>> this is "the chris matthews show." >> ask not what your country can do for you. >> i can hear you. >> the time for change has come! >> taking charge with unemployment rounding to 10%, bankruptcy overseas, the national debt exploding. will president obama rise to the occasion? will he take a hard stand on spending and taxes? will he stand behind his commission's plan, grasp it with both hands and be the grown-up the country needs? majority politics. with 20% of voters calling

themselves progressives, if barack obama puts his shoulder to the wheel, can he have enough moderates to attack the dead. and soldiers fight. most military see no problem with open service by gays and lesbians, why are most arenas and half the combat ranks opposed? if we get rid of don't ask don't tell, how will we make it work. today, john heilemann, the national journal's susan davis, nbc's andrea mitchell and andrew sullivan. president obama is waist deep in crisis. it looks like one opportunity might be there for him. it's the universal agreement on every side of the spectrum here in washington that something has to be done to save our country from the growing national debt. the bipartisan commission couldn't get a commanding bipartisan for the plan. raising the retirement age for social security and restraining

medicare and medicaid. the bitter pill are tax increases and huge defense cuts. in the polls, a 1/3 of the country says they don't enough yet. to the 2/3 that have staked out a position, the liberals are the big supporters of the debt reduction and the moderat. the least receptive are self-described conservatives. john, this is irony to anyone who has grown up in american politics. conservatives are against big deficits. shouldn't they be out there at the ramparts, let's get something done? >> in washington, d.c., you have democrats who are broadly not enthusiastic about deficit reduction and you have republicans and conservatives who are not serious about deficit reduction. and increasing the bush tax cuts is a perfect example of that. back when the cuts were passed and the rare examples of the fiscal discipline, there was a sunset provision. they were supposed to end 10 years from now. we are here this is not about a

tax increase. this was built into the legislation. republicans would say as they are saying now that if we raise taxes, it is bad for a down economy. i guarantee you, if the economy were booming today, these same republicans would be saying we can't raise taxes now because it will choke off the boom. there is no way to deal with the deficit problem without increasing revenue chris: here is the fundamental question. andrea, do the conservatives would rather have the direction we're going in, bigger and bigger debt heading toward european problems than by increasing it with revenue increases? >> they don't see the question framed that way. they think it's possible or they claim they think that it's possible to do it on the spending cuts side. it's simply not possible. any way you look at it, even if you were attack all of the entitlements and do it as incrllentay as much as you could, you could not get to the number you reach without something on the revenue side. it's not doable. chris: will the republicans see

a road down to huge cuts, some substantial increase in revenue so we reach somewhere in the low 20's, our percentage of the economy that is going to the federal government? >> it wasn't approved. the majority vote is a pretty positive outcome on this. it's far more positive than anybody expected when obama attacked that commission. chris: you got people like durbin and ford, right and left. >> people who opposed it and somebody who is a very prominent figure in washington said next year said he didn't support it because of the health care. he thinks there is good components to this. he is going to include thisn his budget blueprint. the obama administration is going to include that in their budget. >> let's point out the fantastic irony that we have just gone through an election in which republicans campaigned day in and dayut o about the debt and now we find after the election that they're the least willing to tackle it. chris: explain. >> pure cynicism. they're trying to keep this

economy bad and keep mailing the debt on obama by the way who is not responsible for most of it so they can get back to power. they have no interest in solving the country's problem. they're the most irresponsible political party. chris: i'll make the evident here, we know by looking at robert samuelson, another smart economist who look at the numbers, down the road if we don't change anything in law, medicare and medicaid will stores the spending to 30% of the economy. you can't tax that much. you can try. are the democrats, andrea, who created these programs, they love medicare and medicaid and social security, are they willing to constrain their growth by raising the retirement age sometime in the mid century. i don't know who is worried about that now to something like 69 instead of 67. >> there is one big entitlement which the republicans created which the prescription drug entaillement. that's a holdover. chris: can they play their part if they can get a revenue

increase to balance it out? >> if they jump off this bridge to mix metaphors together holding hands, republicans and democrats, paul ryan and others leading the way, yes, in the new congress. >> they cut medicare in the health care reform bill alone. look at the numbers. chris: look at how b the situation is getting. i'm looking at debt in other countries. it's not imaginative to see our country being in trouble. >> not even in the long term. we could have a sovereign debt creation where the markets pposeimain on us in a much shorter period of time than 20 orea0 yrs from now. the point that we are making is this comes back to president obama. the republicans are not serious about deficit reduction as andrea said. democrats are not enthusiastic about it for the reasons that we know. the president is the only really serious adult in this conversation. against all of that, if he really thinks this is important, it is going to take an act of extraordinary political leadership and risk for him to do this. >> the state of the union, he

