good morning to you. i'm kris sanchez. coming up, it's game day in the bay. the 49ers take on the giants this afternoon. they will host them coming up in just a bit. why jim harbaugh feels very good about their chances. also, the much-needed rain came with a lot of storm damage. we'll show you where all of this happened. plus a big surprise in south carolina as newt gingrich wins with the help of some voters not usually on his side. political analysis from the gop race coming up. this is "today in the bay."

>> good morning to you, looking live at the city by the bay. camera bouncing around a little bit and the niners probably hoping that the breezy, windy conditions that will happen during gametime will propel them in the right direction. thanks so much for joining us. i'm kris sanchez. today is the big day. we want to know what the forecast is here. rob is here with that. >> saw a sneak preview. yesterday morning a different story. we had flooding out in candlestick park, parking lot looking like a lake yesterday because of heavy rain. now, this morning things have dried out. they pumped out the parking lot there. you can see we do have light rain showers offshore, and as moisture continues to spill over the bay area, our chances of seeing rain will be on the increase, but at kickoff we're expecting breezy conditions like now. winds picking up as we head towards the second half.

rain at times today, and that will be a progression from not so much rain right now. a little more, especially for the north bay, as we head towards noon. highs today in the mid-50s. a lot of heavier rain likely hanging out to the northern part of the golden gate and spreading south and that rain will turn heavy at times with wind advisories going up for the peninsula south as we head into this evening. high surf advisory and more sierra snow. talk about all these rapid changes in our weekend forecast coming up in a few minutes. >> and in between squeeze in a little game-watching. >> kickoff for the nbc conference championship game is nine hours away. not many folks predicted the niners would be in this game after the lockout but the san francisco 49ers and new york giants will trade hits at candlestick starting at 3:30. it will be the second time this season that the two teams meet up. the first was november 13th, and it was a game that went down to the wire. 49ers pulled it off in the end, 37-20, after the defense found a way to stop the giants in the

red zone. that win is not the only reason the niners are confident heading into the game that decides whether or not they head to the super bowl. >> damn sure got to be confident, and all these guys are, and if -- and if you're not, you know, both teams expect, you know, coming to this game with a great deal of confidence. >> we're focused but at the same time we're loose. you know, that comes from our head coach, and -- and, you know, he allows us to be football players and to make plays, and that's -- you know, that's what we're doing. we're very focused on what we have to do, and we know what's at stake. >> if the niners win today, they head to the super bowl for the first time since 1994. they would play either the new england patriots or the baltimore ravens. that contest will be decided today as well. the grammy-award winning band train will kick things off before today's game. the san francisco bay group will perform their hit song "save me, san francisco." their album of the same name has

sold more than 1 million copies worldwide. clearly people love the city by the bay. the nfl is beefing up security at candlestick park for today's game. extra security cameras and also undercover officers will be looking for unruly fans. abusive fans will be kicked out of the stadium. officials say they don't want a repeat of last week's playoff game where some saints fans complained about niners fans harassing them, even threatening them, and if you're headed to the stick, public transit might be a very good idea. muni will run several express lines to the stadium from both the north bay and the east bay. from there, fans can hop on the 75x, 77x, 78x or the 79x lines. if you plan on driving, parking lots won't open until 11:30 this morning so plan for that and plan for rain. for more 49ers/giants coverage head to nbcbayarea.com. there you can read about harbaugh's team strategy for today's game and you can see photos of some of the cutest

niner fans in town. to other news, priss are investigating a shooting at a sweet 16 house party in antioch. this happened at a home on wilmont court just after 10:30 last night. sick people were injured, one of them a 13-year-old. all of them were treated at local hospitals where several people remain in intensive care. several others were treated and released. investigators say an argument broke out between 30 to 40 party-goers before shots were fired. antioch police want to talk to anyone who has information about this. and now to a surprisingly strong win for newt gingrich in the south carolina republican primary. the former house speaker took 40% of the vote, despite front-runner mitt romney's wave of momentum heading into the state. romney finished second, trailing 12 points behind. now, political experts say gingrich's performance at two recent debates helped pull conservatives over to his side. the focus now shifts to florida where romney still has the lead. nbc bay area political analyst

