[captioning made possible by nbc universal] >> ask not what your country can do for you. chris: the end of history? barack obama was the man of destiny, the transformer, the game changer. is that still possible? have the bailouts, the hard to swallow health care killed the dream and how do you get people helped obama, especially the young people, to get out this time. and finally, offshore warnings.

the signals say a tsunami is coming. could the shock of democratic defeat be so high this fall that it sinks the presidency itself? hi, i'm chris matthews. welcome. with us, "new york magazine"'s john heilemann. "the hotline"'s amy walter, the atlanta braves, cynthia tucker and "newsweek"'s howard fineman. just two years ago millions of americans were excited by the promise of barack obama. >> i am certain that generations from now we'll be able to look back and tell our children that this was the moment when we began to provide care for the sick and good jobs to the jobless. this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our product began to heal. this was moment when we ended a war and secured our nation and restored our image as the last best hope on earth.

chris: wow. obama excited higher turnout in that than most presidential elections. he got 69% of first-time rsvote, 66% of voters under 30. 95% of african americans and 67% of hispanics. john heilemann, most midterm election are 15 to 20 points lower in turnout than presidential elections. how does he get the new buys, all those people -- new bies, all those people, to get out in november. >> i think it might be too late. the young people you're talking about, the core of the new voters that obama drew in, they have done so little over the course of the last 18 months to energize those people. you think about organizing for obama, the online structure that brought so many young people in -- chris: those emails are still going out.

>> in the d.n.c. a lot of young people think he's become co-opted by washington. he's become to a lot of them a trarble washington politician. he might be able to get hispanics to turn out. his immigration campaign, by comprehensive reform, the arizona lawsuit. but what we think is the corps of obama, new-voter demographics very hard to do that in the next couple of months. chris: what hurdles does he face in terms of turnout? >> i think that point was exactly correct. it was goingeo b difficult to energize them again. you energize them with speeches like that, not a speech a sitting president gets to make. chris: they'd love to hear it, wouldn't they? >> sure but i don't know if that's enough to get them to come out and vote. it's the percentage of the electorate they make up. young voters always make up a smaller percentage of the vote

in a midterm election than older voters. getting that to change is going to be very difficult. the second change is independent voters. they are lost right now t democrats. that's a much bigger problem than invigorating the base. chris: if you look at the numbers right now, republicans are about the same level of enthusiasm now going into this election in november as they were in the last election, which means not too enthusiastic. but if republicans are about the same, not excited, the democrats are down 37 -- 34% looking forward to this election. >> i think it was always unrealistic to think that obama could turn out the same kind of coalition in a mid term election that is -- that he did in a historic election in 2008. people like tyler perry, the producer, he said he had never

voted before. a successful producer who never voted until there was a realistic chance to have the first black president. you're never going to have that again. >> there's not frankly that much to brag about. what they're going to have to do and will do is focus on republicans both generally and generalerly and individually. they're going to say that individual republicans are literally crazy. chris: they have a few cases. >> they're going to focus on individual ones. there's also the general one, which is going to say you can't take us back to the future with tax cuts and no regulation and that's going to be the argument, whether it will sell or not. what they're really trying to do is depress the turnout of the inlts that amy is talking about. poison the well with those people who want to vote --

chris: how? >> give them bad information about the republicans. chris: i don't like the way things are so i don't feel like voting democrat. i don't like the republicans because they weren't so good last time. i'm going to get a beer and not going to vote. does that make sense as a strategy? >> it's one of the few strategies available to them. there's a wise political philosopher who said when you go to the voting booth you're pulling the lever saying yes to something. there are not many in the country who want to say yes to the democratic party. in that case, make them say no to the republicans. if they want to say no, they'll stay home. >> that would be great if democrats didn't have to defend seats that are basically republican seats. those independents, a lot of them can stay home. you can turn out every democrat you have in north dakota and

south dakota. that's not enough to win if republicans are turning out and voting overwhelming. >> what they're trying to do, the democrats and obama is meanwhilize the losses. they know they're going to lose. they don't want to lose 40 seats -- seeps because they don't want the house to flip over. chris: you don't brag about what you've done. when i worked on the hill every member of congress in both participants would go home to run for re-election. we did health care, the stimulus. will they brag like that? >> in some cases. health care will be very important. wall street reform -- i shouldn't sound like the washington insiders. wall street reform will be very important in some districts. chris: did you say fenn rag? >> but it's also true that the tea party gave democrats unexpected help.

