when you recognize a veteran is in crisis, as a big week gets underway on wall street... a preview of the 4-th quarter earnings season and sectors that could move on strong profitt reports.. in today's cover story..the jobs number stunner. only 74,000 jobs were added to payrolls.. is it a consumer confidence killer? and retailers trying to get a grip on tight fisted shoppers. first business starts now! you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas good morning! it's monday, january 13th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: where's the reaction? the jobs data from december came out friday showing the unemployment rate drop to 6.7% and only 74,000 jobs added to payrolls.. but the market was

nearly paralyzed on which way to go. the dow fell a point the nasdaq up 18 and the s&p by 4. gold showed some strength up $17 dollars and oil gained $1.03. bank of america is changing its work rules.following the death of an intern--reuters reports the rules involving days off for employees. and, united airlines suffers a computer complication that left 1,500 flight grounded. sources says it has to do with the airline's merger with continental. phillip streible of rjo futures joins us now with what to expect from this trading day on this monday morning. good morning to you phillip. >>good morning to you. >>the market had a rather muted reaction to the jobs number on friday. will we get any kind of reaction today? >>i think we're gonna see the market start to move higher. i think that news is digested. a lot of people were scratching their heads all weekend. thinking about how that number could come in at 74 thousand when most analysts were

expecting 200 thousand. i think we're gonna start to see a lot of improved economic data as the week goes on and because of that i think the stock market's gonna continue to rebound higher. >>now that the jobs number is out of the way, what will be the next big thing for the market? >>really it's towards the end of the month. the 28th and 29th of january, you're gonna have the next big fed meeting. what those guys are gonna do is they're gonna scratch their head and look at what that number was, think if it's gonna be revised higher. also they'll keep up that tapering. they'll start to lean off that gas pedal and i think because of that it's gonna show that economy's improving and i think prices are gonna propel higher. >>and a quick comment on gold >>we saw gold prices shoot up on that move. a lot of people concerned again about the tapering. i think gold prices start to sell off and travel back below 1200 on improved economy. >>have a great trading day. >>thank you. in our cover story, were the

labor department's low employment numbers for december a hiccup or significant enough to have repercussions. the labor department's december employment numbers of 74- thousand jobs fell far below expectations. one analyst called a drop in 16-thousand construction jobs "weather- related" but others see the drop linked with fed chairman ben bernanke's announcement that the fed would begin tapering its bond buying program and its affect on interest rates. "the announcement the fed was going to pull back--interest rates went up and home sales pulled right back." for months, bernanke said quantitative easing would be tied to job growth. but economists say the unemployment rate's drop to 6.7% percent is due to fewer people looking than anything else. the labor force is shrinking. 74-thousand jobs is the weakest monthly increase in three years. could it cause the fed to change its mind and reverse course? "i don't think you'll see a reverse course.// yellen doesn't weant to come in guns blazing and bernanke won't pull the trigger 'cause he's out.

they'll take an approach of 'let's see how this plays out." there's another aspect to consider, the latest conference board consumer confidence index through mid-december showed sentiment at a five-and-a-half- year high...attributed to a more favorable economy and labor market. could that change now? "consumer confidence could be impacted by the numbers we're seeing .that may make people hang onto their money a little bit more." the percentage of americans participating in the workforce has now dropped to a 35-year low.it's now less than 63- percent. here's more evidence consumers are not so quick to part with their money. the numbers are in from the holidays....and many american's spent less than expected... greg mcbride of bankrate.com joins us by skype -- good morning-what did you find? >>1 in 4 americans spent less than they intended this holiday season. only about 1 in 6 spent more than they planned. and that's a percentage that keeps declining every year. this tightfistedness was across the

board. every single age group was more likely to spend less than they planned. in terms of income, it was only the highest income households that spent more than they planned. >>how are consumers feeling about the economy? are they confident or are they losing confidence? >>consumers are actually bringing a lot of optimism into the new year with regard to how they feel about financial security, in particular, feeling good about their job security, net worth, and overall financial situation. >>thanks for that update greg. >>thank you angie. two major retail chains have a huge holiday hangover. j-c penney stock is down roughly 20% since the start of the year. the retailer failed to disclose details about its holiday sales numbers. also, sears holdings has shed nearly a quarter of its value in the opening weeks of 20-14, with the stock dropping to its lowest point in nearly two years. sears sales dwindled nine- percent in the past nine weeks...meantime, shares of tiffany have held steady after the high end jeweller reported a 4% bump in global sales. " you're going to see stores

like jcp and sears boost revenue while profits collapse and luxury goods are going to have a great 2014 & 2015. the xrt, an exchange traded fund that tracks the retail sector, has slipped about 3% this year. target admits online shoppers are a part of its massive holiday hacking scandal. the retailer says up to 110 million customers may have had their cards hacked. analysts say target has done a horrible job handling the crisis. and it needs to release all information to avoid further damage to consumer confidence. target also lowered its earnings expectations for the last three months of 2013 - and says it will close eight underperforming u-s stores in may. as temps dip to record lows across the country, some investors are searching for

