[captioning made possible by nbc universal] >> this is "the chris matthews show" >> ask not what your country can do for you. >> the time for change has come. >> mr. lucky. chris: and boy is he blessed. he won his senate against alan keyes. will the obama luck hold again? next time republicans get to run against in 2012, g.o.p. goes on offense and w. could be forgotten. two, four, six, eight, who do we investigate. if the republicans win this

fall, they could hold hearings, subpoena witnessesarst, t each day with a prayer and end it with a probe. i'm chris matthews. welcome to the show. we have john heilemann, norah o'donnell and kelly o'donnell and "newsweek"'s howard fineman. barack obama has past his 49 birthday and he is president and he is one lucky guy. remember obama won his first race in the u.s. senate just six years ago. republicans ended up with alan keyes. mccain who had been a strong candidate faded in defending the bush record. and this year, while the numbers don't look good for the democrats. the g.o.p. could be split between the tea party candidates and the regular party. and that obama luck may hold when he runs again in 2012. modren persidents have one strike in terms unless they face

a commanding opponent. john, he has been lucky? >> he has been lucky, but one exception, hillary clinton, who is a rival when he ran for the nomination. right now, it's fascinating. you think of obama's approval rating has fallen and yet over the course of the first 18 months, unlike in past presidential elections, you don't see republicans out there. there have been two, mitt romney and pawlenty. and the white house have said, couldn't we be lucky enough to end up with another opponent who is just as lame as the ones we faced in the past. chris: he may get a little bit of a break. i'm looking at some of these races. nevada, he thought he may have had a safe seat. harry reid facing sharro ankle.

so he may not lose the senate. >> the appetite for republicans and the environment is good for republicans out there. got to get 10 seats to take back the senate, but haven't field the the best seats. nevada, that has been a disaster for the republican party. a lot of the donors are starting to run and charlie crist who is running as an independent is dahean the polls even though rubio is a star, charlie crist may win that seat. >> kelly, it seems to be a bifurcation. sometimes zany and tea party people. bachmann and palin and you have a dull group of leaders, mitch mcconnell and john boehner. people wouldn't recognize them on the subway.

[laughter] chris: does that hurt the republican party to have dull leaders? >> there is a front stage-badge stage scenario where they don't necessarily have the strongest voices for television and for easy communication, kind of the b team is moving up who really communicate well. if you look at mitch mcconnell, his strength is organizing the party and the message. that has its value and not as easy. chris: how does that square with the tea party crowd who were excited? maybe it works together? >> there is energy and pragmatism and when they get people excited and have a strategy. chris: then comes the tricky problemyimarr those two. how do you take people with the high numbers like palin and say, we are going to run one of esthe dullsville candidates next time? >> it won't be dullsville if the

republicans are lucky. mitch mcconnell is invisible because his job is a demolition expert. the guy blowing up the bridge doesn't want to be on tv. [laughter] >> he tried to destroy the effectiveness of the obama candidacy. obama came in and said change, change, change, mcconnell had made it difficult. the presidency is a different thing and i think we'll have to call for it and the republicans going to have a chance, a livelier character. chris: that's the problem. if you look on paper, who is the vice presidential nominee last time? sarah palin. and the republican party that promotes people to the top job, she is also, i looked at the latest number. 76% approval. very low disapproval and yet nobody -- among republicans.

the experts would never say she is ever going to be the nominee. >> ihere no doubt if sarah palin wants to run for president she can be a formidable force, in iowa, skip new hampshire, win south carolina where she launched campaigns and could be a huge player. people love her. i have been with her on her book tour. people relate to her. she is the only woman. eight or 10 white republicans and she would be the only woman and she has conas. chris: there is nothing you would like more to say than an obama-palin fight. because obama might win it, but boy, the excitement on the way. >> run, sarah, run. those are my three words. chris: is that what the back room boys are saying?

