this sunday, 48 hours to go, the final push to election day. >> your government is out of control. do you have to accept it? do you have to take it? hell, no, you don't. >> now in this election, the other side is betting on amnesia. they're betting that you forgot who caused this mess in the first place. >> with the president's handling of the economy and distrust of the government in the debate, how will republicans lead if they return to power?

with us exclusively this morning, two men at the center of it all, the chairman of the democratic national committee, former virginia governor tim kaine and the former rnc chair, governor haley barbour of mississippi. cain and barbour debate what's at stake this tuesday. then the very latest polls, election day projections and political analysis from tom brokaw of nbc news. national journal's charlie cook, "time" magazine's mark halperin, npr's michele norris, and chuck "time" magazine's mark halperin, npr's michele norris, and chuck todd of nbc news. captions paid for by nbc-universal television but first this morning, breaking news over the weekend, as authorities in yemen arrest a young woman there on suspicion of mailing explosives, concealed inside cargo packages, destined for chicago area synagogues,

bombs powerful enough, according to u.s. officials, to take down airplanes. the president calling this plot a credible threat as investigators continue to search for more suspects inside yemen and officials here are looking closely at the suspected involvement of al qaeda's yemeni branch, al qaeda in the arabian peninsula. the president's counterterrorism chief deputy national security adviser, john brennan. welcome back to "meet the press." >> thank you, david. >> what more is known about the plot this morning? >> we're still working closely with british authorities as well as the yemenese and other authorities. we're trying to get a handle on what else might be out there. that's why we've taken exceptionally prude measures, in my mind. yemen authorities have been very cooperative in this effort as have other governments and services. so, we're still trying to understand better exactly what we might be facing. >> is it your fear that there are additional devices out there, additional bombs out

there in the mail somewhere? >> i think we have to presume that there might be and, therefore, we have to take these measures. but, right now, we do not have indications that there are others that are out there. fedex and u.p.s. have stopped all the packages coming into the united states that were being mailed from yemen. i think we feel as though the appropriate steps have been taken. we feel good about where we are right now but we need to continue to do this investigation and get to the bottom of this. >> additional active threats right now? is it anything beyond additional packages? >> al qaeda has been quite vocal in terms of threatening attacks against the united states, against western interests and the yemenis. they are a dangerous group. we are determine d to stop thei plans and thwart their attempts. we need to keep the pressure on them. >> this is al qaeda in yemen that is behind this, in your mind? this is the same group that tried to launch the christmas day plot, as well? >> it certainly has the trademarks of al qaeda in

arabian peninsula. >> who or what was the ultimate target, in your mind? >> the british has come out and said that they believe that the intention was to detonate this ied on the plane, but the terrorists wouldn't have known where that plane was going to be. it was a viable device, self contained. so, it could have been detonated and activated. it was addressed to some locations in chicago that have been associated with synagogues. so, therefore, what we're trying to do is determine whether or not the target was the aircraft itself or the ultimate destination. >> so, was it passengers? did they try to get this on passenger planes or were they trying to exploit the cargo system? >> i don't know exactly the extent of their knowledge of how these cargo packages are moved and whether or not they're on cargo or passenger aircraft. we just know that there was an intention to try to carry out some type of attack with these ieds that were going to be tr trans-shipped on aircraft to the

united states. >> my understanding is that the bombmaker behind this is sophisticated, somebody that you may think you know. i mean, this is not an amateur hour? >> no. it's a very sophisticated device in terms of how it was constructed, how it was concealed. we know that the al qaeda arabiar a arabian peninsula has carried out attacks in the past. they bear similar types of traits and charactercharacteris. the bomber in yemen is a very dangerous individual we need to find and bring to justice. >> are the yemenis seek him out as we speak? >> yes, we are and, doing it very explicitly. >> is this something that's very vulnerable? >> since 9/11, we've made sure that we understand the cargo coming into the united states, apply different type of security measures, screening, trying to identify high-threat cargo that is given particular attention