stocks to warm their portfolios. running the gamut from the fun to the functional here are a few names...vail resorts, which operates ski resorts in mountain regions.snowmobile manufacturer arctic cat. and columbia sportswear. on the practical side: compass minerals - which provides most of the country's rock salt. johnson & johnson - to treat the season's ailments. and generator manufacturer generac. corn futures shot up on a stunning report from the usda. the futures rallied nearly 5% friday-- when the government cut its forecast on last year corn production due to lower yields. according to the u.s. ag department --- the 2013 corn crop totaled 13.9 billion bushels and half percent decline from last month's estimate. traders and analysts predicting 14 million. president obama continues to remake the federal reserve.following the confirmation of janet yellen as head of the central bank, the president will nominate three new members to the central bank's board of governors. stanley fisher, former head of

the bank of israel, has been tapped as vice chair, while former treasury undersecretary lael brainard was chosen to fill an empty seat on the seven-member fed board. jerome powell, who's served on the board since 20-12, will be re- nominated. the tech company that built the troubled healthcare.gov website-- is out.. the washington post reports the obama administartion is ending its contract wtih c-g-i federal-- the lead contractor of the federal website. according to the paper-- u.s. health officials are expected to sign a $90 million dollar deal with accenture.accenture built californias new online health insurance exchange. the scandal enveloping new jersey governor chris christie could have an economic impact on his state. business insiders have expressed concern that uncertainty and embarassment related to the closing of the george washington bridge in september may have a negative impact at a time when new jersey's economy was showing signs of strength. more millionaires than ever are on capitol hill. more than half of congress have a net worth of

a cool million, according to the center for responsive politics. the most ever in history. the research comes as lawmakers debate issues such as unemployment benefits and minimum wage. the chemical company that's the source of a leak contaminating tap water in charleston, west virginia and nine surrounding counties says it's working to prevent further contamination. but about 300-thousand people were told to use water only for flushing, this past weekend. a 48-thousand gallon tank filled with the compound m-c-h-m, which can cause digestive and breathing problems, was found leaking from freedom industries into the elk river, last thursday.the coal treatment facility is about a mile upstream from the state's largest water treatment plant.stores ran out of bottled water, within hours and numerous businesses closed. salvage companies from 6 nations are bidding for a contract to dismantle the costa concordia. the ship capsized in january of 2012 and remains stuck off the north west coast of italy. it was righted last september. the plan is to tow

away the 114-thousand ton vessel by june. the price tag for the entire clean up operation is an unprecidented $817 million dollars. the largest insider trading case to date involving a former s-a-c manager continues today...in opening arguments friday, prosecutors maintained that mathew martoma "corrupted" medical doctors to gain access to confidential drug trial results.they argue it enabled the hedge fund to turn a $276 million profit.court papers unsealed just before the opening of the trial show martoma was expelled from harvard law school in 1999. allegedly for falsifying grades.martomas is pleading not guilty in the insider trading case. europe's largest car maker may be expanding operations in the u-s. volkswagen is said to favor a tennessee factory as the site to build a new mid-sized suv. entering the growing segment could help boost v-w sales in the u-s. the chattanooga location currently builds the passat model. vw recently topped gm in sales in china.

automakers from around the world will motor to detroit this week to unveil their latest and greatest. fifty new concept and production vehicles are set to debut in the motor city. the highly competitive pickup truck and midsize sedan categories may attract the most attention, with u-s automakers ford and chrylser ready to debut new models. still to come...previewing profits...naming the sectors that closed out 20-13 with a bang...plus,cruising with carnival.what the options market is predicting about the stock's ship to shore performance.and, making sense of a confusing jobs report. why the weak number is getting a strong response from analysts...bill moller explains after the break.

what's wrong with this picture? you heard the government numbers that came out friday.the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 6.7% so you'd expect the number of jobs created would unexpectedly higher. economists predicted 200- thousand jobs were added to payrolls. but it was only 74- thousand - the fewest in almost 3 years. that's crazy to make sense of it we have brent schutte, senior investment strategist with bmo global asset management. this has got to be a fluke. >>i think so. i've talked about huge revisions and how that works with this number being the initial estimate and that ultimately gets revised 2 or 3 times. let me make a point and step back to the bigger and broader picture to bring that out a touch. for 2013 we had 2 million 186 thousand jobs added in the economy which is 7,000 less than last year. adp, which is a private forecasting firm came out on wednesday and they actually estimated that the

payroll report today would be 238 thousand. so the 74 is 164 thousand difference. that is the largest difference you've had in 2 or 3 years. the average difference this year was 18 thousand for those two reports, so it's tiny. if you look at adp for the full year it was 2 million, 154 jobs added. >>so we're clearly going to see some kind of significant revision. in fact, the numbers that we get for january could be much higher. >>i think so. i've talked about ism on this show over and over again. if you look at those 2 employment indexes in the month of december, they both were above 55. in fact, if you combine them they were 56. in past periods, when you've had that type of optimism in the manufacturing sector, you've had 240 thousand average job growth. so, it's not consistent. it's not the same all the time but on average it's about 240 so it should be revised higher. >>let's assume you're right. what about growth for 2014? any sense about that?

