>> this is the "chris matthews show." >> ask not w your country can do for you -- >> i can hear you. >> the time for change has come. >> is she serious? sarah palin's is the republican front-runner. is she the genuine article? could she get vot?ers wouldche srahek t books? bottom line, is she willing to do what is is necessary to be a real presidential candidate? when will the 'oybs club meet? will they kiss good-bye what

what lookso be a solid target of the white house? is there a scheme to keep terrorists off planes? john heilemann, author, of game change, now in paperback. anne kornblut reihan salam and norah o'donnell. this week sarah palin in in primary states. it is time to make the decision, no, or -- go oar no go. can she broaden her appeal. this is the most popular republican in the polls. could she beat barack obama. today he would beat her 48-40 although he would be edged out by other republicans. republicans are -- independents are not favorable to her. second question, could she get

the thick skin all professionalals need? could she stop responding to every criticism? will she study up? when she quit the governor's job, she was going to learn policy. it seems to be on her to do list. john, to use your phrase, is 41 a game change? not to be a public figure, celebrity. is she going to change her act? >> i think the answer is yes and no. what we have seen already in the last couple of weeks when she gave an interview at the "new york times" magazine, she said, i know i'll have to change things. we seen her no substance try to gain bonus. the quantitative easing program. that was outside her bayliwick where she was tening outside that and showing policy muscle. what she won't change on is she won't try to become something she's not. shevbelies there's a different

way to run for president. she doesn't think the rules about how you run for president apply to her. she won't get off twitter and facebook. she thinks that's key to authenticity and her appeal. >> is 41 going to make the changes and -- is she going to make those changes and focus on the message of the day? will she book up on where she needs to be an expert? >> this is her biggest challenge. she acknowledges that. she has to let people in that she truss. she has a secretive group of advisors. she'll have to change that. as far as policy issues, she thinks her qualifications are misunderstood. it is interesting they -- they let it be known that she falls asleep with books. they're slowly making the changes so she could run if she wanted to. >> i think it was steve smith or the campaign chairman or sos for senator mccain that said she doesn't know anything.

that's profound. maybe it is oversaid. where is she onthat? >> it only matters if she announces. until she announces, she could be in the audience of dancing with the stars and t.l.c. and won't be held to that same standard. chris: is she starting do discipline herself saying i won't respond to that remark. >> it is hard to follow what she's doing. her aides leaked details. we have seen that before, when they weren't doing the work. i don't think it matters until sheff answers the questions and she's avoiding them. chris: the acid-test. she may say with sean hannity, i won't do a interview with katie couric. okay, fine. but how about nuth newt gingrich who will treat her like a pinata. >> if she running for the republican nomination, the other

challengers will be afraid to take her on in that way because she's a cultural lightning rod. if you demonstrate your contempt or condissension 0 to her, you're playing in her hands. peel will play her gingerly on the stage. chris: what will it be? >> killing her with kindness. by not being aggressive, they'll elevate themselves and not appear to be going into the muck. they're going to try to win her favor. the thing is, she has trai menduous following by republican voters. chris: you described her, strategic defense on her part. she's impregnant nabal to personal attacks. >> republicans like her. >> you're right. she ran against the boys' club in alaska and won. she'll do the same thing if she runs for president.

every other maehl republican that wants to run for president has so far been afraid to mention any criticism of her, instead praising her ontwitter and elsewhere. the only person that been willing to take on sarah palin is another woman, senator lisa mccows can i. chris: probably won't be another woman in the field. >> she will have a force field around her because of tath. she'll have a big constituency, like newt beginning rich that wants to run in her lane. the last thing he wants to do is attack her in a way that will alienate the group of voters. chris: she doesn't have to beef up because she's impregnant nabal already. >> her favorability is high. there's those that think she's presidential. >> even if someone doesn't attack her, on the stage she'll face questions from the journalists that ask the

questions. she'll still have to prove she has policy depth. chris: can she go all the way and win republicans in a primary setting. go through the schedule. she goes to iowa and south carolina. does can well where she's not a popular candidate and comes in second. she doesn't need independents. that issue that we raised there of having to appeal to independents. has that come alive until the speaker after she won the nomination? >> i think it is tough for her to win the republican nomination. i can see her winning in iowa. the trouble is that other candidates will coalesce . you may see something like what we saw in 2004 among the democrats where you see two candidates spending a lot of money sucking the oxygen up and afing goter each other aggressively. sarah palin like howard dean speaks to core conservatives. there's the sense maybe she's not right. there's those that want toeab t barack obama and want to be strategic about how they go about it. they may go with a candidate they don't love.