and scrutiny. so, we're working very closely with our partners. a lot of packages that are mailed from overseas will have several trans shipment points en route. we need to work closely with those partners. >> you look at a branch of al qaeda like this, these are small attacks, like pull off what you can pull off here, one at a time, one person at a time, send packages, an individual, try to take down a plane. what does this say about how the group is evolving? >> they are still at war with us and we are very much at war with them and they're going to try to identify vulnerabilities that might exist in the system. they continue to go after aviation targets. we need to stay one step ahead of them. we've been very fortunate that we've been able to thwart these attacks. we feel this is something we need to maintain our vigilance every day. >> mr. brennan, thank you very much. >> thank you, david. now we turn to decision 2010, election day 48 hours away. the president yesterday stumping in philadelphia, connecticut and

chicago, arguing that in this election, the stakes are high. >> unless each and every one of you turn out and get your friends to turn out and get your families to turn out, then we could fall short. and all the progress we've made over the last couple of years can be rolled back. >> joining me now, two men trying to lead their respective parties to victory tuesday. chairman of the democratic national committee, former virginia governor, tim kaine and current rnc chair governor haley barbour. welcome to both of you. here we go. we're on the eve of the elect n election. governor barbour, is that what americans should expect? you heard the president say a roll back of democratic accomplishments, a rollback of the obama agenda? >> there's no question that this mid-term election is a referendum on obama's policies. he talks about it. the dominant issues in america are. all of this spending, outrageous

spending, excessive debt, skyrocketing deficits, joblessness and what the american people are looking at, and they're saying the obama policies aren't working. we need new policies. we need an economic growth agenda. so, it's very -- >> but are they voting for a rollback? >> if republicans win, that's what it will be, a repudiation of obama's policies. >> governor kaine, are we looking at a realignment or something of a split decision tuesday? >> republicans say they'll take both houses. we believe we're going to hold on to both houses and we'll see. i'm not going to predict. i believe we'll hold on to both houses but the margins will get narrower, because america isn't a 59-41 nation. the margins will get narrower. shrinking economy that the

republicans left us into a growing economy, stopping combat operations in iraq and so many other key achievements and what you have on the left was -- he didn't talk about jobs or deficits. he said we want president obama to be a one-term president they have a political and partisan agenda. we're the problem solvers, trying to get this nation going after a lost decade that they created. >> governor, do you see realignment? do you see that republicans retake the house? >> what i've see, we've just gone through -- in the last two years, biggest lurch to the left in american history. if you mean a realignment that the american people want to yank america back away from that, yeah, they do. do i see a realignment in the sense that one party is going to win some total control? no, i don't. i think tim is right. we are a center right nation, and i think that this election

will push us back toward the center, but it's because people know that the obama/pelosi/reid policies have been far left. >> house, senate, what goes republican? >> i'll be surprised if the house doesn't have a republican majority. i think it's harder in the senate. we'll probably make big gains in the senate. for my particular line of work, i think we'll have 30 republican governors. >> 30 needed in the house, 10 in the senate for republican control. let's talk about some of the issues, governor kaine. health care for one. you said democrats would be nuts if they try to create distance between themselves and the democratic party, democratic leaders and president obama. in fact, back in march on this program, i had asked you, what would be the fallout from passing health care? this is what you said. >> governor, at what cost will victory be achieved? >> david, this is going to be great for democrats. i've been on the ballot seven times and won seven races. i would love to be running on this. this is going to be a big win

for the american public and every democrat everywhere will get a tail wind because of -- >> you said that democrats will get a tail wind. democrats do not agree. they are not running on health care. >> a lot of them are. >> a lot of them are not. in your state, there's only one democrat in a toss-up race who is actually defending his health care vote. the president was stumping for. >> jerry connelly? >> is he actually defending his -- >> absolutely. >> in toss-up races across the country, they are not standing up for health care. >> dnc chair, you can pick out democrats who are not running on health care, but the overwhelming majority of candidates that i'm standing up with are proud of the party, proud of the president, proud of the accomplishments and they are thrilled they have reformed a health care system to stop insurance company abuses, make sure that young people can stay on family policies until age 26, help seniors and small businesses. if they stand up a democrat and say they're against it, that

