[captioning made possible by nbc universal] >> this is "the chris matthews show." >> ask not what your country can do for you. >> tear down this wall. >> i can hear you! >> a time for change has come. >> saving private ryan, launched from a battleship, paul ryan's own plan to privatize medicare ignited a war. team romney said they saw it coming but this fast? medicare has been a campaign mainstay since the 1990's. now paul ryan, a candidate into house.te four more beers, president obama is tapping into american's love of libation and revealed this week that the white house has been home brewing, even had a few on his bus out in iowa, a way to paint the president as more joe six pack next to rigid romney.

blame for rain? the president can't control the weather but when asked to describe economic conditions like a weather report, everyone, in a new focus group, gave a stormy forecast, even one predicting an earthquake, tsunami. can president obama convince them the sun will come out tomorrow? hello there. chris is away. i'm chuck todd, welcome to the show. with us today, howard fineman with "the huffington post," nbc's kelly o'donnell, "new york time's" helene cooper and national journey's major garrett. welcome, all. it's not your regular august, now, is it? first up, mitt romney picked paul ryan to shake up the race into a campaign about big ideas but two men known for discipline found themselves knocked off message a bit. an unforced error when they couldn't explain the daylight between medicare plans. both parties have demagogued this issue over the years, whether bill clinton's ads against bob dole, or more recently, republican attacks against democrats in the 2010

midterm election. when mitt romney brought out the white board thursday to clarify his plan, he was baited back into talking about his own tax returns. >> i did go back and look at my taxes and over the past 10 years, i never paid less than 13%. >> the obama campaign was quick to respond. "since there is substantial reason to doubt his claims, we have a simple message for him, prove it." howard fineman, calling mitt romney a liar on this? >> they don't believe him. >> are they succeeding in keeping the story going? >> the obama campaign will keep trying. before the paul ryan selection, that was topic a for several days, if not weeks, mitt romney's taxes and the obama campaign strategy is to paint mitt romney as a guy that doesn't understand mainstream america and barack obama does. >> major, that has been the larger reason why they do this

week, we know considering we are coming close to the conventions. romneys are being stubborn about this, saying we are not doing it, we are not releasing any more but you wonder, should he have given more information because then it does lead to more questions. >> the romney campaign says this is a distraction. my experience, all of our experience in presidential politics, voters decide what is or isn't a distraction, candidates don't. if you don't want think it's a distraction, guess what, you have to deal with it. >> he is now responsible for dribbling out information about his own tax records under pressure from not just the obama campaign but senate majority leader harry reid and i was in chicago talking to obama officials and they could not have been more delighted with harry reid jamming it in mitt romney's ear saying, i bet you didn't pay any taxes. it is belved that whatever the truth is, it's worse than this constant discussion.

>> helene, we are going to talk about focus groups later and believe it or not, tax returns shows up in all the focus groups. voters are hearing this. it has sort of generically hurt romney. the romneys don't want to do this. you get the feeling his aides would love to release it and get it out of the way? >> the one thing the obama people keep saying is there has to be a reason why he hasn't released the tax returns and that's starting to resonate with voters, as well. the longer this goes on and as far as the obama campaign is concerned, they'd love for it to go on until election day. >> do you feel it's getting to an expiration date? >> i think so, don't you? >> the cayman islands, bermuda. >> that's one year of tax returns. democrats look at 10 years. >> the romney folks think, i get to the convention, they'll move on. >> and he really opened himself up. this is why candidates don't like taking questions in some circumstances because he had in

a previous interview said, i'll go back and look and someone followed up and said, did you look and he didn't -- he gave us a number. no less than 13% and he will have to provide another full report of what he paid for 2011. they've only does the estimate so far. it's due october 15 and so there will be another return. >> 32 percentage points lower than what people supposedly in his income bracket. i want to move on to the other development of the week, the war of words. mitt romney sharpened his words this week, accusing the president of violating the principles of his own campaign. >> his campaign and surrogates have made wild and reckless accusation that is disgrace the office of the presidency. so, mr. president, take your campaign, the division, the anger and hate back to chicago and let us get about rebuilding and reuniting america!

