this sunday, egypt in revolt. [ signs ] tens of thousands of anti-government protesters defy a military curfew and other attempts to quell the uprising, pouring into the streets, demanding the oufer of president hosni mubarak. president obama walks a fine line, supporting a vital u.s. ally and also siding with the egyptian people who want freedom and their democratic rights. >> these are human rights and the united states will stand up for them everywhere. >> can mubarak, egypt's ruler for three decades, survive. and if he goes, will an islamic

extremist movement replace him? what are the implications for the rest of the middle east if the democratic wave keeps growing. relations with israel, iran's flus, u.s. oil interests and stability in a crucial region of the world. our guest this morning, secretary of state, hillary clinton. also part of our special coverage. a report from nbc krif correspondent richard engel on the ground at a former middle east negotiator and ambassador to israel for president bill clinton. back home in his state of the union address, the president promptses to win the future. but what can actually get down this year? with us, the republican leader in the senate, mitch mcconnell from kentucky. and how foreign policy will impact the comingspending.

with us, mike murphy, harold ford, nbc news chief white house correspondent, chuck todd, and washington correspondent for the bbc, caddy kay. captions paid for by nbc-universal television good morning, day six of the you rest in egypt, protests giving way to arson and looting. defiant egyptians picking over the streets as the military does little to hold back the tens of thousands of demonstrators. estimates of more than 100 people killed this morning. and president hosni mubarak clinging it power after firing his cabinet and installing the country's intelligence chief as vice president. here with me now for the very latest on the crisis, the secretary of state, hillary clinton. madam secretary, welcome to "meet the press." >> thank you very much, david. >> i know our time with you is limited. on monday you said that the egyptian government was stable and was looking for ways to

respond to the wishes of the people. have you changed your view? >> you know, david, this is a very volatile situation. and i think that as we monitor it closely, we continue to urge the egyptian government as united states has for 30 years, to respond to the legitimate aspirations of the egyptian people. and begin to take concrete steps to implement democratic and economic reform. at the same time, we recognize that we have to deal with the situation as it is. and we are heartened by what we hear from our contacts at least thus far. the army has been trying to bring a sense of order without violence. and we have to make a distinction as they are attempting to do, between peaceful protester, whose aspirations need to be addressed. and then those who take advantage of such a situation for looting or other criminal

activity. and we have a very clear message -- long-term stability rests on responding to the legitimate needs of the egyptian people. and that is what we want to see happen. >> are you calling the regime of hosni mubarak stable this morning? >> i'm not going to get into either/or choices what we're saying is that any efforts by this government to respond to the needs of their people, to take steps that will result in a peaceful, orderly transition to a democratic regime, is what is in the best interests of everyone. including the current government. >> you've talked about the steps that are necessary for the regime to take. in order to really respond to the wishes of the people, your twitter yesterday, that the egyptian government can't rue shuffle the deck and then stand pat. president mubarak's words

pledging. are you ask mubarak to say unekwifly he will not run. >> we have been urging free and fair elections for many years. i think it's important to recognize through republican and democratic administrations alike, america's message has been consistent. we want to see free and fair elections. and we expect that that will be one of the outcomes from what is going on in egypt right now. we have been spending that message over and over again, publicly and privately. and we continue to do so. >> is the only way that mubarak stays in power for now, is if he calls immediately for free and fair elections and pledges that he will not run? >> david, these, these issues are up to the egyptian people. and they have to make these decisions. but our position is very clear -- we have urged for 30 years that there be a vice president. and finally, a vice president was announced just a day or two ago. so we have tried to in our

partnership with egypt, to make the point over and over again, about what will create a better pastway for the egyptian people, in terms of greater participation, with political reforms and greater economic opportunity. you know, i spoke about this very clearly in doha, it seems like a long time, but just about two weeks ago, where i outlined that whatever was possible in the 20th century is, no longer possible for regimes in the 21st century. the world is moving too fast. there is too much information, people's aspirations and the rise of the middle classes throughout the world demand responsible participatory government and that's what ewant to see happen. >> do you think that the mubarak regime has taken the necessary steps to retain power? >> i think there are many, many steps that have to be taken. and it's not a question of who

