>> this is the "chris matthews show." >> ask not what your countryan c do for you. >> i can hear you! >> the time for change has come. [captioning made possible by nbc universal] >> at least a dozen republican candidates for 2012 are building their armies. by memorial day, they will all be in the field, all hoping on take on barack obama. we begin our looatk the men and woman who would be the 45th president. we start with the leader, mitt romney, son of george romney who tried to 1968. mitt romney has been in politics for 17 years, ran for the senate, lost to ted kennedy, ran

for massachusetts governor and won. four years ago, he ran for president and lost. the party of "wait your turn," will they say, now it's mitt's turn? and finally, pin the tail on the donkey. house republicans will vote wednesday to repeal obama's health bill. the senate is never going to buy it, the president won't sign it. what's the deal? with us today, "new york magazine's" john heilemann, "politics daily's" alex wagner, nbc's kelly o'donnell and nbc's chuck todd. all the republican action is in washington right now but the real republican story is the fight to beat barack obama next year and on that front, the important action isn't here in washington, it's out there. right now, 12 armies are pitching tents, gathering strengge, gttinad rey.th today we launch our 12 for '12

series putting a sharp eye on the huge republican field. the possibilities are mitt romney, mike huckabee, sarah palin, newt gingrich, tim pawlenty, haley barbour, john thune, mitch daniels, john huntsman and rick santorem. many say it's up to sarah palin. if she's in, that steals the oxygen from others, john thune and rick santorem. palin has threatened several others but many would hang in and chief among them, mitt romney. romney is considered the leader based on having run last time, raising money. john, you've been out there, you're writing a book for the next presidential campaign already. mitt romney, is he in the best spot right now in terms of palin's possible in or out and

everything else considered? >> i don't think anything palin does will affect romney. chris: why not? >> he'll be running in the establishment bracket and he'll be competing with whoever emerges from the populace bracket. you said a lot of the right things, chris. he's raised a ton of money, given out a ton of money, he's been out there for two years quietly talking to local officials and business people building support in the republican establishment leading up to this. he's also got a very good team of people and a lot of continuity. the people with him in 2008, almost all of them will be back with him in 2012 and you can't underestimate the strength that gives him. chris: here's a business candidate, what is his unique selling point? >> that he is the competency candidate. this is a guy who made a bunch of money, he is sort of a

mr. fix-it and if that's what the election is going to be about, who will go into washington and fix washington. but i have to say, what's fascinating about watching mitt romney and this entire field is why it's taking so long for the actual race to start. the only person happy that it's taking a long time to start is romney because he's been through this before. chris: so he's already established. he has less to advertise. >> i think the others are helping romney and to go to the sarah palin point, nobody wants her to run more than mitt romney chris: i hear that from him. >> because suddenly that may be the only way he ignites the establishment tea party crowd. chris: we're always talking about the man andn womafor the times. these times, 10% unemployment, persistent economic challenges, a freshman president in many ways. what unites a romney presidency with the times? >> certainly the managerial aspect and he can make up for some of the charisma deficit

that the president presents by talking about his resume. he can weigh heavily on being an establishment figure but people around him want to defuse the notion of being a frontrunner because you can look at palin having been the v.p. nominee as the frontrunner in inheritance. mike huckabee, who had more delegates in the end, he could be next in line and by defusing that, it still allows romney to be in that position without it being quite so obvious. chris: he likes a wide field. i remember moderating the debate the last time and there were 12 guys in the reagan library and i think he liked the fact there was a long lfst oi guys. >> he wants a large field because he can survive that. chris: we have a new person on the block here, alex, and you get to start off on the negatives. what is the big, fat, unmentioned intangible wrong thing why nobody's excited about this guy? >> i think we're talking about wheaties and kix on one side and

count chockula and fruit loops on the other and we have a g.o.p. infatuated with count chockula and fruit loops. mitt romney belongs on a bill or a coin. he's the good son. >> he's fiber cereal. >> exactly. >> the problem is, as they say in the party for him, he's got to deal with this problem of being in a party where a lot of establishment characters went down in 2010. he is all those people, we know that. >> we love to jam things into an historical context, my colleague, mark murray, said it's amazing how the 12-man field has the feel of the 2004 campaign. palin is like a howard dean or michelle bachman type of thing where they're just hanging around and everybody will just

say, you know what, he won't get blown out. chris: you're covering this coming wednesday, we're getting to the healthcare thing. how do they run a candidate who did in massachusetts exactly that they hate obama for doing, requiring people to have healthcare? >> that's one of the biggest challenges he has and the difference he can have between his time in massachusetts and passing that and today, the only sunshine you can bring to it is having learned from mistakes, has seen what worked and what didn't. the only thing they can do is say he's got experience with it. chris: i'm not sure there's anybody here to speak for the group but in the country there are people out there, evangelicals, who have a problem from the l.d.s. religion, church of the later -- latter day saints. what is itbout it that's a problem for him? >> to be crass about it, in the south, it's a battle for pews