will be newsworthy. all the democrats out there campaigning for it, that's not so newsworthy. >> governor, you're saying there's a majority of democrats around the country actually campaigning on their health care vote? >> "new york times" poll had a 39-41, we would approve health care rather than we would want to roll it back or change it. that's only going to get stronger. >> polling shows most are against it. but 10% say you should give it a chance -- >> running from barack obama and health care reform like scolded dogs. >> 35,000 folks at rallies. >> he comes to the state of texas and democratic governor of texas goes all the way across texas to get somewhere else. same thing in georgia. fund-raiser for democratic governor of florida, won't let the press in. >> you've seen the rallies the president has done, 10 to 12 rallies with 250,000 people. i'm going to cleveland later today, showing up for this president. that's what we're seeing all across the country. despite republicans' assertions,

there's an enthusiasm gap, we're seeing strong democratic enthusiasm in early voting and strong turnout. we're seeing polls, the poll today says if you ask registered, democrats have an edge over republicans. likely, they still have an edge by about four points. that's what we've got to do between now and tuesday. >> governor barbour, what happens after election day? you have a party that's making rash promises, repeal of health care, promise to cut $100 billion out of government spending without being specific in this contract with america, this promise to america and a blueprint for how to govern that doesn't talk about social security or medicare. how are they really going to lead? >> i'll tell you how republican governors are going to lead. in my state, we're spending, this year, 13.3% less in state appropriations than two years ago. in tim's state, they're spending more than 10% less. the federal government is going

to have to learn that you can spend less money and provide the services that the country needs. so, the first thing i think republicans are going to do is make sure we cut spending and that's going to be a very serious thing. and it's got to be done, whether it's $100 billion -- >> but will they announce specifics? >> what is $100 billion? >> they don't say where they're going to do it. >> it's 3% of the federal budget. i've cut my budget 13%. it can be done. more importantly, it's got to be done. we've saddled, in the obama administration first three budgets more than $4 trillion of new debt that we're putting on our children. >> can republicans really pull off a repeal of health care? is that what the country wants? >> i think if they don't fully repeal and replace it, they will make such big changes in it over the next three years that you won't recognize it. >> and, governor, the president talks about building some consensus with republicans. >> right. >> where will that consensus come? will it be harder after tuesday?

will we see more gridlock, not less? >> it can't be harder, david. the republicans decided from the day this president was sworn in that they weren't going to cooperate with him on anything. the republicans will be forced to govern if these numbers narr narrow. join me in a bipartisan deficit commission to get control of federal spending. republicans in the senate blocked that bill. they wouldn't vote for it. they voted against it, even though they were sponsors. thank goodness the president has, by executive order, appointed a deficit commission. we'll see if they reject what they did in the bush administration. >> you talked about the tea party and told the national journal that basically they're part of the republican party and it will be okay with republicans if they get their shot in the batter's box. what's that going to look like if you get these tea party candidates coming into congress? >> tea party voters, republican voters, most independents in the united states are concerned

about outrageous spending, skyrocketing debt, deficits and the way that it has not produced jobs. so, what i think you're going to see republicans do that's going to be joined in, we're going to attack spending. spending is a problem. we're not going to raise taxes when we're trying to recover from a recession. and there's certainly no recovery going on, on main street. they may think it is at some economists office. on main street we need an economic growth plan and it sure can't have big tax increases in it. >> with with 30 seconds left, what does 2010 mean to 2012? do you think the president faces a challenge from the left, primary challenge in 2012? >> no. i think the president has solid support among democrat that is i see. look, they understand, we were in a lost decade. we've taken a shrinking economy and turn it into a growing one. saved the auto industry. the president will be the democratic nominee in 2012 and we see a progress that he's been able to achieve that will put him in good shape. >> you said you would wait till the end of the year to see about

your own mood. will you challenge the president in 2012? >> we'll decide, but who is there to the left of him? >> you haven't decided about a run for the presidency? >> i haven't given it any thought. after this election is over, we'll sit down and see if there's anything to think about. >> we'll leave it there. the countdown to 2010, political analysis from our round table, tom brokaw of nbc news, national journal's charlie cook, "time" magazine's mark halperin, npr's michele norris and chuck todd of nbc. - i volunteered. - i was drafted. - i enlisted. - i was nervous. - and there i was in asia. - europe. - the gulf. - and i saw things. - incredible things. - and people you never forget. - i did my job. - for my country. - my buddies. - for total strangers. - and i was proud. - so grateful.

- for my family. - my freedom. for all who served and all who serve, we can never thank them enough.

