ooh, 3-d! instead of earning bupkus, your savings could be earning three times the national average! three times more. go online to capitalone.com. what's in your wallet? what's this do? [ beeping ] [captioning made possible by nbc universal] chris: going for the kill. this week's shutdown fight is just the beginning. the young republican turks want to fight for the death. they just don't want cuts in programs like medicare, the environment, but the end of them. it isn't on reform, it's about repeal. tea and sympathy. those zell ots in congress want revolution but mitt, paul lenty

and barber would settle just for the job. will they have to campaign on a platform written by the zervings ealots? he has poll numbers rising. can the tabloid prince of manhattan sell in church country. welcome. with us today. cnn's gloria borger, politico's john harris, the "washington post"'s michael gerson and the "atlanta journal constitution"'s cynthia tucker. the tea partyers seem to be running congress. when they ron won last year, the republican battles cry was big spending but they forced john boehner to go to the mat over decades old concerns like planned parent hoot. the congress propose add budget

plan for next year that would blow up medicare and medicaid and drastically cut all spending excepts for defense. its author, paul ryan, said bold action is worth the risk. >> if that means we're giving our political adverseries weapons, shame on them. chris: it could define the battlefield in 201. >> both republicans and democrats are now joined on anied lolling cal confrontation that will help frame the 2012 presidential election. >> the 2012 budget is going to be the big battle. with paul ryan throwing down the gaughan let. >> what president obama probably thinks is probably what we all think which is what paul ryan did this week starts a national conversation/debate that runs all the way through the 2012 election.

kevin: that is all talk about shutting down the government, and ryan's budgets, going for the kill. is this smart for 2012? >> for republicans? probably not. we have to give paul ryan an awful lot of credit because yes, it does define the conversation for 2012 but the last time i checked, when paul ryan proposed something like this, he got about 10% of his republican caucus to go along with him. let's see how popular. chris: is he the canary in the mine? >> he might be. let's see how popular it is among republicans and let's see what barack obama does. obviously mow the republicans can say, ok, we have a budget on the table, or at least paul ryan does, what do you believe? it will be about 2012. chris: 2/3 of the tea party people don't like that word compromise. >> the tea party was in part a

spasm not just against spending but against the washington establishment. what they're seeing is something like washington business as usual. that's the only way legislation gets passed. this is an lergic reaction to it. chris: according to our polling, the actually people who show up to caucuses like in iowa, they have that in their mindsets. will that keep steering these guys to be truck hasn't, like no deal? >> it will force them to rhetorically express sympathy and at the same time looks for ways to make a compromise. chris: president obama is playing electric like debonair, whistling past the graveyard. herself looking like the come -- compromising. is that because of the polling and because of the sur banyan

identities want him to be? >> two reasons. one is the president starts out as a general election candidate. any of the republican presidential contenders have to play hard to the right to satisfy tea party afraids, social conservatives. the president doesn't have to play that game. he can certainly count on the support of the african-american base, probably count on latino support, probably count on young voters' support. independents want come -- comp mice. independents can't compromise. they want a shift in tone in washington. they want him to go back to being the guy who said i'm above the partisan fray. that's why he campaigns sometimes as if he's not even a democrat. he says republicans say certain things, democrats say certain things. he's the head of the democratic party.

chris: president obama's smart politics is go to the center. you've worked for president bush as a speech writer. what do you think this fits together? you have tea party people behind -- they said they have a blow torch behind the back of john boehner forcing him off to the cliff. and you and i know regular republicans who get elected year after year tend to be compromisers. >> i agree that barack obama has played this very well. i think he has a terrible budget record. he went into this negotiations taking the initial republican stand, 33 billion in cuts. that cut the legs out from under the republicans, made him look like the moderator but fed that division between the two participates to have republican party. one part the pressure freshmen but also leaders like pence and

