female announcer: "press:here" is sponsored in part by barracuda networks, cloud-connected security and storage solutions that simplify it. city national bank, providing loans and lines of credit to help northern california businesses grow. scott mcgrew: can big data predict big injuries in sports? kitman labs' stephen smith has convinced top-level teams his software can do it. even we didn't know the modern roller coaster started as a silicon valley success story. and a look at "the membership economy." our reporters joe menn of reuters and jon swartz of usa today this week on "press:here." [music]

scott: good morning, everyone, i'm scott mcgrew. it's obvious that steph curry is key to the golden state warriors' success. it's also been proven twice now that the team suffers when curry does not play due to that injury. what if you could predict curry's injuries before they happen? or andrew luck's, or peyton menning's? it would be a game changer in the most literal way. there is a startup that claims it can. kitman labs says just by pointing a camera at an athlete and recording his body movements or her body movements, it can accurately predict future injuries. no sensors, just a camera and 90 seconds of video. that is the claim that stephen smith is making, and the detroit pistons believe him. the miami dolphins believe him. i don't know who they are, but the lenster rugby club believes him. joining me are jon swartz of usa today and joe menn of reuters. at lenster rugby club? stephen smith: lenster rugby club. scott: lenster rugby club, very good.

they believe you. make me believe you. is it as simple as you point a camera at an athlete, ask them to move a certain way, and you can say, "yeah, you're going to tear that part of your shoulder"? stephen: i wish it was that simple, but it's absolutely not. and you know, the camera-based system is only a tiny piece of what we do. we're actually an entire software platform. we've created the world's first athlete optimization system. we pull in multiple different data streams, so we collect data, we combine data, and then we analyze it, all to do with the exposure of athletes in terms of how they train and how they play. but then, more importantly, how they've responded to that, how they respond to that every day, how they respond physically. scott: but we're not talking about sensors, though, right? i mean, you're not putting a sensor in a helmet or on the bottom of a shoe. stephen: we're not talking about sensors. we're talking about data. scott: from a camera? stephen: not just from a camera. that's one tiny piece. scott: okay, where's the data coming from? stephen: we take data from wearables, from player tracking systems, from electronic medical records, from psychological information we take from the athletes, and then mechanical information that we take from this camera basis.

jon swartz: so conceivably, they might be wearing something while they're playing? stephen: most athletes are wearing things while they're training. i don't think they're allowed to wear wearable sensors in a game. but player tracking systems collect information through a game. like in the nfl, zebra technologies collect all the game information about how people play. exactly the same in basketball with sportsview. jon: but see, what interests me is that with the nfl, with all the concussion problems it's had and the soft tissue injuries it's had, they're looking at different ways to change the equipment. and the best they can do now is they can have somebody come off the field after they've been spotted, and have them test for concussion. i'm wondering how this-- how you can-- this is predictive, or more pre-injury, or tendencies towards a possibility of somebody being injured during a game? stephen: it's all about risk management for us. and it's about providing the relevant information to the practitioners to change the way they train the athletes, change the way they treat the athletes. we know in the nfl they have multiple problems, including concussion, but this year alone, there have been 48 acl injuries in the nfl. that's 48 athletes whose seasons have been finished.

jon: the vast majority of medical injuries are related-- scott: and you're saying you can predict that that athlete, bob smith, is most likely to get an acl injury in the next 6 weeks? stephen: we can show symptoms and signs and particular variables that increase the likelihood for specific types of injuries. and if we look at, let's say, rugby and compare it to nfl, we know that teams in rugby are eight times less likely to sustain an acl injury than an nfl player. and we know that teams that use our system are 16 times less likely to sustain an acl injury than teams in the nfl. and then people look at that and think immediately that's to do with the violent trauma. but actually, 60% of those injuries are non-contact related. jon: i think it would be more often common in training. so, you could wear the device during training, during mid-week, say between an nfl game. that's often when injuries of wear and tear take place. i mean, that to me makes sense. stephen: absolutely. and athletes do wear wearables in those scenarios, and we pull that information in.