and church dollars. the mormon church is the fastest growing religion. chris: so it's compete sniff. >> a little is it's competitive but the question is, has evangelical anxiety over mormonism, has that died down? you don't hear it as much this time around. chris: could it kick in? >> it could kick in there. chris: south carolina, where it's very baptist. >> but i'm an optimist about this for romney. i feel like it's played itself out. >> he is not going to run big in iowa. they know that -- big mistake last time, they put all the chips in iowa and were blown out. he's going to foc onus the harategy that, i will win new mpshire, survive iowa, get through south carolina and get to florida and michigan, get to bigger states, california, place where is he can play and there's less of that anti-morman antipathy. chris: i heard that romney really wants sarah palin in the field because when there's 12 people out there, all the people

on the panel asking questions, the audience will watch her. is that good for romney because she takes the oxygen out of the room, kills huckabee, kills thune, and all you want to hear is her and romney stands back, stately, grown up, waits his turn. >> i think that's mama grizzly versus the baronstein bears. there's no way sarah palin won't channel that pseudo feminism from 2010 that you saw. that is a problem for mitt romney. chris: can she do that to a guy like romney? >> not with a strong wife like ann romney. she has a presence, as well. and you're right on target, if we never hear the phrase "man up" again, i'll be happy. chris: how do i say, man up, to someone with 25 grandkids. >> i go back to the fact that the guy to watch is john thune,

because -- you get the feeling there's a lot in the party that want a new face, that want somebody who's a little bit populace but at the same time acceptable to the establishment world. thune is that guy. chris: would you put the new kid on the block against barack obama? >> i would take a new guy. chris: we put it to the matthews meter, 12 of our regulars, including john and kelly. a year from now when the primaries start, if sarah palin is running, will mitt romney be in the lead? eight say no and four say yes. john said he won't be in the lead but kelly says he'll be up there. >> these are tough choices. and i think that part of what we were talking about just a moment ago when you can have a wider field where other people's mistakes get some of the attention and the shiny object factor gets attention, then he can remain that, o.k., that's

the guy kind of thing. chris: speaking of shiny objects, talked this week with michelle bachman who is a genius for getting publicity. she is so outrageously interesting as a political figure. is she going to actually run for the presidency? >> she's going out to iowa. this is -- is like sarah palin part b. >> there's only one right answer to that question and it's, god, i hope so. she's running for senate. she was kicked out of house leadership. what this this is all just a smokescreen, gather names and run for senate in minnesota. i don't think she could win a statewide race but she will raise money. chris: will republicans value someone who rouses them up, a firecracker of a candidate, count chockula, or do they want a manager given the fact that the economy will still be dicey?

>> i think in the end, sarah palin and the populace, i think in the end republicans will go back to what they have always been. they'll end up with a governor, more solid. >> i would like to believe that but i think ultimately you have so many moderates in that field right now that it's entirely possible that a fire brand will end up running away with it. chris: count chockula? >> count chockula. >> i think the force of history is strong with republicans to go with the good old guy. >> the only way it's a new person, it would have to be thune or mitch daniels who figures out how to straddle the fence, anti-washington, and can be both. chris: young-old man. >> that's it. chris: we'll look at the rest of the g.o.p. field and before we break, 12 republicans running for 2012 is a huge field but not unprecedented. so if you're on stage with a cast of thousands, how do you stand out a bit? you come in with a set piece,

hoping for a chance to unfrill it like winston churchill, these guys spent much of their lives preparing impromptu responses and staffs worked overtime coming up with the lines that would connect . in 1984, wendy's hamburgers was all over the t.v. with this line. >> it's a big bun. >> it's a very big fluffy bun. >> where's the beef? >>? chris: so, in the huge democratic debate that spring, fritz mondale's staff wanted him to use that line and he rehearsed and rehearsed and found his chance. >> when i hear your new ideas, i'm reminded of the ad, where's the beef? chris: and in joe lieberman showed up with this. >> in the bush administration, the foxes are guarding the foxes and the middle class hens are getting plucked.

