[captioning made possible by nbc universal] >> this is "the chris matthews show". >> ask not what your country can do for you -- >> the time for it has come. chris: the challenge for re-election, barack obama needs to hold his share of the white working class. he did ok in getting to the white house. he needs to do at least as well this time and so far he's not. what romney says women want. and the glamour factor. jack and jackie were the first celebrity first family. who has that quality this time in and what happens when a political rock star meets a square like mitt romney? hi, i'm chris matthews.

with us today, michael duffy of "time" magazine, liz marlantes of the "christian science monitor," patricia murphy and david leonhardt. six months from the election but the pros know voters are locking in right now, believe it or not the 2/3 are already telling pollsters they've made their final choice and most have the horse race obama-romney, very close. we're looking inside it today. maybe the exee is white voters. when he won last time barack obama got 43% of white voters. in this week's wall street journal poll he got 40%. whites it -- have tipped dramatic throy romney. 42% said they would be pessimistic abandon worried if probe was re-elected but only 22% said they would be if romney won the what's going on? had >> barack obama did not get a

big majority of white voters last time and he's not going to get it this time. his main problem is white men. he's running closer to 34%, 35%. he's losing white men both under age 50 and if ne make less than $50,000 a year and it's very hard to imagine he's going to get more than i got last time the chris: is it about jobs, unemployment, more? >> he hasn't made a clear case to those voters about why he deserves a second term. that's what the next six months are going to be about. chris: i thought most of us know that the candidates that win tentd to be the optimistic, sunny ones. does romney represent that to people? >> no. not right now. some of the most striking poll numbers have been the romney numbers on general like aability. chris: why are they saying

they're more pessimistic if approximate theys -- he's re-elected then? >> that's not voters overall. that's voters predisposed to vote for romney. certain questions in the in poll, for example, about whether people thought the economy would get better, worse, or stay the same depending who would get elected, by far the most on both sides said it would say the same. chris: why are whites tougher on obama when it comes to optimism or pessimism? white voters lean right now, look, the same poll asks which man would be better at setting a proper moral tone for the country? among working class white voters, 49% said romney would be better at setting the right moral tone. less than half that, just 23% of white working people say obama would be better at setting the right moral tone. david, i'm looking at this,

looking for code, i think i see it. what has obama done in any way to make people question his moral tone. >> if you're asking is race possibly playing a role here i think we need to acknowledge that race and possibly religion will play may role in this election. of course as much as we would like to think we're a country in which those things wouldn't. but to answer the question directly i think there is a way in which the state of the economy is a moral issue and if he comes to office promising to fix it and he hasn't, that say moral issue. chris: you're going a little far here beyond my ability to comprehend. you ask many, many questions in these nbc wall street journal polls. and they're very particular. in this case you say moral and you believe they jump to the economy. >> i'm not exactly sure what they jump to. i think there are a the lot of things going on. liz's point is a good one, when

you have voters predisposed to like a candidate they answer questions in all kinds of ways that simply flow from that basic belief. but -- chris: optimism and pessimism, we were asking that a moment ago. maybe a person who cuzz the -- doesn't like obama because of his background, his race, may be pessmiffletic with -- if you want to be ludicrous about this. >> if you look at the right track/wrong track obama is way upside down just from people's basic beliefs is the country getting better. i think morality is way roughed up in religion and this president hasn't been overtly religion. he doesn't goo to -- go to church on sunday and if you are catholic or evangelical you don't see him demonstrating

religion in the right ways. >> but luckily for him romney doesn't either. chris: by the way, they might have thought the question was morale. [laughter] let's turn to west. a less touchy issue and how that stands today. among women who say they've already made up their mind, obama leads. stunning statistic. only 27%, about one in four for romney. pretty dramatic the >> there is always a gender gratch -- gap. the democratic candidate always wins women in modern history. but the size can determine the outcome of the election. if you win women by a big or small margin it can make a big difference. chris: do you city something in romney too 1950's, too old-school about women? >> i think women are not necessarily going to look at this in the same way. i don't think they're necessarily voting on so-called

