like the droid 4 now just $99.99. verizon. felicidades ! >> this is "the chris matthews show." >> ask not what your country can do for you. >> tear down this wall. >> i can hear you. >> the time for change has come. chris: too soon to change? obama's had just four years. that's after eight years of republicans. hifment says it's too soon for voters to switch from the democrats after going to them. a top political numbers guy says to watch economic growth. the closer it grows to 4% the better for the president. the closer to zero the worse it is. what's 2.5% going to get him? go, headlinery, go. she's been first lady, u.s. senator from new york, american secretary of state. will she end her career on third base or with everyone looking, break for home? oh, yeah. does an obama win this fall

make it more likely? does an obama loss make it easier for her to win? hi, i'm chris matthews. and welcome to the show. with us today, hdnet's dan rather. "the washington post's" nia-malika. and "the washington post's" kathleen parker. and politico's john harris. first up, barack obama versus mitt romney. will come down to conditions surrounding the election next fall. both sides know it's going to be close. we're going to look at three different historic predictors today. here's one historic formula. we're calling it the party change rule. when the white house changes hands as it did when barack obama took over from republican george w. bush, that's a strong predictor for re-election. in fact, president obama lost, he would be the -- only the second president in 100 years to lose after controlling the white house had switched parties when he came in. the first and only one, jimmy carter. that's a strong predictor. you only have four years, people say that tends to be only the start of your presidential career. they don't tend to want to dump you. >> i'm not much of a believer in these kind of predictors.

but if one is, what's different about this time around is with jimmy carter was a case of the electorate a charismatic new republican on the scene. now, there's a lot good to be said about mitt romney. but for many people, he hags the charisma of a -- he hags the charisma of a carat. so he may develop it as the campaign goes along. but the other thing, why i think president obama is particularly vulnerable is the extreme distaste to put it mildly that so many people have for him. republicans and people on the right. and that may lead over into the independents and swing voters who are going to decide this election in the fall. right now, i would put president obama as no better than even money and if the republican candidate is mitt romney he will be very tough to beat. >> it's always about when they switch parties, it's because whatever has happened has been so abomb international that they got to switch -- abiminal

that they got to switch and change directions and the next candidate is precisely the opposite of the one before. you couldn't find a more different president than president obama to contrast with george w. bush. chris: right. >> and so governor romney, whether he can present that stark contrast is of course the big question. if obama's favelt is low, the gallup -- favorability is low e. the gallup poll is 50%, he has a problem. chris: what do you make of the historic predictor? it's not that we like divided power. we like the power of rotating the parties every eight years. >> i'm with dan. i'm a real skeptic of these formulas and there's a tendency to think of them as having a mystical power or you can look at politics as though it's a mathematical -- chris: like -- >> the reason you have these trend that it's hard to knock out an incumbent or your state, pennsylvania, where they tend to go in eight-year periods, it doesn't have anything to do with some kind of mechanical formula and everything to do with human nature. people are inclined to give somebody a president the benefit of the doubt all things

being equal. the only teams they're not equal is when people make a judgment, this is terrible. i'm not going to give a c or an incomplete. i'm giving an f to this person. and what's more, i consider the alternative better. it takes very special circumstances to overcome that basic human nature of look, give the guy a chance. chris: what do you think of the independents as well? for them to say don't give him a chance they're like saying i made a mistake personally last time. in their voting. >> you've seen mitt romney making this argument that obama has been a failure. that he deserves an f. but it will come down to these independents. and you do think that in some ways, the white house isn't going to want a vati where they want a referendum on 2010. and so in some ways, there had been a shift in 2010 where the republicans came in, the tea party came in, and they had their shot. and it will be like bringing up the specter of george bush, too. chris: we can agree on the power of the economy. let's look at this other

indicator, "the new york times," came up with in rule which looks at presidential polls a year before the election. he took president obama's job approval, 43% last fall as a baseline. and looked at 2012, gross domestic product. as the variable. the economy. the strength of the economy. the size of it. if g.d.p. is just zero this year, and there's a flat economy, nate silver gives obama a 17% chance of re-election. flat economy this year. if g.d.p. goes up 4% a stronger -- a landslide victory of over 60%. >> it's not a mechanical exercise. as though you can plot it op an x and y axis with economic growth here, re-election there. you can't do it. voters have -- the economy is very important to their judgment. but they base it more impressionistically on what's the direction of the country. how do i particularly feel? how -- what do i see and hear about my -- from my neighbor? >> if they're not feeling it in their personal lives, no matter what the indicators say, they're going to say -- >> more spending. people are buying clothes. more people are buying cars. that's what the indicators