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we are back. we want to look through some of the latest polls out this week in some of the most high-profile cases. let's start with those senate seats held by the democrats. key elections if the republicans are going to pick up ten needed. barbara boxer now at 49-41. fiorina was in the hospital this week and appears to be losing ground. colorado, dead even last week. this week, therepublican, ken buck, pulling ahead of michael bennet in two of the polls. it's a four-point race or tighter than that. president obama's former seat in illinois, still a close race, mark kirk a slight edge over alexi giannoulias. to nevada, no race more significant, symbolically, with majority leader harry reid in the fight of his political career against tea party

candidate sharron angle who, in two polls, has that edge, four points over harry reid. the open seat in pennsylvania where democratic congressman joe sestak in a tight race against pat toomey, new poll showing it's toomey with the edge, a two-point lead turnout is so important here. washington state now, the democratic firewall. senator patti murray and republican dino rossi, showing murray up slightly, personally popular. the real enemy there is washington, who she's up against. three-term democratic senator russ feingold, slipping away from ron johnson. this is now a seven-point race in johnson's favor. recent polling in the much-talked about republican seat of florida. what a crazy week this week. we mentioned earlier, we'll talk more about the fact that that president clinton will try to

get kendrik meek out of the race. it's a three-way race. if that support from meek went away, what could that mean for the race? he's still in the race. what about the african-american turnout? a real fear for democrat ic candidates. chuck todd will go inside the numbers a little bit, chuck. let's talk about the house right now. go inside the fight for the senate. magic number is ten for the republicans. >> let's look at the path to ten here. four democratic seats that look like democratics have. the question is, where do they get six more? let's move along. they believe the republican -- these ones in yellow, you talked about all three races, that the republican wins will get them these three seats, pennsylvania, illinois and colorado. that gets them to seven.

how do they find three more? these are the four toughest hills to climb for the republicans, these four in red. west virginia, nevada, california, and washington. republicans think they'll get nevada, but it's a real coin flip as far as turnout is concerned. washington is the next best shot. the problem they have is they have to win one of west virginia in california and california and this week both republican candidates have faded. >> let's talk about the house here. inside the numbers, the key number is 39. that's what republicans need. you're looking at some additional numbers that are going to be a real key to election night. >> i am. we talk about the 39 seats. there really is an easy way to figure out why everybody thinks republicans has the house control in the bag. and that is the number 49. 49 democrats polled district that is john mccain carried in 2008. so, essentially, democrats are playing an away game, if you will. these are a lot of seats that they won in 2006 and 2008. they're going to get their majority pretty much basically on these 49 seats. in addition, i'm also following

the 14 democrats. and there are a few more than these 14, but 14 democrats who are marginal seats, very close ones, obama narrowly carried, who voted for health care, who voted for cap and trade. this is why when you see these predictions of 50 to 55, they're right here. this is where you get the numbers. anything above that will tell you that it was an even bigger wave than anticipated. >> very interesting. we invite you back to join our roundtable. i want to turn to the rest of our roundtable, joining me, charlie cook from the national journal, "time" magazine's mark halperin, author of "game change," tom brokaw of nbc news and author of "grace of silence" npr's michele norris. welcome to all of you. tom brokaw, as you look at a little bigger picture, what are voters preparing to say on tuesday? >> i think they're preparing to say we're not happy with anything that's going on in this country. that the recession turns out to

be more systemic and deeper than they were told earlier. i kind of divide up the country this way. they don't believe anything that they're hearing from the traditional institutions on wall street and in congress and they believe everything that they read on the internet. that's a prescription for a lot of turmoil. and that's what we're going to see here. there's a real attempt, i think, to try to get the attention of washington on the traditional, political establishment to say, hey, we're in charge from the ground up. it's no longer a top-down game. you have a political landscape now of traditional republicans, traditional democrats, populous represented by the tea party and then the moveable mass of the independents who are really driving these elections more with every election cycle. >> charlie cook, you heard governor kaine say we're still going to hold on to both here. what does the real map show you? >> on the house level, this has become a nationalized, almost parliamentary election where candidates don't matter so much. it's red/blue. it's really dissolved into

