this morning on "early today" reshuffling the deck. romney and paul vie for the lead in iowa, while a surprise contender jumps into third. conspiracy theory. venezuela's hugo chavez makes an outrageous suggestion about cloak and dagger actions by the united states. and holy nativity. clergymen clash at one of christianity's holiest churches. captions paid for by nbc-universal television hello and good morning. i'm lynn berry. today we begin with campaign

shakeup. with iowa's caucuses just five days away, new poll numbers show ron paul is closing in on front-runner mitt romney and those same numbers show a sudden surge from backpacker rick santorum. nbc's brian mooar joins us from washington with the latest. brian, good morning. >> reporter: good morning, lynn. all this volatility shows social conservatives are still shopping around, and that's good news for mitt romney. five days before iowa, the gop presidential deck has been reshuffled again. and this time mitt romney's on top. >> this is an exciting time. we're going to take back the white house thanks to you guys. thank you. >> reporter: ron paul has slumped to second but picked up a key endorsement from michele bachmann's co-chair. bachmann says her one-time supporter was offered a lot of money to switch sides. he denies it. >> i believe we have the opportunity to elect conservatives. somebody that holds our values

dear. >> reporter: rick santorum has suddenly vaulted into third place. >> how many times do you hear this as a conservative. don't try to impose your morality on us. >> reporter: newt gingrich is now on a slide, and he's lowering expectations. >> what do you have to do here in iowa? >> you have to be in the top three or four. >> you have to win either iowa or new hampshire, don't you? >> you have to win south carolina. >> reporter: the whiplash changes shows that iowa's social conservatives are still looking for the one. and the social conservatives are threatening to cancel each other out, but lynn, a lot can happen in a couple of days. >> brian mooar for us in washington, thank you. the united states had a strong response wednesday to a second threat from iran to disrupt the world's oil supply, that is, if the west pursues actions against tehran over its nuclear program. an iranian admiral boasted on state television that closing down the only sea outlet for crucial oil fields in and around

the persian gulf would be, quote, very easy for his country's naval forces. the baron-based u.s. fifth fleet said in a mistakable e-mail on wednesday that it would not allow any threat to traffic in the strait of hormuz saying, quote, any disruption will not be tolerated. even with outside monitors on the ground in syria, reports of deadly new violence continues to emerge. amateur video shows what appears to be arab league monitors wearing orange vests touring the central city of homs where some of the strongest demonstrations against president bashar al assad have been taking place. at times those monitors were forced to take shelter as gunfire could be heard in the distance. activists claim government troops open fire on unarmed protesters on wednesday killing six, bringing the death toll to 39 in just two days since the

monitors arrived. yesterday more than 700 detainees were freed after a human rights group accused the government of hiding the prisoners from those monitors. now here's a look at some other stories making news "early today" in america. north dakota firefighters went to the edge of an icy river to make a life-saving grab. they rescued a black labrador after it slid past its owner's electric fence right into the freezing water. you'll be happy to hear the dog is in good condition. a texas man didn't get away with much of anything during a recent robbery attempt. surveillance cameras caught the thief stealing an empty cash register from a fast food restaurant. police later found the suspect and arrested him on theft charges. at various locations around the country, nursing mothers held what they called nurse-ins at target stores. it all started last month when a nursing mother in texas said she was treated rudely by

confrontational target employees who removed her to a fitting room. she since started a facebook page to launch a nationwide demonstration against restrictive corporate breastfeeding policies. and finally, 40-degree weather didn't stop one group of friends from having a good time on a new york lake. they braved frigid continues to feed what they call their water skiing addiction. understatement there. now for a look at the national and regional weather, here's nbc's meteorologist bill karins. hello to you, bill. >> usually you are ice fishing. >> good point. good point. >> they are not the only ones. in the west i have been looking at the comparisons between this winter and last winter, with the snow pack in the sierra and cascades, last year was blockbuster with a lot of snow. we are really struggling. the ski resorts are struggling to keep up with the man made snow. we have not gotten any natural snow, especially in california in a while. the pacific northwest, things are about to change. we are getting some decent snows

in areas like idaho. temperatures are pretty mild out there this morning, no issues temperaturewise, pretty good-sized storm that blew through late yesterday and overnight up through the pacific northwest. we are in a fast weather pattern. one storm a day is what we are averaging. thankfully today we are getting a break during the daylight hours. we'll have another storm moving onshore later tonight, but the winds did howl last night. we probably still have issues with the minor flooding, too, from the inch of rain that fell in a few spots. this storm is gone. the next one is already coming up here on the edge of the map. all the whites in the clouds, a lot of moisture with this one. the heaviest rainfall is focused mostly in the state of oregon. as of now, as i mentioned, during the morning and daylight hours we'll get a break with the heavier rain moving ashore through the second half of the day into the overnight period. we have showers out there in the higher elevations but that's it. the computers pinpoint the possibility of two to three inches of rain right along the coastal sections in the mountains where we'll have heavier snow. that's a look at y for the next

to six days. all the wet weather will be in the northwest. so we are looking at a lot of rain, just one storm after another in the northwest. >> all right, bill, thanks so much. euro jitters return. gold falls again. and a big bungle by "the new york times." your early morning business headlines are straight ahead. plus, what's causing rumors about trouble in paradise for one of showbiz's biggest couples? the heat get a scare. a pair of unbeatens fall in college basketball. and a picture worth a thousand laughs. you're watching "early today."