retains power. that should not be the issue. it's how are we going to respond to the legitimate needs and grievances expressed by the egyptian people and clear the path. the path that has not been followed has not been one that has created that democratic future, that economic opportunity that people in the peaceful protesters are seeking. so it's our very strong advice, which we have delivered, president obama spoke with president mubarak. i spoke with my counterpart. secretary gates spoke with his. this is an ongoing diplomatic process that's going on for 30 years. now is the time to take concrete steps, to create the political space to peaceful protest and the creation of peaceful oppositions that want to work towards a better future. that's what we want to see. >> should mubarak lose power,

would the united states offer him sangt wir ctuary? >> i believe strongly that we're only at the beginning of what's unfolding in egypt. i won't go into speculation, other to say that president mubarak and his government have been an important partner to the united states. let's not just focus on today. this is a government that made and kept peace with israel that was incredibly important in avoiding violence, turmoil, death in the region. but so much more has to be done. and that's what is what we're urging. >> but you'd like to say him stee in power. >> david. you cannot try to keep putting words in my mouth. i've never said that, i don't intend to say that i want the egyptian people have the chance to chart their father. it should be an orderly, peaceful transition to real democracy. not faux democracy, like the elections we saw in iran two years ago.

where you have one election 30 years ago and then the people just keep staying in power and become less and less responsive to their people. we want to see a real democracy that reflects the vee bribrancy egyptian society. we believe that president mubarak, his government, civil society, political activists need to be part of a national dialogue to bring that about. >> before you go, are americans in danger in egypt? >> we're working closely with egyptian government to insure the safety of american citizens. we have authorized a voluntary departure. we're reaching out to american citizens. as i'm speaking to you at this part, thankfully we do not have any reports of any american citizens killed or injured. we want to keep it that way. we're just working triple-time here at the state department to insure the safety of our americans. >> secretary clinton, thank you. >> thank you. now let's go live to cairo.

where we're joined by nbc news chief foreign correspondent, richard engel. has been reporting on this story throughout. richard, it is now almost sunday evening. give our viewers a sense of what's going on right now. >> the arm is trying to make a show of force, more troops have been called in and i'm sure any second now, you're going to hear two egyptian fighter jets that have been circling low over the city. the army is trying to tell the people the government still exists. the army is still in power. even though we don't see police on the streets and there has been a great deal of looting. >> looting overnight. and we saw some of those pictures. why was that so important? who was involved in that. and what did they do to crack down? >> here come those jets. the looting is what is, i'm not sure if i heard all of your question because of the jets. the looting is ha egyptians are

mostly focused on right now. many people have set up private vigilante groups in front of their homes. people are gathering together, families are living in the same apartment, when they can. people are afraid. this is no longer just a political movement with protesters on the streets. but there is is a basic collapse of law and order. >> given that collapse. but given the relative restraint of the military, what does that say to you, about mubarak's future? >> the army has been called in, but the, the soldiers have not been firing on demonstrators. there have been tanks in the streets. they have been welcomed by the protesters. that shows that the army clearly has not been given an order to attack the demonstrators, it's unclear if the army would carry that out. because we've seen a lot of soldiers who themselves have been standing up, cheering with the demonstrators.