larry gjertsen will have a detailed look on the primaries later in the show, and newt gingrich will be a guest on this morning's "meet the press." san francisco mayor ed lee is asking sheriff ross mirkarimi to ask himself if he can be effective on the job. the mayor is questioning whether mirkarimi can effectively carry out his law enforcement duties while facing criminal charges of domestic violence. according to the "the san francisco chronicle" lee stopped short of calling murky reason toe take a leave of absence. both mirkarimi and his wife deny reports of abuse by a neighbor but a judge extended the order for murky reason toe stay away from his wife and child until a trial is over. as mayor ed lee has the power to suspend an elected official from his conduct and start the removal process, something he said he's not going to do. the first major storm of the season brought rain. that we needed. what we could have done without is the pole and utility problems that came with. a water main broke saturday

morning when heavy rains caused the ground to give way. at least 50 feet of pavement along with a huge tree fell down a steep slope landing on the roadway below. people who live in the area say they are not surprised that this happened. >> sort of worry about it every year, when the heavy rains, especially when it hasn't been raining all year and then last night a downpour like last night. >> a reality of living in the hills. >> residents are now taking detours to get into and out of their neighborhood. the rain here means snow in tahoe, a welcome sight for the economy and ski resorts. eight inches of snow fell in a matter of hours on friday and that put them back in business and made for a very cold pit stop. chains are still recovered on interstate 50 this morning.

>> i'm surprise it had took so long. i'm happy it's here. >> i think it will really boost the tourism in the area. >> i saw a couple of cars just spinning around. >> as ski reports reported as much as two feet of new snow at the summit, but the bad news is it rained at the base of most of the resorts. despite the latest storms, the snow pack is one of the lowest on record to date. >> we still have more ahead for you on "today in the bay," coming up, more twists in the italian cruise ship disaster as the captain has a new explanation of why he wasn't the last man on board. plus, how two 49er fans won tickets to today's huge playoffe you'lltu wt to see p tiric ungcop. p dinner? candles?

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good morning to you. looking live at candlestick, so quiet right now, but it is going to be roaring with fans. both of the red and gold and the blue and red as well. well, this morning rescuers are

once again searching parts of the "costa concordia" above water after rough seas made the underwater search too dangerous. 12 people confirmed dead and 20 people are still missing. the cruise ship is partially submerged lying on its side off the coast of the italian island of giglio. today instruments monitoring the "costa concordia" indicated that the cruise ship shifted slightly. workers on site are getting ready to pump heavy fuel off the vessel as well. meantime, rescue crews say they found the body of a woman yesterday in a narrow corridor towards the rear of the ship. divers have been wanting to search that area for days because it was an emergency meeting spot, so a place passengers would have gone after the alarm sounded. this is video of crews searching that area. the coast guard says crews will continue to search for survivors and bodies as long as the conditions are safe. >> just one team at a time because a lot of people, there is more because there is no

space to move with everything you need underwater. >> and a newly released recording from the night of the crash has the captain telling a coast guard official that he planned on being the last person on board the ship, but he claims that he tripped off the ship and fell into the water and was rescued by a life boat. he says he insisted that those rescuers were taken back to the ship but they refused. that is opposite, of course, of another recording that has the coast guard ordering him to return to the boat and the captain refusing. the captain remains on house arrest facing multiple charges of manslaughter and abandoning ship. much more ahead, still to come, the winners of the san francisco park and recreation 49ers giveaway. the quirky picture that helped the couple win that contest. it's cute, rob. >> good to see you, kris. looking live out at candlestick park, a lot of clouds, no rain just yet but watching the rain prus the wind as we get closer to kickoff time.

the rest of your sunday forecast is coming right up.

good morning to you. looking live at san francisco from across the bay. a pretty shot. nice and calm and quiet. maybe you're up early this morning getting your chilly red for the big game. hopefully whatever you're making is nice and warm because it's going to be rainy and stormy, and you might be chilly even if you're watching at home on the couch, rob. >> yeah, the winds will be picking up and eventually the winds picking up as well. right now the numbers are starting to come up in terms of the low temperatures as the clouds spill on in and eventually the winds cranking up out of the south. right now you're waking up to low to mid-40s throughout the bay area. you can say we're at 45 in san jose and 46 in san francisco and temperatures now in the north bay, too, in the low 40s. the winds starting to pick up. we're starting to see the change here out by napa east at 13. these will continue to increase throughout the day especially into the salinas valley.