almost a straight-party vote. but in the senate, there's a separation that's occurred. maybe because of all the money that's in there, but where democrats are hanging on a lot better in the senate races than in the house races, where i don't think it's really very plausible that they could get -- that republicans could get a majority in the senate right now. in the house, this thing is going to be explosive. >> you have an interesting point. talking about the senate. the tightest races are in states that are not particularly hostile to the democrats. >> i think chuck's point was very well taken. it is a home turf election for democrats in those last few elections and the last few states. look at california. the president's approval rating is ten points higher than it is in the rest of the country. washington state is not a bad state. democrats are sort of hanging in there. i think they'll end up losing pennsylvania and illinois, but, boy, those are awfully, awfully close. and then colorado, that's -- one

strategist said that was his nominee for the most likely recount in the country is colorado, it's so close. >> michele norris, you've been around the country, talking about your book and also talking to voters. the mind-set of the voter is so interesting. provocative cover this week features barack obama surrounded here, and the headline is the angry voter. we can put it up on the screen for the audience to see. angry america, the angry voter. yet we've also seen the mosaic of this election year. glenn beck and sarah palin rallying supporters on the mall and yesterday the restore sanity tour of jon stewart and stephen colbert of comedy central. estimates of 2 h00,000 people a jon stewart, speaking not so much as a liberal or conservative, but kind of arguing for the middle. here is part of what he said. >> we hear every damn day about how fragile our country is, on

the brink of catastrophe, torn by polarizing hate. and how it's a shame that we can't work together to get things done. the truth is, we do. we work together to get things done every damn day! the only place we don't is here or on cable tv. >> michele, on the left or on the right, there's a message of we're the ones who can't get it right, in media or in washington. >> it's interesting. the rally to restore sanity or fear, a lot of democrats looked at that and said, boy, these are voters that might be in our camp, it's interesting if those would be out canvassing or doing something the weekend before the election. an interesting time to be listening to americans right now. you're right, they're angry. they're not just angry at barack obama, but they're angry at everybody in washington. this word we throw around

"recovery," it seems like a mirage. people don't feel like it's something that's temporary. the pinch feels permanent. people with jobs not on foreclosure says i'm okay. that's the new great. for a lot of voters, that's not good enough. one thing we don't catch is a certain degree of pragmatism. they're very result oriented right now. they want someone to go to washington and get something done. they're hearing candidates tearing each other down and not hearing enough of what they're actually going to do. even if the gop takes over the house, they'll come in with great expectations. voters want to see results. >> a rally like yesterday, what does it say about the mood of the voter that they can attract that kind of crowd? >> it says a lot about the star power of jon stewart and stephen colbert. michele is right. a lot of democrats look at that and say this is not rallying us for the election 48 hours away but simply showing some people on the left are angry at the media, just as some people on

the right are. anger and fear are dominant now and that's propoling what's going to happen tuesday. the challenge will be for the president and for the republicans, and the majority perhaps, to then take the anger and fear do what the election is supposed to dorks absorb the message and actually trying to do something about it. it's going to be really tough and the pressure will be not just on the president, which everybody focuses on, but also those new republican leaders. >> i'll say this, though. this is two different washington environments, if the republicans control the senate or if they do not, if the democrats control the senate. it almost frees the house to be more polarizing, potentially, the republican leadership, if there is no republican senate. then it becomes this odd game of the white house and the senate against the house. and that's just going to -- you know, we don't know yet the tone out of house republicans until we know who controls the senate and that's potentially going to be a problem for the white how. it would be easier if it were a

clean break, in an odd way, being the white house versus congressional republican. we'll have this weird dynamic between the senate and the house before this stuff even makes its way to the president. >> i want to talk about the house and look at a few races that you'll look at early in the evening if to get a sense of magnitude. it's not a question of if republicans take the house but a question of magnitude. tom periello trying to hold off robert hurt. and indiana 2 and kentucky 6. why do those matter? >> there's no one bellwether. you have to look at a basket of them. those are states, early, early states will get if you see three, four, five of those going republican. you'll know that they're having a pretty good night. if democrats are surviving --