good morning. welcome back to "early today." i'm lynn barry. here are your top headlines this

morning. north korea has officially declared kim jong-un the country's new supreme leader. the announcement came during the memorial for his late father, kim jong-il, which like his funeral the day before brought thousands into the streets. hugo chavez is suggesting the u.s. may somehow be responsible for latin american leaders developing cancer. chavez's comments followed news that argentina's president has a treatable form of thyroid cancer. chavez had a tumor removed from his pelvis in june. a turkish news agency says the country's air force has killed 20 in raids against suspected kurdish rebels on the country's border with iraq. another news agency quotes villagers there, however, as saying the dead are actually smugglers. the turkish military mistook for kurdish rebels. and oh how times have changed. the spanish royal family is publishing its salaries online.

king juan carlos earned $382,000 this year plus expenses. his son, prince philippe earned half that. and peace in bethlehem? not quite. dozens of monks brawled turning brooms into weapons at jesus's tradition at the site of his birth. after armenia clergy accused them of encroaching on their part of the church during the annual cleaning. here's an early look at wall street kicking off the day. the dow opens at 12,151 after falling 139 points. the s&p fell 15 points. the nasdaq dropped 35. taking a look at overseas trading this morning, in tokyo, the nikkei was down 24 points, while in hong kong the hang seng lost 120. new signs of trouble in europe drove stocks here lower. and u.s. treasuries were higher on wednesday. the s&p 500 fell after five straight days of gains backing into negative territory for the

year. the downward spike was accentuated by extremely low volume. alcoa and caterpillar led the dow lower. in europe data showed banks were hording cash recently injected by the european central bank rather than lending it out as hoped, a sign those banks may be in worse shape than previously thought. euro worries hit bank stocks hard here with bank of america and regions financial leading lower. as stocks lost investors seeking safety drove bond prices higher. the u.s. ten-year treasury yield fell below 10%. oil fell almost $2 under $100 a barrel on saudi promises to offset any losses from a threatened iranian blockade. gold fell 2%, closing at the

lowest level in more than five months. elsewhere, the national science foundation awarded lockheed martin a $2 billion contract to maintain support infrastructure for antarctic research. yesterday "the new york times" thought it sent an e-mail to a few hundred subscribers who recently canceled offering the paper at half price for 16 weeks. well, instead, the offer went to 8.6 million addresses. initially "the times" honored the discount but stopped by early afternoon. the paper won't say how much the e-mail gaffe will cost the company. wouldn't want to be the guy that sent that e-mail. coming up, last-minute college football bowl drama. and late nba thrills between the bobcats and the heat. plus, in college hoop action, michigan state looks to knock off unbeaten indiana. your early morning sports headlines are straight ahead. a shot of cold air moved into new england. much of the country, a nice warm up is ahead towards new year's

eve. your forecast is coming up. you're watching "early today."

good morning. if you're just waking up, this is "early today." in sports, last night's schedule featured two top 20 match-ups on the college hardwood. here's nbc's mario solis with a look at all your sports headlines.

>> hey there, good morning. yesterday there were six unbeaten teams in college basketball. now there are four. let's start in kentucky. number three, louisville, had no answer for georgetown's starks, scoring 16 of his 20 in the second half. hoyas with the lead in the final minute with the tip-in. number 12 georgetown knocks off louisville, 71-68. number 15 indiana also lost. 17th ranked michigan state with the honors. keith appling scores 25 to rally the spartans in the second. brandon woods with the finishing touches. michigan state runs all over indiana, 80-65. to the nba, the heat got a scare from the bobcats. charlotte down two with 20 seconds to play. forget going for the tie. gerald henderson drills a three for the lead. the bobcats up one with 12 seconds left. that's enough time for dwyane wade to work his magic, cashes in the bank shot for the win. heat escape with a 96-95 win. college football. cal and number 22 texas in the

holiday bowl. david ash to marquise goodwin. the longhorns take the lead to win, 21-10. wild finish to military bowl. air force down seven with under a minute to play when jefferson finds zach for a 33-yard touchdown. they just need the extra point for a tie. they try the fake, it backfires. the ball is fumbled and rolls out of bounds. the falcons crash and burn. toledo holds on to win, 42-41. finally, football players are referred to as some of the toughest athletes in the world but one player met his match at the happiest place on earth. oregon ducks michael james with the look of terror on space mountain at disneyland. let's hope he's not as scared of the wisconsin badgers next week in the rose bowl. that's a look at sports on "early today." i'm mario solis. who had the monster concert tour of the year? and which star is literally gnashing her teeth? your early morning entertainment headlines are straight ahead. plus, remember the letter

carrier motto about neither sleet nor rain, et cetera? we'll introduce you to the person who should be the postal service's new poster girl. you're watching "early today."