we'll see the gusty southeasterly winds picking up all the way into this evening. some areas of light rain at times. heavier rain for the north bay as we go through the afternoon and eventually the heavier rain and gusty wind start to spread across the rest of the bay area after sundown. right now a lot of moisture across the north bay and more snow for the sierra but the best lift and moisture out of this pattern will roll in later on today. breezy conditions all day long with rain off and on. highs likelihood for showers will be north of san francisco for the early afternoon, and as we get towards the evening the winds will really crank up for the coastal hill tops. 20 to 40 miles per hour. a wind advisory up from the peninsula south, starting this evening into tonight, so towards the end of the 49ers/giants game, looks like we could see gusty rain and the rain increasing throughout the night. hour by hour, most of the heavier rain we think will hold off until very late in the day into tonight. around 3:00 the rain is starting to show up around san francisco.

6:00, 7:00, second half of the game, now you're starting to see that rain drop out of the north bay and this evening, pretty heavy rain right over san francisco, and as we go into the morning commute, rain clearing out of the south bay. things rapidly improving as we head towards monday afternoon. do want to show you the wind field here offshore as the game gets started. 30-mile-per-hour winds offshore approaching the peninsula around 6:00 and 7:00. late in the game we could see the gusty winds picking up to 30 miles per hour out of the south. our rainfall estimates as we go through the day, notice this. not so bad around the peninsula south. not too heavy for the start of the day and as we head into the evening and overnight, look at that, possibly two to three more inches for some of the north bay hill tops. the main event we see coming in from 9:00 tonight through about 4:00 tomorrow morning. around the bay area today, highs in the mid-50s. winds kicking up as we head through the afternoon. sierra snow levels close to 5,000 feet where we'll have a winter storm warning into the afternoon and on the coast, still that high surf advisory so watch out for that.

kind of a rough finish to the weekend though the worst of it now looks like it will roll tonight into early tomorrow morning, like the friday system where a lot happened overnight and high pressure will build in and we'll dry out again with fog in the middle part of the week. start of the game, gusty, not so bad. rain off and on and winds picking up as we head through this evening. >> hopefully the people who will tailgate, the parking lot won't get as flooded with the last round of rain. >> looks like the heavy rain should hold off until later on tonight. >> the year of the dragon begins tomorrow but help ring in the lunar new year today. you can get in on the festivities celebrating vietnamese new year at the santa clara county fairgrounds. there will be drum performances, games and rides. admission is $12 for adults. $8 for kid. in oakland's chinatown, the lunar new year festivities start at 10:00 this morning. there you can expect cultural entertainment and foods

featuring popular goods. admission there is free, and the san jose sharks make way for a different kind of skating in the south bay. the u.s. figure skating national championships kick off at the hp pavilion starting tonight. 250 skaters, some of them from the bay area, will compete in different age categories. the championships began this morning at sock and the skaters will compete all week long. there are still tickets available. in san francisco, a newly married couple got quite the surprise. they won two tickets to the 49ers game today. the san francisco 49ers -- the san francisco recreation and parks department announced friday that it was holding a contest to find the biggest fans. they wanted people to get in touch through facebook and twitter and tell them why they like the recreation and parks department, and the prize was two playoff tickets. jolie and ben clauson were married 18 month ago in san francisco and submitted this picture of themselves of their first kiss photo shops in which

jolie is dreaming of linebacker and ben thinking of the girls. >> the recreation and parks department received 1,000 posts and tweets in less than 24 hours time. what's not to like about that department. we don't want to sound like we're jumping the gun, but some stores are gearing up for a possible 49ers victory today. select sports authority stores throughout the bay area will be open early tomorrow in the niners win. doors will unlock at 7:00. find out which shops will open early so you can get your gear that says nfc champions. did you know a top player for the new york giants grew up in the east bay. we'll show you how his friends and family are joining with conflict. do they root for their buddyeam? ort team?al rep that special rcoept micong up. [ mom ] hey guys.

