taper timeline. when the fed might be getting ready to execute a new plan for the economy. in today's cover story...a look ahead at 2014, through the eyes of traders. plus... simple tips to investing in etfs. and... why super bowl tickets are the hottest commodity... on wall street. let's get down to business! you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning! it's wednesday, december 18th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: stocks stall ahead of the rate decision and potential taper talk from the fed today.the dow,

taper timeline. when the fed might be getting ready to execute a new plan for the economy. in today's cover story...a look ahead at 2014, through the eyes of traders. plus... simple tips to investing in etfs. and... why super bowl tickets are the hottest commodity... on wall street. let's get down to business! you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning! it's wednesday, december 18th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: stocks stall ahead of the rate decision and potential taper talk from the fed today.the dow, nasdaq and s&p remained close to unchanged for the day.gold shed 13 dollars and oil 38 cents.amc raises the curtain on its ipo.the stock begins trading today, alternatives after pricing in 17, 18,19, 20,21 the ticker is amc.triple aaa predicts 94.5 million people will travel during the holiday's.making it the 5th straight year of an increase of americans hitting the road and taking to the skies.and today is free shipping day more than 800 retailers will shipping at no charge with gauranteed delivery by christmas eve. it's going to be a really interesting wednesday. scott shellady of trean joins us now. it is all about the fed today. what is your anticipation? >>i'm gonna do something a bit different here. i think some folks think there is going to be some sort of taper. here's what i'm gonna go for. i don't think that they should taper but i think that they're going to give us taper guidance. we're going to taper july 1st if the numbers keep giong the way they're going. if they don't we reserve the right to push the taper off or bring it forward. >>you may have something there

and i want to know your thoughts about what happens after the announcement. after that press conference with ben bernanke. sometimes that tends to be the market mover. >>i think that's the billion dollar question.i would say that the market sentiment right now is that if we get no taper we might see a little pop in stocks and maybe a decent selloff. so i think ultimately, here's the score---we have an economy that's got some hurdles. we've had some decent numbers as of late. we have to take that sugar water away at some point in time. maybe the market wants to have it happen sooner rather than later and that will give us the confidence that we need. >>what's the trade of the day? do you short the market, go long, or stay on the sidelines? >>i'm going to stay on the sidelines until after i see some verbiage or some rhetoric come out of the fed. after that i think you're going to see a pop if we don't taper but i think that's ultimately to be sold. and i think that if we do taper, a lot of folks out there are going to start to believe that strength in the market, which i'm not quite sure, but i think that's how the market will be read and i think that will be a buy. >>thank you scott. >>thank you.

in our cover story, the fed tapering of its bond-buying program could be a boost to commodities traders.they see futures in 20-14 looking better, weather-permitting, and less volatile than stocks at this time. thanks largely to hydralic fracturing or fracking, u-s oil production is on track to nearly reach an all-time high. according to the energy information administration's 20- 14 outlook, as much as 9.5 million barrels a day just two years from now. the previous peak was 9.6 million in 1970. "i think in the new year, there's going to be a lot of pressure on the us to lift the 1970 ban on exporting oil. so i think next year, the u.s. will take the historic step and start exporting oil." also, natural gas production is up and flynn predicts greater demand for it in 2014. "you're going to see natural gas cars, factories and we're going to export nat gas in ways no one thought possible in the next few years."

some think energy could supply the boost, the economy's needed. "i'll be watching the dollar against the euro currencies. we'll gain against them but lose ground to the japanese yen." on soft commodities, soybeans are trading three times than corn and may lead farmers to plant more soybeans this year. and with last year's 14-billion bushel record corn crop, cattle ranchers are hoping to recover from 20-12's disasterous drought. "corn prices are now at levels that farmers can afford it for feed and so they're going to continue to expand herds." "as far as corn, wheat and soybeans, i'm looking at spreads rather than an outright position. soybeans are historically high and so is wheat to corn and it could be very profitable in the coming year." jack scoville says there's an