ch ris: the person that shows up in a caucus and primary is in the strategic. they're thinking what makes me happy when i vote? >> she got a great strength in that she's strong in iowa and nevada. very hard to stop won from winning if they win three out of four states. i think the fight will look like a ncaa tournament. there's two brackett, a populist practice. she's likely to win that bracket. there's a establishment bracket. chris: i call that eastern and western. who wince the eastern bracket. >> some governor whether romney or polenti or others -- one of those guys. schri: do you remember that? >> i want to remind everyone, two years ago it was a done deal and hillary was going to win. chris: who are the finliasts? >> ask me again in six months. chris: does she get in this,

automatic event. you said it so well, the boys' club. are we going to be afraid to be too tough with her? is that an advantage, can she use that and make it to the finals? shea gets a bye through the early fights. >> there are things that are unpredictable. john mentioned the possibility of a governor. the thing to understand some governors actually are going to occupy the populist niche as well. barack obama's great strength is that he was both the wine track candidate of the kind of upperly mobile college educated voters and then also an african-american candidate. there's perhaps somebody that could scratch both of those itches chris: who? >> i'm a fan of chris daniels. he won the youth vote. chris: he could break this bracket up. >> and rick perry of texas is a

hard-charging populist and could teach sarah palin dark arts on how he took on the establishment. chris: you know your stuff. get to the key question. we put it to the matthews meter. john and norah, could sarah palin beat barack obama with independents. 12-0 says she won't get the independent. . john, does it matter the whole fight, could she skid through there because they don't care what the independents think? >> yes. if you asked me today what the likely scenario. that's likely. she could win the republican nomination. that's the biggest hurdle to her being a general election candidate is the problem with independent voters. i don't see a way for her to solve that. chris: first your thoughts. could it be the republicans have a chance to win, barack obama won't be much above 50 in the next few months. they know this is a possible win for them, a year they could get the white house back. will they let her skid along and go with the far right people and

know she's getting nowhere with the independents. and they think, we're picking the next president of the united states? >> we're seeing it that's when the silver fox took on -- barbara bush took on sarah palin. chris: could glenn beck jump in immediately on her side and cused barbara bush of being the guy on the quaker oats box. >> wow. i think there's al adythe whispering out there that could somehow turn into sort of a movement. chris: great yes. >> trying to push sarah out of the race. chris: there's one ub unlikely democrat that comes up as being a natural, bill clinton. moxey and some mortsal may have gone away after the humiliating pounding that sarah palin took in 2008, she's somewhat of a comeback kid herself. clinton wouldn't call the media

lame string but he has said things about insiders that released those accounts about his deplease. he was the democrat's counter to sarah palin. she was using the campaign for her future. what y50eubs bill clinton's angle. he wasn't shy about the fact that the democrats ought to be missing him. >> i almost gag when i hear these republicans. no. no. lambasting the president and the democrats in congress. they're such big spenders. they're raese, they're quasisocial list and gone hog-wild mad. i have a simple question. who is the last president to give you a balanced budget sth he. croip clinton feeling clinton, nostalgia is nothing new. remember this from "snl" as he left office. >> i feel your pain and feel it now.

i will get a council to look into the ill legal eight-year term limit thing. i think there's fudging. if there's one thing i learned is our laws are like pin nat thats, the more you beat them, the more candy you get. i think i'll be able to run again by late october. chris: when we come back, the noise over airport screening lead to serious consideration of other ways to keep terrorists off our planes. wouldn't a real game change be if we got hit again. scoops and predictions and the top reporters, be right back.

chris: that was george clooney "up in the air" a satire but should they target the bomber or the bomb? a hot topic around our thanksgiving tables. one thing is off the policy table. the head of the t.s.a. has said, this country will not consider what israel does. >> the israeli model uses intelligence in different ways, profiling and then in terms of a patent, if they suspect you of something, you get a pat-down. that's top-notch security, the question is do we profile here? no, we don't. >> your parents came here from bangladesh, i want to know what you think of this. it is tricky.