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$3,000 armani suits, forget it. the 49ers wardrobe reflects their style. have you seen their custom shirts? >> jim harbaugh has certainly brought the 49ers championship swagger with a workman-like attitude, and it all started in training camp with wearable symbolism, work shirts he gave their players with names stitched above the pockets. >> he told the story about how when he was a kid he remembered thinking it was his grandfather would come home and untuck his shirt when the workday was done, and that's kind of the way we do it around here. >> that's what he did with the shirts, you know. he let us know that we're going to take the grind like mentality and go get it. >> and they are getting a concept that harbaugh first introduced at stanford when he gave his players similar shirts. now the niners are making the most of working as a collective. >> i think definitely being an offensive lineman you have to come to work prepared to do anything, and -- and, you know, so for us it's an everyday

thing, and -- and here's a man that can tell you about it. >> hi. let me tell you about it. >> here it is. >> even if joe staly inevitably let's his work on the field do the talking, they have transformed it into a wine and cheese crowd into a six pack band of brothers. >> we come to work every day, and we work all the way up to saturday or sunday when we play and we can take our shirts off, put our feet up and have a nice cold beverage. >> it's all business, and you get down to it. you need to do the things to get better each day, and that's really what we've held on to this whole year. >> with the niners before the nfc championship, i'm lorne scott. >> i think we'll be seeing more of those blue work shirts. many bay area football fans will be cheering on the 49ers today, there are some bay area folks who will be root are for the new york giants, at least one player

in particular. that's because he grew up in the bay area. a conversation with some childhood friends of tollefson. >> number 71, david tollefson, defensive end for the new york giants, is a hometown boy. he was drafted by the green bay packers and spent some time with the raiders before moving to new york. >> always been a standout. >> not because he's the biggest guy or the strongest person. it's because his heart beats a lot stronger than anybody else on that football field. i truly believe that. >> tollefson is still close to a group of friends from ignacio high school who say he's so proud of who he is and how he got there. >> never gave up and to see him actually make the nfl, a dream of his, it's pretty nice. >> one of his friends coaches football at their alma mater and used david as an example of hard

work can pay off. >> i use david, you know, because david came from where we came from, you know, from the same house, from the same family, from the same school, you know, with the same problems. >> the message is have a dream and make a decision. dave made a decision, like i'm taking football to the next level. >> and while some of his friends admit they do live vicariously through tollefson, when it comes to the nfc championship game, the line between friendship and the faithful continue gets a bit muddl muddled. >> it's tough, like your two loves fighting. definitely going to be interesting. >> i wish dave a great game. if he gets a sack, i'll cheer for him, but i do want the 49ers to win. >> now game aside, at the end of the day, these friends say it's just good to have tollefson back in the bay area. >> he's in the nfl, but to us he's not an nfl superstar. to us he's chip, the gay who played tight end and outside

linebacker for the ignacio valley warriors. >> all those guys say they grew up living in each other's houses, going back and forth, and though their lives have taken them in different directions, they still keep in touch. and now we have breaking news for you to report. the nbc news is confirming that joe paterno, the legendary coach of penn state has passed away. the family made announcement and nbc news was able to confirm that. he died after battling lung cancer, and, of course, he was most recently fired from his longtime service at penn state because of the child sexual abuse scandal in which he did not respond to a coach who was accused of sexual molestation. we'll have more on that coming up for new just a moment. also coming up, a sweet 16 party ends in violence. more on the overnight shooting in antioch. 49ers playoffpreview. a preview of the game and the