should say in my view, two years, my two years of this term will be devoted entirely to tackling our long-term debt. i will take the hit. chris: you're not president, that's the script. you just read the script. let's look at the matthews meter. 12 of our regulars including andrea, john, and andrew. could president obama command a national movement to get a sweeping debt reduction plan passed by congress? it's tied. i hate ties, but it is. 6-6. but of the meter, the three here today of you three, andrea, an drew, and john, you all are yeses. you say the president he knows this is the challenge of his presidency, the next two years in the first term. reduce the national debt and command the army in doing this. my question, will he? >> i have been disspirited by the lack of strategy on the part of the white house since the midterm elections. chris: generally? >> generally and more specifically on this. they did not manage this commission very well. i think that they missed rahm

emanuel, he would have managed this commission in a much more hands-on way. it worries me that he is not going to do it. as i say, i think he could and he knows how important it is and that it could be actually a political winne hforim if he can get everyone to hold hands and jump off the cliff together. chris: will he show some leadership? >> i think he will. they have been inept. chris: who? >> the white house. chris: go for it. >> they have mismanaged the lame duck. why didn't they do this before the election, i don't know. they knew they were going to lose the house. so why didn't they go for it and try to get things -- why didn't they go for star and work this over the summer. >> there have been so many times -- >> he can show the leadership. he has it in him. >> let me just remind us, there is so many times that we have torn what is oeftf our hair out. he hangs back. he hangs back. chris: remember that movie -- >> i have all of the time in the

world. he let hillary run away wihe tth primaries. he let her get new hampshire. he sits around and then he comes back. he is waiting for the state of the union which is the obvious moment to break through. if he does it right, i think that he will have a big impact as he did on health care when he let it spread out. september came back. got it in the end. chris: speaking of hair, i remember in that great movie "shampoo" when the hairdresser says i'm losing my concept. has the president from the congressional point of view still have a concept of a strategic leadership to take this country somewhere? does he have one and will congress follow him? >> this is a good dynamic for barack obama. after republicans control the house now gives him a foil. we saw it before last year when he went and met with republicans -- chris: meaning what? >> he can fight with them. he can show fire in a way that he has not shown it. chris: wait a minute. what does that do to get something done? >> you're talking about trying to build up publicpouprt for these things.

i disagree that the fiscal commission -- it was much more successful with that. i totally disagree that the momentum is not there on capitol hill. the problem that both parties have to do is the only way to get it done is not necessarily work together. they have shown they can do that. parties have to so anger their bases to get to where they need to be. that is the equation. chris: is there a possible grand storm of possibility where the president says to the tea party people, you know, i have been listening to you people out there. yo u have got some good arguments. >> i do think people with paul ryan and john boehner. they want to get something done for their own political -- >> until we repeal the entire health care reform, no deal. that is such a hard ideological -- >> the tea party movement is the perfect vehicle. chris: i think it's the opportunity. >> so far, this would mark a real change of course. so far whenever barack obama has spoken about the tea party moment, he has done it in dismissive and condescending ways. l hasheisten to the way that

bill clinton talked about the tea party last fall. he says i have to understand why you're angry. chris: before we break, there was a great moment earlier this week on "morning joe." they had richard dreyfuss the great actor on who was promoting civic education in this country. there he was back in 1978 working for equal rights, the e.r.a. amendment with like minded lauren bacall and marlow thomas. when he was on "morning joe" this week, richard dreyfuss, it was the odd couple. pat buchanan was on the show that day and he told the story when richard came to see him in the reagan white house back in 1986. >> he was coming into see me. we're going to talk about the constitution and just before he came in, don reagan came into my office and said we're bombing libya tonight. ollie north's speech, he wrote it. the president wants you to rewrite it and duddy kravitz

came into see me and we couldn't get him out of miss office. we called the second and called the president to get him out of my office to his so i could write my speech. >> we were in the oval office and patrick is gone. 45 minutes reagan is talking to me about the constitution very well. i go home -- at 45 minutes, i said, i guess you got a country to run and i went back to the hotel and i'm in the shower and i hear we have bombed libya. and robert byrd says, i'm pissed off because at 3:30, the old code. i said 3:30, i was with the president at 3:30. nobody said. two years later he is on the larry king show and he says, what happened was oliver came in and said it's a go. we need you. he said i got this actor. he said get rid of him. and he said all right, i'll give him to the president. he has nothing to do.

>> well andrea, digging from some old stuff that very day, we turned this up from the "today" show the next morning. >> and justifying the attack on a nationwide radio and television broadcast, president ray ghan said the united states was retaliating for libya's reign of terror. more from andrea mitchell. good morning. >> top white house officials say that the president was trying to send a message to libya and the decision to use military force against terrorism was a mildstone, a turning point in american foreign policy. chris: yeah. >> that is my younger sister, the brunette, my evil tn.wi chris: when we come back, why the commanders in the field are worried about gay soldiers serving openly. are there some unconvenient facts out there. and "scoops and predictions" reporters.otebooks of theseop we'll be back.