i want to make sure i said, "plucked." >> roger that. [applause] >> roger that, senator lieberman. noted. chris: that was brian williams. and the same year john kerry came prepared for this question. >> the wrap on you is that you're a northeastern liberal elitist and you have a problem connecting with people. how do you dispel that notion? >> wait until you see my video, "keri gone wild." chris: back in 2007, it was the g.o.p.'s turn at the stage. mike huckabee had this pearl ready. >> we have a congress that spent money like john edwards at a beauty shop. >> and the winner, john mccain waited for the perfect moment to remind everyone of his p.o.w. days. >> senator clinton tried to spend $1 million on the

woodstock concert museum. now, my friends, i wasn't there. i'm sure it was a cultural and pharmaceutical event. i was tied up at the time, but the fact is -- the fact is -- chris: senator and former p.o.w. of vietnam earned the right to make that crack. when we return, we know healthcare won't be repealed next week so what is the point of the house voting to kill it?

chris: welcome back. with the midterm rebuke of barack obama that came last november, the real rebuke starts this coming week. house republicans will vote to

repeal this wednesday the president's signature healthcare law, even though it's only symbolic because the senate will not go along and the president will not sign that bill. polls show solid majority support many of the healthcare provisions in the obama-care and at the state level where the law will be implemented, the governors have begun complying with the law. so, kelly, i guess i ask this question, big symbolic vote, let's the hoopla. how does this help republicans? >> it's keeping a promise from the campaign trail and having a week to call the president's healthcare reform law job killing. and by doing that, they're focusing attention on jobs and not looking like they're all about healthcare right away. chris: do they want those headlines? >> they're going to get the best of both worlds because they'll be able to say they did it but there are no consequences to it and they have an added benefit

and this goes into their thinking as to why they did it early. i think their ability early on to remind the voters and the base, the senate's going to hold everythingen -- up so don't hold us accountable when we can't get something accomplished, look at the senate. even our biggest promise, we can't. chris: the campaign was to put in a better system. >> they're going to create jobs, promote economic recovery, reduce premiums, they're going to all these things and put soda in the water fountains and make recess two hours longer. this is not practical or applicable. chris: is this just a show? >> yeah. there's no substantial basis whatever. the republican party wants to have this issue not just this year but in 2012 to run against

barack obama. this is not the last we've heard of anti-obama-care. chris: they'll use it against mitt romney at the solar plexus of mitt romney. when we return, tell me something i don't know.

chris: welcome back, john, tell

me something i don't know. >> the appointment of bill daley at white house chief of staff, the white house now has a strong economic voice inside the white house and that means a lot of things but it also certainly means that someone who has been more criticized than any other obama cabinet member, tim geithner, will be there for the rest of his term. >> if the republicans keep on with the 14th amendment debate there's a chance obama could care arizona. chris: kelly. >> they're letting blackberries, ipods be used on the house floor. republicans have brought technology to the floor but no phone calls, please. chris: blasphemy! >> harry reid and mitch mcconnell, the real guys that are running congress are harry reid and mitch mcconnell. harry reid is the pocket veto. president will not veto anything in his first term because of harry reid.

chris: when we return, by the spring, who's going to be on top, key question, the president or republicans in the house? ♪ let's go out to the dmv

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at&t. rethink possible. now get up to $300 back in promotion cards. shift your weight forward onto the left foot. take the right leg up, holding the inner arch of the foot... introducing instant action alerts, only from chase. left arm up... manage your account and help avoid overdrafts with a click of a button. just reply to the alert with how much you want to transfer. inhale, all the way up... so you always stay in balance. ...to crescent pose. chase what matters. just four more times. ♪ chris: welcome back. this week's a new era in washington with republicans in charge of the house and a

stronger republican presence in the senate which brings us to the big question this week. by spring, the end of this season, who will have the upper hand, president obama or the republicans running capitol hill? >> i think president obama will be looking pretty good partly to do with the economy, partly due to the fact that he'll have a big, bold state of the union and republicans will have capitulated on some things. i think we'll have strong job numbers in the first three months. >> i'm in complete agreement. i think the economy's better, obama will be flying on angels wings while they scrum it out in congress. >> dare i beofart the chorus? i think that the president is due for a moment here. chris: who will be on top? >> i'm going to say the president because there's a cyclical thing and republicans may lose a bit of steam. >> he's been on top the whole time but it's been a race to the bottom.

so people's antipathy toward congress isn't going to go away. i will put an edge on it. chris: you're saying the republicans are down the drain. >> no, i'm just saying that's what we'll see and nothing's going to change it but obama 2.0, bringing in daley. chris: it's a sign of life he can make big decisions not just promote people from within. >> he did this himself. >> all of the bounce from the big december. chris: the ability to make moves constantly. thanks to a great roundtable, john heilemann, alex wagner, kelly o'donnell and chuck todd. that's the show. people! look at you! texting...blogging... all this technology, but you're still banking like pilgrims!

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