>> hi, welcome to "on the money." i'm becky quick. leadership from a man who knows, how jack walsh says you can get ahead in your job. >> one word, overdeliver. >> the markets take a breather this week. anything more than a pause? and why everyone seems to be nervous about china all of a sudden. plus, being green for st. patrick's day. we'll find out why irish whiskey may replace scotch as the drink of choice. and talk to the owner of an iconic irish bar. "on the money" starts right now. this is america's number one financial news program. on the money. now becky quick. here is a look at what is

making news as we head into a new week. the big chill in the u.s. economy may be fine. sales at retailers rose 0.3% last month. better than economists expected could show a rebound from a weather related midwinter swamp. retail sales are important. consumers make up 2/3 of the u.s. economy. a surprise selloff in the markets late this week, fears about china's economy to tensions in ukraine. whatever the cause the dow fell more than 200 points on thursday. that was the fourth consecutive down day. the markets continued to fall on friday. amazon may have some of the lowest prices around. it is raising its prices for amazon prime service. fee going up to $99, from $79. amazon prime allows for free shipping, streaming, borrowing of kindle books. the company blames the hike on rising fuel and transportation costs. it may be hard to believe, but an airline is offering something for nothing.

starting next month, united will let users watch movies and television shows for free on lap tops and apple ios devices. catch here you, have to download united app and watch through that. >> rough week on wall street. the economy may be getting out of the deep freeze. joining us to explain. joe lovorna. and adam parker. guys thanks for being here today. >> adam, let's talk about this. we are five years into a bull market. there have been some jitters this week. do you think the biggest concern is what's happening in china, in ukraine, with the economy here in the u.s.? what do you think? >> it is u.s. first. china second. emerging markets third. because there really, the order what impacts corporate earnings. i think we learned so far, since the trough five years ago, don't really panic on u.s. equities unless you're afraid earnings are going to decline a lot. >> we did see jitters, decline 6% based on emerging markets. could it gang up on us? >> a risk in that.

our view is that the market never goes down 10% or more. unless people are afraid of earnings recession. all of our work focuses on what could introduce volatility into the earnings estimates. that's not our base case. our base case is 8% earnings growth in the s&p this year. because you have generally an improving economy. that's our morgan stanley. >> joe, talk about that. the bad weather. that has people trying to figure out how much is bad numbers simply one off, and how much is a decline? . >> three off. really bad weather in december, january and february. and i have been a big bull on growth. i agree with adam's assessment of stouks and how they will behave. the argument about weather. evident in employment data. theorists ask people, did you have a job? yes. did you go to work because of bad weather? no. did you work part time because of bad weather? yes. in fact, in february, almost 7 million people could not work full time because of the weather.

so this isn't joe lovorna giving an excuse, data suggests weather was a factor which means there should be a big snap back at some point in the spring. >> just in terms of the bull run. how long would you expect? five years, getting long in the tooth? >> we at morgan stanley have been wondering if the cycle could last as long as 2020 this time. you didn't have a strong recovery off the bottom. more of a muted recovery. could last longer. the key feature. i think one of the big impacts. companies basically pushed out financial obligations three, four years at a minimum. very few companies in the s & p can go bankrupt in the next two or three years. they have borrowed money don't owe until 2017, 2018, 2019 t hard to make the top of the cycle call unless debt is due, has trouble refinancing or a collapse in earnings. not frothy on the cost. no debt due. cycle could last longer. >> business cycles do not die of

old age. equities typically do not peak until the next recession. look at profit margins. they peaked three to five years before a recession. so we could be in a period where margins are reverting, multiples are expanding, stocks are going up. unless you think there is a recession, around the corner, equities and risk assets should do okay. and in fact where is the imbalance in the economy? inflation is low. we haven't overbuilt on inventories or overhired. these are things that make us more upbeat the cycle continues. >> let me ask you this. if the economy is doing so well, maybe we are finally hitting this breakout point. why has the 10-year note still yielding 2.7%? kind of crazy. >> the fed is telling you. not raising rates for a long time. just too much carry in the market. and forward yield are much