ample supply of coffee but there may be rising prices for cocoa and rice. it's the ultimate tech talk in washington. president obama in a round table visit with the leaders of apple, twitter, yahoo, google and netflix. i'm just wondering if you have an advanced copy of the house of cards? (laughter) you could do a cameo i wish that things were that ruthlessly effiecient. the president no doubt was refering to the technical glitches that plagued the roll out of healthcare.gov. a former microsoft exec has been named to managed the troubled site.at the white house yesterday, a number of the ceos are urging president obama to move aggressively forward with reforming the government surviellence program. said to

have distrupted more than 50 terrorist plots. a judge ruled this week: the government snooping of tech data may be unconstitional. a vote is expected today on a bipartisan budget agreement. yesterday the senate cleared a path for a final vote on the budget deal. it sets top line spending for 2014 & 15, and reduces sequester spending cuts by 63 billion over two years. the senate voted to end debate. however, some conservative members opposed the deal. its expected to pass the senate and receive a signature from the president. after that, congress would begin work on an omnibus spending bill for 2014. the sec is collecting a staggering amount of money this year as corporations pay a record price for bad behavior. the securities and exchange commission reports it levied a $3.4 billion in penalties. up 10% from last year. the bulk of the fines is coming from hedge fund sac capital, bp and jp morgan chase.

starting this week, less chit chat at jpmorgan. reuters reports the bank has banned employees from using chat rooms to communicate with each other at work. regulators have monitored online chats as part of the ongoing "libor" investigation. deutsche bank and ubs both banned chatting services after probes into interest rate rigging cost both banks hefty settlements. a jpmorgan employee tells cnbc that chatroom bans are unrelated to the libor investigation. a break out plan to end paying doctors to promote drugs is coming from glaxosmithkline. the british drug maker also says sales rep salaries-- will not longer be tied to how many prescriptions doctors write. meantime, glaxo faces scrutiny by chinese authorities who accused the company of bribing doctors, hospitals and government officials in an effort to sell more drugs at a higher price. glaxo officials are cooperating with authorities. a new study suggests u.s adults are wasting money on vitamins. an editorial out this week finds more than half of adults take a multivitamin to help prevent illness. however, the

study led by a group of doctors finds... taking supplements on a regular basis did not help decrease risks of stroke or heart attack. herbalife shares are spiking.. yesterday the stock rallied more than 2%. the stock is gaining on word an audit by pricewatershousecoopers found no material changes after checking accounting records for 2010, 2011 and 2012. nonetheless-- hedge fund manager bill ackman maintains the nutrional supplement company is an illegal pyramid scheme. google and hewlett-packard are recalling 145-thousand chromebook 11 laptop chargers because the units can overheat. the u-s consumer product safety commission says people should immediately stop using the chromebook 11 because of fire and burn hazards. the affected laptops were sold in october and november for about 3- hundred dollars. consumers should contact google for replacements. facebook is becoming more

visual. the social network is preparing to launch video ads this week. you'll see them pop up, and automatically play on both the web and on the facebook smartphone app. its not clear how many companies will use the ads right off the bat...but the wall street journal says one of the first will be lionsgate to promote its new film divergent. one analyst had this response. "ha, ha, good luck. most people will silence most of them unless and this is a big 'unless,' they are incredibly good, funny ads." the ad venture could open up a fresh source of revenue for the company. fb stock is trending higher, closing last at 54 dollars. talks between car companies and union workers are "way" down the road.. but the uaw is already gearing up. reuters reports a top uaw official has plans to eliminate the two tier wage system. the system pays new auto workers at a lower rate than long time employees. the pay division was installed because of the nation's financial breakdown in 2007. the uaw's next negotiations with gm, ford and chrysler happen in

2015. tesla is taking a couple of new routes. the electric car company set up a chinese website making it possbile for chinese consumers to buy the tesla model "s". deliveries are expected early next year. the automaker also has plans to unveil an electric car in the u.s. that will sell in the $40- thousand dollar range. making the car more affordable for main stream america.the model "s" sedan currently starts at $71-grand. the confidence of u-s home builders continues to climb higher in a solid sign that rising interest rates aren't hurting the economy. the national association of home builders' latest index rose four points in december to 58. levels above 50 indicate industry expansion. economists had predicted a 55 for the index. jed kolko of trulia says the boost in confidence was helped by more building permits in december. "that means there are more units that are being permitted, which should translate into more starts over the next couple

