why economists are crossing off the days until spring. in today's cover story.... setback in the sky ...how a lack of pilots could cause trouble in the air. plus... snow and ice paralyzes small business hiring. and..... why the recent drought in california is both a blessing and a curse for vineyards... first business starts now! you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good monday morning...it's march 3rd. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: stocks run hot & cold. the s&p made it to new record territory friday. even after going into the red during the session on concerns about the situation between the ukraine and russia. in the end the dow rallied 49 points, the nasdaq dropped 11 and the s&p up 5. all told it was a fablous

february for stocks... dow clinched 4% in gains. the s&p 4.3% and, nasdaq 5% mixed news about the economy came into the market friday. 4th quarter gdp was revised down from 3.2% to 2.4. while manufacturing numbers out of chicago took wall street by surprise by improving slightly from january. from the retail department...bloomberg news reports the secret service is investing sears for a suspected hack attack. sears insists its security was not breached. and the wall street journal reports jcrew is in talks to be sold to a japanese retail company. trader daniel stecich of athena advisor services is joining us now to talk about this market reaction to the gdp. what do you think daniel? > >i don't think we saw any

surprises on the gdp. they were pretty much expected where it came at. what's more surprising to me is that they make these robust announcements early on and then they all kind of fade away. all things being said, the market reacted well to it so i don't think there's any problem going forward. > >what do you think about all these shorts that have been piling into the market, getting it wrong...what are they to do and will this pile continue? > >the shorts are getting in for the wrong reason. you had a lot of screaming from the rooftops about how the sky is gonna fall and it didn't fall. you have to be a little more flexible than that and look at things over a time period. is there a possibility they could be right? there's always a possibility but unless i see fundamental change in the economy i don't think they're gonna get it. > >we have a jobs number coming up on friday. care to take a stab? > >the be all and the end all on the number. but you know what, i'm gonna go high. let's say 230 thousand on the non-farm number and i won't be surprised if it's 100 thousand either way of that. the market doesn't seem

to be reacting as well as we want but one of these days it's going to catch up. it's the one part of the economy that didn't catch up and when it finally does, this stock market is off to the races. > >thank you daniel. > >you're very welcome. thanks for having me. as winter storm "titan" leaves behind a wintery mix of snowy and ice...economists say it could be late spring before the economy shakes off the chill. "i do expect the trendline to keep going up and being on a gradual rise throught the year for the economy. so, yes, we hope it gets better by spring, but actually the numbers that come out lag, so really it's going to be may before we see what the real impact of the weather has been and what the consumer is really thinking." susan schmidt of mesirow financial says a bright spot for the economy is businesses spending money on new equipment and other investments. now over to chuck coppola who has the latest on the minimum wage controversy.

angie...president obama will connect with voters in connecticut this week. it's the next stop on a campaign to raise the federal minimum wage to 10.10 an hour. connecticut governor dan malloy is an advocate of the wage proposal. however --- the issue has deeply divided washington, especially following a recent report from the congressional budget office that magnified the possibility of job losses. meantime... the white house says software companies adobe and prezi are donating 400 million dollars to schools. it's part of a white house effort to update technology with private investment. apple shares could move today.. off of news coming from the company's shareholder meeting. friday, shareholders re-elected its board of directors. and backed a plan awarding stock to employees and ceo tim cook says the tech giant will have will have an update within 60 days on its cash policies. and a far as new innovations. cook says its apple is investing heavily in it's next set of products and sold more than $1 billion dollars worth of apple tv set boxes, seaworld is questioning the