there seems to be a solidarity between the soldiers on the ground and the demonstrators themselves. we have also been told that there are discussions and disagreements between the senior leadership of the egyptian army and president mubarak himself. there's been talk of a coup, clearly we cannot get any confirmation or comment from the army, if it's planning a coup or not. >> talking to egyptians who are pro festers, what does it feel like for them in the middle of this moment? >> every egyptian that i've spoken to says the government is allowing a degree of chaos to happen, in order to punish the people. the government doth like these demonstrations. president mubarak feels personally threatened by they will. and most egyptians believe the police were pulled back. thousands of inmates were allowed to escape from prison. some say they broke out. maybe 10,000 prisoners, rapists,

murderers, islamic militants have escaped on to the streets. and egyptians say this is all allowed to happen in order to show the egyptian people an alternative to a strict state. now the egyptian government says that is not the case. that it is trying to regain order. but the egyptian people think that the president mubarak wants to show them, well, if you protest, the alternative is chaos. >> richard engel, thank you for all of your reporting and we'll stay tuned. thank you very much. now i want to turn to the republican leader of the senate, mitch mcconnell of kentucky, senator, welcome back to "meet the press." a developing story, so much to talk about in terms of egypt. what is your reaction to hearing secretary clinton this morning and the administration's stance? >> i don't have

he's failed to democratize? >> i've said that to president mubarak over the years. the last time in 2009, i was there. we had a chance to talk about this issue. second clinton said, it's been on the agenda for a long time. a lot of us felt that had he moved on some of these issues,

we'd have had a much smoother transition than we're, witnessing now. >> can he stay in power? >> look, it's not up to us to, to give the egyptians advice about this. you know, hopefully the transition will occur relatively peacefully. and at the end of it all, i hope we still have an important ally in the middle east? >> you'd be prepared to recognize whether it's mubarak, whether it's egyptian brotherhood. whoever takes control in egypt, united states will be an ally of? >> it's up to egyptians to determine who their leadership is, we'll take a look at it after that. >> let me turn to other big matters in washington. i guess the overarching question in terms of a new foreign policy test for this president, how important, what's important about how he handles it for you? >> well, i think, i don't have any criticism of the way -- you're talking about the egyptians? >> yeah. >> i don't have any criticism of president obama or secretary

clinton at this point. they know full well that we can't give the egyptians advice about who their leadership is. that's beyond the reach of the united states. and i think we ought to speak as one voice during this crisis. and so i'm not -- >> what about u.s. military aid, over $1 billion, $1.3 billion. is that on the table? should that with beheld if things don't go the way we want them to go? >> answering hypotheticals is not a good idea at this time. >> the state of the union this week is what we were stalking about until this got out of hand. one of the big issues is what are republicans prepared to do as we move forward in this year, in terms of working in this era divided government. rand paul, the junior senator, excuse me, rand paul, the senator from kentucky, the-or-senator from kentucky, talked this week and pointed up some of the divisions within the gop ranks. this is what he said. >> some said when people who came from the tea party were elected, that washington would co-opt us. the interesting thing is, is

that i think we're already co-opting washington. >> you talk about earmarks. you talk about some of the sentiment about spending. is the tea party sentiment driving the gop now? >> i find great unity among republicans. not only the members who are here, but the new parties who came are interested in tackling the spending and debt and getting the private sector going again. i think the most interesting unreported divisions in the town are among democrats. i mean if you look at senate for example, we have 23 democrats, a significant majority of those who are running in the next election. looking at the results of the last election, and i think they are have a growing awareness that what they did the last two years, was rebuffed by the american people. let's look at what went on the last two years. we added $3 trillion to the deficit, and lost three million jobs. we took government spending from 20% of gross domestic product, gdp, up to 25% of gdp.

look, what we've been doing doesn't work. and i think the message from the american people is clear -- don't do that any more. we're going to give the president an opportunity to reduce our annual deficit, which is completely out of control. and i hope, david, i read a "washington post" editorial this morning, i was disappointed in the president's unwillingness to address our long-term unfunded liabilities. >> that's very interesting. because i've also detected a great deal of caution on the part of republicans who campaigned on the idea of spending cuts. and yet, when it comes to a program like social security, it was speaker boehner who told his group this week, we need to spend more time defining the problem before we get in the boat with president here and say we've got to make long-term changes. is that your view? >> we have two problems, our annual deficit, completely out of control. we're going to send the president a lot less. we're going to allow him to sign on to a lot less spending than he recommended the other night and than he's likely to send us