>> no. the way nominations work, there is a establishment party and it is usually the person who came in second last time. sarah palin is never going to be the establishment person in the republican party. the other establishment candidate would be mitt romney who has spent the last 18 months trying to get the establishment to get out and not getting that far. big problem is he has romney care. the republican party wants to run against obamacare. it is the descendant of romney care. the establishment is looking around trying to find people like bash our or mitch daniels. chris: can you square the circle? exciting tea party favorite that's credible enough to win the presidency? >> it would be pretty hard to square that circle. possibly, you could imagine someone like newt gingrich.

but someone who is a little bit more successful. and would get the tea party behind him. >> you defined the dynamics in 2012. which semi-establishment candidate can get the support. chris: this is fascinating. we asked, who has the best chance to beat obama in 2012. the meter is divided. three of you say indiana governor mitch daniels. governor pawlenty. then two for mitt romney. and one went for jeb and one for new jersey governor. some say it's too hard to pick. yikes. this is a very mixed up field. >> republicans don't elevate their v.p. nominee, but usually the person who ran for president. they didn't get through.

so the sarah palin dynamic is a little bit different because she that gives romney a chance. chris: you pick pawlenty in this meter. >> i did. i had to pick somebody. chris: do you think pawlenty would turn on the palins, the bachmanns? would they get excited? >> he is a milder candidate but does meet some of their requirements and from a state that appreciates christian values. he is of that mindset, gun owner. he is a morva nila version, perhaps, no disrespect. if he could light people's fire along the way. >> he is a workila-css guy. paw lepty's flavor is going to -- pawlenty's flavor is going on the wrking-class background. chris: why don't they look romney? >> he fits the mold because he

had run before. john's right, he has that problem. but in other ways, his expertise on the economy. chris: we all know the patterns. democrats shoot their wounded and republicans run the next time. that is the pattern. [laughter] >> he is a sam's club republican, not a countyr club republican, pawlenty. but you shouldn't underestimate. he has been spending the time on the organization and traveling. and that says a lot. chris: the real surprise that could challenge this president effectively is jeb bush if he decides to get in. >> he says he's not running. >> he's my pick and i don't take him seriously. he is a guy that has extraordinary establishment credentials and a serious person on policy and he is taken very seriously among the conservative grassroots because of his name and policies. he is a guy, tomorrow, if his

name wasn't jeb bush, he would be the front runner tomorrow. by next year, in the republican rank and file, the memory of george w. will have faded enough and different enough. chris: time moves so fast these days. a week is a second. everything moves. >> soldier status. >> remember the time that barack obama said he wasn't running for president. chris: is the president's going to hold? >> if the economy stays flat,t i is going to be impossible. he will get a tough opponent. >> i gee, if the economy continues to sputter, there will be a lot more republicans getting into the race. >> some are looking ahead to 16 who are doing the earliest -- chris: doesn't jeb have to make his move? >> not necessarily.

not necessarily. john thune, with all due respect, i don't know if he has that much that he needs to wait. pawlenty and all the others. chris: you aren't whistling that tune. two years ago, a little known governor was fending off the investigation called troopergate but john mccain cast his magic wand on her. >> governor sarah palin of the great state of alaska. [cheers and applause] chris: just like that. palin was not a known quantity. he might have picked a known quantity that year, but who knew. kelly, here you were on "morning joe" that day. >> the buzz meter is lifting soundararah palin, governor of alaska. >> sarah, how do you pronounce youras lt name? >> palin. chris: we were trying to figure

that out. john, you wrote in your book that on mccain's plane, palin told mccain's staff, it's god's plan. not to mention a bit of good luck going into it. every network was trying to figure it all out. >> everybody here is very proud of her, but no one expected that the road to the white house might start right here in what is known locally on the road to fairbanks. chris: another network covered palin's debut. >> obviously fox news is a more sophisticated analysis network. and governor palin would be ready from day one. >> she knows about international relations, because she is right up there in alaska right next door to russia. >> alaska is near the north pole and must be friends with santa. [laughter] chris: when we come back, is it even money that republicans

capture the house this fall and that gives them the power to launch investigations and issue subpoenas. and they seem to be getting ready for that. plus ssopco and predictions. be right back.

