earnings kickoff... why traders could be in for several surprises from corporate america this week. in today's cover story.... how entrepreneurs are aiming to make more money off of a generation with less cash. the road ahead for general motors... can it reboot it's reputation given the recall scandal. and... microsoft's major lift this week. does the company have apple to thank? that's all ahead on today's first business! good morning! it's wednesday, march 19th! i'm bill moller. angela is off. in today's first look: team usa- team usa. ceo's of u.s. companies are pumped up about the prospects for the

economy this year. the business roundtable has a ceo outlook index and it's higher than it's been in 2 years. and more chief executives say they plan to spend more and hire more in the next 6 months. such enthusiasm was reflected in the performance of the main indexes. which for the 2nd day were all up. gold fell to a one week low. oil gained a $1.53. in earnings after hours.... oracle fell after reporting earnings fell shy of wall street's expectations. software sales were up, but lower than hoped for. adobe was in the green last night after revealing to investors that earnings beat the street. it says demand is up. with honda and gm recalls announced this month, it's surprising to note that nearly a third of car owners ignore recalls. that fact comes from the national transportation safety board. however when fatalities resulted from a recall, as in gm's case, the response rate goes up. well the federal reserve bank wraps up its two day meeting of the policy-making committee

today. larry shover with s f g alternatives, what do you think is going to happen and how is the reaction going to be in the markets from what the fed is doing? > > yeah like right now it seems like the market is out fledgling by its itself and it really is looking for qualitative measures coming from yellen. everybody expects the $10 billion taper-- that's not the issue. we need to get rid of the 6 and 1/2 percent unemployment rate, two percent inflation threshold and start talking deeper. i think that's what yellen's going to deliver and that's what the market is suggesting. > > and you were telling me earlier you think it's qualitative rather than quantitative in terms of guidance. > > yeah exactly qualitative meaning participation rates , quit rate, hire rate, who is working part-time for economic reasons-- those things matter given the huge slack in our labour markets right now. > > larry, gold continues to

drop, i know you watch that what's your thinking? > > i do, i think that it's basically lost some air given what's going on or hasn't gone on in the ukraine russia. so obviously we've got some risk premium coming out of the gold price, but also we have to keep in mind there are a lot of stale lungs in the market. people who got long to gold two years ago and are looking for a way out, and we have seen an increase in inventory coming out of china last week. > > in just a few seconds, larry. what's driving the market: earnings that are just under way for the quarter? > > yes earnings is some of it, but also growth metrics. we get our big first growth metric monday from with a flash p m i. we can't continue to blame things on weather so that's going to be the first real growth metric to markets we're looking at. > > larry shover, thank you so much. have a good day out there. > > you're welcome. russian stocks get socked. look what russia's growing economic isolation over the crimean annexation is doing to stocks there. russia's main stock exchange has lost 17% in the past two weeks as investors pull their money out of the country. images of violence could cause mutual funds & other investors to pull the $325 billion that have flowed into russian stocks and bonds over the past 4 years. if the outflow of cash increases and is sustained for a long period, the effect could be crippling to the russian economy. here's diane moca with

information on developments in the banking sector. here's diane moca with information on developments in the banking sector. thanks bill... traders will keep an eye on the financial sector this week. that's as the federal reserve prepares to release "stress test" results on thursday. the tests were created by regulators in order to ensure banks have enough capital in order to withstand the possibility of another financial crisis. it's the fourth round of tests since 2009. this round of tests could determine how much money banks can return to shareholders in dividends and share buy-back plans. banks have slowly been increasing those plans throughout the economic recovery. the bulls are back on wall street and wealthy investors are looking for bargains. high net worth investor confidence is surging to its highest point in about 6 years. this comes from devere group. 57% of those in the survey were feeling bullish about the investment outlook over the next 12 months. that's up 4 percentage points from last year. investors are more confident, they are seeing more economic activity around them, and these are people who, by nature are traveling alot and in touch with business and they

are picking up to quote the beach boys -- good vibrations that was tom elliot of devere group he says these wealthy investors must figure out to what extent good news is already priced into the market, since stock markets typically work ahead of economic realities. however-- 77% of high net worth investors said they are committed to investing more over the next year. in china, if you have money, you don't stick around. the rich are fleeing their homeland to escape the smog. the 'hurun research institute' did a survey and found 64% of china's wealthy are emmigrating to other countries or are planning to do so. that's up from 60% 2 years ago. fortune magazine cites a chinese study calling air-polluted cities like beijing, "unlivable." where are they going? america and canada... also the european countries of cyprus, portugal and britian. a new survey shows that many

americans are drastically unprepared for retirement. according to the employee benefit research institute, 36% of workers have less than a thousand dollars saved for retirement. not surprisingly a key part of the equation is if people have actually set up a 401-k or ira plan. of those who have done so, 90% have saved for retirement wheras among those without accounts, only 1 in 5 have saved. bankrupt mount gox is allowing its bitcoin-exchange customers to view their account balances. in late february... mt gox's website and its millions in bitcoins were silmultaneously wiped clean. the company filed for bankruptcy protection on february 28th... saying it had been hacked and its bitcoins stolen. on its updated site... mt gox makes it clear that viewing balances does not mean the currency is available to them. meanwhile, the u.s. treasury weighed in on bitcoin yesterday... saying that the virtual currency must fit into federal banking and transparency laws.

