the connection between wild weather and even wilder moves in the market. in today's cover story.... automakers scramble to rule the road with *millenial car buyers. plus ... how smartphones could put some electronics companies out of business. and...if you want an olympic inspired vacation minus the price tag... some deals that will make you feel like an all american. first business starts now! you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning! it's monday, february 10th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: will stocks keep bouncing? it's all green on the screen as the dow made a triple digit leap friday...the nasdaq up 69..and the s&p is closing in on 1,800. oil was the other big mover oil edging above $100

dollars per barrel. stocks and commodities rallied. as "some" on wall street viewed the january jobs data as "not bad". 113,000 were added to payrolls last month. well below the 180,000 anticipated. and the unemployment rate dipped to 6.6% from 6.7% in december. and, moody's downgrades puerto rico debt to junk status.. following a similar move by s&p. the ratings service cites ongoing economic weakness. phillip streible of rjo futures joins us on this monday to talk about the stock market and more. good to have you on the show this morning. >>thanks for having me. let's start with the big chillfrom oil to job growthwe're hearing the weather is really having an effect on the market. >>if you look at the stock marketwe saw an initial sell off that was pretty hard. but as the day went on we came right back up and finished up near the highs. it was a pretty amazing move. i think the market

at least is focused on the economy and is still showing some signs of job growth. we are seeing economic data tick up. we did see the unemployment rate tick down while the participation rate also increased. so that's really great. if you look at the oil market on the other handwe've seen a big move up through $100. the issue with that is we're seeing refineries shutting in for maintenance. so that means no new heating oil is being put out on the market. so if you see another one of these cold fronts come through in the next week or so that heating and oil demand is gonna spike up and we don't have any new supplies out there so that drives up the price of crude oil. >>we're also hearing about this big rotation of money coming out of the stock market and going into bonds. is that any kind of buy signal? if you look at the stock market we had such a big move up last year. this type of correction we're

seeingthis 5-10% pullbackis completely justifiable. plus the fed is starting to ease back and really coming out with the tapering right now. so you're just seeing some of the gas being let off and the bond market. eventually you're gonna see these interest rates rise. right now they're contracting but i think there's gonna be a turn back around and i think that being long the stock market again and being short bondsi think that's gonna be the new way to go. >>that's a play. thank you very much philip. >>thank you. the weather is considered one reason for the slow down in job growth...however, there are also concerns weakness in hiring in december is continuing into the new year. still scott wren, senior equity strategist at wells fargo, says he is not changing his investment strategy. "overall, the jobs number to me was less terrible than the december data and it just confirms to me that we're in a modest growth, modest inflation environment. we have been in for the past several years, and probably will be for the next couple of years." hiring for construction jobs

and manufacturing showed surprising strength in the jobs report for jaunary. while-- the government slimmed down by sheding 29,000 positions. brighter days are ahead for the retail sector. despite dreary data in january...the national retail federation expects sales growth to increase by 4.1% this year -- up from 3.7 % last year -- as shoppers feel more optimistic about economic growth. trae bodge of retail- me-not says consumer sentiment is overwhelmingly positive. "we did ask consumers how they were feeling about the year ahead and about 70% of people felt that they were going to be able to save more, that they were gonig to be able to earn more and that they would be able to buy the things that they needed this year. so that was really encouraging." the harsh winter weather may have consumers moving online to shop. sales on the web could rise up to 12% this year. as a result of the massive hack attack at target-- by october of 2015, americans may no longer swipe credit cards and sign reciepts-- they will

instead use pin numbers according to the wall street journal. the target hackers may have used a contractor connection to break into the retailer's data network. bitcoin prices are plunging on technical problems. mt. gox-- bitcoin's major exchange -- halted withdrawals after an increase in traffic caused problems in its system. the company says " it is necessary for a temporary pause on all withdrawal requests, to obtain a clear technical view of the current processes." last week, apple dropped its bitcoin app from its i-store. bitcoin prices fell 20 percent on friday, and closed at $725.01. that is not all that is happening at apple.. the wall street journal reports apple has purchased $12 billion of its own stock through an accerated share repurchase program and $2 billion from the open market. that brings its stock buy back to$40 billion during the past year. the eventual goal is $60. ceo tim cook tells the journal it's a sign of confidence in the company.