in some cases democrats won't talk much about what they've accomplished. they'll talk about how crazy the opposition is. chris: harry lloyd in nevada is not -- reid in nevada is not trashing his opponent but he's getting everybody else to do it. we asked ask can -- can republicans win congress in a wave election without proposing an agenda? the meter says, wow, they can. and this is rare. look at that number, ladies and gentlemen. 12-0, the meter writers, all-pros, believes the republicans don't have to show any cards. howard? >> the reason i say that, karl rove, the mastermind of republican politics told me the republicans definitely do need to put guard an agenda, which means to me they don't. chris: can you beat that? if rove says it it's wrong.

>> i take that as sarcasm. chris: can they get away with nothing? >> i think they can. with the president's approval rating now down in the low 40's, with the white voters down in the mid 30's, with hispanics down 15 points over the course of the last six months, the economy as bad as it is, the b.p. spill. with all that, i think republicans can get away with running on nothing. they should just surf that wave. >> just ask how well democrats did in 2006 running without an agenda and as the change party and party of no. they did very well. >> john named a number of factors that have gone poorly for the democrats but by and large it's the economy, the economy. voters blame the party in power for the economy and that's the democrats. cruyff imget back to where you vote yes or no. it's hard to get people to say, no, i don't like the way things ar doing -- going but i love

th guy harry. will democrats run away from president carter? [laughter] will they run away from president obama? >> in swing districts, anything but the safest democrat seats, democrats will run away from president obama. >> stephanie running for re-election in south dakota already with an ad about how she voted against health care. i think that's a yes. >> you won't see the president out on the campaign trail very much. >> yeah, i think they're going to run away from him. chris: getting voters to turn out is one of the classic art forms in american politics. in the 1960 kennedy-nixon campaign, both side tried to time their final barnstorming trips to excite the troops. they told kennedy to hold off the chicago stop until the end.

look at how all the trade unions showed up at the last weekend. same story on the nixon side. he brought president eisenhower to new york the last wednesday before the election. there they are in harold's square, macy's right before the election day. that same year lyndon johnson used the old-fashioned whistle stop to rally the rural stop. >> god bless you, most democratic! good-bye. god bless you! chrit' thas:s pretty definite. here's one of the most evocative scenes of that campaign. the kennedy final barnstorming tour ending where it all ben, in boston. so what about turnout in this facebook age? this online bid by comedian and democrat sarah sill very -- silverman. >> i'm making this video to

urge you, all of you to schlep over to florida and convince your grand paints -- grandparents to vote o buck:. it can make the difference. explain to them that we're all the same inside. you could compare an elderly jewish woman like nanna to a young black man. they may seem totally different but on paper they're the same. think about it. track suits. they both love track suits. what else? car of choice? the cadillac. they're both crazy about their grandkids. whatlse? e they like things andbling and money and jewelry and stuff. they both say yo all the time or jews go right to left, oy. there's nobody more important or influential over their grandparents than their grandkids. you. if they vote for barack obama

they're going to get another visit this year. if not, let's hope they stay healthy until next year. chris: an election is bigger than the sum of its parts when people get beat when they're not on the endangered list. how do the experts see it? plus scoops and predictions. be right back.

chris: welcome back. if republicans take control of the house this fall in may be what political wants call a wave election. other waive years included 1994 the gingrich year. >> the country is broke, fix it. there's a strong possibility that the republican party also will have control to have house of representatives for the first time in 40 years. that would be a sea change in

american politics. chris: another sea change was the democrats' win in 2006. here was msnbc's croverpblg. tom, you're surprised it has come close to this possible full tsunami here? >> i am a little surprised on the senate side, i suppose. we'd been hearing for some time that there was a big build-up, a wave, as it was described and we knew that the country was very unhappy. chris: define a wave. >> something national and global that overcomes the individual sentiments and regions of the country. it becomes a national thing. there's no presidential race this year but it feels right now that way. the o thing obama has going for him other than the attacks on republicans, i think, is the possibility that the economy will seriously begin to turn in this measurable ways to change the psychology.