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and looking live at the stick, all quiet now and hopefully not too flooded for the tailgaters who are lucky enough to get into that nfc championship game. a look at the gameday forecast and never before has hour been hour been so important. >> especially since yesterday was a lake how the in the parking lot. got that cleaned up. right now they don't have a lot of rain this morning. 40s outside. the winds will be picking up. you'll notice this as we get into the afternoon. winds picking up anywhere from about 20 to 30 miles per hour. can you see here on the radar starting to see a little bit of light rain offshore as more moisture and more lift to the atmosphere takes place. that's why we're calling for breezy conditions. rain at times to start and a greater likelihood of rain and wind as we go through the end of

the game. 8:00 around the bay area, driest part of the day. between now and noon a few showers, rain in the north bay and spreading south by 4:00. highs today in the mid-50s so nowhere near as nice as that almost spring lique weather we saw for the saints game but at least right now it doesn't look like we're going to see flooding or heavy rain at the start of the game but the chances of rain and wind will be picking up as the game wears on for the second half. >> all right. thank you very much, rob. we want to continue our coverage of breaking news. former penn state head coach joe patno herno has passed away. paterno was hospitalized earlier this month from complicationed from battling lung cancer. you might recall he was fired from penn state over his handling of a sexual abuse scandal involving a former assistant coach. paterno was 85 years old. in a statement the family says he died as he lived. he fought hard until the end, stayed positive, thought only of others and constantly reminded everyone of how blessed his life

had been. again, joe paterno dead at 85 after 61 years leading penn state. well, your tv listing is telling you the truth. the san francisco 49ers are really in the nfc title game today. in just eight hours the big kickoff happens, and destiny will run its course. the 49ers will host the new york giants at candlestick park, and it will be the second time this season that the two teams meet up. the first one november 13th, that game that rob was talking about, so sunny and bright. it did go down to the wire though. 49ers won 27-20 after the defense found a way to stop the giants in the red zone. that win is not the only reason that the niners and jim harbaugh, the head coach, are confident heading into the game that decides whether or not the red and gold head to the super bowl. >> damn sure got to be confident, and all these guys are, and if -- and if you're not, you know, both teams expect, you know, coming into this game with a great deal of

confidence. >> we're focused but at the same time we're loose, and that comes from our head coach. you know, he allows us to be football players, to make plays, and that's what we're dealing with. we're very focused on what we have to do, and we know what's at stake. >> kickoff is set for 3:38. if the niners win they will head to the super bowl for the first time since 1994 and they will play either the new england patriots or the baltimore ravens. that will be decided before the niners hit the field today. grammy award winning band train will kick off things before today's game. san francisco bay group will perform their song "save me, san francisco." their album of the same name has sold more than 1 million copies worldwide and the nfl is beefing up security at candlestick today. extra security cameras and undercover officers will be watching for unruly fans. anyone found being abusive will be ejected from the stadium. officials say they do not want a repeat of last week's playoff game in which some new orleans saints fans complained about being harassed and even

threatened by niner fans. and the a reminder if you're headed to candlestick today, muni will have several express lines to take you to the stadium from both the north and the east bay. after arriving in the city, hop on the 75x, 77x, 78x or 79x links to get to the park. if you plan on driving, you won't be able to get into that parking lot until 11:30 this morning. this morning police are investigating a shooting at a sweet 16 house party in antioch. it happened at a home on wilmont court just after 10:30 last night. six people were injured, including a 13-year-old. they were all taken to local hospital. most of them have been released, though several people remain in intensive care. investigators say there was an argument between 30 to 40 party-goers, and then there were shots fired. anyone with information is asked to call the antioch police department. an armed man responsible for an hour's long standoff with oakland police is still on the loose this morning.

investigators say the man shot two people around 10:30 yesterday morning in east oakland before running into a nearby building and barricading himself inside. more than six hours later, when a s.w.a.t. team entered the building, they came up empty. on top of that, police accidentally started a fire inside the building when they launched a flash bang grenade inside. one of the victims involved in the shooting has life-threatening injuries. also in oakland, dozen s gathered to protest big banking practices some of the closed bank of america accounts as part of the event they call share the fortune. the group cold itself colorful mamas of the 99% and said it is taking action begins it feels corporations such as bank of america aren't paying their fair share in taxes. members say they know their contribution may be small, but it's symbolic and necessary. >> it's symbolic. it's the idea that if bank of america is not investing in our children, we're in the going to invest our money in them, and

also i think that we want to contribute. we're mothers. we're mothers of young families. we're super busy, and we want to show people that even as busy as we are we are willing to stand up for what we think our children need. >> the action was planned to coordinate with the lunar new year. we still have more ahead for you on "today in the bay." coming up, what you'll have to put on your letter byroom t lor. hey guys, breakfast! t

