welcome to "on me money." i'm becky quick. the markets rally with a bang. why china and europe really matter to your> and obamacare c. one year later is america's health care system healed, sick or in the middle? talking turkey, ceo of butterball talks about turkey trends, taste and t. if you are waiting for black friday to do shopping you may want to rethink that. we will have shopping secrets and the best days for bargains. "on the money" starts right now. >> this is "on the money," your money, your life, your future. now becky quick. >> here's a look at what is making news as we head to a new week. the stock market is off to the races again.

equities soared in trading early friday after the bank of china lowered rates to stimulate the economy and mario drag gi helped europe's economy. the dow closed at new record highs again. if you have been house hunting you are not alone. sales rose in october increasing 1.5%. that is well above what economists predicted. big retailers reported earnings this week and beat expectations including home delowing loews, staples and best buy. almost time to hit the road for the holidays and aaa says the highways will be crowded. 46.3 million americans are expected to travel by car, up 4.2% from last year. with gas down 43 cents a gallon from last thanksgiving. billboard is trying to keep up with the times them weekly tally of the 200 top selling albums will count streaming music and digital sales rather than just albums. it seems every time you turn

around the markets are setting records. it started in china after the ecb started a buying program. are we off to the races or are there obstacles in the way? joining us is tom porcelli, rbc capital markets chief u.s. economist and heidi moore, the guardian u.s. finance & economics editor . thank you for being here today. friday morning was an interesting time to hear from the ecb and from china all within moments of each other. tom, what do you think this means? >> look, i don't think anyone should be surprised by the fact you have this -- people call it coordination, i don't think it is coordination. i think the reality is the economies are going through a cyclical swing down and require a lift. i think the ecb was telegraphed ages ago. the china development was something of a surprise to be sure. even there, i think how surprised can you be when you look at their pmi oscillating

above and below grade the last two years. i think the reality is the u.s. is fortunately not in the same boat. the fed policymakers are going to basically try to take some of that a stimulus out. it is interesting the dichotomy we have right now. >> heidi, it may not be a coordinated effort, i don't think th is the case but this is the neighbor policy and we have seen this round robin around the globe. how does it work and can it be effective when everybody is trying the same thing? >> for a long time we thought the u.s. consumer would save the world with spinding and inspiring the world economy and then went to the chinese consumer and now the chinese gdp is half of what it was in 2007 when it hit its peak. the chinese consumer can no longer spend enough to support the run up in production and prices, commodities, oil, gas, cotton. we push production up because we thought china would buy.

it's not buying anymore. it is plan b for the rest of the world. the ecb has to think of how europe will survive and the u.s. is working on recovery but we look good because we have a recovery. >> i think is a great point. what people have to realize is all of these other central banks can sort of take a cue from what has happened here in the united states. we have -- for lack of a better phrase, we printed a lot of money but even with the money printing the consumer is chugging along at a 2% clip. the reality is you can create a favorable backdrop in theory for the consumer to take advantage of that but if the transmission mek mechanism is broken you can't force borrowing. you can't force buying. >> what i wonder is the stock markets love these things. you watch the markets here today and in europe on friday, watched them take off. i wonder, is that real? can it last? does that fall apart? what do you think? >> here's what i would say in

the united states. just keep in mind what typically drives a stock market down. it is almost always a recession. think what you have to realize is that i don't even see a recession anytime in our future. if that is true, what i would say to you then the stock market should move along. i will leave it to the strategist to determine what it means in terms of returns but the reality is you should see buoyant stock markets in the fact you are not looking at any recession. we are in the midpoint of the psych until the united states. >> you would. you are talking multiyears. >> i always say it about equity investors in particular. they are desperate for 3 or 4% growth in the united states but here's the great thing about not growing at 3 or 4%. the only way to get there right now, one of the only ways to accelerate economic activity from 2 to 4% is for credit to be used. once you use credit in a

material way, at the consumer level is when you build in imbalances and the lack of imbalances means a longer economic expansion than is typical. instead of seven or eight year expansion this will be a ten, to 15 year expansion. >> this week the federal reserve said it feels pretty good about the u.s. economy. it does not feel great about what it sees happening in the world. i wonder what we should watch next. where the stock market will pick up its cues. >> what you want top watch is how companies are doing and they have been doing well. that's been driving prices up but their profits aren't matching up with that. earlier this year there were a lot of warnings about profit warnings from companies that margins were falling sharply. you are seeing high stock prices but not the same performance on the company's bottom lines. so you need consumers to fill in that gap. we'll see that on black friday. that's coming in the week ahead. i think the thing to watch, and which the federal reserve also mentioned, is that consumers

have records right now, $3.2 trillion if you count auto, credit and student loans. if black friday does well it is because of more credit. you have to think if retail sales do well this week it is because people are more indebted. it is a little risk. >> something to watch closely. tom, what are you telling your clients right now? >> it's funny. i have this presentation that i bring to client meetings. the title of it right now is "i have more charts in here other than those related to the fed." that's all anyone wants to talk about and i'm happy to have that conversation. from our perspective, as it relates to the fed, we think that they will go in the middle of next year. i think in a lot of ways, i they they have painted themselves in to a coroner this regard. for better or worse i think the middle of the year liftoff. >> thank you both. >> thank you, becky. >> thank you. up next we're "on the money" enrollment for year two of the affordable care act. what is working and what isn't. we will hear from the ceo of one

of the largest health companies in the country. and if you are planning to cook up the perfect thanksgiving meal and need a helping hand for your holiday feast. we will talk turkey with the man who runs butterball. as we head to a break look at how the stock market ended the ♪