but it's worth noting that those wearables only tell us what the athlete did in training. it tells us nothing about how they've actually responded. and that's what we look at. joe menn: so, what would measure the response? what are some of the biofeedback that you're getting? and if acls are one of your proof points, like what's some of the data that would help you predict an acl? stephen: things like the amount of training load someone has performed, the amount of sprints they've performed, the amount of change of directions that they performed, how they've responded to that. then through how they're sleeping, how stressed they are, how they're actually feeling today and how they perform. we also look at then things like mechanical changes, how are their hips moving, how their knees moving, how are their ankles moving. and we can see subtle degenerative changes in those data points to let us know that someone has an increased risk. scott: i can see this could work if your data set were big enough. we have looked at x number of people and, based on this, these percentage-wise beyond--what's the statistical thing, you know? the standard deviation. thank you, it's been a while.

beyond the standard deviation, this happens. but what's your data set? i mean, you're a relatively young company with only, what, 30, 40 teams that you're looking at, right? stephen: just over 30 teams, but we have quite a large cohort. and we've been collecting data on this since 2008, so we have a very large data set that we've been looking at, but that's continuously growing. jon: you know, a lot of nfl teams have these long, data histories of their players. they didn't want to share them with anyone outside their teams, which is always a part of the problem. and i think there's another thing, that notre dame's athletic director, one of the things he wants to do is create a database of high school students before they get to the pros, before they even get to college, and their tendencies so, at an early age, you can find out where the deteriorations have started, if it has. stephen: that's the absolute future. when you look at things the way the nfl are doing things right now, i mean, they know that there's a direct correlation between the amount of dollars they have available to them on the field and their ability to win games. and we've shown that teams that have $93.1 million worth of athletes available throughout the season have a 97% likelihood of making the playoffs. that's an astonishing figure.

if we can help teams to gain these efficiencies, to keep their players on the field, we can help them to make the playoffs. joe: let me ask another question about the-- where the most useful data comes from. if i'm a running back, are you getting the most valuable information from looking at the universe of other running backs? or my personal history, you're looking at changes in my behavior, my response, my sleep patterns, whatever it is? stephen: that's a great question. it's all about you. because we found that we cannot compare you with scott. what's going to cause scott to break down is completely different. scott: we're both going to break down fast, to be honest with you, yeah. stephen: it's all to do with the specific individuals and how we look at them. because everybody has their own makeup. and all of these athletes are different. and we can't compare tom brady with edelman. they're different players, they have different demands, they have different risks. jon: you know, the one thing, though, that you're going to have a problem with, i think, regardless of the sport, especially in football, is a player acknowledging that they're hurt. i mean, you're going to say, "i think there's something wrong with you," and they're going to say, "no, i'm totally fine." and there are more injuries that are compounded by players who

refuse to leave because they're terrified of losing their jobs. stephen: we agree, and that's why we actually feel that our system is so important because our system is there not to say that you're hurt and you have to stop. our system is there to say, "hey, there's something here that's not quite right. let's change the way we train you, let's change the way we treat you, and let's make sure that you don't break down. let's make sure you keep your job, let's make sure you earn more money, let's make sure you're more successful." scott: stephen, let me ask you. you're an irish-based company, mostly with an irish employee base. you understand baseball well enough to understand baseball injuries? i mean, did you do research or did you hire american experts? stephen: we have a team of researchers, obviously, that help us to understand what's going on with each of these different sports. and then we have--obviously on our advisory board, we have some pretty big names in terms of baseball. scott: well, billy beane just joined you guys, yeah, speaking of numbers, yeah. stephen: i mean, baseball's a complicated game, but you know, people like that can actually help us to understand it. but we also have some fantastic researchers involved in the company that help us to understand. scott: jon has one last question. jon: do you think the success of the warriors, they were

fairly injury-free last year, do you think that that will help your business, that that has had an influence on companies or teams coming to you and saying-- stephen: absolutely, it has. teams are now starting to understand that they need a healthy squad to be successful. and everybody wants to win. scott: well, they're sinking that much money into it, so that makes total sense. all right, well, stephen smith, thank you for joining us this morning. up next, why your business should take a cue from a car wash when "press:here" continues. [music]

the car wash i go to from time to time just started a new program where you pay the car wash a set amount of money each month, then you can go as much as you want at no additional cost, once a day, once a month, whatever makes you happy. it's a win-win, but especially for the car wash because members of the car wash club use those free washes less than they really think they will, and the car wash has a guaranteed source of income. well, it turns out lots of businesses are moving to this model, or thinking about it. silicon valley consultant robbie kellman baxter writes about it in her book "the membership economy." baxter is a graduate of harvard and stanford, and runs peninsula strategies. thanks for being with us this morning. robbie kellman baxter: thanks for having me. scott: okay, so, the car wash is a great example of this. what other things--i mean, obviously magazines are part of a membership or a subscription economy. netflix is obvious. what other sort of things are trying this or doing this?