>> i guess the first question i had in listening, i was trying to figure out, real outrage or full outrage? >> i think faux. >> i do think faux. in part because mitt romney ran a primary campaign against republicans. scorched earth. >> that was scorched earth so if he really has a tender soul about the nature of american politics, he didn't exhibit it in iowa, south carolina and florida. i think what's going on here is one of president obama's big advantages, even with a bad economy, is the fact that people like the guy. they think he's a decent guy. they don't think he necessarily's done a great job but he's a good man. >> mitt romney is under no illusion he's going to be loved but he wants to pull barack obama down. >> is he succeeding? >> he's trying to. the romney campaign wants to deprive the president not just partially but entirely of any of

the dramatic and inspiring 2008 -- whatever's left of it -- take that off the table but as he does that he's losing the economic argument or losing the opportunity to take advantage of the economic argument against the president. >> is the obama campaign nervous about this negativity, that it could start eroding? they had capital to give but do they have any more? >> it's so funny because i was on the bus tour this week with obama throughout iowa and on tuesday, as you know, he was using the schamus the dog argument, like poking fun at mitt romney, schamus the dog through the roof. and tuesday evening romney came without that very angry, which obama people call unhinged. >> biden's comments when he was implying shackle on wall street.

put you back in chains. >> to a mostly black audience. >> mostly african-american audience. >> but on wednesday, obama took the schamus the dog thing out of his bag of tricks in iowa and it almost seemed as if he was trying to lower the temperature a little bit. >> one of the things we were supposed to be having a conversation on this week is on medicare and we've had a large conversation on medicare. president, now up with his first attack on it but it's a response ad. the romney/ryan folks have decided we are going to own it. >> i think going on offense is something that whether they were fully in themselves -- trying to grab on to that rollercoaster as it goes over because they need to make this case, if you're going to be beaten up for it anyway, try to make it a virtue, try to make it something they can talk about, knowing it is unpopular in many places but being able to say it's related to taking responsible steps. you hear things like adult

conversation. you have john boehner telling nervous house republicans, stay on offense, too. >> they're not trying to have an adult conversation. what the republicans are trying to do is stick the $700 billion "cut" which is the same thing they have in their own budget but worked in 2010 to some extent. by the way, the obama campaign had to put on what was essentially a defensive ad in new hampshire about it. >> both of these guys are trying to turn these political vulnerabilities into assets. obama's doing the same thing with obama care. he started this week now talking about the healthcare, yeah, the republicans have called it obama care forever and now he's embracing that. it's obama care because i care. it's so interesting. >> i don't think either side really necessarily wanted to have this debate in this way. >> but here we are, one weekend and it's medicare, medicare, medicare. i don't want talk about -- one weekend, is paul ryan a help or not, historically v.p. nominees

lift the apart's ticket by four points but i think the bump issue is gone these days, according to gallup. romney only gained a point after the ryan announcement. we put it to the matthews meter. 12 of the regulars, has paul ryan been a net plus or minus for mitt romney in his first week on the ticket. seven said plus, five said minus. by the way, some of that split is here. kelly, you are with the majority. howard and helene, you're with the minority. kelly? >> i'll say plus because he appears to energize romney and make romney better when they appear together. when you look at all the negatives, part of what paul ryan brings is an articulate spokesman on important issues, a bit of the youth factor and those are things that appear to make romney look better as a candidate. you said net minus, why? >> close question but i think several days of not talking about the economy, which is

what's happened -- >> several weeks. >> several more days are not good news for mitt romney. >> they're fighting for independence, the small sliver of independent voters and paul ryan's not going to get that for them. >> i would say narrow minus because the demographic disadvantages he puts into the campaign that weren't there before and introduces entitlements which is something romney has to own now. >> i'm in the narrow plus this week. but i'm with you, i think there's a potential to be narrow minus because of the florida situation. how's that for a hedge? we often say these elections come down to which candidate we'd rather have a beer with. we don't all say that but a lot of you do. mitt romney doesn't drink. he said he once tasted beer as a wayward teenager and never did it again. president obama had no such

inhibitions and this past week at the iowa state fair, he talked a lot about beer. >> everybody, who's over 21, you got to buy a beer. huh? >> is it on you? >> let me see how much i have in my wallet. >> you can stimulate the economy. >> four more beers! four more beers! >> four more beers? here's what i'm going to do. here's what i'm going to do. except for the person with the romney sign -- i'm teasing -- i'm going to buy 10 beers. who wants one? >> on the same swing in iowa, the president revealed he had beers on his bus from a home brewery he's installed at the white house. the beer he drank, it's called "white house honey ale" with the

honey coming from the first lady's garden. who does president obama have to thank for this, for being able to home brew? it took the sober minded jimmy carter to reverse prohibition era laws against home brewing. billy carter marketed his own brand of beer, known as billy beer. >> billy carter became a national celebrity during his brother, jimmy's, 1976 presidential campaign. he took great delight in projecting the image of an irreverent red neck. in 1979, after more than 20 years of instead drinking, billy entered the long beach naval hospital for treatment of alcoholism. his two-fisted drinking days were over. >> i have been drinking coke and milk and soft drink and i found out water can be drunk straight.