in the budget. and with the regard to the long-term unfunded liabilities, you cannot do that on a partisan basis. president bush tried to do it in 2005. and social security will go into deficit. it will run a $45 billion deficit this year. as far as as the eye can see. look, entitlement reform can only be done on a bipartisan basis. it's happened before. reagan and tip o'neill fixed social security in '83. reagan and the democratic house did tax reform in '86. >> if the president were to say, leader mcconnell. if you're prepared to deal with some revenue increases, we can also deal with some benefit cuts, let's take a balanced approach to social security. you could support that? >> look, you know, you've tried this before. i'm not going to negotiate the deal with david gregory. i'd be happy to negotiate -- >> i keep hoping you'll change your mind. >> i'll be happy to negotiate the deal and speaker boehner,

too, with the president and others. we have to go together. the american people are asking us to tackle these problems. i think the president needs to be more bold. we're prepared -- i've got a lot of new members and speaker boehner does as well, who came here to tackle this big problem. >> are you saying that democrats tackle entitlements and the republicans will meet you halfway. >> we know social security is in trouble. we know medicare is on an unsustained path, they took half a trillion dollars out of it fund this health care program they enacted. we need to get serious about this. >> is the prospect of a government shutdown over any potential fight over spending, is that an option in your mind? is that a viable opportunity? >> we have two opportunities coming up. we have the continuing resolution on march 4th. and the president has asked us to raise the debt ceiling. so we have two opportunities

here to do something important for this country on the issue of spending and debt. we ought not to lose that opportunity. the president ought to work with us on both of those occasions to address this important issue. >> is government shutdown a viable alternative in your mind? >> as i said, we have two opportunities, opportunities. both the continuing resolution, and the debt ceiling. to try to accomplish something on a bipartisan basis on both our short-term debt and our long-term unfunded liabilities. >> you won't take shutdown off the table if it comes to that. >> we have two opportunities to do something important for the country on spending and debt. we ought not to miss this opportunity. the president a ought to step up to the plate with us and tackle it together. >> all right. wish we had more time. senator mcconnell, leader mcconnell, thank you very much as always. up next, what does the revolt in egypt mean for u.s. foreign policy. and what will it mean for the rest of the region. we'll talk to former u.s. ambassador to israel.

and "new york times" columnist tom friedman. plus, what is the political fallout of a you will of this? and the other big political news, the president's state of the union and the debates ahead with republicans over spending. our roundtable weighs in, mike murphy, harold ford, chuck todd and caddy kim. "meet the press" is brought to you by the new audi a8. ♪ >> woman: good night, gluttony-- a farewell long awaited. good night, expected. >> ( yawning ) >> good night, outdated. >> ( click ) >> ( whimpers ) >> good night, fluffy. and good night, stuffy. >> ( clinking ) >> ( chewing ) >> good night, old luxury and all of your wares.

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special report on egypt in revolt, with analysis by our ambassador to egypt. plus our roundtable on some of the other big p iticalwsne of wsthe week. up next right after this commercial.

we're back and going to get our political roundtable in just a minute. first some additional perspective on the situation in egypt. martin indisc the former u.s. ambassador to israel under president clinton and mid east negotiator. martin, good to have you here. here's the map of the flash points here. it begins with tunisia, egypt on tuesday. why is this so important, why is this such a big story? >> you can see on the map, david, egypt is at the epicenter. but not just geostrategically

central, it's the largest militarily most powerful by far the most influential country. where egypt goes will have a tsunami effect. it may start in yemen but the if it end up in egypt this is very profound. because american interests are so tied up with egypt, what happens there will have a profound effect. >> we talked to secretary clinton. you heard her remarks. history matters. you go back to 1979 and what was happening on streets of tehran, the protests, the khomeni led revolution and the support of the shah of iran. you remember these scenes. why is that an example that the administration is thinking a lot about today? >> because iran was our strategic pillar in the persian gulf. egypt is our strategic pillar in the heart land of the middle east.