♪ >> health care accounts for 18 cents of every dollar spent in the u.s. economy. is there a system providing affordable and quality care for you? joining us right now, during annual enrollment season when people are thinking of their benefits and insurance is the head of the one of the largest insurance companies in the nation, dr. kenneth davis mount sinai ceo & president . thank you for being here. >> how do you think we are doing when it comes to people who have or need health insurance? >> this has been a complicated law. the law was designed to do three

things -- improve access, improve quality and decrease costs. it affects different entities differently. it affects patients, it affects the people who provide the care and insurance companies, the payers, the government. how have we done with all of those entities? we improved access. there are more patients insured than ever before and that's a good thing. there are things in the aca that mandated changes in quality. fewer hospital readmissions, fewer hospital wide infections. we improved quality. have we diminished costs? well, it seems the rate of increase in medicare expenditures and medicaid expenditures is certainly the rate of increase is diminishing. is that the aca, is that other reasons? we can debate that. it seems a lot of the goals of the bill are being met. >> you run a hospital system with seven hospitals. 3500 beds? >> 3500 beds. >> how is it impacting how you

run things at mount sinai in particular? >> hospitals are under a great deal of pressure. we, in new york, don't see an influx of medicaid patients because it is a fairly generous medicaid state to begin with and we don't see a lot of people who have joined the exchange who previously didn't have insurance. what we are seeing is the decrease in revenues that have been associated with so many aspects of policy for the center for medicare services and for the aca. what we see is shrinking margins and increased pressure on the hospitals. >> you know, that was something that originally the hospitals were going to have to take the hit early on. once everyone got coverage it was supposed to be better things. that hasn't been the case necessarily with mount sinai. has it been the case with the hospital system generally in the united states? >> it depends on where the hospital is located. if you are in an area with high medicaid, it doesn't really help you because hospitals lose money on medicaid. mount sinai we lose 13 cents on

the dollar for every medicaid. so that doesn't help, but if you are in anner ththat /* aer that insured and people are buying more, you have more patients and it is a good thing. it depends on the demographics of where hospitals are located. >> 18% of the gdp going to health care you said yeah and headed to 20. how do we arrest and stop that growth? how do we get that number down? >> bending what we call the cost curve in health care is really got to be a focus of everybody's attention, all of the policymakers. we have only begun to scratch the surface. a lot of the most difficult issues we don't deal. for instance, most of the cost of medicare, the largest percentage, is spent in the last year of life. the last year of life is often for complicated yet futile treatments for patients who really if they had the choice wouldn't have wanted them. what we need to ask is how do we

improve the dialogue around end of life care with advanced directives so we don't do what patients don't want and what is enormously expensive and often fewtism we don't want to address head on the problems with the epidemic of type ii diabetes in the country which is the epidemic of obesity and whether we should subsidize high fructose corn syrup. >> every time you get in that discussion where people say it is a nanny state and i don't want a nan ty state. how do you get at the issues without the conversation. >> i think you discuss it like tobacco. what we have is a health care problem. what we did around tobacco was warn people and do something about its accessibility. we haven't even wanted to approach that around a lot of the sugar that infiltrates so much of our food sources. >> if you had one or two

initiatives you could attack, is that what it would be? >> i would do think three things. >> okay. >> i would facilitate advanced directives so that doctors, hospitals know what people want at the end of life. i would think very hard about warning labels on high fructose corn syrup and stop subsidies for corn and the third thing i would do is i would ask what can we do to facilitate the development of those drugs that are most needed to bend the cost curve and for public health. we have not insenlt vised the drug's development that we need the most where we incentivized the development of other drugs. >> doctor, thank you so much for the conversation. i'd love to have you back soon. it seems there are endless stoppsto topics to discuss here. >> there are. fresh or frozen. help with thanksgiving meal is a click or call away. butterball's ceo is here to talk through the turkey trouble.