the national security agency is tracking fewer cell phone calls than once thought. the wall street journal reports the agency only collects information on about 20% of calls made on phones. the n-s-a has struggled to keep up with the massive rise in cell phone use. meanwhile pushback of data collection continues. tens of thousands of groups are expected to participate in a one-day of protest against the n-s-a, tomorrow. wall street analysts are trying to decipher trends coming from the health care sector.. friday-- cigna reported an 11% profit decline. the health insurance company-- lost members and spent more on medical expenses. last week- aenta produced results that missed by a penny. by earnings were up 43% from a year ago. and the health insurer signed on a record number of members. wellpoint was the most upbeat of all. indicating that enrollment under obamacare has strongly increased membership. a smaller loss at the u-s postal service this quarter could have come from online shopping. the usps lost $354 million in the first quarter, less than the $1.3 billion loss

last year. revenues from shipping and package delivery grew 14 percent, or $479 million from online shopping.. and a deal with amazon to deliver packages on sundays in some cities. a jump in gas prices is likely down the road... winter weather, weak demand and oversupply supply is holding prices in check for now. but triple a warns prices tend to rise in the spring as refiners starts to shut down for maintenance and eventually switch over to more expensive summer blends. triple a predicts the national average this year will peak between $3.55 and $3.75 per gallon of unleaded. a few cents lower than last year. the current national average -- is $3.26 down a nickel from a month ago. in today's cover story... the nation's largest consumer auto show opens in chicago... with car makers featuring models designed to woo a segment of the market that doesn't have a lot to spend... and is being perceived as elusive. " everyone wants to grow their market share" one way to grab consumers' attention is with flashy new

models... and cool concept cars. but venture deeper into the exhibits and you find some manufacturers... especially luxury brands... are spotlighting compact cars to attract young customers -- like cadillac's a-t-s. " it is selling at double the rate in an important age group, under 34 years old." cadillac says the younger demo wants features that aren't always visible on the outside... such as connectivity between their vehicle and the rest of their digital life... and electric options... like the e- l-r has. "it's the first luxury hybrid vehicle from a full-line manufacturer" b-m-w is also touting two plug-in cars... concept-looking models that will actually be available at dealers later this year. with a name that begins with a lower case "i"... it's easy to guess who b-m-w is targeting with its first-ever pure- battery electric vehicle. " what makes ibrand -- the i3 and i8 are in chicago -- unique is that every aspect of it from a sustainability point of view has been considered."

this year... the show encouraged each car maker to invite 300 'favorite' customers for a preview... the day before the opening... and unveiled a new marketing approach appealing to generation y -- by allowing attendees to sign up for text updates on show events through their cell phone... using a communication tool adopted by hundreds of dealers. " young buyers want to be communicated with using text messaging and want to buy using mobile devices. text2drive provides a car dealer the ability to communicate with customers through texting." younger drivers may also be cash-strapped... so both b-m-w and cadillac say they are focused on expanding their lines by introducing cars with a lower price-point to appeal to millennials. hawaii lawmakers are considering ending taxes on groceries. hawaii's high cost of living and high poverty rates are prompting the calls to lift the tax. the average family would save around $200 million per year, while it could cost the state around $200 million the first year. 36 states to date do not tax groceries. hawaii may also double tax credits for renters who earn less than $30,000.

go-pro is going public. the video camera maker, popular with thrill seekers, will jump into the stock market soon. it's filed for a confidential ipo to keep the process under wraps. but there are reports, fox-conn has a 9% stake in the company. foxconn notably had some bad press following allegations of harsh working conditions in asia. the compact camera company faces competition from google and samsung. still to come:

as big money flows into one homebuilder stock...trader is constructing a profit plan. will the weather forecast continue to hurt hiring? and how gadgets that" do it all" are having an unexpected ripple effect on the economy. that's next!

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smartphones and tablets are

overacheivers. the ability to play music, route a road trip, email and text is causing huge price drops in other electronics. ky sisson reports. you may consider them fundamental commodities you use everyday your computer, your dvd player, or gps devices. but as ky sisson reports, sales of these items are dropping and new, cheaper alternatives are making consumers rethink their options. it's hard to think of something your smartphone can't do these days, and many consumers are catching on. free gps routing apps are being blamed for the 92% plumet in gps device sales in 2013. and the same goes for digital cameras that dropped 44% last year. i use my smartphone to take photos rather than a digital camera because it's cheraper and more accessible to me. tablets are now able to do much of what a desktop or laptop computer can do such as share photos, play music, and surf the web. new data shows worldwide shipments for pc's? fell 4% in 2012 from a year prior. another industry being squeezed is cable tv, which has been losing subscribers since 2004

to the dominating internet based subscription companies netflix and hulu-- both save you money and time. i can watch all my tv shows in a short amount of timewhere as if i had commercials, it would take 2 weeks, and lots of money and i don;t want to pay for cable or anything like that. with online viewing of tv and movies becoming more mainstream, dvd sales are plummeting as are dvd and blu ray players, which saw a 20.1% decrease in 2012. travelers are feeling the pinch at hotels as demand rises and nightly rates climbed 4.1% in 2013. diane vinh rents a spare room in her home just a few blocks from disneyland on air bnb dot com. she has hosted nearly thirty guests from the site saving her visitors hundreds of dollars on their vacation. they save at least $40 a day and over a week, that is $280. traditional taxi companies are feeling the heat as new apps like lyft and uber offer "ride sharing" where passengers are connected with drivers in their own cars with a promise of a less expensive ride.

