>> this is "the chris matthews show". >> ask not what your country can do for you. >> take down this wall. >> i can hear you. >> the time for change has come! >> what has love got to do with it. could mitt romney be the first president since richard nixon to beat someone so likable. a job situation so desperate the president cares more about them, it's turned out for the guy that cares less. is that the bet romney is making? does love mean never having to say you're sorry. can obama rip away at the record without hurt himself? will people like him if he gets really tough? finally, still beloved after all of these years. elizabeth has reined since london has cleaning up from the blitz, since church hill's second, and there is the queen,

carrying the beauty and excellence. hi, i'm chris matthews, welcome to the show. today, john heilemann, andrea mitchell, katty kay and andrew sullivan. first up, is the country in such bad shape especially with the disastrous new jobs numbers that mitt romney can become the first president since nixon to win without being especially liked? can romney be the savior voters don't warm up to but decide they need? we know americans rate barack obama higher than mitt romney on nearly every characteristic out of a total of 18 qualities. the pollsters ask about, obama wins on 16 qualities. his biggest edges are on likeability in which he wins 3-1 over romney and on caring about the average person where he beats them 2-1. romney is banking that he wins on the two qualities and the two ones in which he is the strongest, knowledge of the economy and the ability to change washington. just the ones that could make

him elected he believes if not likeable. john, that's the weird question, could we be on the verge of having a president getting elected who isn't particularly liked? >> we could be. look, the president's people in chicago and the white house have pointed to the personal attributes, the leads that he has, not just likeability is important, shares your values, strong leader, all those attributes they point to them as being huge assets the president has, but the economy is a big millstone around his neck. mitt romney is never going to be as likable. he is never comfortable talking about the things that animate him as a person. the romney campaign isn't going to try to fix that problem. they're staying focused on the president's economic stewardship. they think they can within that argument. the rest melts away. chris: we're looking at the numbers that came on friday. the unemployment rate that rose. we had 69,000 new jobs. and new numbers tells the last couple months have been much worse than we thought. will the people say darn it, i

may not like this guy or know him very well, i'm going to take a chance? >> i think it's possible. these numbers are so unremittingly bad there is no silver lining in the jobs reports at all. companies are afraid to hire. they're looking to europe. they're seeing contagion potentially spread from greece. chris: are we looking at another recession before the election? >> i'm not sure that's possible. that would be actually be able to be quantified before the next election. it takes time for them to be measured. it is so bad that you could see people turning to mitt romney and the other downside of the numbers, despite the likeability numbers in the battleground states and the college advantages the president has, the lack of enthusiasm among his base. chris: i'll no fan of karl rove, many are not. he points out that w won in 2004 not just because he was more liked in the polling than john kerry, but he was seen as a strong leader. he argues that obama is not.

>> well, every time we see a number like the one we saw on friday where the unemployment rate ticks up again, it gives succor to the argument this is a referendum on the white house's policies it's failings. he hasn't fixed the economy. give somebody else a chance. >> there will be a moment in which you're right, people will say, the last four years have been awful and then romney will be the alternative. the next point, what are you going to do mr. romney? what are you doing that is different? i think the most potent question that obama could ask of romney is what would you do differently than george w bush did? what in your policies is different than him, either in foreign policy or domestic policy? we know and americans know that didn't work. so you do have to move from the we're dissatisfied to what do you do next? i think on that in terms of what we want to do about the debt, for example, obama's position of a balance mix of things is much more popular than romney's cut

taxes on the wealthy and slash entitlements. >> it's hard to run on a campaign where you say i haven't managed to fix it, but what would you do differently? obama is the president. he has to be the one that goes out to people and says i am starting to make it better. i know that you are still hurting. >> 2 1/2 years of actual -- the point is also, chris, on this, how many leaders have been re-elected in the west over the last three years? none. i remember working back with jimmy carter as a speechwriter. he would talk about world commodity markets, world oil prices and the public looks i don't care, you blew it. going on offense again, this romney thing, you had a great word, he suffers from affluenza, he is rich. haven't we had successful presidents born rich, f.d.r. and john f. kennedy. >> we have. the key thing and the story i wrote last week, there is a tag line that they were considering

using in chicago they may still use on romney. he has never been in it for you. what does that say? it says, it ties up he didn't create jobs at bain. he didn't create jobs in massachusetts. he has this problem of being a rich out of touch guy. he is in it for himself. you talk about f.d.r. or j.f.k., they were rich guys, but they projected the notion that they were on the side of the average voter. what chicago wants to say about romney, he doesn't have your best interests at heart. he has never delivered for you. he is all about himself. if they want to make romney not scary, he is not scary, he is going to be dorky. they have to make him a republican. a lot of the people in the middle think romney is a moderate. they have to nail him for that chris: you said it very well. we asked the that thousands leader, 12 of our regulars will voters blame barack obama personally for his campaign attacks on mitt romney as they come. 11 say yes.