demonstrations that that overthrew the shah and demonstrations here that are in the process of overtloung president mubarak have a resonance. we don't want to be on the wrong side of history like we were with the shah. we have to walk a very fine line because some of our interests are tied up with this leadership in egypt. >> we talk about how viral this has been, how quickly this is moving. this is real-time view of all of the egypt related tweets. if we're searching for cairo or mubarak or protests, this is a conversation that's goings on real-time. administration has to catch up. in the foreign policy circles you talk about contagion. >> you're witnessing here 21st century revolution. mubarak was focused on suppressing the secular center because that's what he feared the most and the muslim brotherhood was able to organize and have an infrastructure. these guys didn't have anything

until tweeter and facebook came along and this has changed the whole nature of communication and organization and made it now impossible for autocratic leaders in the arab world to suppress the views of their people. >> we talked about hosni mubarak as we look at the region. you look at the biography. he comes in '81 after the assassination of sadat. he's survived six assassination attempts. are his days running out? >> he's 80 years old. he's sick and an old man. the compact with his people has been broken. kit not be put together again. unfortunately because he's been a good friend of the united states, but he did not open his political space. he did not allow for the people to express themselves and now he's reaping the consequences and basically nothing that he or we can do about its. >> does this put the pause

button on arab-israeli peace for now? >> i think so. this is such a big deal that could it have profound consequences for the peace treaty and the whole process of reconciliation between israel taken raabs if this results in radical regime taking over in egypt. the regime is critically important. you can see them in the streets maintain order but embracing the demonstrations. there's a head of the military who has been put in place as vice president. they are the ones who have to hold the ring now, tell mubarak to go and announce that there will be presidential elections within i think six months. omar suleiman, the vice president now will not stand but the military will oversee a process of democratic evolution. >> martin, thank you so much. visit our website for an exclusive op ed by martin. it's on our website. martin, thank you. i also had the opportunity to

speak to "new york times" columnist tom friedman. i began by asking him how we go to this moment? >> we got to this moment, basically, because our concern about having a stable egypt first and foremost to preserve the peace treaty with israel and later after 9/11 to be a partner in the war on terrorism. basically let us give mubarak a pass on democratization. for the first 15 years of his rule egypt stagnated. i visited 12 years ago i remember writing mubarak had more mummies in his cabinet than king tut. then he slowly under our pressure and pressure ever globalization started to open up and in the last few years actually appointed a lot of reformers to his cabinet who produced a real opening, 6%

growth, i believe, last year. egypt is in such a hole economically, david, that it needs to grow at china-india rates if it's going to even remotely have chance to keep up with this population. >> is there any way mubarak can stay? >> i don't want to make any predictions. it will be determined by the egyptian people. to me i think what the united states should be focusing on are three things. one, emphasizing that we hope whatever transition there is peaceful. two, that we hope that it will be built around consensual politics, not another dictatorship and three, whatever regime, whatever government emerges, whether the muslim brotherhood or not, it's a government that's dedicated to ushering egypt into the 21st century. egypt and really most of the arab world has been on vacation from history for the last 50 years thanks largely to oil. egypt didn't have oil hit the peace treaty with israel.

what peace with israel was to egypt oil is to saudi arabia. it got egypt all of this aid. i want allowed the regime to move very slowly on democratization. now it has to play rapid catch up. the really sad thing is, david, is that, you know, the first rule of politics is make big decisions when you have strength and leverage on your side. mubarak has had three decades, basically, to make the big decision of making egypt, promoting egypt in a transition to democratization. he did not use this opportunity all these years and now he's got to make a big decision. egypt's got to make a decision not from a position of strength but at least from the government's point of view from a real position of weakness. you never make good decisions, you never make far sighted decisions from a position of weakness. so it's hard to see something