what's in a used video game? profits hopes walmart. the world's largst retailer is greatly expanding a trial program that allows you to turn in used video games for store credit. starting a week from today customers will be able to get up to $35 of credit depending on the age and popularity of the game. and sometime later this year you'll also be able to buy used games at walmart. rival game stop-- it's stock fell 3% yesterday google goes beyond glass... and introduces a version of its android operating system that is compatible with many wearable devices. first up from the 'android wear' project is a watch. according to google... it's working with several tech companies that plan to introduce smart watches later this year. wearable tech is expected to become a multi- billion-dollar market in the coming years. in an ever-increasingly intense race to attract young customers, burger king is the latest to announce an app that will allow customers to pay with their smartphones.

the app will be introduced next month and all 7-thousdand bk locations will be on board within a few months. mcdonald's and the dunkin brands group are also developing apps that interface well with customer loyalty programs. surging prices for food staples threaten to hamper the still- struggling u.s. economy. federal forecasters estimate that food prices at the retail level will rise as much as 3- and-a-half percent this year. in february.. food prices were up point-four-percent when compared to a month earlier. overall consumer prices are only expected to rise 1.9% this year. years of drought have contributed to higher meat, dairy and crop prices. well even as prices spike -- some consumers are willing to pay more. more diners are eating pricer protein. as seafood sales rise... especially salmon. worldwide consumpution of salmon doubled in the last decade, and is set to double again by 2020. ricardo garcia, ceo of seafood company camanchaca, explains. i think

one of the most important trends today is the shift in the menu. people are moving more and more from other proteins and other food to the acquacultural products and seafood products." garcia and other international seafood companies are pushing for more sustainable salmon farming. they aim to cut down on the spread of disease and reduce negative impacts farming can have on marine ecosystems. bill... health-conscious and eco-friendly features are also being embraced by the housewares industry... in an effort to market to millenials. in today's cover story... the latest trends in small kitchen appliances appear to be designed to appeal to those with less kitchen space... but more demands. bill... health- conscious and eco-friendly features are also being embraced by the housewares industry... in an effort to market to millenials. in today's cover story... the latest trends in small kitchen appliances appear to be designed to appeal to those with less kitchen space... but more demands. evidence of that shift is scattered throughout this year's international housewares show. we really value simplicity, and most quote-unquote "smart products" that have come out so far don't really make your life easier. they make it more difficult, more cumbersome."

that's why store-bound ceo evan dash is adopting both high-tech and low-tech innovations -- from a blender that can accomodate different sized containers... to a washing machine that requires no hook- ups or electricity -- just a crank and some water. dash says social media has given his four- year-old company a huge boost. he says his instagram account.. featuring home-grown celebrity chefs sharing healthy recipes.. has a quarter-million followers because consumers want content. we're all about the messaging of unprocessing your food, healthier lifestyle." to reach out to young customers and overseas buyers... 'established companies' are also combining more functionality with less space... like the coffee maker that offers both a single-serve capsule system.. and a filter basket to brew an entire pot. it's getting easier to bring brands into new countries. for example, hamilton beach is getting into asia, india, brazil and other markets like that." international attendees and exhibitors now make up 30% of

the housewares show... and they're eating up compact appliances... like the drink maker that can read a chip on a single-serve package... to know what beverage to make. the consumers love the variety. for instance, you like apple juice. i like orange juice. we can make it together. inventors are also bringing together ideas and funding to get to market quicker... with the help of platforms like kickstarter. despite that... executives say the housewares industry is still a couple years away from products that can interact with your smart phone or computer. still to come: chart talk - and what's going on with microsoft. its share price has been soaring. we'll assess the first quarter earnings season just under way. and next, a major car maker in damage control - trying to convince the public and regulators it's turned things around.

general motors is now moving with lightning speed trying to stem the bad news about multiple investigations into its recall practices. on monday its ceo mary barra admitted the company had mishandled safety complaints years ago. yesterday she announced, effective immediatly, a new position is being created that will oversee global vehicle safety. kevin paul scott, he's the author of "8 essential exchanges" he joins us now via skype -- you're a management consultant...how would you assess her early days in the driver's seat at gm? > > i think miss barra has taken the reins of this company

on january 15th and is bringing in a new day for gm. a day that is about transparency and she really is reversing course and getting out ahead of these issues. > > so you say reversing course, so before it was more stonewall but her style is to be open? > > absolutely gm in the past has tried to delay and deny-- they've known about these issues for a long time. they have taken approach similar to what target was taking during the holiday season which was trying to downplay these the seriousness of this and she is really reversing course and saying we're going to be honest, we're going to be open, and we're going to get out in front of this issue. > > some people are saying though this could push gm back into bankruptcy. she might get blamed for it for maybe being too transparent. > > yeah that's always a risk that you run, but american consumers are paying attention. you have got to be willing to pull back the sheets and be