from what i've experienced it's been a lot cheaper than taking a regular taxicab not alot of hidden fees...they're very xtraightforward with you as to what to expect. in los angeles, ky sisson, first business news. landline phone service is also on the way out as roughly 90 million adults in the u.s. are going wireless. and forget 2-year cell phone contracts. mobile users are opting to pay full price for their cell phones and in return, monthly payments can be less than half what they would be under contract. as hedge funds moving into one homebuilder stock should you follow enter a postion... that's on tap in chart talk. plus...can you really blame the jobs report on the weatherman? that's straight ahead, with bill moller after this in the know message.

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a lot of economists were predicting 2014 would be a year of steady growth and gain - but so far it's been a bust. the markets have been lagging and a key component of the economy - jobs growth, hasn't materialized? so, what's

happening? jack ablin is the chief investment officer for bmo private bank. the jobs numbers came out friday - well below what a lot of smart people were expecting and i can'tbelieve it was all because of the weather. >>it's funny. it's tough to blame the weather. it's like blaming your dog for your homework. i will say this time around speaking from the epicenter of the polar vortexit is cold! and it means we run around when we can but when we're home, we stay home. personally with my family we have canceled dinner plans with peoplewe haven't gone out. >>so businesses are canceling projects? they're not hiring on? >>even bmo was closed for a day. at the height of the cold we had a number of branches close. so i certainly think it has impacted the service side of the jobs picture. but is it the entire excuse for everything? no. i think there are some disappointments. >>where do you stand on the year ahead?

>>i'm still optimistic. although, keep in mind that when we started the year, the s&p was somewhat overvalued relative to fundamentals. and i was hopeful that perhaps the fundamentalslike revenues and earningswould catch up to meet the current expectations. right now we're not seeing that so what's happening is prices are coming down to meet the fundamentals. and i do think at some point once they convergewe're not too far from there. we could see an interesting buying opportunity. >>so you don't think the fed was premature in tapering the stimulus? >>keep in mind that they have been talking about for the last several months that tapering is not tightening and i do believe that. what they are trying to do is just move to the sidelines, remove as much excess liquidity from the system as they can. keep in mind that when they first started putting liquidity in the system it did help prevent us from falling off the edge of the table. as they increasingly used it, it hasn't

helped the economy much. it's helped asset values but it really hasn't helped economic growth. so i don't think taking it off the table is going to hurt the economy in any way. >>so a sad one in the year ahead for jobs and the economy. >>i think that as the weather improves, the job picture will too. >>jack ablinthanks so much. >>thank you. we like that optimism bill! still to come-- a stock in the home building sector that could get the pile on effect in the options market. chart talk is next. ♪ ♪ ♪

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andrew keenepresident of keene on the market dot com joins us now for monday morning chart talk. good to see you on the show today. >>thanks for having me angie. >>you are bringing us a building stock. what do you see in tol brothers? >>every single day i watch

institutional order flows so i see the massive bets being placed throughout every single stock8700 stocks and 4600 with options. so on friday a trader came in and bought 16 thousand tol september 37 calls. they paid $3.70 for these. if you look at the chart on the daily chartit's overlapping. when the market gets crushed it doesn't go down that much and when the market outperforms it doesn't go up that much. so i think it can break through this 37. i think it's clear sailing up to 40. this is the biggest institutional dollar amount bet i have seen this year. >>why do you think they're doing that? any trader instincts? >>the last big one i saw was cclcarnival cruise lines. that stock ripped to the upside. we saw 2015 call buyer. if you think about the stock marketand we have been so volatile this yearwhy are we having so much of this volatility? a lot of it has to do with china and the emerging markets. tol does home building in the united states.

so the united stateswhich i think is the best house in a bad neighborhoodthis is a housing play. it's stock specific. yes, tol will move with the market. they have about 3000 employees across 19 states. i think the u.s. economy is starting to get better. we've already had tapering now twice so the tapering volatility is out of the market. i think the market's gonna continue higher this year. i think once tol takes out 37.50 it's on its way to 40. >>well thank you and have a good day. >>thank you angie. that's it for our show today...coming up tomorrow-- a hedge fund manager will be here to reveal the latest money making strategy in the industry. find out if it's worth the risk. from all of us at first business...have a great monday.

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