positive ever coming out of the mubarak-egyptian relationship again. i would add that israel today, though, i think israel should really reflect what's going on in egypt. i want does not want to be the mubarak of the peace process. israel has never been stronger militarily or economically. this is exactly the time it should be looking to forge and close a peace deal with the palestinians, not because it will change the arab world but because it will be a huge opportunity and stabilizer for that relationship. >> tom, everything from the peace process, concerns the u.s. has about obviously our oil interests there, the influence of iran and, of course, islamic extremism, islamic fundamentalism and terrorism. what are the ripple effects. what comes next in terms much those problems? >> think for all of us analysts inside, outside, the most dangerous thing you can do in a situation like this is confuse your hopes with your analysis.

i know what my hopes are. my hopes are we'll see a transition in egypt that will allow the emergence of a muslim moderate progressive center there, precisely what mubarak never built. but my analysis and my fear, especially looking at the news, the looting today and whatnot is that when you open the lid on a society like this, where the government has done nothing basically to build civil society for the last 20 years, what comes out is anger, rage. and makes the building of a kind of a modern progressive center that much more difficult. now the implications are enormous. one of the big questions is the muslim brotherhood in egypt, a huge powerful movement. will they go for one of three strategies? one is to emulate iran.

the other is hamas. or the option we hope they choose is the turkey model, be a partner in a consensual rebuilding. egypt and basically try to build their strength on a democratic. foundation. >> how does president obama walk this line? supporting a vital u.s. ally in mubarak, siding with the egyptian people? >> three principles. we support nonviolence. we support consensual politics and we support any egyptian government and outcome that will be on the side of ushering egyptians into the 21st century, enabling and empowering them to do so. ultimately that's what they have been so frustrated about and that's what we have to be on the side of. >> you often said you're not surprised, you haven't been surprised by the middle east in some time. did this surprise me? >> it surprises me in the immediate but not in the abstract. david, there's a joke that went around egypt for many years about mubarak that he was on his death bed and egyptian delegation came to see him of the people, the nurse came in

and said mr. president, the people are here to say good-bye and mubarak said oh, really where are they going? so egyptians have been telling this joke for a long time. it isn't funny any more. >> tom friedman, thank you very much. >> pleasure. >> now the rest of our roundtable here with us this morning. washington correspondent for the bbc, katty kay, chief white house correspondent, chuck todd. republican strategist, mike fur if i and former congressman from tennessee, harold ford. what a story. chuck todd, you have been reporting from the white house on all this. i want to go back to this visual. this is tweet deck again bhapt does it show? it shows in real-time the activity, what martin indyk called the 21st century revolution under way. look how fast that screen is moving. it's hard for the president himself to keep up. >> they were doing what we were doing. they were monitoring feeds. they got egyptian television

into the white house. they were sitting there watching al jazeera. they didn't have a lot of inside information really until midday on friday and that's when they made this decision that the president was going to have to say something publicly, he was going tell mubarak exactly what he was going to say. much longer conversation that 30 minute conversation. it seems to me it only takes him 3 minutes to say turn down the internet. later we'll learn what was said. >> katty kay, do you sense that the administration is or isn't satisfied that mubarak is doing what he has to do to stay in power? >> they are not satisfied. the conversation that president obama had with president mubarak on friday has been described as a tough conversation. it seems that the americans hatch made it clear to the egyptian government that the tianemen square option, taking the military out and effectively shooting these protesters in order to stop the demonstrations is not an option that's acceptable to america. that leaves president mubarak with setting up a government

that's acceptable to protesters. so far the people he's chosen have not satisfied the people on the streets. there's no indication that what mubarak has done up until now constitutes anything like enough reform for egypt. >> gentlemen, what's the strategy here? >> very difficult. the strategy is the plan for the future because we have much less influence on this present situation than we want to. even if mubarak survives, most of the arab autocrats are going to have to move towards the street for political reason which means nor anti-american and anti-israel. this is the beginning of a process that can spread through the region. the culmination of tension we had between american values and american interests. we don't want 1972 again where israel is surrounded by hostile arab nation. >> it's so important, congressman ford because martin indyk made the point about a pause in the peace process here. is the future of the peace treaty between egypt and israel