women's issues. i think romney's best chance at appealing to women voters is the tack he is trying right now, making it about the economy and so far he has a big uphim battle. chris: that same question with you. hillary rosen made that sort of unpleasant comment about how ann romney never worked a day in her life and anybody who has raised six sons has worked. >> or one son the chris: yet this poll shows no impact of that kerr fuffle. >> i think it was a distraction. but it at least stopped the discussion about republicans and contraception and the war on women and let him put a toe in the water and start to talk about women and relate to them better. he has relied on her way too much so far. he has sent her out as -- like

a scout to a foreign nation and had her come back and translate. chris: "my wife" -- yeah, "my wife tells me women care about the economy. " well, go talk to them and find out yourself the >> but the key is age. over 50 and female in this country, obama has a slight lead of seven points. if you are under 50 and female obama haze lead of 18 points over romney. chris: explain, lucy. >> of course. i'm on safe ground all over here. but the point is this is where the battle is being lost and is going to be lost and won in the election. whichever candidate can capture a large percentage margin of younger women voters is going to win in this election. >> i think the p even more important statistic is married versus unmarried. he is winning unmarried women,

romney is winning -- i think women don't heart same language come at them. family issues don't as often apply to unmarried women. chris: let's jump to the more obvious. david, i think ann romney comes across as more regular than romney and that's why he uses her. >> yeah, both obama and romney struggle to come off as regular and both their wives kim off as more regular. clearly that's a help. what's complicated for romney is congress. we have a very conservative republican house who believes quite deeply in a lot of conservative principles that don't poll especially well with women and as romney is trying to tack to the center he's often going to have the house sort of pulling back to the right on all sorts of issues and that's going to be complicated. >> state legislatures have made things hard for him too. the war on women issues,

georgia, around the country. chris: and finally, look at hispanics. among those who would definitely made their choice, obama gets 47%. half the hispanic voters inn this country have made up their mind for obama. particularly astounding when you look at his record. he said he was for immigration and hasn't pursued it at all. he has deported more than any other president. there is enormous latino disappointment yet there is so much opposition with romney that they are essentially coming home to the. -- to the president. chris: florida, going to be a big impact yks night? >> absolutely. in the last election the hispanic vote was absolutely critical for obama and by all

indications it's -- it's going to be a bigger percentage of the electorate this time. sort of apocalyptic predictions that the republican party is doomed in the long term is all about the hispanic vote. they're talking about how arizona might actually be in play and that's tire -- entirely because of hispanics. chris: he's had to shift so far to the right he's got himself way out of position? anyway, governor perry is back where we belongs probably. i -- before we break, it's earth day this sunday. pollution ain't what it used to be in politics like in 1980 when ronald reagan infamously claimed trees were the biggest cause of pollution in the country. that of course became a laugh line for us. >> the same republicans who talk about preserving the environment have nominated a

man who last year made the preposterous statement that, and i quote, 80% of our air pollution comes from plants and trees. >> i know teddy kennedy had fun at the democratic convention when he said i had said trees and vegetation caused 780 -- 80% of the air pollution in the country. first of all i didn't say 82%. i said 92%. chris: his insistence became a pain in the neck for his handlers during that campaign swing the here's chris wallace -- >> in the reagan campaign aids have a special term for their man's misstatements, demrifments but tuesday night in one of his rare ad lick situations he glitched again, speculating that mount saint helen's and trees pollute more than cars and factories.

we call these impromptu interviews door stops. by day's end they had reached double digits. the next day, the reporter who asked the question is off the plane. chris: kicked off the campaign plane! well, 60% of americans now say global warming is real. romney says he's just not sure how much mankind subpoena contributing to it and he opposes any government action on that front including anything to reduce c.o. 2 emissions. when we come back, it's a celebrity world out there and barack obama himself became a celebrity when the kids latched on to him in 2008 and their parents fell in life. will there be a messiah this time or a mechanic?