honest about what's happening if you're ever going to regain the consumer confidence that people once had in this brand. > > kevin this kind of reminds me of the tylenol scandal of many years ago when it had a terrible scandal people were killed the company ceo stepped up infront of the camera and said we've got a problem here, we're going to fix it. > > bill that's a great example. tylenol had some negative consequences at the time. they had some financial struggles because of it, but eventually they moved back and regained the trust of the american consumers and they are a top five brand now. i believe that if mary barra continues down this course, she will have the opportunity to do the same and put gm back in the good graces of the american public. > > kevin paul scott, thanks so much. > > thank you. coming up... microsoft plays nice with apple - is that why its stock has taken off? we'll discuss in chart talk and next - first quarter earnings reports have begun. we'll see what several belwethers might say about the season.

this week in the first quarter earnings season officially gets underway. how do things look? well, let's talk to sheraz mian

he's director of research for zack's investment research. we've had quite a run-up in the stocks. what do you think? bullish or bearish in first quarter earnings? > > bearish, bill and the primary reason is that the fundamentals both on the earnings side as well as the economy haven't really kept pace with how much as you directly pointed out stocks have run up. so total earnings for q1 are expected to be down 1.6% at this state, and that's down from a positive 2.3% that was expected three months ago, and we have seen this trend continue to play out for more than a year now and one would, at least, reasonably expect for earnings to justify what we have been seeing in the market. meaning that estimates should be going up, not going down. > > all right, sheraz. let's pick some bellwethers that you think are pretty telling. > > well we saw results from

oracle and adobe the other day. fedex is going to release results we have general mills, we have nike and all of these are bellwethers for the rest of the earning season and also for the broader economy. fedex, as you know, is the transportation bellwether and whether it's the online shopping or the corporate deliveries we should get a sense of that from the results. oracle is the technology bellwether but

on the old line side in this twitter and facebook age, but they have been struggling particularly on the hardware side because corporate capital spending has been so weak lately. > > and nike that's like discretionary spending. > > that's more on the discretionary side and that tells us how the consumer is doing and we have been the persistent trend that we saw over the past month, month and half was the significant negative revisions on these consumer-centric names particularly on the retail side. > > now the fed has its second meeting today. is that in any way going to play into this too? looking at what the tapering is going to be? > > well the key question on the fed front is not so much what to expect what they will do on the the taper front because the 10 billion further reduction in bond purchases essentially is baked in a cake. the question is how they will remove some of those hard threshold's that they have set for themselves particularly the six and a half percent unemployment rate and replace that with more qualitative and vague threshold's without disturbing the market and that will be something to watch out for. > > sheraz mian from zack's. thanks so much. > > sure. what's really behind microsoft's major move? we'll find out next, in chart talk.chart talk is next.

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the old gal apparently still has some fight left in her. james ramelli with keenonthemarket.com. i'm talking about microsoft hitting numbers it hasn't seen since 2000. is this because it's now going to make its office suite available to operate on ipads? > > right you know i think it might be-- that was the main catalyst in tuesday's trade. we did see microsoft boosted by a generally higher tape, and the fact that on rallies we tend to see money flow into tech. we saw some big buyers in h p q on tuesday as well. i think this is an interesting move for microsoft. it's the first major action by the newly appointed

ceo it pushed the stock through this old resistance level at 3850 and up through the old 52 week high of around 39 bucks. that's going to become a new support level here. in the long term i don't really know what this is going to do for microsoft. i think offering their products on and ipad and for apple products might turn out to be a mistake in the long run. it could cannibalize their own business. if you don't buy apple hardware because it doesn't have these products, now you have no reason to buy microsoft hardware. i think in the short term, if the market's going to continue higher and microsoft is going to continue its momentum here, i think it's good for a short-term bounce and i could accumulate some stock here to test back down to that support level of around 39 bucks. > > yeah you have to believe that microsoft employees are happy with this, they've owned that stock for a long time, but you're thinking though for some people who are not familiar with this company, there's only

a short-term gain here? > > right you know we haven't seen microsoft be the growth stock that people might want it to be. it's a value stock-- it can be a good long-term store of value but i don't think that this is a stock that someone should come in and buy if they're expecting some huge moves higher and big capital gains here. i'd be looking to buy the stock around 39 and maybe i'd test higher up to the $40 region where i traded near today but i would not be looking to get aggressively long this stock on the 52 week high. > > james ramelli with keenonthemarket.com. thanks so much. > > thank you. that's the end of the road for us today! tomorrow on the show.... blockbuster battle....lionsgate has high hopes for "divergent." can it become hollywood's next hot franchise? find out on the thursday show. from all of us at first business, thanks for watching and have a great day!

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