robbie: well, it's interesting that you ask because when i started researching this, i'm a silicon valley native, and i was really focused on the sas companies here and the consumer tech companies. but in my research, i learned that companies as varied as very small mom and pop businesses, big traditional companies, sports companies like crossfit, and even gyms, gyms, and even non-profits are using a membership model. scott: how might a mom and pop create a membership sort of thing? robbie: yeah, well, your example of the car wash is a great one. so, the idea of bringing people together is also used in nail salons. so, i've seen a few nail salons where, instead of coming in, you know, as needed to get your nails done, you can sign up for a basically all you can use. and what's great about that is for the consumer, the value, the outcome that they really want is not a manicure every 2 weeks. the outcome they want is to always look polished.

so, they can stop in and get a chipped nail repaired, and they also come in on a regular basis at the same time, so they actually build relationships not just with their technician, but also with the other people who come at the same time. scott: sure. joe: is there some simple math concept here that says, you know, if your average customer spends x dollars over the year, you should offer them a year-long membership for x over something, or 2 x, or? robbie: so actually, i don't think so. i think it's actually--it varies depending on the needs because what you need to focus on is the need of that consumer. so, in the case of the manicurist, i might pay a premium to be able to go in and get my nails touched up, even if that cost that i'm paying is higher than what i would be paying to go once a week. so, it's not always the case that there's, like, a fixed model that says, you know, charge them x plus something for the privilege of being able to go whenever they want. jon: so is netflix, in a sense, the ideal model company

for this type of economy? or are there other tech companies that are well-positioned to do something on the same par? robbie: yeah, so actually, i worked with netflix. and they inspired--to a great extent inspired the book, the work that i did with them, because they were one of the first organizations that i saw that was really charging for access as opposed to ownership. and that was taking the data that they had collected on the consumer and using it to make recommendations. it was the first recommendation engine that i'd seen. but over the last 10 or 15 years, i've seen examples of the membership economy just here in silicon valley, everything from surveymonkey to linkedin to pinterest, yeah. scott: because people are paying a monthly fee sort of thing. i mean, there's kind of a subtle difference between a membership economy and a subscription economy. robbie: yes, yes. scott: i don't necessarily believe in the subscription, particularly the snack boxes. i think there are like 13 different companies that are offering snack boxes in the mail. and i don't think the economy can support that, do you?

robbie: no. i mean, the subscription boxes, which are very popular right now, are great for discovery. but the purpose is in the physical membership economy, so when you're actually paying for product replenishment, there's really three reasons that you would want to. one of them is discovery, which is i want to learn about cool new products. but the other two are about convenience and cost savings. and those boxes don't do that as well. so, my prediction is that the organizations that really succeed are going to be good at those other two values and not just on discovery. and one example of that is amazon prime is really encouraging that. and their subscribe and save model is a replenishment model where you get a very slight savings in exchange, and a great convenience in exchange for a long-time commitment to buying the same products over and over again. joe: does this mean that all those harassing phone calls i've gotten over the years from the time share--the time-share guys, i should have been listening to them? like these are actually, you know,

the visionaries of the future? because they just seem like they're giving me a hard sell. robbie: yeah. so, there is a dark side to the membership economy. there are a lot of people, a lot of business people, they use principles of membership to try to cheat their customers. and that's something that i don't believe is good from a karma perspective and also from a business perspective because eventually--you know, one of the big strengths of the membership economy is that if i am a member of something and it's really great, i'm going to tell you about it. scott: robbie, with just a minute left or so, convince me. i mean, the back of the book jacket or elevator pitch, i have a business. convince me a membership sort of structure might work for me. robbie: yeah. so, for virtually any business that would thrive on having a long-term known relationship with the customer, from the perspective of you as the business owner, if you have a membership model, you get predictable, recurring revenue, you get to know your customers better

so that you can serve them better, and to continue to evolve your offering to stay relevant. and so, they're happier, they're more likely to stay, and you get higher profit. scott: robbie kellman baxter's book is "the membership economy." thanks for being with us. robbie: thanks for having me. scott: "press:here" will be back in just a minute. [music]

the only roller coaster i've noticed lately is the dow industrials. watch that first drop, it is a doozy. but i was talking recently to a historian who pointed out

