>> this is "the chris matthews show." >> ask not what your country can do for you. >> i can hear you. >> a time for change has come! >> the official kickoff days away, with the american presidency as the prize. who will seize the moment and make history? can romney rise above his awkwardness and captivate the country? will the president re-ignite the fury that carried him to the highest office? time after time, ever since jack kennedy's charismatic debut in the convention, he or his brothers have addressed the delegates. that's a span of 52 years. let's relive that history today. finally, read my lips. sometimes it's a single line in

the convention speech that spells doom down the road. goldwearks mondale and the first george bush learned that the hard way. will romney and obama avoid the trap? hi, i'm chris matthews. welcome to the show. with us today, abc's sam donaldson, nbc's kelly o'donnell, "the new york times"' helene cooper and "new york" magazine's john hileman. it's kickoff time. the conventions will be the biggest time yet to muster troops and reach millions at home. restless tea partyers probably won't get as bad as 1964, when barry goldwater delegates made things impossible for nelson rockefeller, chanting while he spoke, "we want barry." >> it's danger to the party. [crowd chanting "we want barry"]

>> well, four years later with the vietnam war the big story, riots outside the convention hall in chicago stole the spotlight from vice president hubert humphrey, who was saddled with lyndon johnson's war. he never recovered from those images in the chicago streets. sam, this is the old question of campaigns and conventions, especially conventions. what picture are you going to give to the country? here's the question for the democrats. ironically it's not too much noise and excitement, it's complacency, minorities, people who may not vote. how does he energize them? >> he's going to give the country bill clinton. he'll be the star of the democratic convention. how does barack obama repeat himself? third time. 2004, 2008, that guy? we've heard this before. >> doesn't he have to, to win? >> yes, in a sense of the my prediction is that he'll rise up. this president at the moment can be very flat, but when it really counts, think of the times he

can bring it out. i think we'll have harry truman there, harry truman obama. >> truman and clinton, that's quite a team. helene, at the white house, which you cover, are they optimistic about being able to keep the unhappy people, some of the unhappy people, we haven't gotten rid of git moe, the pure rifts, can he bring them all together again? >> i think he can. i think sam is right. when barack obama wants to turn it on, he can turn it on. i've been on the campaign trail with him for the better part of this summer, and he has been slowly ramping it up. they've been worried about him in so many of these states. they've been trial to reel these people back in. and there is some worry that at the end of the day this is a supreme president, who always thinks he can bring it home. chris: deep down people like him, center, center left then left.

here's the question -- does anybody really like romney? nixon, back in 1968, won a big election in 1968 without anybody liking him, but he was seen as a good instrument to win, a way to beat somebody they really don't like. will the conservatives ever get better than that with their attitude towards romney? >> because it relates to the question you're asking me, obama is a great fourth-quarter player. he's not that great in the first three quarters. the last quarter he's really good. that's the question for romney -- can he be a fourth-quarter player? he's had a bad summer. he had a rough time getting this nomination. the thing that has always been his strength is the combination of the fact that the republican base and much of the republican party hates president obama. they're animated by that. and the fact that they have seen him from the beginning as the person who is most likely able to beat obama. chris: an sthru. >> he's an instrument. but that may be enough in this party. croich let me ask you about this, kelly. there's a lot of people that

you've heard about through the summer, different kinds of elements. they don't really like romney. do they want to help or do they want him to lose? isn't there an element on the right, the tea party people, that would rather have their kind of candidate? and if they got romney, they got him for eight years? >> they have mainstream republicans who are on capitol hill, who are saying they were waiting to fall in love and now are more haplea in an arranged marriage with romney. if you talk about the more conservative and tea party elements you could make the case that if he were to lose it amplifies their point that he's a little more conservative and it also gives them another four years to be the loyal opposition. chris: where do they head now, rooting for him or against him? >> publicly they would support him. but if he were to lose they would have another act to play. chris: does it look good as a selling point on television,

hatred? hitler mustaches, the cameramen look for it in the crowd and they usually find it, the racist stuff that you can usually find somewhere. is that going to hurt? >> i don't know. a lot of people kind of hated me over the years and i still held the job. that's a comic way of answering the question. i think it was wrong and i think the republicans would be wise to try to conceal their visceral dislike for this man. not just his policies, not just the fact they think he hasn't been a very good president. all that is fair. but they viscerally want him out of there. where's his birth certificate? those kinds of people. chris: do you think it's worse than it was towards f.d.r. and bill clinton? >> f.d.r., i don't know. historically, the country saw him change things. chris: as for mitt romney, how does he deal with his shortcomings as an ortor? >> i may sometimes being a little awkward, but there's