ethics of an investigator looking into the death of one of its trainers. the theme park filed a complaint with the labor department alleging that an occupational safety and health administrator investigator fraternized with makers of the documentary black fish. the controversial film has caused several entertainers to pull performances from seaworld. bitcoin investors are suing over missing money. mtgox is being sued for negligence and fraud after hundreds of millions of dollars of the crypto- currency were suddenly wiped out last week. mt gox says a weakness in its system caused the losses. it has filed for bankruptcy protection. also, investment firm fortress revealed it lost 8 million dollars through it's bitcoin investments. and a rare encouraging moment for the currency. china's largest bitcoin exchange watched trading volumes explode 69% friday. citigroup is cutting its 20-13 forecast after finding fraud in its mexico unit. the bank's mexico branch loaned $585 million to a mexican oil services company. the company, oceanografia, was later found be suspended by the government. citigroup lost about $400 million on the transactions, and the impact

will lower 20-13 profit by $235 million. the bank - still stinging from the 2008 financial collapse - says the fraud was isolated to that particular client. it's not often the words: "free", "checking" and "bank" are in the same sentence. greg mcbride of bankrate.com is here to explain.good morning. why is it so rare greg? > >it has become increasingly rare over the past few years because of regulatory changes that have really changed the economics of checking accounts. so now instead of banks doling out that free checking to everybody that walks through the door, they're reserving that for customers that tend to have other accounts, products, or larger balances with the bank. > >what's the situation at credit unions? > >that's a bit of a different story. not only was the decline very modest over the past several years but it hasn't changed at all in the last year. bankrate.com latest survey of the largest credit unions finds that 72% of the nation's

largest credit unions still offer a standalone free checking account and nearly all of them do if you have something like electronic statements and/or direct deposit. > >good to know. thank you greg. > >thank you angie. general motors and ford are extending deep discounts on certain models through march the automakers are hoping to lure customers back after the harsh winter. the biggest discounts are on full-size pickups but many dealers are cutting prices across the board. tesla's bonds are turning out to be just about as hot as the stock. tesla intended to sell $1.6 billion worth of debt. but wound up increasing the offering to $2 billion. and according to the financial times, that number may swell to $2.3 billion due to strong demand. the electric car company is selling bonds to help finance a massive battery factory. tesla shares are up almost 70% for the year. losing weight is a challenge -- and in certain cases so is avoiding getting ripped off by a health club. in the last year, consumers slammed the better business bureau with thousands of complaints of contract disputes and billing issues with gyms. steve bernas of the bbb says consumers are accusing

gyms of running scams. "very rarely do you run into a scam, you more often run into a bad business -- they actually have a perenial problem. they are operating illegally, they are very unethical or they treat people in a manner that you would not want to be treated. there's rarely scams that occur...usually those are the health clubs that guarantee you can lose weight..you just have to send us some money..things of that nature. but those are far and few between." bernas says studying the fine print on contracts is critical...and stresses try to negotiate details before you sign on the dotted line, that's when gym operators are more flexible. it's official-- grubhub is going public. the online food ordering company filed for an ipo. grubhub, merged with seamless last year. it will trade under ticker symbol "grub" on the new york stock exchange.

this thursday-- coupon company-- coupons.com is expected to place shares on the market that could range between $12-14 dollars per share. the ticker to look for is c-o-u-p. and biotech company "recro pharma" is also slated to debut stock, with shares pricing in range of $10-$12 dollars under ticker r-e-p-h. advertisers are smiling following the big night at the oscar's. pepsico, mcdonalds and american express and cadillac all made an appearence during the big show. the show continues to gain a massive following on traditional and social media. this year, oscar ad prices shot up to 1.8 million dollars for 30 seconds of air time. southern california is finally receving some much needed rain. but the unusually dry winter still has many crop growers bracing for the worst. ky sisson takes us to riverside county, california where wineries are encountering both doom... and boom! every morning greg pennyroyal checks the forecast to see if rain is coming his way. without water we would be out of business. normally this time

of year, i would have anywhere from 12-18 inches. keeping his vineyard alive is the challenge he faces as the vineyard manager at wilson creek winery in temecula, california. to make up for the lack of rain, pennyroyal has had to turn on the irrigation system in january, -- something normally not necessary until spring. no one has ever turned on their water this early, it's unheard of. the grapes are coming out too early and if late season rain continues, frost cold kill half of his crop. this is a good three weeks earlier than normal. not only is it earlier and its dry and i have to add more irrigation, but there is still a possibility we might get some late season rains, but with the late season rains, i have an increased chance of frost. if i get a frost, i'm gonna lose all these. with unusually high winter temperatures plaguing vineyards