maybe four or five of them. if you see democrats surviving in half of these, it means it's not going to be such a bad night. we'll be watching, since 10:00, we'll have a good idea whether this is a grande and/or venti election. >> you did your polling from there, the president was there friday night. >> we did our public opinion strategy did some overnight polling. the president went to that district down there in central virginia and they found that the republican is leading with 45, perriello at 42 and the third-party candidate is at 6. more people said they were less likely to support perriello because the president was there. if perriello is one of about a dozen, dozen and a half democrats who democrats believe can win without 50% because of third-party conservative challenger, perriello is sort of

the outside example of this, because he is actually advertising on behalf of the conservative candidate. and that's why the president went there. >> let's talk more about the president. the best-selling book "game change", mark halperin, which you wrote. i'll have you comment on this. let me put a portion of the book up on the screen. from the book, obama has failed to put forward what might be called the theory of the case, a sustained, compelling distillation of his vision of the role of government at this moment in history, the connective tissue between his inspirational rhetoric and concrete policy proposals, the absence of a theory of the case has persisted since obama arrived at the white house and it has left him worryingly indistinct figure, even among his supporters, with many of the left seeing him as a temporizing, compromising moderate while many of those in the center perceive him as having pitched to the left.

is that how we see him? >> the white house is way too slow to the challenges that emerged with the tea party movement and within the republic republican. very enthusiastic supporter when he got elected, that comes off as arrogant to me and does not seem to be in touch. two fundamental issues in the economy, the economist and the think tank people can say this recession is over. if you're in danger of losing your house and you don't have a job or you think you're going to lose your job, it doesn't get any worse than that. the white house was slow to respond to that in a passionate kind of proactive fashion. and so i think that they lost not just a beat but a couple of beats going into this. >> and to invoke jon stewart again, the president appeared on "the daily show" and people thought this was unsteady by the president. >> you wouldn't say you would run this time as a pragmatist? you would not? it wouldn't be yes, we can,

given certain conditions? >> no. i think what i would say is yes, we can, but -- but it is not going to happen overnight. >> doesn't sound like the fighter of 2008 that says we're not going to stop trying. we're going to keep fighting and really change this place. >> you hit the right exact word, fight. he is not seen as someone who gets up every day, fighting for the american people. what will be on the line starting tuesday night for him is if he's not seen very quickly as fighting for the american people for jobs and for their future, he is not going to win the fight to get re-elected or to be a successful second half -- have a successful second half of this term. >> something else he said that night in that interview with jon stewart, he said there's a lot of things we've done that the american public does not know about. americans, in some ways, are adverse to complexity when it comes to politics. they want things that are easy to understand and the white house has not always done a good

enough job of explaining even their accomplishments. >> and despite what governor kaine says, there are precious few democrats campaigning on the president's agenda. we've looked at this, studied this, and a fair amount of democrats are saying i voted for mccain. others are saying i voted against pelosi as speaker, others apologizing for their votes. >> they're running from him. if you look at the internet, a game changer in the american politics -- we've never seen the impact it's had like we did this year. in montana the other day, they had a banner, this is your ticket to get rid liberal -- and it had nancy pelosi's picture up there. a lot of people are running away from them and that has become part of the texture of this campaign, if you will. there's a separation from the white house and what's going on across the country. >> we'll take a short break here. i want to come back and talk about the message that everyone takes away from tuesday.

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♪ you know it's bad when the press asks if you'd take a lie detector test. meg whitman didn't tell the truth about not voting or about how long she lived in california. she got caught in insider deals at goldman sachs. she changed her story about physically abusing an employee.

she campaigned as tough as nails on immigration knowing her housekeeper of 9 years was undocumented. her tv ads have been condemned as false and misleading. and even her hometown newspaper said meg whitman has demonstrated "a loose relationship with the truth" we are back with our roundtable. i want to talk about how washington changes after tuesday but michele norris, let's talk about the drama in florida, the three-way race. former president clinton tried to urge meek, who is far behind, get out of the race, seemingly to help governor crist. this is all blown up because he says he's not going to do it.

crist says i don't know who i'm going to caucus with. it will depend. now clinton is trying to make up with meek. >> there's a worry that it won't just have an impact in florida, but it will have an impact around the country. the democrats have put a lot of effort into trying to bring out young voters tuesday and try to drive up the vote among african-americans. you talked about the impact of the internet, this is a story that's quickly become a national story beyond florida because of the blogosphere. bloggers were all over this. even if meek didn't step out, the impression is that someone tried to muscle him out of the race, which doesn't sit well with a lot of african-american voters. >> you see an impact, charlie? >> i don't think so. i don't think florida is on the radar screen outside of florida for people the way that a lot of these other races are. there's a lot more of these that are i think are engaged more so.