in doubt and all the ramifications as well as the potential islamist flavor of any new government in egypt. these are the huge factors here. >> as martin said it depends on the next era, next generation of leadership. there's a risk and martin made the point that we have to be on the right side but there's a risk in moving too fast. i thought hillary clinton handled about it as well as she could this morning. one of the fascinating things about these moments and this protest is that in the past in the middle east we've seen protests but most of the protests have been organized and fueled by resentments to the west. the muslim brotherhood has tried to take advantage of some of this. these are really local conditions driving this as we saw even in tunisia. you had poverty, issues of access, young professionals, middle class educated people complaining bitterly about a lack of opportunity. so as you look at not just the content of the protests, but the character of the protests, it's

different, it's new and frankly i think it's confusing the white house even more. >> this is a brand new foreign policy crisis for this administration. there's no aspect of this that was inherited here. this is a big test forresident obama. >> well, it is. it's amazing that state of the union was five days ago. it just feels like two months ago at this point. i want to pick up on a quick point there. i was talk took some folks close to the israeli government. they in one hand are relieved that these protests are not western focused. that it isn't about the united states. only sense of relief in this. they are panicked because let's remember the egyptian army has done a pretty good job of keeping arms oust gaza and what happens now. that's the immediate fear of how are the israelis going react. >> one thing i would say is what's happening and what we're seeing has given the lie to the myth that the egyptian have sold and the americans have bought for the last 30 years the choice

in the middle east and choice in egypt is between authoritarianism. you could have -- the muslim brotherhood brought into a government where there is a transfer of power actually built into the system. >> i spoke to a top former diplomat who said, it's not this person's view that islamic beliefs in terms of government will take hold in egypt like they might have 30 years ago or more than that in iran. >> there's secular energy there and turkey is a model. on the other hand as tom friedman pointed out there's not a civil society tradition. what's interesting is tonight when the army will have to step up to be a force for security. stop that looting, that disintegration of law and order. i think we'll go into, i believe mubarak will fall and the army will take control. then we either go into a model like the russian revolution and

rougher forces will prevail. that's a disaster. >> this is a group of global citizens who understand that board better than some sitting at this table and even some who fashioned foreign policy for america in the '70s and '80s and '90s. this is a 21st revolution that a lot of the old rules we apply, not that it's bad analysis, maybe dated may not neatly apply. that doesn't mean that everything that tom has said is not true. this thing is moving so quickly -- >> let me get a break in here. we'll take a break and come back with robertson table. i want to talk about some of the other political news in washington that will dominate the debates ahead with republicans and the state of the union. more with our political roundtable after this. at northern trust, we understand... that while you may come from the same family... you know, son, you should take up something more strenuous. you have different needs and desires. - i'm reading a book. - what's a book?

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we're back with our roundtable. before we were talk about the moist and talk about obama and the state of the union. chuck todd this is how the "new york times" skribtd on wednesday. the president's spleechting slightly more than an hour lacked the loft of the inspirational address he gave in tucson. it elevated his presidency above the gamesmanship. explain that term we're seeing. >> this is the beginning of the re-elect. let's not pretend it's anything but. everybody in senior positions, all of these people are much more campaign experienced. but let's see. we'll find out if the state of the union was effective in about three wheex teeks when the budg rolled out. they want to do some things that break up a cabinet agency or two, merge some things that will look to the american public and that will be at the point where we'll see if this was an