michelle bachman, who want to establish themselves as rebel leaders and set them against every committee chairman who thought this was a pretty good deal, even at the beginning of the debate. >> here's the thing that john boehner understands that a lot of his new members don't. you can't overinterpret your mandate when you're elected. they were elected to get things done, not because people were in love with republicans, not because people were in love with the notion of shutting down government to make a political point. chris: you sure? don't you think a lot of tea partyers will get re-elected because they beat more republican republicans? they're not going to lose next year, are they? >> they're not if you're going to go overboard. independent voters, senior voters, very very important. chris: the closer you get to being a senior, the more you realize that getting your check

and having your health care taken care of is most important. the ones we agree are thinking about being president some day and they could be elected. romnifment paul endy, -- pawlenty, barbour even. none of them have bought into the tough-cutting approach of paul ryan. they say things like well, he set the right tone or it's a good start. very instant. >> they're doing the rene equivalent of what president obama is doing. for a long time they said there'll be no real leadership in the republican participant until the presidential race starts and one of these individuals emerges as the real leader of the republican parrot, but in fact, this -- party. but that process is being delayed by six months, possibly longer. the congressional debate within the republican party is the defining factor of republican

politics right now. these guys remain sort of side characters, off to the margins and they're going to stay there at least until the end of the year because bunt politics are going to dominant. chris: let's put it to the matthews meter. will the paul ryan big budget cuts be a plus or minus for all republicans running in 2012? eight say it's going do be a big minus. four no. gloria, i believe it's a negative. >> i do. first of all let me say that i think the congressman deserves credit for putting something serious on the table. however, i think it will be very, very easy for democrats to have a knee jerk reaction. chris: what is the mainstream republican thinking on going after programs like medicare? >> the mainstream thinking of someone like ryan is not a political calculation. he is a very earnest man. he honestly believes that 80

million baby boomers now starting to make their way through our entitlement strurp is going to destroy that structure. is choice is not being doing ryan and doing nothing. the choice is doing ryan and something else. i think what he's done is drawn a divide. people who oppose his plan have to have proposals of their own or their not serious. >> one of president obama's responses to rising health care costs was health care reform, which according to the congressional budget offers decreases the budget over a decade. that was serious. paul ryan's response is to throw out the c.b.o. numbers -- chris: and get rid of the obama health care plan. before we breaks donald trump is making noise about running for president. as one can observe by the way he is his own number one fan. >> i'm a very smart guy. went to the best college, had

good marks. chris: funny, he was making the same comments about himself and toying with running for president in the year 2000. all that bragging was made to order for "saturday night live." >> i want to officially declare my run for the presidency of the united states, and look, hey, don't try to fight it. all right? i'm going to get elected. you know why? because i'm a winner. all right? let me show you something i wrote many -- in my school notebook when i was just 14 years old. here's a list of the things i wanted that day. all right? i made a million bucks, ok? i want a super fast jet. did that. sleep with foxy blondes. i think we know how that went. all i got left is this president thing here and then i'm going to build the world's tallest building on mars. chris: and build the tallest

building on mars. trump never did run that year. here he was in a video made that year for a new york roast. the guy in the dress? mayor rudolph giuliani. >> you know, you're really beautiful. a woman that looks like that has to have her own special scent. >> oh, thank you. maybe you could tell me what you think of this scent. >> mmm. i like that. >> this may be the best of all. oh, you dirty boy, you! oh, oh! donald, i thought you were a gentlemen. hmm! >> you can't say i didn't try. chris: when we come back, what's trump's game this time and why to -- do polls have him running strongly? why all this nutty talk about

birth rich. be right back.

chris: welcome back. donald trump's talking about running for president again. in this week's nbc-"wall street journal" poll he's running second only to mitt romney. they include voters with no college, tea party supporters and voters who say they're very conservative. they like trump's background but also may be reacting to his recent birther talk. he's suggesting that before barack obama was born plans were made to make it appear he was made in hawaii so that there could be a birth announcement in the local hayian newspapers in preparation for the day he would run for president. that's the story.