>> i do not think it altogether inappropriate to introduce myself to this audience. i am the man who accompanied jacqueline kennedy to paris and i enjoyed it. chris: welcome back. that was of course president kennedy in paris soon after he took office in 1961. the kennedys of course redefined glamour in politics. when barack obama won last time, he had become sort of a rock star to many young people and that caught on with their parents. michael duffy is out with the "time" 100 this week, the most influential people. it includes people i've never heard of but ones i have definitely heard of and so -- others like tim tebow and

jeremy lin of sports fame. but they used this ad last time about his celebrity status. >> he's the biggest celebrity in the world. but is he ready to lead? >> i'm john mccain and i approved this message. chris: ok. this time around will the romney folks doing their super pac spending spree go after this guy as a faux messiah celebrity in >> question is whether obama has enough star power left to go after. mitt romney can run as many things, sturdy, safe, reliable, competent bun as a rock star because he's never going to be one. the good news for him is that obama is not a charismatic rock star any more. when he ran in 2008 he was all things to all people, a symbol of whatever they wanted him to be but that's not true any more. and we may actually have a more

substantive campaign. chris: i'm going to interject here that most presidents who have gone on to be great presidents have had an element of celebrity. kennedy of course. roosevelt of course. can romney ever get on the cover of rolling stone? >> i don't think so. well, we'll see. who knows? but certainly star power is an asset but i've been thinking about this and when you look at the careers of actual celebrities who have gone into politics, arnold schwarzenegger or jesse ventura, they often do very poorly once they're in office because they can't believe -- live up to -- up to their own hype because some of the traits that make you good on the campaign trail are not the traits that plaque you a good leader, that can get people to work together and push their agenda through congress, for instance. what you do want in a leader,

not necessarily the same characteristics. chris: mitt romney can be seen as a mechanic? i'm a square but i can fix the sink? >> he has to. that's what is believable with him and more than celebrity is often authenticity. chris: i love how on mad men don draper won the love of his wife by fixing the sink the >> i don't think he's going to be a celebrity. i think he clears the bar of a number of people. chris: will he ever become romney a star to republicans? will they go wild for him? >> i think they will because they're excited about beating obama. >> i don't think so. chris: you don't think they'll be that excited? >> no. >> two to one against him.

>> they felt the same way about reagan. chris: ok. he became a rock star. well, next, the note

chris: welcome back. mike, tell me something i don't know. >> the we're about to enter a week of bin laden death anniversary stories. when that's over i think we're going to learn that a michigan -- much smaller groufpble people in the obama administration knew about the mission than we had previously

understood. chris: didn't know till the last minute? >> much tighter loop than previously reported. >> there was a lot of focus on the secret service this week but one story that didn't get as much attention is the fact that newt gingrich who we all know is not going to be the republican nominee is getting secret scrf protection at $40,000 a day. there are some conservative anti-tax groums now starting to think about this as a waste of money. >> we talked about the gender gap. unmarried women are air growing demographic in this country and if republicans don't get right with them they're not going win presidential elections. >> we're going to spend a lot of time talking about hillary clinton at the end of 201 when he wins ore loses. if he wins, she is president obvious person and if he loses she is the obvious person.

ing chris: does biden make the decision first or does she? >> i think hers is more. chris: but is hers preliminary to his? i'm told it is. >> i don't know if you -- but even if he goes first she matters more. chris: when we come back, who risks more by trying to destroy his opponent in this campaign, romney or obama? his opponent in this campaign, romney or obama? be right back.

chris: welcome back. president obama openly cartoons mitt romney as a poster boy for the 1% in this country, the very rich. this week romney again said obama has failed as president. this week's big question -- for whom is it more dangerous to go totally negative? >> they're both doing it. chris: who is going to look worse doing it? >> i think it's not going to matter. chris: a wash? >> i agree. maybe a slighter bigger risk for obama because romney we've

seen going negative already in the primary. it's worse for obama. i think he would be shooting down. chris: that's a nixon reference, by the way. always be shooting up. >> exactly. >> they're both going to need to do it but it won't matter that much but it is more dangerous for obama because his record matters more. chris: they should run on their records the thank you to the round table, michael duf what'll it be?

i'll have blueberry pancakes. uh huh. actually, make that glazed pecans... ok. with chocolate... no... caramel sauce. whipped cream? uhhhhhhh, yeah... but on the side. introducing build your own pancakes. only at denny's.