the two biggest developments in roller coasters, the modern steel roller coaster used everywhere in the world, and the log flue ride, the one with the big splash at the end, were both designed here in silicon valley, and literally in a garage. the company called aero development created the modern roller coaster before computers. now, that historian has gathered up the details of that story and turned it into a documentary. kris rowberry's new movie premieres at the montgomery theater in silicon valley. the movie is "the legacy of aero development." thanks for being with us. now, i want to point out your movie's called "the legacy of aero development." you used to have a venture with an airship called airship ventures. you are horrible at titles. your movie is really called "the legacy of aero development"? kris rowberry: it really is because we thought that was the best title to get people not necessarily interested in the film, but to tell them exactly what it's all about. scott: you know a title is supposed to get people interested in a film?

kris: but it's still very--we felt it was the most interesting one we had because there were several other titles that we were considering. scott: such as? kris: "finding harold," which is the name of the matterhorn yeti. joe: it's a roller coaster. it's about roller coasters. kris: about rides, so that's why we decided on it. scott: and "roller coaster" had been taken due to that movie back in, what, the '70s? jon: that george segal movie, we were talking about that. what did you think of that movie? kris: i wasn't alive. jon: oh yeah. okay, i was in the theater. i saw it when i was a teenager. carry on. scott: i was worried if you talk too much about it, we'd have to find a clip from it. it would be very, very difficult to find. okay, so aero development, the matterhorn, the teacups, small world, pirates of the caribbean, dumbo, mr. toad, autotopia, they all had something to do with that? kris: absolutely. aero actually built them all in a shop on moffat boulevard in mountain view, which is still there to this day. it's now a car garage. and they were just all built by hand. scott: nobody knows that. kris: nobody knows that. and that's the best part about the story is that nobody actually knows this great thing that everyone's been on these

rides, or at least is aware of them, yet no one actually knows the story behind them. the four men who started hendy iron works in sunnyvale, it's a local company that said, "you know what? we got the startup bug. we're going to start our own manufacturing company." and lo and behold, walt disney shows up one day and says, "i like what you guys are doing. i'd like to buy some rides from you." scott: that's phenomenal. joe: so, they initially started out as just manufacturing, there's an iron works shop, and-- kris: right, they started off as four employees from hendy iron works in sunnyvale, working on world war ii battleships, cannons, torpedoes, that sort of thing. and they said, "you know, we don't really like this place anymore. it's not really run, like, as well as we'd like it to be." so, they decided to buy some land, they created their own shop in mountain view, and just started building whatever they could for the us military. and they started dabbling in carousels. and it caught the attention-- because that's what you do, right? scott: i'm offering the military carousels. kris: you'd be surprised. joe: i'd say i would be. kris: and so that's what they did. and they started--kept, you know, tinkering and tinkering away. and eventually, they hear that there's this businessman from

missouri who's building this amusement park in anaheim in some orange groves, and they said, "well, okay, why don't we try sending him some pamphlets?" joe: go all the way to the end. what happens at the end? are they still around? do they still make rides? or if not, what was their last big one that we've heard of? kris: so, aero developments went out of business officially in 1980, however continued as aerodynamics and built some other different attractions that people may or may not be familiar with. the viper at six flags magic mountain, guaranteed to make you sick, as well as x, which is their fourth-dimension coaster. basically, it's a seat sitting on the end of the track, as opposed to on top of, and the seats can flip throughout the ride. scott: oh my god. jon: can i ask you a deep philosophical question? kris: sure. jon: what is the enduring popularity of a roller coaster? you're talking about people vomiting, being terrified. i guess horror films also might fall in that genre. is that--i mean, why are they still popular when everything seems to change in society? kris: well, you know, the two other producers of the film, robert ingel and nicholas laskowicz, they would i think agree with me on this that it's twofold. one is there's the thrill factor, of course.

you know, the whole thing talking about vomiting, but also just the fun of it. but also the beauty of them. there is an inherent beauty in the way that the rides are curved. the giant dipper in santa cruz, for example, is one of the most beautiful roller coasters ever because of its setting. but the fact that the way it is, the architecture, i just don't--you can't really put a finger on it. scott: i'm just astonished that there was an iron works in sunnyvale. i think we--well, we as journalists ought to do a better--we ought to do what kris is doing, and that is document the history of what has happened in this valley in that way. because i think there are a lot of companies. i mean, everything from google to yahoo! to apple. well, apple i suppose has been documented fairly well. but we ought to be able to look back at these old things and say, "here's the things that we came from." kris: absolutely. you look at, for example, fairchild semiconductor, which was born, of course-- >> scott: traitorous eight. kris: and the traitorous eight. and then they, fairchild, goes on to build intel eventually. and then intel goes on to spawn--you know, who knows what they've done.