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looking live at candlestick. don't forget if you're headed out to the game, you're very lucky. you should count your blessings. also leave your umbrellas at home because even though there are scattered showers in the forecast, you're not allowed to bring in your umbrellas, so get your poncho on. cnbc's sue herera has a look at the upcoming week in the world of business including how well the nation's economy grew at the end of last year. >> some of the biggest companies in the u.s. report their latest

quarterly earnings this week. we'll see how firms like apple, mcdonald's, verizon, 3-m, dupont, boeing, caterpillar, procter & gamble and at&t all did in the final three months of 2011. the federal reserve meets this week to discuss any steps it can take and also put out a forecast for the economy and its benchmark interest rates and the government gives its first look of how the u.s. economy grew at the end of last year. it's known as the gross domestic product. president obama gives his state of the union address on tuesday night, and the "x" day he hits the road for a five-state three-day tour to promote some programs from that speech. south carolina's republican primary will be behind us, and attention will turn to florida which holds its primary on january 31st. this week look for two more debates featuring the four remaining gop presidential hopefuls. and it's going to cost a little bit more to mail that letter or postcard this week. the price of a first class stamp

goes one penny higher to 45 cents. a postcard will cost 32 cents, and that's up another three pennies. i'm sue herera. get all your business news on cnbc. and a reminder, you can also get your business and tech news with scott mcgrew before the bell. "today in the bay" starts at 4:30 in the morning. much more ahead, still to come, the republican presidential primary. political analyst larry gjertsen will explain what's behind the volatility in the last three contests. >> good morning. i'm mike inouye. lots to do "today in the bay." in need to bend over backwards for fun with the family. head over to berkeley and these folks will do it for you. the peking acrobats are the largest and most acclaimed group of its kind, and they have been mesmerizing audiences for over 50 years. now, 50 seems like a long time but some of the disciplines involved in this show, over 2,000 years old. the performers are not.

calperformances.org to get tickets. they say peking probably because we used to say peking but now both countries we say beijing like in the olympics. can you say wushu. across the bay at the san francisco palace of fine arts they can. you can see weapon twirling and jumping and splitting, boo-yah, yeah. this legendary team with the current world champion and national champion will leave you understanding why the word art is in martial arts. in case you hadn't heard, today is the big game for the niners or one of them at least, we hope. bring it in, the kickoff at 3:30 this afternoon but the parking lot is open at 113:00. highway 101 will jam with 49er faithful converging by train, bus, ferry and a heap of people will mean a heap of slowing. use 280 because this likely will have worse slowing than last week, but, well, first harbaugh

and now bailey and now i say it. come on, join me. who's got it better? nobody. yeah. let's go, niners. requested today in the bay."

we are getting an early lock at the president's state of the union address. reports say president obama will focus on economic fairness for the middle class. he will talk about promoting african -- american manufacturing, worker training and more reliance on home-grown energy resources. the president will also talk about a return to american values. a reminder, can you watch the state of the union address this tuesday right here on nbc bay area. in south carolina, republican voters did something they have never done before. newt gingrich won the primary, and in doing so made history. never before have there been three different winners of iowa, new hampshire and south carolina. nbc's steve handlesman has a

look at what newt gingrich has to say about this win. >> usa, usa. >> the triumphant peak in a roller coaster ride. >> we want to run an american campaign. >> newt gingrich pulled 20 points ahead in south carolina and then fell ten behind and won big. >> it's not that i am a good debater. it is that i articulate the deepest felt values of the american people. >> but gingrich broke through in two debates here, sounding tough and confident. >> i think grandiose thoughts. this is a grandiose country. >> south carolinians who decided late went for gingrich. tea partiers and evangelicals, too. >> mitt, mitt, mitt! >> mitt romney had stumbled admitting he paid a tax rate of just 15%, not releasing his returns, he got slammed by his rivals and tonight fired back. >> when my opponents attack success and free enterprise, they are not only attacking me, they are attacking every person who dreams of a better future. he's attacking you. >> rick santorum ran third but