higher. you think rates are going to go higher it better happen soon. you have to pay the difference in your financing costs to make money. if the fed is not moving rates for a long time then rates are going to stay low. when they do move back like we saw last year they go up quickly over a short period of time. >> a snap. adam, not looking for a 30% year. what are the sectors, the opportunities you think are the best? >> we have three main, this year, sector level. biggest one is overweight health care, underweight staples. generally, better achievability. more cash flow, more cash return to shareholder and cheaper stocks. staples are expensive and missi missing. second trade, growth. tech, over discretionary. really into the big data analytics cloud. changing the way companies are operating, last thing is chemicals over energy. industrials. the way to play oil is chemicals over oils or energy. >> adam, joe, thank you for joining us. >> thank you for having us. >> next "on the money" how can you take your career to the next step.

we have jack welch, the man today's ceos try to emulate. the former head of ge says it's as simple as being yourself. authenticity a value people lose sight off. >> whiskey sales are up 400% in the last decade alone. the surprising rise of a classic spirit. >> hi, are we still on for tomorrow. >> tomorrow. quick look at the weather. nice today, beautiful tomorrow. >> tomorrow is full of promise. >> we can come back tomorrow. >> we promise to keep it that way. driven to preserve the environment, we move a ton of freight nearly 450 miles on one gallon of fuel. >> can't wait until tomorrow. you used to sleep like a champ. then boom, what happened?

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his ideas on business grew general electric into a juggernaut. and his management style is taught at business schools across the country. the former ceo and chairman of general electric and now jack welch management institute. jack welch joins us with lessons in leadership. thank you for joining us. >> so great to see you, becky. >> we have viewers at home who would love to get a few minutes with you just to ask what they should be doing in their own careers. people who think, how can i get ahead? how can i get promoted? how can i get a raise?

i know it is very broad general advice. what is the best piece of advice that you can give someone who would just love to tap into you right now? >> well, the one i always give our students is, one word, overdeliver. if i ask you to do something, i've already got in mind what i'm thinking i would like you to do. you've got to do that plus make me smarter. so the job of any working professional, out there, who wants to move up in the ranks, make your boss smarter, always do more than you're asked for, don't just do the homework assignment. do more. you have students right now in the management institute and q u and as with them. you meet with them regularly. what questions do you get from them? >> my boss is a jerk, what do i do?

and i -- that's one. >> what do you tell them for a question like that? >> i tell them, look, you have got to decide if you -- if you are willing to take on the issue. if you have got a boss and your boss is not recognizing your contributions you have got to have the self-confidence to get in and say what do i have to do? what am i doing wrong? bring that to the party right away so that you develop a dialogue. if that doesn't work, then have the self-confidence to pack your bags and try it some where else. going around your boss is a losing strategy. it is not going to work. so you have got to make peace there, by again, overdelivering. if you aren't given that, if you aren't giving your manager above you, making them smile every day, making them look good with their bosses, the world will turn out pretty good for you. >> all right, let's take some of the lessons. apply them to situations we can look at right now in business.

general motors is having an incredibly tough time. they're facing a recall of over a million vehicles. something that it now looks like they knew about for over 13 years, and tied to the deaths of 12 individuals. there's a new ceo in charge. what should she do at this point? >> mary barra, ceo at gm has got to bring that team together and say, we really blew it here. what went wrong? let's get everything on the table. let's be sure there are no hidden agenda items here. let's tell everybody everything that's happened. what we know now. and then let's go fix it. and let's get it right with our customers. she's got a clean bill of health. she doesn't own that problem. she owns the fix, though. she owns what they look like going forward, how are going to behave. it's a new gm, they like to say. well, be a new gm now in this

crisis. and show yourself to be an open, constructive, one to take care of the problems and fix them. >> let me ask you about tesla. tesla is now just learning that new jersey is going to be the third state that won't allow them to sell directly to the public without going through a dealership. what should tesla do right now? >> well, obviously they've got to deal with a loss of land. and they've got to comply even if they don't buy into it. now, tesla had a fix to a two-step process that was revolutionary. and with this new car that everyone seems to be very attracted to with great consumer ratings, they had almost a cult-like following now. i've got people where i live