you all agree, you're all in the majority, who do i start with, katy? >> i think even in this era of super pacs, outside groups that are slinging the negative stuff around it is very hard for the head of a campaign not to be held responsible if the campaign goes that way. and part of the problem for barack obama, if he is going to run on likeability, to be running as the guy throwing the attacks around undermines this. chris: if he goes on the attack, he looks like an attack dog? >> i do, exactly as katy just said, this is his likeability. this is his advantage, his persona. if he starts going really negative, i think that really detracts. chris: what does he do? >> they have to find surrogates to do it. if mitt romney has a sterling reputation and that bain wasn't that bad. chris: that happened at the end of the week.

clinton pulled a cory booker and said this guy is pretty good. >> the congress, the one argument that you can use to say, look, it looks very likely republicans are going to control the house and certainly do better in the sthafment do you really want to hand over all of the keys of government to one party that we know has become extremely radical or do you want me to be the moderating influence is, which is what clinton did in 1996, the moderating calm presence in the middle. >> the only way to do that is scare them about the opposite. john, you said the president would be right to go after and join the attack on the other side. he ought to be the other one warning them and it won't hurt them. >> i think this is a base election. this looks more like 2004 than 2008. the president has to motivate his base. he has to get his coalition turn out for him. the president's base reacts intensely when they think the president is being attacked unfairly. a race where there is so much negativity and i think there is going to be a lot of free passes

given. you're going to see romney very negative, obama really negative. for the president's voters, they see that as not being unlikable. they think he has a right to fight back for himself. chris: can he make, with the allies and donald trump and all of the past contacts, can the president make mitt romney scary? >> i think he can make the policies scary. i don't think the person. again, this is why a slight nuance here. i do think obama should aggressively attack the policy proposals, but not attack the person. chris: katy can he do that, make him scary? >> he can make the vision of what america might be under president romney seem scary to spaks and women -- hispanics and women. >> i do think that mitt romney is scared about being portrayed that way. they came out with a new video talking about his wife and her illness and really touching

effectively, you know, emotional parts of it. >> in the middle. electorate, if you look at under the independent voters in swing states, they think they are to the right of barack obama. they think they are closer to mitt romney than to barack obama. they think their furthest way from republican trickledown, republican social issues, all of that stuff. if you can make mitt romney own the republican brand -- chris: you think they can do that, culture and economics and everything? >> you look at the positions he took during the primaries, they're going to freeze him like a bug in amber. chris: for a change of pace and a change of continent, it's the queen's diamond jubilee. her distinguished 60 years on the throne, three years short of victoria's reign they have saved the british monarchy. her own family maybe a challenge. the marital problems of charles and diana, fergie and andrew all drove her to proclaim this in her annual address to parliament in 1992. >> 1992 is not a year on which i

shall look back with undiluted pleasure. it has turned out to be a horrible year. >> when diana was killed five years later, the people's grief was at first a trial for the queen herself. it was portrayed in that great film "the queen" with helen mirren playing elizabeth responding to tony blair's criticism that she wasn't mourning enough. >> i doubt there is no one that knows the british people more than i do mr. blair nor has greater faith in their wisdom and judgment. it is my belief that they will any moment reject this mood which has been stirred up by the press in favor of a period of restrained grief and sober private mourning. that's the way we do things in this country, quietly with

dignity. that's what the rest of the world has always admired us for. chris: she has been the object of ridicule, good natured as in this b.b.c. comedy. >> i'm speaking to you today from the 10th robing room where i keep many of my queenly treasures. my sonic septemberor, my balloon clown for use for children at parties, and my magic mirror for telling me who is the fairest in the land. still me! [laughter] chris: the grander story is what she truly means to britain as commentate ors are noting this weekend and last spring at the royal wedding. listen to the commentary as she emerged from the palace. >> the queen with this nation, the servants of the nation and a wonderful example of how to live in the difficult life of

monarchy with such charm and distinction. chris: when we come back, as you heard, the queen has given her country spunk. dwight eisenhower's administration, she has been the constant picture of britain plus "scoops and predictions" from the notes of these great reporters. be right back.

chris: welcome back. as you can see, we're enjoying some tea here to celebrate the 60 years of queen elizabeth's reign. princess elizabeth of the house of windsor became queen when her father gorge died young. the 26-year-old new queen rushed back from her royal trip to kenya. elizabeth was crowned in the midst of britain's post war

recovery. she reigned through the delivente empire and the independence of most of its colonies with prosperity and also deposition at home and an increasingly changing population. britain's leading historian rights in "newsweek" this week that when elizabeth was crowned, she pledged herself to hand over her life to the role of national matriarch so a nation might endure. so katy, match that. i guess the great old churchill war poster was keep calm and carry on. is that what she symbolizes? >> you see signs in london that say panic and freak out. part of the reason we love her is because of her steadiness and that clip from the movie of "the queen" with helen mirren is dead right. the queen was right that it is not in the english nature to be overly emotional and sentimental and massively expressive and have these huge swings. we are a fairly kind of oppressed steady nation. the queen has some affinity for