vowed to continue. ron paul, too, but not in florida, the next contest. that's where romney is better financed and organized, but where gingrich now goes with momentum and full fight. >> if you want your children to have a live of independency and paychecks, you have a candidate that's newt gingrich, and i'll bet you we have votes everywhere. >> the gingrich/romney tie gets broken in ten days. florida will be an expensive battle, heavy with advertising. it's shaping up as negative and nasty. i'm steve handlesman, nbc news, columbia, south carolina. >> so what now? traditionally republicans settle on their presidential nominee pretty early on in the process, so how does yesterday's outcome in south carolina fit into the mix? no one is more excited about than nbc bay area political analyst larry gerten because this really does make things interesting. what does it mean for the race now? >> sure, it's very exciting.

who knows. a couple of things to consider. you look at the data in terms of what happened last night. newt gingrich winning, winning big, winning really big. it really seems to be at least for now the republicans are coalescing around newt gingrich but who knows. that could change. they have colesd around so many people already, but for the time being he is the anti-romney conservative. the question is can he go on from there? that's the question. we know that the contests have served a purpose these three, they have narrowed down the number of contestants from about 12 to four, and that's important but now the race takes on a different hue. we're getting to the point where you're getting down and dirty, a lot of time, a lot of money and the question is who can stay on top, you know? romney has never been able to get there for very long. >> right. newt gingrich got a big boost from a group of voters that doesn't usually support him, the evangelicals, born again. >> yeah. >> they supported him over romney. >> is that contributing to the volatility, do you think? >> yeah.

i think there are probably three big factors, a lot, but three big factors have to do with gingrich's surge. you know, first just what you said, the evangelical vote. no question about it. romney has not been able to convince evangelicals that they are the ones who out to be on board. he hasn't been able to show them in their minds, at least, that he is a true christian. they just don't consider him a christian, and the reason why we get so worked up about the evangelicals because in the republican primaries in a given state they can be as much as 60% of the vote this becomes really important, important for romney, and he hasn't been able to break through with that group. the super pacs, all the money we're talking about. the new multi-million dollar funds that comp out of nowhere basically. we don't even know who is behind them, they allow individuals and organizations to just pummel the airwaves with all kinds of campaign material, and so with that, you know, with that courtesy of the supreme court decision, citizens united

decision, you might remember that, someone like gingrich can come out of nowhere. sheldon adeleson, a guy in las vegas, a hotel magnate, gave a gingrich pac $5 million. you know what? $5 million in south carolina you can almost buy the state. that really mattered and third, the debate. that's the other factor. 14 so far and they are tailor made for gingrich. he used them to make up for the funds he otherwise would not have. thursday night he clobbered john king of cnn, made mince of him and that exchange was aired 40 times in south carolina over the next 24-hour period. that's like 40 ads, so, i mean, you put these things together it's really worked well for gingrich this week. >> and even in some of the exit polling for some of the folks walking out said i walked in thinking i was going to voting for romney and walked out that i did vote for newt gingrich. >> two-thirds of the people changed their mind in the last week, that is -- that is amazing, that so many people would change their mind, so

persuade that had way. >> now the question is, what do south carolina voters have to do with us, a and when does this maine for our primary? is it going to be relevant? it usually it not. >> so much the afterthought almost every time because traditionally we have our primary in june. june is months away. we know that, okay, but everything is different this time. it could be that california does get involved. we've got about 10% of the delegates, kris, who will be going to the reach can nominating convention. normally, the other 90 are decided, somebody's won, if neither romney nor gingrich can deliver that knockout punch and -- and rob paul and rick santorum stick around for their own reasons, taking away bits and pieces here, this thing could go muddied along until june. this is not the republican way, by the way. >> no. >> the republicans are very tidy and like to get things done early so they can get to work on the campaign, so everything is different this year. the other thing something we haven't thought about super

tuesday. now last time around super tuesday had 31 states. it was the deciding point. this time super tuesday not so super, okay. it's only going to have ten states involved which means that the process drags out and draks o out, drags out bit by bit and drop by drop and you wonder when is somebody going to break through? that's why california this time may be involved. >> the democrats can't celebrate this because they dragged it out for themselves. >> some say this is glee for the democrats. and anybody who says that really is foolish. go back to 2008 and you saw hillary clinton and barack obama, they duked it out to the very end, to summer, to june, so anyone who is thinking that just go back four years and you'll remember you can still fight hard till the end and still come out a winner, and that's certainly what romney and gingrich are thinking right now. >> all right. we'll be watching this one, and a reminder to get more of larry's political insight any time.