now, people all driving them, loving them in florida. but they've got to deal with this. the political forces that have overtaken good logic and good business have a leg up in new jersey, and i guess two other states. but now i'm sure people are going across the border to the next state doing things. that's a temporary fix. obviously this is a blow to their strategy. and i think with this guy who seems to be undaunted by anything. >> the ceo. >> yeah. he's got a real job here. who would have thought you could start a new company and be selling i guess 35,000 cars right now. and have such an incredible approval rating of his car. so we'll see what his next move is. >> jack, i want to thank you so much for joining us today. >> thanks a lot.

it's great being here. but do one thing when we're talking management. be sure you tell every ceo out it there that you're talking, to think about the funds been sucked out of business by the recession. what are you doing to put fun back into business? and two, what's your growth strategy? does everybody in your company come to work every day thinking about how do we grow? if you do that, this economy will be back a lot faster. >> all right. i want to thank you so much for your time, jack. >> thanks a lot. nice talking with you. >> jack welch. up next we are "on the money" planning to toast the irish this st. patrick's day? we're taking a look at business behind the bar and in the bottle. cheers to

whiskey names, and the spirited rise in popularity and sales. ray isle is executive wine editor at "food & wine" here for a look at the leader in the spirits industry just in time for st. patrick's day. ray, thanks for coming in. >> thanks for having me. >> can't believe we are doing this today. >> good for you. full of vitamins. >> it is. ready to go on this. talk abut sales. why is this taking off? >> a number of reasons. one is that there's such an interest in cocktail culture. a little "mad men" driven. young people are switching to brown spirits. irish was a forgotten category.

it just rocketed off. >> why irish whiskey, why not scotch? >> scotch is more saturated in the market. irish was really, honestly, little forgotten. it has gone up more than 400% since 2002. just in the past, 2012 growth was 23%. 2013, 18%. keeps going like that. >> i will warn you i don't ever drink hard alcohol. i'm a wine drijer -- drinker. i'm going to try this. >> this is bush mills. one of two big brands. jamison is number one. bush mills, we try harder number two. classic irish whiskey. >> oh, my. >> take a small sip. don't gulp it. it's softer than scotch, a little less aggressive believe it or not. it doesn't have that smoky intensity that scotch has. it's distilled three times. >> i'm warm all over already. >> you'll get warmer with green spot. >> green spot. launching in the u.s. a cult item in ireland a long time. single pot still irish whiskey.

>> what does that mean? >> means it's made out of a pot still rather than a continuous column still and made with a blend of malted and nonmalted barley. very unusual. >> i will try it. >> little softer. little richer. >> i do feel like i'm growing hair on my chest. >> i hope not. >> me, too. >> irish doesn't do that to you. >> i am a little tingly. will admit. >> the last one. 14-year-old. aged a little more. more complex than sherry and bourbon costs. >> that smells lighter. >> it's a little less round. >> that tastes really different. >> it's a little more round and little more woody. little more wood character. it heads a little more toward the scotch side. >> can they keep up production on this? >> yeah, they can. what's been smart. especially with jamison 's. the brand that is really taken off like crazy. is they -- they put away, put down a lot of whiskey to age. in anticipation of building a market.

you are seeing small producers pop up in ireland now to try to meet the demand. >> ray, thank you. >> thank you for having me. >> i really appreciate it, wow. from whiskey to beer. and in honor of st. patrick's day. taking a look at an iconic name in the bar business. mcsorley's old ale house in new york city. ♪ >> there is too much history to absorb in an hour. you need a week. >> mcsorley's, sort of a drinking museum. one of the oldest irish bars in the united states. this new york business has stayed consistent since 1854. >> that's the same key. same key and original doors are still there. >> you can start on one side of the wall. go from 1850. come up to the present day. >> serving just the house ale and light and bark, mcsorleys didn't allow women until 1970. no women's room until 1986. it stuck to core product and