across california, tourism to wineries is flourishing. the irony of the drought this year is that the weather has been so nice that the restaurants and events have broken records almost every weekend, we've had great customer response. the rest of the country's extreme winter weather is bringing many to southern california. it's been so cold in illinois, and it's been great being in california for the weather and the wine! the restaurant is doing a happy dance and i'm out in the vineyard praying for more rain. as hot winters continue to dry up agriculture in california, pennyroyal says there is a need to change the biology of plants, something he is already in the process of doing. i think what this signals is a change the more resiliency there is the biology, the more resiliency you have for plant stress, and of course drought is one of the big ones. even though conditions are tough, he sees his wine glass half full, not half empty. i think that is actually going to improve the quality of wines and the experience of wine country. in temecula, california, ky sisson, first business news. unlike other retail products, wine prices fluctuate based on quality, not the cost of production. putting pressure on wineries to improve quality to

keep up with the added expenses from the drought. still to come: hiring freeze..small businesses face an unexpected setback this winter. plus... is a pilot shortage worse than once thought? and ... how delays and cancellations are "adding up" for one airline. but first...a consumer website surveyed first time moms to weigh in on the best new baby products on the market today. here's a look at the "what-to- expect-dot com" awards in today's in the know message.

united arlines faces financial frost bite. severe snow storms, especially in the chicago area where united is based resulted in more than 22,0000 flight cancellations this winter. analysts forecast united will have a larger than expected loss for this quarter. and that the weather effect was rougher on united than american and delta. united shares have risen approximately 23% from the start of the year.

in our cover story---if you fly on large commercial airliners, you will likely see a big change in the cockpit over the next ten years----younger pilots taking over for thousands about to reach mandatory retirement age. but it's predicted to leave a lot of regional carriers stranded at the gate. regional carriers that fly to america's smaller communities could face a severe pilot shortage...as thousands of their pilots move up to bigger airlines to replace 18- thousande pilots about to retire. according to the government accounting office, there aren't enough pilots coming from the military or private flying schools to make up the difference, some blame a combination of low pay. regional carriers start at $22,400 a year--too low pilots say to attract new candidates...on top of that, minimum flying experience for regional carriers was raised from 250-hours to 15-hundred hours. mandated by the f-a-a after a 2009 regional carrier

crash in buffalo, new york. "the faa need to look at hours based on the type of plane youi're in instead of a one- size-fits-all requirement that if you meet it, come on in and try to be a pilot." the study found nearly all of the 12 regional carriers surveyed "reported difficulties filling entry-level vacancies" one regional carrier, republic airways advertizes hiring now-- and a six-thousand dollar signing bonus---recruiting efforts necessary after republic announced plans to take more than 10% of its planes out of service due to not enough pilots. "we've never seen in 30-years of aviation watching that planes may be grounded because of lack of pilots and airlines

refusing to raise salaries, perhaps for fear that once raised, they never go back down." the g-a-o report also found that from 2000-to-2012, pilot salaries went down an average of nine and half percent. coming up...running with the bulls...one trader is watching a shoe stock with potential.plus... why 20-14 is throwing small businesses a curve ball. that's up next with bill moller.