of months. " kolko adds that construction of multi family buildings are up, which will lead to a spike in rentals next year. the number of americans with underwater mortgages has dropped 40%. in the third quarter 6.4 million homeowners still owed more on their mortgages than their home's market value. down significantly from 10.6 million a year ago. according to new data from core logic.. the decline is in large part due to rising home prices.. the former home of chicago bulls legend michael jordan is still on the market. it was up for auction, but a spokeswoman for jordan says the highest bid did not meet the reserve price of 21 million dollars. the chicago area home has seven bedrooms, 15 bathrooms, a library, and of course, a basket ball court. starting december 21st --toys r us plans to open for 87 hours straight leading up to christmas. toys r us joins a growing list of retailers extending hours for this year's shortened shopping season -- macy's, nordstrom, target and

wal-mart, among others, are all trying to lure last-minute shoppers with extra time. this is the peak week for package delivery service ups -- the company expects to pick up somewhere in the neighborhood of 34-million parcels. on its busiest day this week ups delivered 300 packages per second. nearly 20-thousand ups employees are working around the clock -- as they do every christmas season -- to make it happen. it will also be a very busy day at starbucks tomorrow as it anticipates selling a record number of its gift cards. last december 19th, the coffee giant sold more than 2 million cards in the u-s and canada -- that's 15-hundred cards per minute. football fans on wall street are driving demand for superbowl tickets. ticket brokers say they are fielding calls from wall streeters are already trying to score seats for clients. it will be a pricey year.seats are ranging from 22 hundred dollars, all the way up to 12 thousand dollars. still to come:

the fed head is center stage on wall street. how traders are preparing... plus...how corporate america is "sharing the wealth" with investors this christmas.... and...investment trends.... a step by step guide to putting money into etfs...that's right after the break! i'm going to pass chemistry, and i'll take it from there. i'm going to do what makes me happy. i'm going to work hard. be independent. live large. make the most of every opportunity. i knew i wanted to go to college. but figuring out how to pay for it? i didn't have a clue.

the u.s. department of education has over $100 billion. and that's a lot of money. to help students pay for college. and the free application? you mean the fafsa. i did it online. it was easy. i'm never giving up on my goals. i will make a difference. i'm going to find out how to pay for college. i'm going to college.gov.

$86 billion dollars is invested in exchange traded funds. better known as etf's or even baskets of stocks or commodites or other assets. joining us on set this morning.. andrew gogerty--the etf managed portfolio strategist at morningstar. good to have you here. >>thank you for having me. >>you track 150 firms using etf strategies. so what are some of the big trends? are a lot of

them using the stock etf's? >>this year, and if you look at the general market returns, strategies based around u.s. equity or trying to beat indesxes such as the s&p 500 have really gained traction with advisors. the space overall grew at almost 37% through the third quarter of this year. but that has really been dominated by demand for u.s. equities strategies. >>how big is that demand and what do you see as far as actual growth on return for these people? >>returns this year have been mixed. but with any large sample set, we're tracking 650 individual strategies. not every strategy is going to outperform. but many advisors in the united states have home country bias. u.s.equities consume a large part of the portfolio. and with u.s. equity broadmarket indexes being up it's not surprising to see that advisors are shifting back and away from things that have done well in the past such as fixed income commodities or even non- us equities. >>any signs of other trends out

there? especially because the stock market has been such a winner this year. >>i think one of the trends that you're going to see next year is increased adoption of these strategies. many of these are not wrapped in mutual funds, they're managed accounts so they are kind of out of the mainstream limelight. but advisors like these portfolios. it's a complete solution for a client. it can be globally diversified with just a handful of underlying holdings, that being individual etf. so we think the penetration is going to continue into next year. >>and for someone who is new to this and they're thinking, what is an etf exactly? just give us some names. like for instance you could have a big cap etf that would maybe include google or apple. >>sure, you could have a large cap etf. one of the most common is the spider s&p 500. it tracks the s&p 500 index. it holds all of the underlying securities. what you're seeing in these strategies is these asset managers are taking something like that and pairing it with other etf's such as vanguards emerging market, which covers emerging market stocks. and then something like agg which is the ishares total bond for the united states. so what you are getting is a complete portfolio with few number of holdings but you're actually getting exposure to hundreds if not thousands of securities. >>you're still diversified. >>absolutely. >>good to have you on the show. come back soon. >>thank you very much. investors are taking a hike. both boeing and 3-m have promised end of the year dividend hikes. boeing said it is increasing its dividend by 50 percent or 73 cents a share. while 3m is boosting its dividend by 35 percent. dividend payments in the s&p 500 hit a new record in 20-13.

thanks chuck! coming up... what inflation is signaling about a potential fed move today. plus...how technology is rapidly changing the american workforce. that's next with bill moller.