show. chris: that would be the g.d.p. going up. here's our third predictor. the gallup job approval. i think we're -- i'm almost positive we will agree on this. the gallup rule says presidents with job approval over 50% in the june of the election year usually get second terms. and those under 50% do not. nia, maybe that's the definitional. but 50% is the rule we use in politics. if this candidate -- this incumbent ain't got 50%, going into a re-election, we only say that's a sign of trouble no matter what. who is running against them. >> i don't know that he's been at 50% for a while and been at 47%, 46% and won the election by 53% they very much know it's going to be a very, very close recollection. -- election and in all likelihood it wouldn't be a blowout. he won 22 to 28 states last time. 10 million votes. i don't think they're saying that sort of election. chris: george e w. only 48% going into october, not just june. >> as it turned out he had a weaker-than-expected democratic opponent. which if you want to see

president obama's viewpoint, even if he's below 50%, that mitt romney's standing, his popularity is very low for a leading republican candidate at this stage. i think what is going to happen in the fall, that you said a very important word. the direction of the country. the country senses how it's going. and american presidential elections are about where the country's going. not where the country's been. and if the republicans keep attacking where we've been, in terms of president obama, that will leave him an opportunity to take a reaganesque rule of being optimistic. let me talk to you about the future. that's where this battleground will be. i'm not saying mitt romney can't pivot and take that ground himself but that's one way too look at the election. how the country feels about the direction and not whether unemployment figures are this, that or the other or g.d.p. and put 10 people under a street light in milwaukee and get them to define g.d.p. >> exactly. >> or around this table.

chris: and let me ask you about that. romney as an opponent. is he as weak as john kerry was after the blitzkrieg against him with the swift boating? >> weak in many of the same ways. in that all the things that john kerry thought were his assets, the things that he was going to run on as president, were turned into liabilities. we saw that with kerry and we're seeing it with romney. he thought he was running on his business record and we see him as a financial manipulator and someone who was indifferent to human consequences of his decisions. we thought he was a solid, attractive guy. well, he looks like a game show host. he's got to get -- regain control of his narrative. chris: and dan, history, what does it teach us, putting this together? history or a phenomenal situation here? >> i wouldn't say phenomenal situation. but a unique situation as nearly every presidential race is. but this will be -- let's -- race will be a factor in this presidential campaign. yes, the country can feel good about we elected a person of color. which i did not expect to see

in my lifetime. but race will be a factor. in this. and the fact that the economy is in this strange position of it seems to be doing better. but everybody has this sense that it's more volatile than we know. it's fragile. that we know. and in the end, you know, chris, i'm a great believer, people vote their pocketbooks. >> i don't know that i see race as a factor. to the extent that those people who would vote against president obama because he's african-american were going to vote against him anyway. so i don't know that that is something you can quantify in terms of the outcome. >> i think in some ways, the way race might play a role, and i think you're right. the people who don't like obama because he's black or they think he's knowledge -- he's the other. they're not going to support him. and i think if superpax, if fox news, is -- if they hint at that sort of language, i think it's going to turn into -- independents off from republicans. i think that's the danger that republicans and people from the far right play is going to be a

blowback because women especially, i think, they do -- take some pride in this idea that their kids are growing up in this country with an african-american president. chris: that's so interesting how the gender thing works. there's a fairness thing for women, too. john. >> a long time in this country before race is not a subtext in any national election. but i don't think it's going to be the dominant text. romney, obama has a record, and people are going to respond to that record. that's going to be the main factor. chris: before we break, hillary clinton has been one key to barack obama's strong record in foreign policy of course. and imagine how much trouble he might have been in now if he had been vulnerable when that area of national security. but she's leaving after this election of course. will she run for president next time? that's hard to predict of course. but also hard to imagine democratic politics in this country and any politics in the world without the clintons in it. here's how saturday night live envisioned their staying power. way back when hillary was actually a favorite for the 2008 nomination. >> good evening, my fellow

