tv On the Money NBC May 12, 2014 12:30am-1:01am PDT
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hi, everyone, welcome to on the money. the most powerful woman in the world of money goes to capitol hill. what you should do. words of wisdom from three of the world's richest men and choosing a financial adviser, should you have one, and how to find one that fits. "on the money" starts right now. we head into a new week on the money. she spoke, the markets listened and investors liked what they heard. janet yellin testified before
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lawmakers of both the house and senate this week and said that though the economy is improving, it has a long way to go. to most people, that means interest rates will stay low for a long time to come and that's good news, as far as stocks are concerned. the dow and s&p 500 had their best day in three weeks on wednesday. mixed on thursday, lows on friday. earnings season, pfizer beating estimates, disney blew out expectations, tesla -- chinese e commerce site filing for its initial public offering and is expected to raise more than $15 billion when it goes public. it could be the largest debut in history and market cap could be more than $200 billion. if you've been craving red meat for breakfast, burger king is announcing a new burgers at breakfast program. 5,000 stores have signed up for
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the program. a happy market, chatty fed and worries about the bond market. what does it mean? joining us now, michelle girard and zach karabell, president at twice river research. thank you both for joining us this morning. this week, we thought janet yellin testifying before the house and senate and she basically said the economy is improving, but it still needs help. do you agree with her comments and were either of you surprised by market reaction? zach? >> her comments are consistent with what they have been all along and what her predecess predecessor's, ben bernanke, have been. the only thing, changes in grammar and a comma going in one place and the other. i think that speaks to fragile market psychological, looking around a little bit deer in the headlights, post-traumatic stress syndrome from the 2008,
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2009 crisis. the fed has said they're going to have a loose, accommodative, easy, supportive policy. maybe not as much as it has been in the form of the bond buying, but other than that, that's what they've been saying. that's what she keeps saying and the market seems to have a hard time fully digesting that. >> we did see the markets enjoying what she said. were you surprised? >> it seems like she's contradicting herself, things are better, the fed still needs to be providing support. she is in some ways, trying to thread a needle. on the one hand, certainly she wants to acknowledge the economy is improving because it is and it also then certainly justified why they're scaling back on buying treasuries and mortgage-backed securities every month. so that is justified weather tapering, that they don't want to sound too upbeat because then the markets might worry that the fed is getting closer to raising
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interest rates or might hike rates sooner than they've been suggesting, so that's why i think she's trying to suggest while they're happy with the improvement, there's still more work to be done. this is the first time we had a chance to get her take after a strong jobs report. perhaps to some extent, there was relief that the strong jobs report hadn't changed anything for the fed. hadn't gotten them thinking more about tightening. maybe that explains the relief. >> you mentioned maybe she's trying to thread the needle by giving everything to everyone. do you think there's a moment of truth where the market goes, oh, my gosh, we're going to see higher rates or do you think it's baked into the market? >> i think that the market is thinking about higher rates. if you look at short-term indicator indicators, futures market, betting on when the fed will raise interest rates, the levels are kind of consistent with what they've been suggesting. we'll see the first hike in the
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middle of 2015, but a gradual increase in terms of short-term interest rates beyond that. >> there has been some concern about whether there's a bubble in the bond market. do you think there's one and why do you think, yields have been so low, at least on the long end of the curve. >> i think the whole bubble question, which seems to be asked daily anytime anything goes down more than what we would have expected. kind of speaks to more of that market psychology. the bubble hunting the i think understandable, because people feel like they were burned in 2007, 2008, 2009, but i don't think is indicative of we're missing risk. i think the fact that rates are going to stay low for a very long time and whatever we think normal is based on the 20th century, that doesn't necessarily constitute what we are going to return to. we could be at a very low interest rate environment as we have been since 2006.