>> what do republicans take awith an way from election night? they're making rash promises out there. even governor barbour wasn't able to fill in the blanks where they're going to cut $100 billion and knowing that's not going to get anywhere near with dealing with the deficits. >> some republicans are already here in washington and are not running for re-election are beginning to look ascant at people coming on their side. they are expecting warfare going on. from south carolina, he will not just fall in line behind senator mcconnell, for example, from kentucky. michelle bachman, the volatile congresswoman from minnesota said we'll cut spending by 23% and we'll have the budget balanced. we'll repeal the health care bill. you're going to go to 33 million americans and take your card away and say your 26-year-old can no longer be on your policy? president bush introduced the prescription drug benefit now

over $1 trillion. are they going to pull that back in an effort to get -- there are big promises that are made that will be very hard to achieve and they're on the hill on the republican side there is already a lot of nervousness about how they get their act together and present a unified front. >> mark halperin, as you write in the book, how does the president change the game again? that's what he needs here. he has to have a different-looking washington. >> he can't be passive and he can't assume -- people said it's better for him politically if republicans take back control of congress. he can't assume that will automatically be better for him. is he not focused on this re-election as much as he is on getting things done. having a working majority in the senate is going to be difficult. he cannot just sit back. he has to not only as you talked about before from game change have a theory of the case, he also has to think about expanding his circle. he must improve his relationship with the business community in this country and he must win back the independent voters who

are going to vote in droves tuesday. >> look at his margin over mccain in independent voters in 2008, well ahead, 52-47%. you look at it today and our most recent poll, chuck todd, and he's completely upside down, 52% disapproval among independent voters. what's the road to recovery? >> it's going to be -- i think their hope is that this battle over the budget, the first six months, what i've had some folks tell me, both in the white house and on capitol hill, the budget fight of 2011 is going to be. that is where their lines in the sand will be drawn. the way the white house is hoping to look at this -- let's remember. republicans pick up 70 house seats, the very top of the ceiling, the republican majority in the house will still be smaller than the current democratic majority. what the white house sees as possible with this republican house majority is that they'll

have -- they will be pressured on two ends of this thing, tea party guys that will not fall into line with boehner and want these votes in repealing health care, want these big ticket votes and the guy that is realize that 2012 is coming and the president is going to be on the ticket and it's much harder to win some of these states and they are hoping there are 15 to 25 moderate that is they'll potentially be able to peel off on these budget fights on specific -- on social security, on medicare, on the health care plan and that's where they think they can at least start talking to independents again. >> republican key figure on the republican side of the hill said to me if obama plays small ball for the next couple of years and let's us fight among ourselves, if they have to increase the debt ceiling, for example, and members of the tea party say we're not going along with that and you get close to a government shutdown, which undid newt gingrich after '94, it

could work to his advantage. it will take a very skilled political figure to pull all that off. >> also, the prospect here is for a more liberal caucus in the house, a senate more difficult to control, more sharply divided and a conservative, republican party and caucus that's even more conservative. look at the bloomberg poll. it found that what it is that americans really want -- we'll put it up on the screen. 16% indicated the priority would be to stick to principles, even if it means gridlock. 80% said they want democrats and republicans to get some things done and work together. is that really possible? >> it will be difficult. many of the moderates on the democratic side, for instance, find themselves in the fight of their lives. this is where the recruiting effort in the last mid terms comes back to bite them in that they recruit d moderate candidates in republican-leaning districts who have a very difficult time now. if they leave, you're right, we'll wind up with a smaller, liberal democratic caucus and a

much more conservative, larger republican caucus. that does not lead to this kind of compromise that people want. >> candidate obama in 2008 agreed with that 80% and put himself forward as a person uniquely qualified, more qualified than hillary clinton and john mccain to get the parties to work together. he couldn't do it. in some cases, chose not to do it with republicans as the minority. now that they're the majority, the conventional wisdom is it will be even harder, that they will have won an election with tea party support, looking to 2012 to beat him. he needs to do what is necessary, fight for what is necessary to get that done. >> you talk about the partisanship during the election. one of the things you got to talking to people at the white house, they think it's overrated. they don't talk about it in the same way. >> we have to keep our eye on the big issues here. one of the big issues is what you wrote about, which is the war in afghanistan. in december, that's going to be a review. next july, we're talking about

