gain $175 billion to the good in terms of reducing our deficit if we legalize the 11 million. you have 2 million agricultural workers. my kids aren't going to the fields, your kids aren't going. we have to make a decision. our food is going to be picked in foreign countries by foreign hands or by foreign hands in our own. and i say, let's give you the stability. sciences and math---we need them. why do we educate young people from india, china, russia and then we send them off when we are competing to get them back. we should staple the diploma to those degrees and keep them right here in our country. > >congressman, thank you.

> >thank you. historically low "cost of living adjustments" will be made to social security. preliminary numbers suggest the cola adjustment in 20-14 will be a mere 1.5% -- the smallest increase since 1975. the reason-- is consumer prices -- are said to be up only slight during the past year. final numbers that determine the exact amount of the adjustment are delayed because of the government shutdown. coming up... what to know before entrusting a stranger with your portfolio. that's next. and later on... how do you profit from the government shutdown....one money manager's thoughts are next...in chart talk.

before turning your retirement money over to a financial advisor --consider going beyond checking the track record. dana anspach, sensible money writer-- join us now. dana, good morning. how do you know if it's a track record you can actually

trust? ponzi schemer bernie madoff had a great track record. > >yes, absolutely. his track record was so good that it was actually one of the ways that they helped identify what he was doing was a scam. consistent returns with low risk...it's what we all dream of but it's simply not possible. it means that track records aren't as important as people think they are when you go to hire someone. > >what should you do because even word of mouth may work against you. > >i think there's two things you can do. one, you have to understand the difference between someone who is strictly a money manager or an investment advisor and someone who is delivering holistic financial planning advice. if it's truly a money manager, you really need multi-millions of dollars before you hire that kind of person. then a track record becomes relevant. but that doesn't apply to most of us. most of us need someone to

help us figure out how to allocate our 401k plan or what to do with our ira money. then it's more about approach and philosophy and less about track record. > >if you were about to look for a financial planner---just for the average joe----what would you look for? > >i would look for someone who had their cfp---certified financial planner designation. someone that had at least 5 years of experience. someone who didn't sell investment or insurance products for a commission. i would want to know that they worked with people like me. whatever my age range or occupation was that their clients were a lot like me. and that they had a consistent process in place that was not about trying to time the market. > >dana, thanks for your time today. that sounds like sound advice to us. thanks again for coming on. > >thanks angie. blackberry is reaching out to customers to assure them that the company is financially stable. in an open letter, published in 30 news outlets, blackberry tells its customers that they can continue to count on the company. the smartphone maker has struggled of late and recently laid off 45-hundred

employees and put itself up for sale. chuck--as the blackberry saga continues-- better days may ahead for ibm. find out more next in chart talk. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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matt shapiro, president of mws capital joins us now. matt, you are watching a stock that is tied to the government shutdown---ibm. what's the play here? > >well, the play is an all- american stock that's really been down. laying around 187 or so on some earnings disappointments they've had over the last year. there was an interesting article in the wall street journal this weekend about capital expenditures and of course the restraint that corporations feel because of all the brinksmanship in washington. so if we get a little clearance in the next day or two, ibm is coming out with earnings at the same time. so we'll get a real clue if those earnings estimates are real because right now it has a pe of just 10. as you know, ibm is really the leader in computer capital equipment so this plays into that theme. > >is this a stock that you currently hold and would you buy more? i'm thinking of that long term holder who's been in there for 5 years. this has been a tremendous stock to own.

> >it really has. and it's my largest technology position. of course this year it hasn't done anything so it's a sleeping dog. i want to see what happens with the earnings report on wednesday morning. > >you are looking for a breakout. > >absolutely---they come out with something good, people are gonna look at this 10 pe, realize that there's gonna be capital expenditures in the computer infrastructure business. ibm will benefit from that. > >thank you for bringing that stock to us matt. have a good one. > >you too. coming up tomorrow on our show... more on how companies are ramping up spending and what that says about the economy. also, we are pleased to welcome miss manners. she's out with a new book about manners in the business world. from the sales field to a corporate management-- miss manners has tips for you. from all of us at first business, thank you for watching today and everyday. have a great day everyone!

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