what's he up to? >> donald trump is an american original. for 25 years he has been the most brilliant marketer of his own personality and this is another chapter in that. i assume he's going to run because it's a great amount of publicity. chris: a reality show or is he actually run for in the >> i don't know but why not do it? but the impact of this, the reason we should care, donald trump, michelle bachman, palin if she gets in, they have the effect of freezing the race. it makes it very hard for tim pawlenty, mitt romney to emerge through that process. it freezes the republican race and raises the possibility that a chris christy will get in late or a jeb bush. chris: is he dealing with people who are truly alienated and willing to buy the birther stuff? >> i think one of the most interesting things was the very

conservative part of the poll that showed a party guy like donald trump? come on. but he does have high name recognition in a field where many of the folks don't? how many voters know who tim pawlenty, for example, is. so he does suck up a lot of the oxygen. chris: he's making claims that don't seem real. are they going to be bought as real? >> i think we're in the silly season in the primary right now. as people get more serious later in the process they want electable candidates and there's natural movement. his agenda is a joke and his candidacy is a joke and eventually everybody gets the joke. i don't think he's in the category with palin or bachman who, whatever their faults, are serious people. this is not a serious person in this race. >> the numbers you see in the polls, i think is about people who are anti-establishment. they're thumbing their nose and

saying we can be as outrageous as everybody. i think it's about saying that the establishment, you know what you're awful. we don't like the establishment in the republican party. >> we're seeing that people will believe the worst thing they see on a poll about the president of the united states. i believe people did the same thing with george w. bush. they were willing to believe he knew about 9/11 because they didn't like him. that is a bad thing about american politics. chris: when we come back, scoops hey marcel, watch this!

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chris: welcome back. john, tell me something i don't know. >> a lot of republican elders, including big money people are very nerves about john boehner and the vote over raising the debt ceiling. they're not sure he has his republican caucus under control. this is real. if he doesn't handle that well there's going to be a dump john boehner movement by the republican establishment. chris: when does that come to a head shall >> around the fourth of july. if he doesn't get the bill through and there's a crisis over the debt limit and wide repercussions for the economy, there will be a backlash. >> i'm going to talk about

something bipartisan. by the end of the summer, my prediction is we're going to have free trade agreements. colombia, pan marks south korea. bipartisan vote. chris: free trade still wins? >> yep. >> the minority voters has the republican party challenged because they don't appeal to voters of color so they're going back to a tried and true technique, strict voter i.d. laws. g.o.p. legislatures ramming through laws for strict voter i.d.'s. chris: what do they want for snaer >> strict i.d.'s like driver's licenses. >> we're starting to see people concerned about global health spending cuts in the republican bunt. there are commercials run in christian radio stations

attacking key districts and republicans. we heard talk about the cuts the republicans are proposing would result in the death of 70,000 children. croich 30,000 in malaria. i had that. you don't want to die from that. >> it would be a terrible paradox if the republicans, having criticized death panels was to become death panel. chris: the best work was your old boss did in south africa. hillary clinton is enjoying her all-time highest poll numbers. shouldld she run for president 2016? be right back. ce

chris: welcome back. this week's new nbc-"wall street journal" poll has hillary clinton at an all-time high, 56% in 306s for her. just 22% negative. she's 22% ahead of the president.

is it a smart move for her to move -- run for president in 2016? >> i think she probably thinks it is. hillary rodham was on the cover of "life" magazine in 1969 before she ever met bill clinton. she believes her life has been touched by an arc of destiny and i believe that will push her into the race if there's an opportunity. >> i take her at her word. i think she's exhausted. she's been exhilarated by this job. i think she's going to leave the job of secretary of state. maybe after a couple of years doing things at the clinton foundation she'll decide it's time to get in. chris: should she run? >> no. no. chris: should she run? >> i'm with gloria, i don't think she should. remember that her positive ratings are so high right now is that because she's not seen out

there in the partisan fray. chris: one she's destined to run. two should nots. >> i'd like to see her to run, not just complicating the democratic field. but if the issue is foreign policy, where the president is sometimes seen out of his depth, she has established a tremendous reputation. chris: two say she should run. where are you? >> i think she shouldn't run. i think she may decide she will. i say quit why you're ahead. chris: the men say go, hillary. thanks to gloria borger, john harris, michael gerson, cynthia tucker. thanks for watching.