>> the main thing i worry about. i think we're fighting the last war, not the next one. we wastedlbilions and billions of dollars, not including t wasted man hours. i think when you think about the problem, in israel one of the things they do can is look at what happens on the security line, what happens at the airport before you go through security. that's a point of extreme vulnerability chris: what would they look for? >> different bae haferse. chris: they look for behaviors? >> wide variety of things. you have people well trained and been doing this. they have a sense of what to look for. the other thing, i think we're grasping for easy answers. one is let him go through more intensive screening. i would be up for that. remember the bombings in london, one of those guys was jamaican. who yenu look at richard reed, he was half english. the circle of folks to atrget gets bigger and bigger then

you're talking about pretty much 60, 70% of the passengers. chris: this is disturbing because people think of an african-american on the new jersey turnpike and being stopped because of crime stats or something ikethat. we're talking about an organized group here. hooked lok, they have said recently we're going to get you. how do you find those people without dealing with this issue of ethnic profiling? >> i think -- part of the answer is to try to invest as much money as possible to keep people from getting to the airport. we think about how do we stop them in the line. if people want to screw up air travel, they could walk in the lobby at the check-in gate. chris: hist y0eush and -- history and nash nalt. >> we -- chris: we're in this

environment. 9/11 nine years ago. if a plane blows up, it seems all of this conversation which is general is going to be specific. who let that guy on the plane, that suicide bomber? then there will be the term, game change. we'll be in a different environment. >> no laughing and giggling about the pictures we have seen of agents feeling up and down people. people will blame the president of the united states. they will blame president barack obama. if you talk to security officials and those involved in airport security, they'll tell you they're very worried. we have had the underwear bomber. we have had the shoe bomber. we have had them in printer cart rans. they adapt their message. they believe people hide explosives in parts of their body. this is serious. one other very important point, t of hysteria about this, that everyone is being patted down. it is important to remember less than 3% of the 2 million passengers that go through lines

every day go through this pat-down search. >> i think it is less than 1%. if something happens -- chris: barack obama will be blamed. >> yes on the back end, what about the intelligence. never was it a t.s.a. agent that missed something. where was the c.i.a. and the information? >> i think we're looking at this the wrong way. i think the two big things that happened after 9/11 that made us safer. you reinforce the cockpit door. you taught pasngers they must resist. so that -- that is a big game change. chris: i'm with you on that. >> also, here's another thing. do we adequately screen bag an that is going on planes and cargo holds? chris: the strong men on the planes should be trained how to chris: the strong men on the [ mom ] my son only wantedow to one toy this year. i want a robosan 4000.

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chris: john, tell me something i don't know. >> going ba, every election cycle starts earlier. i think we won't have an republican announced candidate until march 15th. >> if palin decides to run, she'll wait to announce. i think she'll be one of the last to announce she's running for president. it benefits her to sit back and watch. >> president obama and the white

house are working on thetstae of the union address. i bet that's the moment when we start to see changes in the way he talks. chris: any recommendations for the white house staff? >> not that you're going to shake up. >> conservative backlash for the t.s.a. is part of a bigger revival of civil liberty talk. we'll see more in the next year or two. chris: the big question of the week, iseth pperfect storm that could bring real serious sweeping debt and entitlement reform this year?

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>> welcome back. this week president obama and republicans get together. the bipartisan debt report comes out this week. our big question, tea partiers went real cuts in the debt. es this call for big cuts. the president wants a legacy. is this a way to change things? >> no, the president is the one to go out and do something bold. the only way to deal with deficit is with taxes and spending and entitlement rosme. the republicans are not willing to september tax eacrinses and democrats are not willing to touch entitlement reform and

medicare and social security. it is not do-able. >> i hope that it is the perfect storm. if liberals won't get on board with cutting spending respect then it won't happen. >> and coming out of the president to pressure them, not because he wants to reduce the deficit but heading into releeks, that's important to independents. >> i think it is a great opportunity, i think the folks on the right embrace the report that surprised yearn. they actually outflanked those that say we're more sensible. chris: let's talk about youth. the youth will be saddled hitw this debt if we don't do something about it. thanks for sitting in this week. even loved you last week. again, that's the show. an