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this week, millions of people will carve a thanksgiving turkey with all of the trimmings. according to a report by the american farm bureau the cost to feed a family of ten thanksgiving dinner went up 1% from last year. the cost isn't going up much what about the cooking itself?

joining us to talk turkey is butterball president and ceo, kerry doughty. great to see you. >> good morning, becky. >> let's dig in to. this this is thanksgiving week with. people are having traditional holiday meals i assume but i wonder how people will be cooking their turkeys this year? >> a couple of things going on. one is the traditional of the normal turkey dinner. it is on thanksgiving. that is a time of special celebration, joining family and friends for a meal. and although preparation methods have changed dramatically across the spectrum, you still have a lot of the old nostalgic mill preparation around thanksgiving. it does include different sections of smoking, brining and deep frying as we have seen in the past but for the most part most families will enjoy a traditional roasted turkey on thanksgiving day. >> we talked about how prices

haven't gone up at all for preparing a thanksgiving meal. what about the turkey prices themselves? what are they done over the last year? >> turkey prices, there are two things going on there. you mentioned grain driving the cost of proteins across the board. turkey on average all products we have seen the increases in price relative to the feed inputs that all of the proteins have. however, around thanksgiving, you have a lot of retailers that continue to price turkeys to get their customers in to buy their basket of groceries. it is still a significant loss leader at retail. therefore, very little increase year to year. >> a lot can go wrong when you are trying to cook a big bird. it can be incredibly nerve-racking for the cook. i wonder, when did you start the hotline? and what can people expect if they call the butterball hotline? >> the turkey talk line opened up the first week of november

this year. we have 50 turkey experts, if you will, that believe me they have heard all of the stories of problems with thawing, preparation, with cook times, with yields, how much. they have got the answers to that. and a new facet of the turkey talk line is the ability to go on-line. butterball.com. and basically butter ball it and get your questions answered on-line this year. >> kerry, have you ever worked the turkey talk line? >> i have been u several days. i can't tell you -- i don't think they want me actually picking up the phone and answering questions. i feel confident i can do that, but i have been up with the ladies and ja gentlemen that operate the turkey talk line and it is a lot of fun, very stressful. they are working a lot of hours in a short period of time but a good cause. >> what's the weirdest question you have heard anyone ask? >> i think two things. one was lady called in and asked

if we could help her find her turkey because she had placed it to be thawed out and we said, okay. where at? and she said it is outside and the problem with it being outside is they had gotten four feet of snow. she had literally lost her turkey. another one was a call asking about how long it would take to thaw their turkey out in their rinse cycle in their washing machine. those are some of the types of questions that we get. >> those are a couple of doozies. i will try to come up with one myself and call this week. kerry, thank you for joining me. >> my pleasure. have a great day and great thanksgiving. >> coming up a look at the week ahead and bargains or bamboozled. find out if the best day to shop is the one you t.

for more on our show and our guests go to our website. here's the stories coming up that may impact your money this week. on tuesday, the second reading of last quarter's gdp is out. also on tuesday, the case schiller home price index released. that measures the prices of homes that have been sold. on wednesday personal income figures released and the fab four's 52nd anniversary. the day that john, paul, george and ringo had their first recording session ournd the name the beatles. thanksgiving is thursday sen the markets are closed and the

markets close early after half day of fraid trading on friday. black friday shoppers may be searching for deals on the wrong day. what's the right day? joining us is sharon epperson on the real bargain days to shop and they almost never involve standing outside in the cold. that's the good news. >> that's the great news. >> if it is not black friday, when is it? >> the sunday before thanksgiving. do you have your act together? i do not. if you know what is on your list, that is a great day or even the day before thanksgiving. >> why? >> a lot of folks think cybermonday is a great day, too. if you want to g on-line, shop thanksgiving day. >> is that because retailers are trying to get you in early in the season. >> so much competition. always been a lot but now that you can figure out what you want on your smartphone it is even more steep. they are offering great deals earlier and earlier. the onus is on the consumer to have their list, and budget together to shop and take

advantage of the deals. >> i know we are smarter because we can look at the smartphones and figure out the best price right there. what are red flags to let you know if you are getting a gooel good deal or not. >> start on the internet a shop. look at the deals available via social media. might be special prices you will see on facebook and you didn't get something in the mail about it or may not have gotten an e-mail but it is on social media. look. there you can actually do comparison shopping in the door, red laser and different apps let you compare and see where you can get the item cheaper. >> tell the truth. do you shop on black friday? >> i do not. i do not want to leave the house. that's one day i'd rather be inside and not do it. a lot of people do go out and they do go out on black friday and they know there are certain items on the list the kids have to have and they want to get them for them and one red flag is don't get pressured in to getting a store card to get a discount. there are studies that have

shown a number of consumers, maybe a third feel they are bullied in to getting a store card because they are going to get this offer and the clerk is saying you will get this much off. stick to your guns and your bucket. have an idea of what card you will use. use the card with the lowest interest rate. >> good point. >> that way if you carry over the balance, you will pay less on sglit sharon, thank you. >> sure. >> that does it for us. that's the show. i'm becky quick. thank you for joining us. next week a holiday look at gift ideas, charity and retail and the season of giving. each week keep it here. we're "on the money." happy thanksgiving, ev my grandson's got this

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