because, yes, the unemployment rate is high. but the other thing that's killing obama among independent and middle class voters is fear. if that psychology can somehow be changed in august, september, october, a tall order, that could mann mize their loss. chris: if not, we're facing a wave. that's when real good candidates lose because they're on the wrong side of the wave and really bad ones win because they're on the bad side. and you don't realize it until later. >> something like 54 seats now that democrats have picked up over the last two eleion.ct a lot of those people are sitting in the wrong seats. sometimes it feels more like a tornado where it will come through a neighborhood. entire swaths of the neighborhood are gone and then there's that one house standing. remember chris shaze won. how in the world the did that

happen? i can imagine you're going to get a whole bunch of people who lose that we're surprised about and some who win we're also surprised about. alvaro: like biden winning in -- chris: like biden winning in 1972 and every other democrat lost. >> when you think about this in 2008, none of this saw the wave coming. chris: clatic election people have told medical because they see it coming, because what nancy pelosi sees what tom foley didn't see -- they'll be able to work on it. >> in defense of robert gibbs, the white house press secretary who the other week said the democrats are in danger of losing the house. that was meant as an alarm, meant to lower expectations and also make the point that john made. is it's unusual to have this

discussion now. these weafs tend to surprise people and that's the one glimmer of hope obama has. chris: is this going to save the democrats, this offshore warning? >> it will certainly help, that and scott brown. he was also a big warning for the democrats, they hope before it's too late. chris: we'll be right back with scoops and predictions. tell me something i don't know. be r [ female announcer ] jobs leaving. a budget disaster. california on the brink.

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chris: welcome back. tell me something i don't know. >> you do know that welcome in 2008 mayor bloomberg spent a lot of time thinking about whether or not to run as an independent. 2012 is on his mind again. he's thinking about if the right republican from his point of view, which is to say the wrong run from the country's point of view. mitt romney, certainly sarah palin, someone in his view gets nominated that's too far to the right he bids. >> i want to go babington wave election thing, the surprises. one important place to look for it is wisconsin. russ feingold has been off the radar screen for a long time. polls are very close. we're seeing the money numbers come in. i think this could be one of those places where we'll be surprised. >> chris, while we've talked

about the fact that many democratic incumbents are going to run away from the president, if they're in swing districts and have substantial numbers of african-american voters they can't run away too far. as is to you in the deep south. in those cases, democratic incumbents may call in a surrogate likes james kline don. >> there's an argument bengal combong on about television and how much television twizzing to do. your friend says lots of generic democratic advertising attacking the republicans. they don't care aboutou, they're not for the common man. so far the white house is resisting it. but ed rendell has his ideas. chris: he might have to go raise the money. when we come back, will bill

clinton be the most effective democrat this year?

chris: this week's big question -- democrats will be desperate for a happy warrior this november. could bill clinton make the

difference and cheerlead the democratic congress on to victory? >> first of all there's no question that bill clinton is still an effective surrogate. we've seen it all throughout this year. races where he's pulled people across the finish line. the white house likes the idea of him out there in certain district and i think the white house knows that in some of the most vulnerable districts, bill clinton is a lot more effective campaigner than the president would be. there are conversations going on. terry mcauliffe said there are active discussions going on. >> i absolutely see this but the problem for bill clinton is the same one that president obama has, which is what do you sell? how are you going to make voters in that district happy, beyond saying he can talk to the voters in a way that maybe the president can't. chris: that's democratic values. >> i think that bill clinton is more at the present time minutely suited to the

ideological warfare than barack obama. >> i agree on selling the values but it's interesting to -- interesting to watch obama in all this. on the campaign trail he doesn't talk about blifpblets a lot. there's still that thing going back to the 2008 campaign when he ran against the clintons. he needs the clintons' help but the's going to be a grain of reluctance from him. chris: politics makes strange bed fellos. thanks to a great round table. that's the show. thanks for watching. see you right here next week.