nbcbayarea.com and do a search for prop zero. still ahead on "today in the bay," your 49ers game forecast. what you can expect at candlestick park, whether you're there or watching on tv. >> and speaking of candlestick park, there's a live view. we've got cloudy skies, rain to follow and winds picking up, too, your complete nfc championship forecast and sunday forecast coming right up. sweetheart. we need to talk. i've seen your stunts online. i can explain... jumping a ramp in a shopping cart. so 2005. wait, what? and only 3 likes?

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good sunday morning to you. 7:564 right now. nfc championship sunday. as can you see, we've got clouds over candlestick, a little bit of light rain in the north day right now but dry around most of the peninsula, and as we continue to watch the weather there, can you see golden gate bridge, actually the bridge deck is dry right now. a lot of folks probably not expecting that. it does look like move of the heavy rain is going to hold off until a little bit later on this afternoon. especially tonight into tomorrow morning. outside right now, we have our temperatures in the mid-40s.

45 san jose. not much wind outside right now and what you're going to notice, especially around the santa clara valley and salinas valley, winds picking up to 20 miles per hour during the afternoon and maybe some gusts, getting close to 40 a little bit later on tonight. right now the radar shows you we're getting more lift to the moisture that's approaching the north bay as it heads over the coastal range. it adds extra lift and that's when we get the raindrops starting off right now in the north bay. we'll see some rain off and on around the peninsula, areas north of son jose and breezy conditions, some rain at times, off and on for the morning and filling in from north to south as we go through mid-afternoon into this evening, and the then tomorrow morning, this is when the biggest punch will arrive with the gusty winds out of the south at 20 to 40 miles per hour. at about 6:00 in the morning and things should be clearing out as we go through the afternoon. quick chick here -- quick check here. rain towards this evening.

biggest punch from 11:00 to 4:00 tomorrow morning, and the other thing we're watching is the wind around the game. can you see here the areas of yellow and orange offshore. these will be winds of 30 miles per hour. the reason why wind advisories are up from the peninsula south as we head through this afternoon and this evening, and there you see the rain totals. heading into tomorrow morning, the heavier rain looks like that will roll in after about 7:00 and 8:00 tomorrow night. around the bay area, mid-50s. look out for the gusty win. breezy all day long. snow near 5,000 feet so a winter storm warning there and look at the punch of rain coming in tonight and tomorrow morning. sideways at times, gusty winds and high pressure takes hold, and we're going to dry out again. high pressure means some morning fog early part of the week. off and on rain for the game and gusty winds increasing towards the fourth quarter as things wrap up at candlestick today. >> if it's not a close game, i think a lot of folks are probably going to leave early?

>> well, it's a championship game. got to stick around for the party afterwards. >> thanks, rob. in san francisco, newly married couple got quite the surprise. they now have two tickets to today's niners game. san francisco recreation and parks department announced friday that it was holding a contest to find the biggest fan. they connected with people through facebook and twitter asking them why they liked the department and the prize was two playoff tickets. they were 18 ago in san francisco and tweeted a photo of their first kiss photo shopped where jolie is fantasizing about linebacker patrick willis and ben is dreaming of the gold rush girls. >> this is a fantastic wedding present. thank you, san francisco, reck and park. we love it. >> congratulations. >> the couple did have a lot of competition. the recreation and parks department got 1,000 posts and tweets in less than 24 hours. and we are ready for kickoff. we hope that the niners -- >> that's right. >> will take it away. thanks so much for making us a

part of your morning. rob, your prediction. always good for one. >> the next time we see the niners will be right here on nbc because we do have the super bowl rights here. go, 49ers. >> rooting in more way than one. have a great day and go niners.