nothing self-conscious in my love of country. what it all comes down to after all the shouting and the tears is a man at the desk and who should sit at that desk? my friends, i am that man. chris: kelly, that was an amazing moment down in new orleans. you weren't there, i don't think, yet. i was there. i was crying. i'm up in the bleachers watching this. i said, that's george bush. where did he come from? he came from peggy noonan, obviously. she wrote that amazing speech. can romney do that kind of thing? i'm a little yesterday, but you know what? i really love this country and i'll fight for it. >> they have similar sensibilities and you could see that that would be helpful for him if the speechwriters are paying attention now, to give him a chance to be self-deprecating, because then people do root for you more. one of the things that we certainly hear is that they want to obviously convey the

competence thing. that's been the story all along. giving a little bit of acknowledgment of some of the things that have not gone so well for him, without being too self-conscious about it, could be use fuffle. >> how could he do that? my wife drifings two vocks wag sens >> we're talking about a pictorial piece. chris: it could be self-deprecation. anything that makes him human. doesn't he have a bigger problem? he's been out in public life since the 19 0's running against ted kennedy. who is he? does he have to say yes, i have a minority religion, but yes, i'm a christian. doles he have to say yes, i care about my family? what does he have to say about who he is? >> there's two things that the romney campaign has not done, having kept the focus on barack obama. he's not talked about himself. he's very uncomfortable talking about the two things that matter most to him, his faith and making money. those are the things that have animated him and he's been very good and very potent about them.

the other is, what is his agenda for the country? what's his vision for america? i think there's no question they're going to fill in the second of those boxes. he's going to talk in a forward-looking way about what he wants to do as president. they haven't done that yet. how much they do on biography is the ultimate question. they're going to have to show the country more of who he is so people can get comfortable with him. chris: i think he'll channel reagan which might well work. as for the dems, barack obama is now the incumbent. his convention by definition won't have the charge, the electricity, that it had back when he was new and it probably won't even have the emotion of his debut when he gave the keynote in 2004, when he talked about his background, how his story could have only happened in this country. the effects led me to start that weekend show with this. chris: a star is born. his name is african. having come so far, can barack obama stop short of the white

house? well, actually, on live tv that week i said you just heard from the first african-american president back in 2004. but how does he re-excite the note that he hit when he first came on the scene? >> that's such a good question, although i'm still kind of stuck on the whole idea of you crying in 1998 in new orleans. chris: i think i'm well known to have strong emotions about politics. >> i think that's something that they are clearly grappling with. i think that's going to be an issue. he's not going to ever be able to re-create the level of emotion -- the emotional depth that we saw in 2008. that can't happen. but he is still trying to frame this as a historic presidency, and he's very well aware of that. i think you're going to see president obama really reaching. he's capable of it. whether he can pull it off or not -- i don't think you're going to see 2008, but -- >> the one thing that barack obama has always felt, there's no problem that can't be solved with a great speech. chris: that begs the question, who's going to have the best

convention, the most exciting, rock 'em, sock 'em, make a difference convention, the democrats or the republicans? >> i think the democrats may have it, because i think barack obama will come up. it's class warfare. when i say harry truman, he's going to pound away on this 1% versus the rest of it. chris: i think it's who's for you? >> the democrats going second gives them a big advantage to keep that momentum going. >> democrats, no question. look at barack obama's speech and mitt romney's speech. croich i like the way you do that -- chris: i like the way you do that. >> the stakes are higher for romney. chris: therefore, who has the best convention? >> who knows? if romney performs really well and is able to make people comfortable -- i think there's a chance the romney people could surprise us. chris: until ted kennedy's death in 2009, the kennedys brothers were the star attractions at almost all the democratic conventions, appearing in 12 of the last 14. it was at adlai stevenson's 1956

convention that jack kennedy became a national star, after narrowly losing his efforts to be chosen as stevenson's running mate, he was invited to introduce the nominee. >> i give you the man from liberty bell, the next democratic nominee and our next president of the united states, adlai stevenson! [cheers and applause] chris: just four years later it was jack kennedy's convention. listen to the themes we would later hear at his historic inaugural. >> the new frontier of which i speak is not a set of promises, it is a set of challenges. it sums up not what i intend to offer to the american people, but what i intend to ask of them. the new frontier is here whether we seek it or not. chris: after his brother's assassination, robert kennedys addressed the 1964 convention in

atlantic city eulogizing his brother and then doing what he needed to do. >> we must not look to the past, we must look to the future with the same effort, the same energy and the same dedication that was given to president john f. kennedy must be given to president lyndon johnson and hubert humphrey. chris: then in 180, teddy, the last brother, spoke to an adoring convention after he lost the challenge, his challenge to jimmy carter. >> for me a few hours ago this campaign came to an end. for all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives and the dream shall never die. chris: when we come back, what both obama and romney and their camps could learn from history, and especially what they know they have to avoid. plus, scoops and predictions. be right back.