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we could be that way for another five year, ten, as long as we're talking about it relative to what we expected in the 20th century. >> another example of a potential new normal. janet yellin said one of her biggest concerns was the slowdown in the housing market. >> it wasn't just weather. the weather's gotten better, but the housing data haven't foll followed along suit. i think there are some fundamental factors working against housing. which doesn't mean that recovery won't continue, but that it's going to perhaps be a slow grind. we still have tight mortgage conditions. it's hard to get a mortgage. one of the newer themes that everybody's been kind of focusing on are the difficulty for many first time home buyers because of student loan debt they're still carrying. it's also we're seeing affordability come down because interest rates have moved up and
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because home prices have rebounded, which is great for sellers, but does make it more difficult for some to be able to buy, so i think those are the kind of issues that again, won't derail the housing recovery, but suggest they may not see the double digit price gains on a year over year basis we saw in 2013. >> so, zach, long-term, how do you do the markets? let's talk specifically about stocks. >> you don't really want housing to leave the economy. i'm not sure if you want to stock market to lead overall activity. at least in the cases of stock market, you are, but you're investing in the most potent part of your economic laws. namely larger companies, that can pick their markets and don't bear a lot of the costs of being alive. they don't have to build roads, educate children, care for the elderly. i don't think there's any reason why stocks and equity markets in particular can't and shouldn't
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do rather better than any national economy. when anyone says we're chugging along at 2 or 3% economic growth, why are the markets up, they're up so much because their dynamics are not the same as national economy. we need to uncouple these in a way that is not as familiar in the past, but should be absolutely typical going forward into the issue. >> michelle? >> i would just say that i don't think we're looking at equity levels purely because the fed is add i adding all this liquidity and that's pushing stock prices higher. i think the u.s. economy is on solid ground. it isn't growing in a spectacular rate, but it is on solid ground and companies have gotten themselves in a position to be able to make money even in a relatively subdued economic environment. i think there are fundamentals that are supporting the equity market. you hear people saying it's all because of the fed. i just don't think that's the case. >> thank you both very much.
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up next, we are on the gates, buffett and munger. they might be worth well over a billion dollars, but only a penny for their thoughts. find out what these three old friends think and talk about behind closed doors, also, what has one of the titans so concerned. >> i'm all by myself in this, i feel very lonely. >> and later, getting your money questions answered. is a financial adviser worth the price? how do you find one you trust and what can they really do for you? as we take a break right now, take a look at how the stock market ended the week.
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warren buffett, bill gates and charlie munger, we had a wide ranging interview where they talked about their views on the market. >> you have thousands of corporations, some of them are going to be poorly run and some run in a very self-interested manner by the managers. can be a correction, changes needed in corporations, but they're not going to do it themselves. >> charlie, i'd love to get your opinion about what you think about high frequency traders. is the book right that lays out for michael lewis, they are skimming off the top and it's a fi fixed market? >> of course, they have an advantage, cleverly obtained and of course, it does the rest of the civilization no good at all. it's functional equivalent of rats into a granary. no, i don't like it.
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>> charlie. >> it doesn't seem like it's much lauded because you really need the liquidity, it's not guaranteed to be there, so i'm not an expert on it, but it seems like a strange sort of profit. >> it may create more volume, but that's not the same as being a liquidity provider. they've gained a natural advantage just by figuring out how the system worked and getting there first. that adds nothing to gdp or real output of goods and services. on the other hand, the market isn't for the small investor, they've never had it so good and high frequency trading, i don't think cost them a penny probably. >> let me ask you very quickly about the situation in ukraine. how much time do any of you
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spend thinking about that? how concerned should we go from a geo political standpoint? >> when you have disputes between countries, you sometimes will make political points, you'll sometimes take economic pains and i don't think it's going to get terrible, but it would certainly be high on the list of concerns right now. >> you are no longer the largest shareholder of microsoft. >> i've sold for over a decade, the same number of shares. that plan lasts through the end of this year. you know, i'm going to retain a lot of microsoft stock. but the u.s. treasury has done well. >> are you excited about the new ceo? >> yeah, off to an amazing start and he's drawing on a broad set
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of people in the company to get them to rethink how can microsoft move a bit faster and really distinguish ourselves with office 365. >> you've said things in previous meetings, maybe it was two or three years ago, that kind of changed my thinking about i it. just the idea that we should be exporting natural gas and other natural resources. your idea was that we should save it all. >> item totally against exporting natural gas. i don't like oil to be exported either. i'm all for using oil more slowly and discovering it more slowly. i'm all by myself in this. i feel very lonely. >> why is it that you think we shouldn't export it? >> i think this stuff is utterly precious. >> warren, you agree? >> well, if i were in charge of running the united states for the next 500 year, i'd want to ability to produce energy
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because i would not want to be dependent on the rest of the world in that respect, but if otherwise, and like i said, a responsibility for hundreds and hundreds of years, i'd use the other guys. >> with the stock market hitting new highs, if that concerns any of the throw of you, things are starting to look expensive. bill, what do you think? >> well, relative to interest rates, equities are still a bargain. the central banks are making sure that's the case. trying to stimulate these economies as best they can. the fact that it requires the gas pedal being pushed to the floor as much as it does is amazing and even a little bit scary thing. >> charlie, what do you think? >> bill gross calls the new normal. common stocks may not do as well in the future as they did in the last 100 years, but that doesn't mean that the mungers are going to sell their common stocks in order to buy them back cheaper.