effective state of the union. >> mike murphy, i spent time with president obama this week and with speaker boehner. what i detected there's a high level of caution about getting into the boat of taking on the big entitlements alone. you saw what happened with health care, the republicans used it against them. are we going see washington get serious? >> i hope we do because the stakes are higher than ever. i don't want to learn chinese in ten years. here's the problem. the republicans, i think, are ready to jump, a lot of them into the very risky and dangerous world of taking on entitlements. will the white house jump in with them? some would say for the good of the country we taught. mitch mcconnell, very clear, open for business. the people planning the re-elect. they want to run against the republican parties. and bring out all the scary tactics which will be effective. we have a window here for washington to jump off the cliff

together politically. i hope the president takes up the republican offer. >> harold ford look at the president's job approval. an 11-point switch. his approval now over his disapproval. the question is, the state of the union, the emphasis on investment on additional spending to get that balance right to innovate the economy can he retain independent support? >> he can. i think a big part of that number has to do with the president forging or creating an environment for democrats and republicans that work together in a lot of ways alienating the far right and far left. i hope there's courage around entitlements. there's some encouragement from what mitch mcconnell said this has to be bipartisan. if he's willing to deliver some of his members the president should walk to the middle and

get something done with them. again the number one issue for voters will be jobs. if that number comes down it will be a greater likelihood and greater comfort level with democrats and republicans working to reform entitlements in a way that cause some wealthy americans to receive fewer benefits and americans like me that say we may not see our benefits until late 60s or early 70s. >> we look at the numbers and since the unemployment rate information began to get culled back together in 1948 no president won re-election with a high unemployment rate on election day. you got to see where that number is. >> the chances of that number being 7 policy 8% in 2012, i don't think any democrat in town will tell you it will be down that low by the time the president is up for re-election. t advantage the president has in that respect is that the republican party still doesn't have a viable leader to oppose him. he's up against a republican party that is weak and i think

he's framed in the state of the union address the need for america to invest in things like innovation and education because we're at this critical moment vis-a-vis china. if he can do something on entitlements alongside with republicans he can get away with independent vote towers talk about education investment. the thing he did in that state of the union address set up tent in the republicans backyard. using words like free enterprise. that's the kind of music to independent ears. >> chuck, be practical here. what gets 0 done this year. >> a little bit of reinventing government. you'll see a couple of cabinet agencieses merge agencies merged. this yeen -- entitlement thing, be republicans have lost the jobs message and i don't understand how they let that happen. they talk about spending cuts, the debt, things that do matter

to their base. they have to be careful here. there's not an obvious jobs plan coming out. >> his jobs rhetoric is great. the reason he's in political jeopardy his job results are not great. that will be the battle for the presidency. >> this debate over what role government plays -- we'll take another quick break and come back with some final thought and check in with mr. murphy on how the gop field is taking shape for 2012. ways to power flight. ♪ and harness our technology for new energy solutions. [ female announcer ] around the globe, the people of boeing are working together, to build a better tomorrow. that's why we're here. ♪ that's why we're here. logistics was once the dominion of a very few. the largest and most powerful organizations. logistics was our secret weapon.

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primary calendar. >> who is on the other conservative track. >> that's a little unclear, who will take that mantle. jim demint is still floating himself. sarah palin hanging around. all this chatter about romney skipping iowa. that's a swing state. you can't stipulate states. he can figure out how to tie down expectations. this idea of skipping states i think is political -- >> how do you look to republicans in congress to try to set up their nominee? >> they will tribute i think the real action will be in the state level. these governors who are attacking pension liabilities, republican governors attacking big budget deficits are going advantage themselves and in the last few days who would have thought a week ago a republican would have shown knowledge about middle east beyond afghanistan and iraq. so mature, adult like candidates

who are focused on real issues in their states and can show some agility and smart toughness have moved to the front. romney is stronger today than and he was week ago because he's more of an adult. >> we'll leave it there. thanks to all you. a lot of ground cover. that's all for today. we'll be back next week and marking 100th anniversary of president reagan's bitter. what does the reagan legacy mean. former james baker and reagan speech writer peggy noonan will be our guests. that is all for us today. if it's sunday it's "meet the press." for three hours a week, i'm a coach.

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