chris: welcome back. if republicans do win a majority in the house, the biggest issue is the par to issue subpoenas. they led to watergate and clinton impeachment. the republican who would be in charge of investigations is congressman issa and he makes no bones about it. >> if i am the chairman i will have the subpoena pen and i will use it and i will use it to get it the very information that today the white house is either shredding or not producing. chris: among the investigations

that republicans have on the front burner, any improper job offers to congressman sestak to stop challenging arlen specter. the justice department's decision to drop charges of possible voter intimidation by the new black panthers on the day that barack obama was elected president and countrywide financial deals. kelly, they have a menu. and they have congressman issa and he will be chairman if they win. they could issue subpoenas. >> he is doing so much dress rehearsal. one of the richest members of congress. he has been aggressive about this. day in and day out, we are getting letters he has written and memos about things from toyota and the other issues you mentioned. they are doing it without the subpoena power. their team would be so poised if he were the chairman. chris: when richard nixon got re-elected and said damn it, we

lost the subpoena power. if the opposition party has subpoena power, barack obama better be ready for it. >> the white house counsel's office is reading every memo and press release from congressman issa. chris: is eric holder worried? >> he should be because there will be questions about justice department policy. one is white house travel spending and spending in general, stimulus package, how the decision was laddled out will be under review. chris: it won't be personal against him. >> oh, no. [htlaug] >> you covered it. you know how it works, if you could call witnesses into a hearing, you could cause trouble for the other side. >> dan burton used to chair this committee and he made clinton's

life hell. it is a powerful position, the ability to issue subpoenas. chris: shooting at cantalopes. >> it led to impeachment hearings. he will be an investigative pit bull not only on spending but their response on the gulf. >> an effective strategy, paralysis works well. boatling up the obama administration, not to work and function -- >> i don't think they -- the republicans shouldn't talk about it too much. it goes to the point that john made before, which is if congressman issa giving the speech in pennsylvania is one thing. if the republicans make this their calling card for the whole election, then that leaves an opening for the democrats to say that's all these guys want to do. chris: they aren't going to create jobs.

there are

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chris: john, tell me something i don't know. >> there are smart democratic politicos who are more worried right now that the democrats could lose the senate more than the house. chris: that is like losing a dozen seats. >> there is a concern about the

quality of the candidates and concern about the national mood and the national democratic senatorial committee which is not the best thing money necessarily and the wisest way. chris: could boxer lose? >> yes. demo catscrould lose in new hampshire and illinois, seats they should absolutely hold. they aren't spending a lot of money there. >> we may not be singing the same spoon on john thune. some of his closest aides are dropping like flies and whether he wants to make the 2012 run or later. >> we were talking about investigations, but a peek into the rangel defense. one of his lawyers will make the argument that because congress was giving money to the center that bears his name that that means that congress believed that rangel wasn't personally benefiting.

chris: howard? >> not clear what is going to happen to rahm emanuel. it depends on chicago politics in part. the more important person is larry summers. larry summers going back to the campaign and now more than ever is the indispensible person for barack obama. barack obama trusts his judgment above all and listens to him day in and day out. chris: the big question of the week, will a serious independent n fnt next time? be right back.

chris: this week's big question, if president obama approval numbers lag into 2012, will we see a serious independent candidate? john? >> i think as much as anything, it depends on who the republicans nominate, but the biggest independent candidate is mayor bloom burg. if sarah palin or mitt romney, if either one of them is the republican nominee, 50-50 chance that bloom burg runs. chris: perot got 19. >> if bloom burg thinks he could

get over 30%. he won't run unless he thinks he could become president. >> if sarah palin is the nominee you will see the mayor get in the race. >> john anderson in 1980, perot in 1992, the country may be ready. >> it depends on a couple of things. palin is one and what happens in the congress. if the republicans take the congress, if they overplay their hand in one direction or the other, that will influence what is going to happen with an independent candidate. if they go too far to the right, that increases the chance of an independent running. chris: either party is not united. chris: either party is not united. thanks for come on in, and i'll give you a free quote. quote and compare in about 8 minutes. now, that's progressive. call or click today.