this eternal winter of 2014 has been a damper on people buying

everything from cars to clothes. it's also been an impediment on businesses large and small. this is reflected in various reports including the february small business scorecard. michael alter is the president and ceo of surepayroll which turns out the widely watched monthy small business snapshot. your report suggests, it might be more than the weather holding small businesses back right now. >>right and i think it's a little unfortunate because i think we were all expecting a strong start to the new year. i think what we've seen is a little bit of the opposite of that. some of it obviously has to do with the weather but we've had bad weather problems before. i think this might be a little bit deeper. if you look at our data, the hiring index is down 0.1 month over month. the pay index is down 0.1 month over month. so we really aren't seeing any growth. we're seeing a slight decline. >>what's interesting is the optimism of small businesses. that actually went up. >>the optimism number went from 65 to 69. so it's decent optimism but i would put that

all in the rough range of margin of error going from 65 to 69. it's not a huge change to me. >>but it still is relatively strong. my take on it would be that they're aware that there are some struggles right now but they think that 2014 looking ahead is going to be better. >>yeah i think that small business owners by definition are optimistic about the future will look like. you certainly see some of that in the optimism numbers. to me the real question is will they start hiring when the spring thaw comes. >>i know one reason they don't hire and i was looking at your numbers on thisthey're worried about paying another wage. >>right. to add another employee is expensive and you've got to be confident that you have the revenues in your business to drive that. and right now the biggest challenge absent of the winter and the weather is that there's just not enough demand in small businesses to force them to have to hire somebodyto drive them to want to incur that extra expense. >>what's the actual stat on that point? >>so 3 in 5 small business owners are saying that they can't afford that.

>>well let's hope that next month the thaw will finally kick in and we'll see some brightness. >>let's hope. thank you. thanks for that update bill...still ahead a trader who is jumping into nike stock with both feet. chart talk is next.

talking to veterans about the real issues they're dealing with can be awkward and uncomfortable. we think to ourselves, "i never served. how could i understand? they'll talk about it when they're ready." and then we wonder why they don't want to talk. but when their behavior changes, when they withdraw to themselves, increase substance use, or even talk about hurting themselves, it's time to act. because if we don't, our families and relationships will suffer. ask the hard questions. listen to the veterans in your life and show you care.

make the call. it matters. when you recognize a veteran is in crisis, call the veterans crisis line at 1-800-273-8255 and press "1".

andrew keene, president of keene on the market dot com joins us on this monday morning. happy monday once again. you always seem to join us on mondays. i love that andrew. > >yep. i love mondays. > >i do too. let's talk about nike. you might want to talk about this because it looks like it might jump higher. > >yeah, there's a couple of things i always look at. one of them is institutional order flows so i watch options being traded. and i'm not talking about a 10 lot, 1 20 lot, a 100

lot--i'm watching for big blocks of prints. so last week on friday we saw a trader come in and buy 5,000--2 weeks from friday--nike 78 calls. they paid $1.10. these exploded to the upside and went to about $1.40. so someone thinks there's more upside in nike. so i think about that unusual option activity, the i bring up the chart. nike looks like a clear channel up to 80 if not higher. we see institutional call buyer in nike 3 times over the last 2 weeks. > >wow. nike at 80 or above. moving onto ecana. this is also a stock that you're watching. > >last time i was on the show i talked about newstar--ns--and we saw a very similar thing. ns has not worked out yet but this is why i trade the option market instead of stock. if i was actually in ns that we talked about last week then i might have gotten stopped out but i have call options. the most i can ever lose when i buy a call is the amount that i paid for the call. so in ecana we have seen very similar actions than we've seen in ns. we've

seen unusual call activity to the upside in april and in july. they bought 3 different strikes. someone thinks that ecana can get through 19.60-- even up to about 23 dollars. we've seen call activity on the july 21's, july 22's, and july 23's. once again, i do not trade this via stock. i trade it through the option market. i'm long july calls in ecana. i think this stock can break through 19.60. there's something going on with them selling some of their assets. it could explode and all it needs is one upgrade or one analyst to like it. it could be at 20 in a heartbeat. > >thank you andrew and you need no caffeine. terrific job. thanks a lot. > >thank you. as the stock market rockets to record highs. retirement savings plans for most americans are also soaring higher. coming up on tuesday, tips on investing in your company's 401k program. don't miss it. from all of us at first business.. we wish you a great start to your week.

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