>>i actually think growth is getting better. ive been pretty optimistic for the last 6 or 7 months and we've seen some better growth numbers. everything that i'm looking at right now continues to point to the fact that you could get growth on 3% numbers in 2014 and if you actually had things go right you could probably get to 4%, so i actually think the economy's getting better. there could be an exogenous shock that happens but right now i don't see that on the horizon. >>brent schutte, thanks so much. >>thank you. thank you bill--- still to come...can carnival cruise keep moving full steam ahead? drifting -- why some traders are drifting toward the stock..that's later in chart talk.. and why the banks maybe poised to report supersized profits this earnings season.. but tech may be in trouble.a preview of what to expect is straight ahead...

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about the amount of money corporate america is earning or losing. sheraz mian of zacks.com joins us now with his take on what to expect from 4th quarter reports. good morning and welcome back to the show. >>sure. good to be here. >>overall, what are we looking at here for the s&p 500? >>most of them have been making a lot of money. nobody's losing money. this week the focus is on the banks. we have jp morgan, citibank, wells fargoall the major banks reporting results. banks overall will be driving the earnings growth in q4. 20% earnings growth for the finance sector as a whole, 6.3% for the s&p 500. if you strip out finance the growth for the s&p drops to about half of the overall rate---about 3.5%. a big reason for that is easy comparisons. the 4th quarter of 2012 was kind of a low point for the finance sector. bank of america particularly has very easy comparisons. >>easy comparisons and easy money. the federal reserve is helping so interest rates are

low and then the banks are turning around and making money in the stock market as well which is going higher. they are in a win-win, golden years kind of situation. >>it is. that's a fair point. and on top of that, they are releasing some of the reserves they held back for bad times and now that credit quality is improving they are releasing those reserves and that's juicing their profitability as well. so overall it's a good earnings environment for banks but on the negative side, loan growth is kind of anemic. the mortgage business is going away. >>i think the banks are going to survive just fine. let's talk about transportation. airline stocks have been rallying of late. is that a sign that corporate profits are also doing well? >>corporate profits overall are at record levels. the 3rd

quarter of 2013 was an all time record which beat the record in q2 and most likely q4 would be in the same ballpark. so yes, transportation sector as a whole is expected to have double digit earnings growth. airlines are doing good, the railroads are doing good, the truckers are doing good. the picture and these economically sensitive sectors is pretty good. >>what about tech? >>tech is kind of downbeat. we haven't really seen much earnings growth in tech lately. the picture is going to stay kind of subdued in q4 as well. the consumer side of tech is doing better. the enterprise side is not so hot. >>thanks for coming on the show sheraz. >>no problem. still ahead--why carnival cruise is making waves in the options market and one trader says its high time to get on board. chart talk is next.

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james ramelli of keeneonthe market.com joins us now. james, you're here to talk about carnival cruise's stock. with some people jumping ship but you say now's the time to get on board. what do you see in the charts? >>the reason that we're looking at carnival at these levels is because of a huge blocked trade that we saw on wednesday. we saw a trader come in and aggressively buy the january 2015 39 ½ calls. these were the at the money calls expiring a year from now in january of 2015. they were buying these aggressivelypaying anywhere from $3.60 to $3.80. by the end of the day almost 20 thousand of these had traded in what

amounted to almost a 7 million dollar bet by this trader. that ccl is going to head higher through this year and into january of next year. this is the biggest order we've seen this year and one of the biggest orders i've seen in a while. i really like this setup for a couple of different reasons. one is that ccl lagged in the market last year. after we've had a huge run in the overall market like that we're gonna see investors coming in at the beginning of the year looking for things that might be cheap or undervalued. now, ccl is up only 11% over those 12 months so i think at these levels it has some huge upside room to run and especially with all of this institutional money coming in such size. i think it's a great setup for me. it's currently my biggest position. >>when you say there's gonna be a run up, what are you looking at? what's your price target? >well, they came in and bought the at the money calls which is a little less aggressive than if they had bought out of the money calls. trying to develop a price target for january 2015 is very difficult using options because there's so much time premium left in those options with a whole year left to go. i

have taken some very nice profits already. i think i'm just gonna keep a tight stop on it and watch it run higher and continue to take profits off at levels. >>great to have you on the show. thank you james. >>thank you. it's time for us to jump out of here for today.coming up tomorrow-- a top exec from ford will be here with the details on breaking news coming out this week. plus tell us what else is down the road for the car company...but for now...from all of us at first business, thanks for watching and have a good monday!

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