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if you have questions about your investments, what do they cost and how do you find one you trust? sharon especiallier son joins us with more. >> my view is that most people need a financial adviser. you need a third party to say, this is what you should do and help you stay on track. a lot of people believe they can do it themselves. probably about 40% of us say they can do it themselves, but the reality is sticking to your goals and reaching your long-term objectives, a lot of people aren't doing that part of it. >> so, how do i go about finding a good financial adviser, one i might trust and what should i be on the lookout for. >> you're probably going to scowl around and find the best, you might talk to two -- three people and get referrals. ask a friend, family members,
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colleagues. people you think that have been successful in their finances and if you're still stuck, you can go to a financial planning organization or the national association of personal financial advisers. >> one of the questions that always comes up is how are they compensated? you look at those kind of skeptically, are they making money because they are pushing me a particular product. >> they could be paid an hourly rate, a flat fee or be paid a commission based on the securities they sale ell or the could be paid a commission. >> do they have to tell me whether i ask them or not? >> they should tell you if you ask them, but you can also go to the security and exchange website and look up a form avv part two. in that, they have to list their fee structure. >> personally, i just have my
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money in a fund because that's something warren buffett has been preaching. >> something that tracks the s&p 500. what's the difference between doing that -- >> a lot of people take that approach, but when the market is not doing well, in a weak market, sometimes, you want someone who knows something about picking stocks. as you get more assets, you may not want to just be in stocks and fixed income bonds. most investors long-term are going to be in that and finding those asset classes from time to time are difficult for individual investors to do on their own and getting professional advise to do that is another reason why you may want to hire another adviser. >> i'm a long-term investor x but maybe as you get closer to having your kids go to college,
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having retirement coming up, maybe a few years ahead of that, you want a little more advice? >> you just named several goals you have. i think they should be a certified financial planner and have that cft designation so they can help you plan for various stages, whether just having a child, starting a fam lichl how do you start saving that early for college, pay for college while you're there, save for retirement and most important, how do you leave a legacy of financial strength. all those things can be handled by the right type of financial adviser. >> what's the difference between a certified financial planner and just a financial add virz. ? >> it's someone who has gone to the certified financial board of planning standards and got that designation. they can plan in all these different areas, not just a broker who's going to sell your their securities.
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for more on our show, go to our website. you can also follow us on twitter at "on the money." here are stories coming up this week. macies, jc penney and nordstrom all reports earnings. on wednesday, mark zuckerberg will be celebrating his 30th birthday. that's right. this is the guy who gave away a billion dollars last year. on thursday, we'll see how inflation is faring. on friday, howing starts are out and wabarbara walters will reti from television and say farewell from the view. christies sold pieces from both artists this week for more than $20 million. it is less than what they were expected to go for. testing the high flying art market in this week's spring markets of impressionists art.
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sotheby's failed to reach their minimum price, so is this a sign of the bubble bursting. that's the show for today. i'm becky quick. thank you so much for joining me. last week, we had promised to bring you alan alda. we hope to have him at a later date. next week, long-term care insurance. do you need it? each week, you can keep it here. we're "on the money." have a great one and i'll see you right back here next weekend. at shell, we believe the world needs a broader mix of energies, which is why we are supplying natural gas, to generate cleaner electricity, that has around 50% fewer co2 emissions than coal. and why with our partner in brazil, we are producing a biofuel made from
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. >> kim kardashian twitter terror. truth about her wedding. how many "vogue"did they really sell. we have the number. hi everybody. welcome to "access hollywood". weekend edition i'm shaun robinson. we start off the show with kim wedding as she separates fact from fiction in her own words. >> the it's soon. >>reporter: new last name soon not already. as kim shots down the rumor that "vogue".com take she and kanye are married with wedding celebration apparently scheduled for may 24th in pari
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