her people because of that. chris: do you feel governed by that instinct over here? >> not particularly governed by it. i think she makes us feel special. in this time she has presided over 12 american presidents and 11 british prime ministers, a huge amount of change, but the queen somehow symbolized british specialness. david cameron said this week he getting a lot of information from the queen during his weekly meetings, do you believe it? >> oh, yeah. she has talked to every prime minister since churchill. she knows and has had a lot of experience. i think that the remarkable thing about england and the monarchy is the role of women in it, that the three greatest british monarches, elizabeth, victoria, and elizabeth have lasted longer than all of the men and they have all shown this remarkable sort of tenacity, this female tenacity. chris: thatcher as well? >> thatcher was a political figure.

the great thing about the monarchy is the head of state is not a political figure. she represents human beings. chris: i put them all in the same bag as an american. >> and had is why britain's monarchy is superior in many ways than the american presidency. the system works because you have, you channel all of your patriotism into this person, into this family. you don't have polarization. >> i have had experiences just with moments with the queen when she was here and also over there and one of the things that is not well known about her is that, look, this woman has traveled the globe and has met every head of government, every head of state since 1953 and she absorbs all of this information. so when you were talking about the advice she gave to david cameron, she gives not just political advice, she understands foreign policy. she is a very, very smart woman

aside from all of the symbolic virtues. chris: sarah palin was right when she said game change, running england? >> you can quite simon all you want. you should be quoting the historian from the sex pistols, god safe the queen, she is not a human being. chris: thank you whatever that was. "scoops and predictions" from the notebook of these top reporters. tell me something i don't know. we'll be r here you go little man.

[ humming ] [ babbling ]

the cheerios bandit got you again? [ both laugh ] ♪ the one and only, cheerios ...and now... you! [ giggles ] ♪ the one and only, cheerios

chris: welcome back. john, tell me something i don't know. >> i have a double barreled john edwards prediction. the first is the government will not attempt to retry john edwards. the second he is likely to have a significant career in public life or service as to end up in a san tearum. >> which is more likely? >> san tearum. >> russia, vladmir putin, speaking of scary stuff. president obama thinks he can cut a deal and have a relationship and at the summit they can work with each other. the fact is that hillary clinton and others are taking a look at the arms deliveries to syria just in the past week and are saying that russia is the obstacle. russia is the problem. it's a lot closer to what mitt romney said about russia being adversarial -- chris: on that front. >> on syria. >> katy. >> one of the hottest tips to run for the vice presidency for the republicans is rob portman,

a senator from ohio. if he does so, than the obama campaign will paint him as the man who turned surpluses into deficits in his role as trade representative. chris: that is a concern. you have to play defense then instead of offense. >> cardinal doland is in big trouble. it's been revealed by the "new york times" that he authorized payoffs of $20,000. chris: the cardinal from new york who was once the archbishop of milwaukee. >> have been revealed in the "new york times" has authorized payoffs to child rapists priests about $20,000 to expedite the process of their defrocking. that's bad enough. the real thing is that he said at that time that those accusations were preposterous and unjust. chris: is there a problem with getting the priests out of the business of parish work, even if the dollars 20,000 puts them on the way for their health care? >> i think canyon law should be junked when you have a child rapist.

go to civil law, call up the cops and get them arrested. chris: when we come back, is it risky for barack obama to keep blaming george w bush for things? we'll be right back.

chris: welcome back. president obama welcomed george w bush back to the white house for the unveiling of his official portrait the other day. he gave him a little dig. >> the months before i took the oath of office was a chaotic time. we knew our economy was in trouble, our fellow americans were in pain. george, you went out of your way to make sure that the transition to a new administration was as seamless as possible. >> which brings us to this week's big question, is the president risking trouble if he keeps doing things like that, pointing to w, john? >> i don't think he is pointing at w. he is pointing to the financial crisis. i think that the obama people want to always remind people of the depth of the hole that the president inhabited.

people know that, they need to be reminded. >> that was a graceless moment considering what else was going on there. >> yeah, you be is unlikely to have george w sitting in front of him again. he has to carry him. it's a good trump card to play. >> it is bush's fault. all of it is. >> thanks to a great roundtable. john heilemann, andrea mitchell, katty kay and andrew sullivan. that's the show. thanks for watching. before we go, i have to give congratulations to our michael and sarah on the birth of our first grandchild. there she is, julia matthews and there is the whole family is together. i am lucky, so lucky. we'll be seeing you here next i am lucky, so lucky. we'll be seeing you here next week. fiber one. almost tastes like one of jack's cereals. uh, forgot jack's cereal. [ jack ] what's for breakfast? uh, try the number one! i've never heard of that. [ wife ] it's great. it's a sweet honey cereal, you'll love it. yeah, this is pretty good.

are you guys alright? yeah. [ male announcer ] half a days worth of fiber. not that anyone has to know. fiber beyond recognition. fiber one.