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several forces are affecting great change in the american workplace. social, economic but most dramatically change is being accelerated by technology. doctor tracey wilen speaks, writes and is a teacher on change in the workplace. and you have a new book coming out in 2014. 1 of these changes is really biological - we're living longer. > >that's right. some say we're living to 100, which unlike our parents who worked 300 years, we'll be working 50 or 60. > >so you have multiple generations now in the workplace. > >absolutely. some firms have 4 generations. we're projecting 5 generations in the next 20 years. > >what's becoming the norm in

the workplace is vuca. if people don't know what that is it's volatility, uncertainty, complexity & ambiguity. > >that's right a firm everyday and individuals deal with a lot of complexity and unknowns. we need to start to think about how to prepare for that. > >a lot of it is because of technology. the rise of the machines you say is going to be a big--- > >automation and robotics are here to stay and are really replacing many jobs and augmenting many jobs in unique ways. > >part of that also is the multimedia world. we see that with the ubiquity of tablets and cellphones. > >and you tube and facebook...images are everything. how to communicate, how to absorb, how to advertise using multimedia. > >what do you mean by diversity as being a component here? > >diversity is not only age, gender, technology differences, education differences, and cultural differences. so we are a very deep diverse company and organizations today. > >kind of the globalization of the workplace. > >globalization. your

competitor is not just your neighbor next door, it's your competitor across the nation and across the sea. > >and to keep your edge you need these as you call them, transdisciplinary skills. > >it's a t person. breadth and depth with a technology overlay. remember to keep up you skills and education. people want a players in companies today. > >that also speaks to people going to college. you have to be aware that maybe the schools, i don't know, are fully up to speed with training people on all of this. > >yo're bringing up a really good point. i think it's important that we help students connect the dots between education and skills and employment. i think it's important that students know what they need to be employable for life. > >employed for life, the name of your new book coming out in 2014. tracey wilen, thanks so much. > >thank you bill. thank you bill -- you may have worked harder yesterday than you will today. according to a survey by accountemps-- nearly half of human resource managers say employees most productive day of the week: is tuesday! after tuesday, monday comes in second, follwed by wednesday, thursday and friday are the days people tend to be less productive. still ahead what the so called smart money is doing ahead of the fed. chart talk is next.

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time now to head to the pit at the chicago board options exchange. trader dan deming is standing by. dan, good morning to you. what is the so called smart money doing? you trade options on the vix. what do you see down there? >>i can tell you as we roll into this number today we have seen some buying going on ahead of the numbers and the vix options. meaning the expectations are that possibly the fed might actually do something. you saw the vix rise into this announcement later today. basically, we saw some buying of january optionsat the money optionsof the vix as well so another indication that some people out there are certainly hedging for the possibility of a pullback. >>you're on the trading floor so you see it all. what is your trader instinct telling you about the possibility of a

taper move with the fed today? >>based on what they have been saying over the last couple of years, the one thing i'm watching very closely is the inflation numbers. and right now the fed target of 2% is just not there in 2013. so i would think that based on the fact that we saw pretty benign tpi number come in yesterday that the fed probably will be on hold for december. they might indicate something down the road but if you look at inflation numbers by themselves they are not indicating a tightening or even reduced liquidity provisions. >>right, because when inflation is low and we start to get deflation that's a bigger problem for the fed. >>exactly. >>good to have you on the show. thanks for your insights today dan. >>you're welcome angie. that's a wrap for now.join us tomorrow for a "legendary" movies and money thursday.one of the most intensly marketed films anchors the box office starting today.will it be a star? from all of us at first business have a great day!

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