chris: welcome back. both obama and romney will go into the conventions knowing they have to first do no harm. with so much riding on this moment in the sun on national tv, they can't trip up like some candidates have in the past. barry goldwater found out the hard way that what might excite folks in the hall might also sink your hopes in the fall. >> extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice. >> that also backfired on fritz mondale in 1984. >> mr. reagan will raise taxes, and so will i. he won't tell you. i just did. chris: that may be the first and last time a guy promised to do

you harm. i'm going to raise your taxes. what's obama -- how is he going to handle it? he is a populist. he is working against the rich and taxes. >> the country, by large margins, wants to see taxes raised on the rich. the president's team and their policy proposals are where the country is on that issue. what he has to avoid is coming off in any way sounding like he's deny grading the entrepreneurship of businesses. they've got to stay away from that, miles away. chris: you said earlier in the show that you think the harry truman populism works. >> that's true. he has the majority of americans by virtue of their income on his side. whether they'll vote for him is another thing. john is right about the points he made there. it doesn't work unless you really put everything into it. you've got to come out swinging. between now and election day people say it's going to get nastier. you're not kidding. it's going to get nasty, down,

dirty and hard. chris: people like fighters. >> people do like fighters and ever since that kansas speech president obama has been presenting this entire class warfare, sort of warfare that the campaign has been waging as a battle between -- for equality and for the american dream. that's what you're going to see him talking about when he gets to charlotte. >> and romney's advisors will say as much as we talked about biography, they want it to be about the middle class family more than his happy, successful, beautiful family. so there's a bit of a tug-of-war about how much biography and how much should it be about connecting to those voters who may like the president but aren't satisfied? that's really where this election is going to be decided. chris: do you think he's a loser for him letting it be known that he has a quarter of a billion dollars? >> he's so wealthy. but he is in a league that is really historic. so it is problematic, but he wants to try and make that proud

of working for it, and they have not told that story well enough. chris: when we come back, scoops and predictions right from the notebooks. and predictions right from the notebooks. tell me something i don't know. you can give in with dreyer's slow churned light ice cream. we churn it slowly for all the rich and creamy taste with just half the fat. so now you can have your ice cream and it eat it, too. a great clean doesn't have to take longer. i'm done. i'm gonna read one of these. i'm gonna read one of these! [ female announcer ] unlike sprays and dust rags, swiffer 360 duster's extender gets into hard-to-reach places without the hassle. so you can get unbelievable dust pickup in less time without missing a thing. i love that book. can you believe the twin did it? ♪ swiffer. great clean in less time. or your money back.

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we churn it slowly for all the rich and creamy taste with just half the fat. so now you can have your ice cream and it eat it, too. chris: welcome back. something a little different this week. a potential game-changing factor. a real game-changer that could upend things after p convention. don't count the debates. >> we blew out iran. well, israel blows out iran.

that's a game-changer. rally around the president. but what position does he and what position does mitt romney take on that? chris: yeah, because he gets credit for it. >> he gets credit in helping israel. we're not going to say to israel, how dare you. chris: kelly? >> the game-changers would be that unforeseen events, whether it's overseas or domestic, where you have to see in the moment, are they both on the same level for leadership? and the president, being president, has an advantage there, because the office gives him some of that. if romney were to look statesman-like, that could get him over the hump with people who want to see if he is presidential material. >> the game-changer is a national issue, but romney would probably be in more trouble than obama there. you look at syria and iran in particular. chris: why, because he's not as informed? >> because president obama has a fairly decent record at this point on national security and because he's presidential.

if something happens, it allows him to sit in the oval office, give an address to the nation and he has the trappings of the office that he can wrap himself around, whereas mitt romney would not. >> i'm going to discount the possibility of a martial invasion or a second finding and killing of osama bin laden. and all those that the panel brought up are at a high level could happen. i still think there's a chance that some crazy right wing republican billionaire is going to get an ad on the air that is going to be so shocking, so incendiary, so nasty, that it's going to dominate a week of news coverage and tip the field one way or another. chris: when we come back, the big question of the week -- will bill clinton upstage barack obama at the democratic convention? be right back. [ laughter ] [ girl ] wow. you guys have it easy.

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chris: welcome back. we've looked at great convention moments. one not so great moment was bill clinton's debut as keynoter. as nbc's chris wallace reported, he got very low marks for endless drone. >> clinton went on for 32 minutes instead of the scheduled 15. the crowd first tuned out and then things got out of hand. organizers flashed a red light on the podium and even put a message on the teleprompter, please, your time is up. but clinton kept talking, finally saying something the crowd approved of. in closing -- [cheers and applause] [laughter] chris: well, he made a complete recovery, obviously, which brings us to this week's big question -- this convention. will bill clinton, by his very presence, upstage president obama? sam? >> everyone put on shades and played the saxophone. chris: will he upstage him? >> no. chris: kelly? >> he will be talked about more,

but he won't upstage him. crip helene? >> no. chris: a wipeout for the big dog, for bubba, for elvis. thanks for a great roundtable, sam donaldson, kelly o'donnell, helene cooper, john hileman. that's the show. thanks for watching. see you back here next week. captioned by the national captioning institute --www.ncicap.org--