americans. a little more than a year from now, you the american people will go to the polls and elect me president of the united states. i want you to know i will be humbled and honored by the trust you will have placed in me. now, in 2016, when i will have completed my second term as president, and will thus be inhe will eligible to run again -- ineligible to run again, unless the slaw changed and it really is a strange law. >> i totally agree. that law makes absolutely no sense in the 21st century. >> bill -- >> what? i'm agreeing. chris: it's unbelievable. and when we come back, we will look at hillary clinton's stake in november's election. this election, would it be better for her in 2016 for obama to win? or to lose? let's calculate that. plus scoops and predictions right out of the notebooks of these top reporters. be right back.

>> when that day arrives, and a woman takes the oath of office as our president, we will all stand taller, proud of the values of our nation, proud that every little girl can dream big and that her dreams can come true in america. chris: welcome back. that was of course hillary clinton at her concession to barack obama four years ago. her standout job as secretary of state has set her up for a run next time of course. but is she better off if barack obama loses this fall? we put it to the matthews meter. this big question, 12 of our regulars, eight say yes, she's better off if obama loses this fall. four say she's better off if he's in there as the incumbent. so she wouldn't have to be running against a republican in

2016. kathleen, this is a question that must have come to the minds of the clintons as they consider these questions. >> do you think? chris: might have been. do you think hillary clinton would be more likely to run and more likely to win both if this president is re-elected? let's go positive here. >> if he's re-elected, will she run or will she have a chance of winning better? chris: both questions. >> hillary clinton first of all, i want so much for her to have a nice little break and catch up on her rest because she's done a fantastic job. if she randa, against mitt romney, i think she would win. i can't tell you how many women on both sides. i'm talking about republican women who would rally for hillary clinton. they admire her. they respect her. they're proud of her and put her in there. chris: 2016. >> 2016, she's going to be 68 years old. i don't know if she would want to run then. i really just don't. we clearly have a different standard for men and women. when it comes to age. chris: you think? >> i do. i absolutely do. i don't think 68 is considered old for a man. but -- chris: she will be 69.

younger than reagan when he ran. >> that's right. chris: let's go women first on this one. she would be the first woman president if she ran and won. >> she would be. but i do think campaigns are often about -- always about the future and not the past. and there's no one who embodies the past like hillary clinton. that would be -- chris: better off or worse off if obama is re-elected? >> better off if he isn't re-elected. yeah. because -- i'm with that. and i do think she's 68 and doesn't look like a person who wants to go through this gauntlet again of running for national office. and let's remember, she didn't run a fantastic campaign. chris: how many people set up for third base in american politics when they've been american secretary of state, senator from new york, first lady, and then to say i'm staying at third, that's all i want? >> not many people do. here's one thing to think about. chris: the clintons. . >> one thing to think about with hillary clinton. she was on the cover of "look" magazine you guys will remember it. and the audience won't. that was in 1969. three years before she met bill

clinton. my point in that being hillary clinton was ambitious. she had a sense of her trajectory. and other people who looked at her, similarly had a sense of her trajectory and her destiny. decades ago. somebody like that, i don't think gets to a certain age and says you know what? i'm done. time to coast. if she sees an opportunity she will take it. chris: put this all together. i'm not her advisor but i would say with kathleen said and what we're saying it all fits together. take year off. just relax. get in shape. enjoy life. get some fresh air. get all this office out of your head. >> yeah. chris: and then decide. that's a pretty reasonable thing to do. >> well, i suspect that's what she has in mind. chris: dan? >> well, one, i don't think it's better for hillary clinton's chances if she wants to run in 2016 that obama loses. i might be in the minority on that. i think an obama victory would be better for her. chris: better -- >> better, taking on an incumbent republican president,

wouldn't like her chances. two, i do think she probably doesn't know whether she wants to run. where ahead of ourselves a bit. while i do not think it probable, we haven't played out this election year yet. if things are close in august, does barack obama work out some arrangement where he says i want you to run on the ticket with me as my vice-presidential candidate? i emphasize i'm not predicting that will happen. but strange things happen in politics. and needs her to campaign for him this year? she can't campaign as secretary of state and her time is not up until january. will she request to help campaign? all these are out there. but one, yes, i think she would like to be president. two, all of the things being equal, i think she will run in 2016. and be hopeful. i don't think it would be her benefit for barack obama to lose. chris: let's go to the big guy, bubba. let's ask about him. because he is player here, mr. bill clinton, most interesting guy maybe around this planet. does bill clinton want her to run and basically end the clinton era with her as president of the united states, the first woman, wouldn't that be a tremendous plus for him and history?