found success for 160 years. joining me now are the owners of mcsorley, matthew mahr and theresa mmr. -- mahr. thank you for joining us. >> thank you for having us. >> i love mcsorely 's. everything that you guys do. you started working there in the 1960s. owned it since the 1970s. how do you keep the business going after all this time and keep it hot as ever? >> we have a wonderful following. it is easy. we get tremendous people. great people. is that what it is? environment in the bar? people come in. they stay. >> people change when they get to mcsorely's. >> how do they change? >> need to be more relaxed. in the mood to enjoy yourselves. it makes my job easy. >> theresa, you were the first woman to start working behind the bar. >> he kind of told me i have what it takes. there were all girls in the family. basically somebody should learn the business god forbid anything

happened to him. i have always had an interest. i love it. >> what does it take? if she has got what it takes. >> it is what she's got. >> just glad one of my daughters has it. >> you serve mcsorely's exclusively behind the bar. why? >> right. well that's -- that's a tradition. always there. used to grow their own ale on the premises. then it had to be done by a brewery. and it's pretty much tradition, really. >> that tradition, is that the same reason theresa you didn't have a cash register. don't have a computer going. that's really hard to imagine, a successful small business being run without a computer or cash register. >> we keep the ale flowing. two products. it's busy. >> is that the secret of the success? keep it simple? >> keep it simple. >> yes, works for us. >> you can't survive in what's lost. you are in the commodity business. nobody can survive in what's lost. it's what you have.

>> thank you both for being here. and talking about a wonderful establishment, mcsorely's. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> appreciate it. >> the news this week that will have an impact on "on the money." want to win a billion dollars? how your march madness bracket could pay off big time. and right now a look at how the stock market ended the week.

>> the stories coming up -- earnings from oracle, general mills, nike, tiffany. fed-ex. tuesday kicks off the federal reserve of's open market two-day meeting with a press conference scheduled for wednesday. wednesday first lady michelle obama will travel to china to promote education. on thursday we get existing home sales. also on thursday we'll be saying bye bye to winter and hello to spring at least according to the calendar. according to the calendar. here is news for sports fans out there. oracle of omaha, warren buffett, and dan gilbert are teaming up to offer $1 billion for the perfect march madness bracket. >> come to detroit in november, touring through the city. everything that is going on in downtown detroit. lot of exciting things there. on the way out he did the whole kind of columbo thing. one more thing. he said, i've been thinking about this concept of insuring

$1 billion for the tournament. would one of your companies be interested in it? so i thought he was kidding at first. >> it is long odds. if there is a winner. berkshire hathaway will pay up. ensuring it for quicken. the winner can choose to receive $25 million a year for 40 years or a lump sum payment of $500 million. the brackets go up sunday night. entry deadline is thursday. good luck. that's the show for today. i'm becky quick. thank you so much for joining me. next week, hot tips for tax season. each week keep it here. we're "on the money." have a great st. patrick's day, everybody. and we'll see you next you used to sleep like a champ, you lay down, clocked off

and next thing you knew, good morning. so what happened? life happened. work. stress. fun. bad habits. kids. kids. kids. now what? not milk. not sheep. not that. let's think smarter. let's get some science in here. let's build a bed. another bed? no, an entirely new sleep number bed that tracks your movement, your heartbeat, your breathing. sensors working directly with the air chambers, yeah you need the air chambers. introducing the sleep number x12 bed, the first bed that tracks your sleep patterns, and tells you how to adjust for a good night's sleep, a better night, and an awesome night. so what adjustments make the difference? try cranking it up? adjust it down? a little bubbly? or nix the late night flicks? wait, you'll know what works, cuz the sleepiq™ technology tells you. and all you have to do is sleep. which is easy.

only available at a sleep number store, try the unprecedented sleep number x12 bed. know better sleep with sleep number. ♪ >> this weekend on "extra," the stars you love all with us. >> all right, all right, all right. >> from dazed and confused to oscar winner matthew mcconaughey. >> when i first got started in the business, i would come out and was asked many times before i came out and throw up. >> and why his mom knew he was destined for superstar come. >> they like his butt. that's what it is. >> pre-oscar secret. >> i am so proud that it was this movie that brought me back. >> but what's next for the