welcome back to "early today" on this thursday morning. rain continues to greet us each and every day in the pacific northwest. this is a series of storms, one big one went through last night with gusty winds. now we are waiting for the next

one later on today. you may get dry weather during the morning and daylight hours, but then the rain should move back in, especially heavy in oregon state. that is fine in california, but temperatures dip a little bit with another shot of rain on friday in the northwest. good news, a dry weekend is on the way. if you are watching us on nbc 11 in california's bay area, the bay area has painting, sculpt e sculpture, photographs and more taking place at juried annual 2012. that's your pacific event of the day. thanks so much. here's an early look at this morning's headlines in entertainment. megan fox has been grinding her teeth and has nothing to do with michael bay, the "transformers" director who fired her. the hollywood reporter says fox is wearing a sports mouth guard because her tattoo removal session to laser off marlin monroe are incredibly painful. i hate when that happens. apparently she's clenching her jaw so hard she's endangering her teeth.

>> u2rks's tour was the top grossing tour taking in $156 million. country princess taylor swift tour was a distant second with $97 million. that one you were able to make, i bet. >> a couple times. >> katy perry photographed in hawaii without her russell brand wedding ring is fueling rumors of some trouble. "us weekly" quotes a source saying a mega fight, not just a fight, a mega fight, between the two led the two to spend holidays apart with brand heading to england. e! news reports bradley cooper is involved with zoe saldana. >> of "revenge." >> her spokesperson dismissed rumors last month but a source told the website that the two are, quote, totally dating.

this happens off camera when everybody else at home knows who she is. we apologize. well, this comes to us from knsw in wichita, kansas, where in nearby kendall a severe winter storm saw one postal worker saddling up just to get to work. a bliss saturday rocked becky's town last week burying roads and residents under heavy know, but that didn't stop the postmaster from living up to the mail carrier motto inspired by the pony express. she rode her horse through two miles of whiteout conditions just so the little town of 60 or so people could get their mail. >> you want me saddling up? >> when you say you can't cross the brooklyn bridge through six feet of snow, i'll be saying -- remember that story? >> as you call in sick. i'm lynn berry and this is "early today," just your first stop of the day today on your nbc station.

at a ski resort in germany, you'll be praying for more than just good powder. a church made entirely of ice and snow was erected at the resort, commemorating a church built in a similar way 100 years ago in the same town. the more than 85-foot structure has a tower over 62 feet high and will be used for worship, cultural events and as a tourist attraction. in spain it looks like a bake-off but it's war. for more than two centuries in an april fool's-like tradition, spain and lot lot latin america

have been holding a mock war, throwing flour and eggs at each other in front of city hall. dressed in military and old-fashioned clothes, they also parade around imposing random fines on local businesses but all the money goes to charity. and finally, in the uk the crowd goes wild for crash landings. the seventh annual british car-jumping championship took place yesterday. drivers tried to fly over a row of old clunkers and land safely on the other side. not that that's happened all that often. actually spectators cheered louder when the cars didn't quite make the landing. they preferred action to accuracy, i suppose. that's why you go and watch clunkers pound into one another. >> i've always wanted to do a demolition derby. >> have you? >> i've always wanted to get an old station wagon and just -- >> i've always wanted to do the monster truck, bill, so maybe we have some new year's resolutions. we'll see. time for an early look at stories we'll follow throughout the day here on nbc. samoa is about to lose an entire

day as it moves across the international date line into a new time zone. at midnight samoa and neighboring island of tokelau will jump from thursday to saturday so they can be on the same schedule as trading partners in australia, new zealand and parts of asia. in new york, they'll test confetti in times square for saturday night's big countdown to the new year with the help of robert de niro, jessica biel and other big names. and happy birthday to tv comedy legend mary tyler moore. she turns 75 today. all day long you can stay on top of the very latest developments in those stories and others as they break on msnbc. tonight be sure to watch brian williams with "nbc nightly news." finally, here's a look at what's coming up later this morning on the "today" show. with less than a week before the iowa caucuses, presidential candidates newt gingrich and rick santorum speak out. and from a laughing baby to rebecca black. the biggest internet sensations of the year are live in studio.

now keep it on this channel for continuing local news, weather, sports and more. i'm lynn berry. thanks for watching "early today." just your first stop of the day today on your nbc station. have a good one.