>> i think he does want her to run. i think he thinks she would be a great president. and i think it would transform the clinton legacy. instead of being a flamboyant colorful fascinating figure from the 1990's, you would instead look at the clintons as a dynasty that had two pillars that basically spanned 30 or 40 years. chris: and the ultimate validation of him. >> that's right. chris: as well as her. when we come back, scoops and predictions out of the must be nice, cheering on team usa from the shallow end.

back in '08, we didn't have these u-verse wireless receivers that let you move the tv around wherever. no siree, bob. who's bob? and if you didn't have a tv outlet, well then you couldn't watch diddly-squat. you talk a lot. you have no idea how good you have it. that's not working.

[ grunts ] [ male announcer ] get a wireless receiver in time for the olympic games. get u-verse tv for $25 a month with free hd for six months. rethink possible. chris: welcome back. dan, something different this

week, we're looking at the political future and done the who will program and what rising stars we've all seen out there. somebody who is a democrat, somebody who is a republican that you have spotted for the future. >> well, martin o'malley the governor of maryland. certainly someone for the future. mark udall out in colorado. a great family name. i would keep an eye on him. on the republican side, scott brown in massachusetts, if he wins this senate race, which would be a tough race, he's not often mentioned. but why not? marco rubio in florida. >> the governor of nevada, brand sandoval, he's mexican. and he might be one who would make this v.p. short list for romney if he's the nominee. and in terms of democrats, the attorney general out in california, harris, someone who has talked about if -- chris: i met her on a plane ride. she's great. that's how we meet people. >> speaking of the 2016 election year, we have -- republican party has a very deep bench.

there are a lot of rising stars. chris: i agree with that. >> relatively young. chris: more so than the democrats. >> marco rubio, you got nikki haley governor of south carolina. bobbie jindal of louisiana. -- bobby jindal of louisiana. the horrible response to the state of the union and a brilliant guy and has a bright future and young. and you have chris christie. there are a lot of republicans coming up. chris: christie has the northeast attitude that works with people. john harris. >> paul ryan fascinates me because he is the only republican who speaks with credibility to both wings of the republican party. the tea party wing and the establishment wing. and it's basically somebody that can help republicans make a -- generational shift which they badly need to do. on the democratic side, a similar person making a generational shift, senator mark warner who shows that he's got real credibility at the center. -- if the ever does come back in washington which is questionable. he is indeed. chris: is he presidential? in his own mind? >> there's no question. chris: when we come back, the

big question of the week, will americans decide for barack obama or mitt romney well ahead of this election day or at the last minute? be right back. graduate, now that your journey begins,

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no way. yes way. well let me chip in. [ male announcer ] send money from one bank account to another, with citibank popmoney. easier banking. every step of the way. chris: welcome back. this week's big question for us, will voters decide between barack obama and mitt romney well ahead of the election or at that last minute -- last weekend? dan rather. >> i'm a believer in the shift over the last week jebbed and even on election day. -- weekend and even on election day. when most people make up their minds. chris: volatility. >> i think maybe 10%, 15% will go down to the last minute. chris: will it close at the end? >> they'll look close. and you'll have some movement on the -- not a lot is my sense. >> i have to -- i believe in the last minute. i think the independents, primarily, will be looking at circumstances that very last week. and they'll make their decision. chris: good for us. that's good for us. keep them guessing. >> the first of the three fall

debates, the first of the three fall debates will essentially bake it in, an absence of something real happening. the trajectory is set by then. chris: i'm convinced mitt romney can win at least one of the debates, maybe more. this is going to be a tough set of debates for the president who isn't training like romney is. and thanks for a great roundtable. dan rather, nia-malika henderson, john harris and kathleen parker. see you back here next week.