>> i once found a six pack of billy beer in my parents' house after my dad died. i sold it for $25 at a garage sale. when we return, earthquakes, tsunamis, a few of the words undecided voters use to describe economic conditions. can president obama win back their votes with a sunnier forecast and scoops and predictions.

>> what kind of a tree are you? you do think you're a tree? >> i hope i'm not an elm. >> we had to do this. her eventual answer was oak. but that's the question that catherine heparin that got walters mercilessly mocked. in a razor close election, many

pollsters like to ask groups of undecided voters what they think of different things. one republican pollster did this there their focus group, if the president were a car, what kind of car would he be? the answers ran the gam gamut. one was positive like volvo because they're known to be safe. one person gave mercedes as an answer because he "likes to spend and spend and spend" and there was the ford unfocus because one voter said he says a lot of things but doesn't back them up. >> i'm putting him in the chrysler from detroit because of the auto bailout and chrysler has these ads now with this gravelly voice saying this is how we make cars in detroit and they show the street scenes in and that's the image the president is trying to project. >> what would you have? >> i put obama in a saab.

i definitely would put him in a european car. >> i put him in a bulletproof, sound-proof, poison proof bad -- limousine. when you're president, there's all the advantages. >> his last personal car was the ford escape hybrid and he previously had the chrysler. >> i put him in the chevy volt because if it works, that's his whole theory of the economic case, it's g.m. >> mitt romney would put him in a chevy volt. >> mitt romney would wish he was in a rambler. he loves his dad's rambler. any fun ideas for romney and cars? >> he mentioned it, cadillacs. >> he said it. >> he drives a mustang but you could say rambler or pacer. >> any of them in a european car. >> i would put romney in a lexus. he can't be in anything from

detroit. >> romney is the buick roadmaster station wagon with all the kids. >> isn't there an elephant in the room right now? >> luggage roof rack. >> herbert hoover said the president gets credit for the sunshine and blamed for the rain. this week, democratic pollster asked a dozen milwaukee swing voters to describe the current economic conditions in the country with a weather word. >> rain. >> tsunami. >> overcast. >> earthquake. >> cloudy, overcast. >> overcast. >> stormy. >> stormy. >> kelly o'donnell, these were all -- most were obama voters in 2008. this was done in milwaukee, and, boy, all the economic was bad and it reinforces what you hear

and see. >> and people have such a visceral reaction, since you can't change the weather, you're just subject to it. and there was a real sense of the difficult time, not insurmountable, but certainly difficult. >> what counts is, do people think president obama holds a rain coat or umbrella for them or is shoving them out into this and conversely, do they think that about romney? >> when we return, scoops and predictions from the notebooks of these top reporters. tell me something i don't know. we'll be right back.

>> welcome back, howard fineman, tell us something we don't know. >> the justice department has a big decision on its hands, whether to try to indict sheldon addleson for money laundering or overseas influence both of which he's under investigation for right now. if they do it, it looks political. if they don't, he's off the hook. >> helene? obama tried out the schamus the dog line this week, this past week in iowa. the campaign has been holding that in the bag for several months. you should have seen him when he first did it. beside themselves. >> a quiet romney transition is in the works where there are people coming from boston to capitol hill to talk to 202-585-3835 -- republican lawmakers about if there's a romney win, what would they do legislatively. >> republicans will use the

president's, you didn't build that against him and at the republican convention and traveling heck hers in charlotte. >> when we return, the big question we put to these folks this week had to do with chelsea clinton. she teased she may try her hand at the family business.

>> we are suckers for this. chelsea clinton raised a few eyebrows this past wek when asked? she would try a turn at the family business. "before my mom's campaign, i would have said no. now i don't know." which powerhouse political family will see one of its own in office next, the clinton or the bushes? chelsea clinton works for nbc news as a special correspondent. hillary, chelsea, jeb or george

p.? >> i think it's a bush next. >> bush next. >> young george p., jeb's son, is already active. >> bush but also griffin, stewie in 2024. >> helene? >> no question about it, bush. >> why does nobody say hillary clinton who could run in 2016? that's my prediction. thanks to a great roundtable. howard fineman, kelly o'donnell, helene cooper and major garrett. that's the show. chris will be back next week with a special preview of convention week.