chris: welcome back. repealing don't ask don't tell was an obama promise. this week the civilian commander robert gates says the military will get the job done. >> if the congress of the united states repeels this law, this is the will of the american people and you are the american military and we will do this and we will do it right. chris: but some of the uniformed military testified this week about their reservations. >> it is difficult for me as a member of the joint chiefs to recommend placing any additional discretionary demands on our leadership in afghanistan at this particularly demanding time. chris: theervice commander doesn't want to put any social pressure byicas bally allowing open service to men and women

fighting right now on the front in afghanistan. you have been a big advocate for open service, andrew? >> there is social pressure on those people serving who are gay. it's like fighting with a knife in your back. so the idea, which pressure do yo u want to have? in the study when you asked, even those combat units that seemed to have the highest levels of resistance, there was a big discrepancy between those who knew gay soldiers who were totally fine with it and those were didn't. a lot of this in the combat units, the majority of soldiers and servicemembers are fine with this. in the combat units, the issue is ignorance and fear. as soon as they know a gay guy, a great quote in the report saying yeah, we have a gay guy in the unit. he is big, mean, and really good ilat kling people. we don't give a damn if he is gay or not. of course, they don't, they're fighting. chris: do you find it unbelievable that people in the military don't know any gay

soldiers? >> among those in combat who have worked and fought alongside gay men and women, they don't have a problem with it. what secretary gates said is you have a lot of young people over there who have volunteered for thvisere ce who are in combat and they will do what we tell them to do. they are fighting and following orders. it's just that most of them have not dealt with women either. >> the point is also, chris, that if this happens, these gay servicemembers are among the most conservative. they're not going to come out. chris: of people who were serving on active duty, gay people will say that they're gay, so in other words, about the right to say who you are, not thpl peoe want to. >> it's about taking the knife out of their back. in britain, where it happened, no one came out. chris: you covered the hill. if we get rid of don't ask don't tell, is the congress going to

act in the lame duck session? >> no. chris: they're not going to do it. mccain can stop this? >> 42 senators signed a letter that says we're not going to vote on anything until we get done with spending and tax cuts. if it doesn't happen in the lame duck, it's not going to happen. chris: if we get a vote on taxes in two weeks, there is still time before christmas to make a simple vote yes or no on this thing? >> this whole debate is so ridiculous because the people who seem to think that there is a problem here -- they're casting aspersions on the military. the u.s. military is a professional organization. there is no professional organization in the united states that does not admit allow gay people to be open about their gayness. it's not accepted. these people are professionals just like any other branch of professionals. they will accept it and follow orders. they will assume otherwise, and it den greats the professionalism. >> admiral mullens said you ask these people to be honest in every way in the military code and we ask them to hide a key

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chris: welcome back. john, tell me something i don't know. >> we all know that the israeli-palestinian peace process has not been going well. it's worse than what people think. between now and christmas, there is a pretty good chance that the administration will explicitly

on effectively call it quits on that. chris: terrible. susan. >> trouble in the democratic party. one of the things that was highlighted this week was the congressional black caucus and the anger over the seven sure of charlie rangel. it's a political problem for nancy pelosi and for the white house as well. chris: they think it's preferential? >> they think that the seven sure was out of line. chris: andrea. >> the nail in the coffin of the star treaty ratification could come from wikileaks. the notes. negotiations may be part of the one of the documents. chris: how about the bad-mouthing of clinton? >> that didn't help at all. >> within five years, the euro will be over. now, it will be a euro based upon germany and france as it always should have been and the peripheral countries will fall away. it will be the major crisis for european integration.

chris: the big question of the week. the president went to afghanistan this friday. is pressure growing to trim our commitment there? be right back.

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chris: welcome back. the president went to afghanistan on friday. >> because of the progress we're making, we look forward to a new phase next year, the beginning

of a transition to afghan responsibility as we do, we continue to forge a partnership with the afghan people for the long term. chris: later this month, there will be a full review of progress on the war. our big question this week, is there growing effective pressure for us to trim our commitment in afghanistan on the president to pull out, john? >> i think there is. it partly comes from what we have learned last week from the wikileaks. it's not something that we didn't know before, but the extent of the corruption and the unreliability of the karzai regime is brought to life in those documents and for a lot of people who are leaning toward that direction, when are we going to get done with this. this is no good outcome. >> i would actually take the positive view. people are going to have this debate. there are more republicans in the senate and they're taking over the house. they have opposed the 2011

withdrawal from the beginning. >> i think there is is going to be growing public pressure. i'm not sure wh v theatotes are going to be. susan is a better expert on that than i. i believe that this latest, these documents, this portrayal of the karzai government is profound. >> not only do i think that obama is going to start aggressively withdrawing as of july of 2011, it's a winner electorally. he will dare the republicans to support increased commitment to nation building in afghanistan and split their base because basically, look, what could be less conservative than attempting to turn afghanistan into a democracy. chris: it may make john mccain loe mor old hat than ever. thanks for a great roundtable. that's the show. thanks for people! look at you! texting...blogging... all this technology,

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