the same thing with aero. you're talking about a company that four guys started that has spawned on so many other companies that are still doing rides not only in the united states, but across the world. they influenced ride construction for decades. jon: what's the best roller coaster ride in the world now? kris: oh see, now you're going to guarantee me to make 99% of enthusiasts angry. jon: the one that everybody-- what is the holy roller coaster? kris: the mecca, you could say, of roller coasters continues to be cedar point in sandusky, ohio. that being said, northern california has a very nice collection of rides these days, and it certainly could hold its own in many other regions. scott: let's refine jon's question then. if in northern california, what is the one, okay, i'm going to ride one roller coaster, kris? kris: i'm a sucker for history, as you can probably tell. santa cruz, giant dipper, hands down put me on a marathon on it. scott: old wooden shake your teeth out. kris: an old wooden coaster. not necessarily shake your teeth out, actually. a good wooden coaster should not shake your teeth out.

it shows some attitude, but it should move as smooth as a steel coaster. scott: with a kind of a nice finish. kris: yes, a nice polish. jon: you sound like you're describing a beer or something. scott: exactly. so, kris rowberry's movie at least for now is called "the legacy of aero development." kris: and i should correct you, it's actually american coaster enthusiasts' film. nicholas laskowicz, robert ingel, and i are just producers on the film. scott: that is such a better title. kris rowberry, thank you for being with us. we'll be back in just a minute. [music]

microsoft says it will now tell you if state-sponsored actors trying to hack your email, our government, someone else's. it's doing so after a very smart reporter discovered microsoft had, in the past, known its customers had been attacked, but did not tell them. that very smart reporter is joe menn. his investigators for-- investigation rather

for reuters led to big changes at microsoft. i think i read about this in every newspaper there was, but you were the guy who figured it out. explain to me, they knew but didn't tell, why not? joe: two former employees-- well, let me say i have different sources for different bits of the story. two people very familiar with what happened said that microsoft executives were very concerned that there would be retaliation from the chinese government if-- scott: microsoft's business in china? joe: right. so you know, google famously started doing this in 2012, but if google has to warn you about china, google is-- google search is already gone from china. so, microsoft has a lot more skin in the game. microsoft does a fair amount of business in china. and if they were to warn people that the chinese government, in this case, was reading their email, things might go badly

for them in china. that's what they were worried about. jon: you know what also ratchets things up with the chinese president was in redmond. they were hosting part of it as a tech conference. joe: right. so, microsoft has--again, they've got more money at stake, it's a bigger deal for them, they've got a different model. but microsoft has worked hard to stay in the good graces of the chinese government. scott: google has always told them. does apple? i mean, apple's got a big business in china. does apple tell its users about state-sponsored hacking? joe: i don't know the answer to that. i looked mainly at internet companies, and there's been a slew quite recently. so, google was the first, yahoo!, facebook, and twitter all since october have said that they will start doing this. and 9 days after i called microsoft for a response to my story, they announced that they will start doing it. scott: joe menn, we thank you for doing that. as internet users, we thank you for doing that. we're jealous of your scoop, though. that's our show for this week. my thanks to my guests.

i'm scott mcgrew, and thank you for making us part of your sunday morning. [music] announcer: "press:here" is sponsored in part by barracuda networks, cloud-connected security and storage solutions that simplify it. city national bank, providing loans and lines of credit to help northern california businesses grow.

an trujillo: hello, and welcome to "comunidad del valle." i am damian trujillo. and today, "placas" is back on the show. plus, the music of my great and late friend, rudy madrid. on your "comunidad del valle." male announcer: nbc bay area presents "comunidad del valle," with damian trujillo. damian: we begin today with the magic that is happening over at the victoria theatre in san francisco. with me back on "comunidad del valle" is my good friend ariana lopez, of course, of legendary fame in her acting career. bienvenida, welcome back to the show. ariana lopez: thank you, thank you, damian. damian: well, tell me what has happened, because i know that when you had your monologue show, you had it for a certain days, then you had to extend it, and extend it, and extend it because people were just coming. how did that go? ariana: it was fantastic. it has been a really good experience this last year. finally, we create our own company, called tres