pulling some of our troops out and talking to commanders on the ground. they're seeing some progress. but we're not having this debate. >> no, we're not. by the way, the weekend was a reminder of where we are in the war against islamic rage, where people can put detonation devices on u.p.s. and fedex planes and ship them into this country. we've lost thousands of young americans, so many of them have come back gravely wounded. 1% of the american population is doing 100% of the fighting. and that's not only unjust, it's immoral in a way and ought to be a dialogue in an election year of any kind, and especially in a year when the country says it's paying attention to what is going on. so, i think that's a big, missing compensate and nobody is putting it on the table except to say, well, we're going to support our veterans and support our defense budget. >> it is interesting, charlie cook, that the president has taken off the table the issue for republicans and somehow he

has not done a good job in protecting the country. a lot of continue utilize with the bush years and he has ramped up some of the efforts. it is sort of a nonissue for him. >> people thought would be his weakest, national security, at least as of this moment, isn't so much. the biggest problem -- when we see polling saying that people think that republicans would do a better job creating jobs for people than democrats, historically, that's very, very unusual. i think right now the democrats are paying a price for a focus that wasn't on the economy for all of last year, when they were doing cap and trade, when they were doing health care, they should have been focused on the economy. i tell my republican friends, consider this an unearned win. the republican party still has lousy numbers. they are the beneficiaries of this election, not the victors. and they should not overread a mandate here. people are just more mad at democrats than anything else. >> quick point. >> on afghanistan, the democratic caucus that will be left -- you brought this up --

it's going to be a very liberal, anti-war caucus. this will be a political challenge for him like no other. by the way, a lot of these tea party conservatives have all talked about we don't want to be there forever in these debates. it's not on the campaign trail but does come up in debates. i've monitored these tea party answers. i don't want to be nation builders. there may be a bipartisan majority on afghanistan in congress, but it may be to start speeding up the withdrawal. another quick break. when we come back, some final thoughts. i want to take up the important question as well, what do tuesday's results mean for 2012? . that first job launched my career. since i've been with the company, i've been promoted ten times over the span of 11 years. today, i'm a divisional learning and development manager. we can actually help people develop in their own careers. my job allows me to make a difference in the lives of almost 100,000 associates in the northeast. if you think about it, that's almost 8 times the size of my hometown. my name is nick and i work at walmart. ♪

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just a couple of final thoughts. chuck, you're thinking about 2012? >> i am. the white house is thinking a little bit about 2012. three states, florida, colorado and ohio. republicans are very excited about the sweep that they are going to have in wisconsin. it's bigger. every other midwestern state is explainable in a very state-specific way. wisconsin is a big comeback for republicans. they love the fact that they may really put it on the map in 2012. >> tom brokaw, final thought as we go into tuesday? >> as jon stewart might called me, i'm the old dude at this table so i remember a long time ago, at the end of the first two years of ronald reagan's administration, the unemployment numbers were higher than they are now, his approval ratings were lower than president obama's were. president clinton had newt gingrich sweep into office with the contract with america. both of them were elected by wide margins when they ran for a second term.

something to keep in mind. >> charlie cook, your final outlook for tuesday is what? >> explosive on the house and very impressive republican gains on the senate gubernatorial level. >> thank you. we'll leave it there. visit our website tomorrow for our web-only special "meet the press" 2010, the final countdown, special pre-election roundtable will break down everything you want to know going into tuesday. i'll be joined by charlie cook, jonathan martin, chris cillizza and our own anklely o'donnell, congressional correspondent. that's mtp.msnbc.com. tomorrow morning at 9:00 am is when you'll be able to see t please stay with nbc news all night on tuesday. i'll join brian williams and the rest of our nbc news team for complete, in-depth analysis. if it's sunday, it's "meet the press." you know, son, you should take up something more strenuous. you have different needs and desires. - i'm reading a book. - what's a book? so we tailor plans for individuals,

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