this sunday, economic jitters after the dow drops 800 points. >> the dow average plummeting 3%. >> a steep droll on wall street today. >> the record ten-year-old expansion may be nearing an end. >> questions raised about the fate of the economy with a reportedly rattled president trump counting on a strong one for 2020. >> you have no choice but to vote for me because your 401(k)s, down the tubes. >> my guest this morning, president trump's chief economic adviser, larry kudlow. plus, taking on president trump from the left. i'll talk to presidential candidate beto o'rourke. >> we must take the fight direct

to the source of this problem. that is donald trump. >> and on the right, former congressman mark sanford, focused on the growing national debt. >> i would say at this point, yes. >> also, our brand new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll on president trump, his election prospects, and his ability to handle a crisis. finally, power politics. the fight over congresswoman rashida tlaib's grandfather in the west bank. how president trump is turning it into an issue that divides republicans and democrats. joining us today, peggy noonan, joshua johnson, carol lee, and yamiche alcindor. welcome to sunday. it's "meet the press." >> reporter: this is "meet the press" with chuck todd.

good sunday morning. throughout his presidency, donald trump has had one powerful and faithful ally, the economy. more than anything else, he has counted on the economy to help overcome doubt about his style and carry him to re-election. but that ally may be deserting him. this week's stock market tumble was not entirely mr. trump's doing. by friday, some of that loss was recovered. but the drop can be tied to the uncertainty that has been caused by the trade war mr. trump has launched against china. the question for the president, will his supporters, who have either embraced or simply accepted some of his norm-breaking presidency, be as forgiving of all of those breaking of norms if the economy falters. our new nbc news/wall street jumpbl po journal poll has the president's approval rating dipping a bit, 43% approving. that 43% sits at the lower end of his narrow trading range, rarely moving two or three points from one month to the

next. but look at this. at the end of 2015 before the trump presidency, americans supported free trade by a relatively narrow ten-point margin. now with president trump backing away from free trade, fighting china with tariffs with no end in sight, american support for free trade has quadrupled by a margin of 64/27, a 40-point spread. while some of those changes are likely due to democrats reflexively opposing anything the president does, some of it also reflects voter anxiety, all of which "the washington post" reports has left the president a bit rattled, as he tries to assure supporters that the economy remains as strong as ever. >> you have no choice but to vote for me because your 401(k)s, down the tubes, everything's going to be down the tubes. >> reporter: president trump trying to warn voters that if he loses, the stock market will plummet after a week when it did on his watch. >> the dow average plummeting

3%. >> a major selloff here on wall street today. >> growing recession fears. >> reporter: mr. trump has banked on a strong economy, making it a central argument for his re-election. >> perhaps the greatest economy we've had in the history of our country. if our opponents ever got into office, instead of being up 62%, instead of those 401(k)s of yours being up 60, 70, 80, 90%, crash, big crash. >> reporter: and congressional republicans have persistently forgiven the president's political weaknesses, arguing that for voters in 2020, it'll be the economy, stupid. >> great prosperity, 50-year low unemployment. that's what the election i think is going to be about. >> reporter: but now with the economy weakening, despite low unemployment, mr. trump, who says he isn't worried, is showing signs of alarm. relentless attacking the chair of the federal reserve. >> if we had a fed that would lower interest rates, it would

be like a rocket ship. jay powell should be cutting rates. jay powell's made a big mistake. >> reporter: and announcing he'll delay his latest tariff threat on china until mid-december. voters have given mr. trump his highest marks on the economy, but he may have little room to grow. among the 9% of voters who disapprove of mr. trump overall but approve of his handling of the economy, 73% prefer a democratic candidate for president, just 5% say trump should be re-elected. anxious about a downturn, mr. trump, who has long campaigned on the politics of grievance, is dialing up the culture war on immigration -- >> give your tired and poor who can stand on their own two feet. >> reporter: on race -- >> obviously headed up by elijah cummings. they've run baltimore into the ground. >> reporter: now on the politics of zraisrael. on thursday, he tweeted it would show great weakness if israel

allowed muslim congresswomen omar and tlaib to visit. >> the things they've said, omar, tlaib, what they've said is disgraceful. so i can't imagine why israel would let them in. >> this is a president who is fueling such vicious divisiveness and treating sittg membs of congress in a way -- i don't care what party you are, this is wrong. >> and joining me now is the president's chief economic adviser, director of the national economic council, larry kudlow. welcome back to meet the press, sir. >> thank you, chuck. appreciate it. >> let me start with what you see from the white house, the private sector seems to be concerned about particularly the trade war with china, that there are some rough waters ahead, maybe a recession, that those odds have risen. what do you see? >> well, i tell you what, i sure don't see a recession. we had some blockbuster retail

sales, consumer numbers towards the back end of last week. really blockbuster numbers. in fact, despite a lot of worries with the volatile stock market, most economists on wall street towards the end of the week had been markinup their forecasts for the third and fourth quarter. that echoes our view. you know, what we've got here, consumers are working at higher wages. they are spending at a rapid pace. they're actually saving also while they're spending. that's an ideal situation. so i think actually the second half of the economy is going to be very good in 2019. no, i don't see a recession. and let me add just one theme, chuck. just one theme. we're doing pretty darn well, in my judgment. let's not be afraid of optimism. let's not be afraid of optimism. >> fair enough.

>> it's a sign of our times. i think there's a very optimistic economy going on out there. >> do you acknowledge that one of the reasons businesses out there are not spending the money i think you thought they were going to be spending on expansion because of the concern about what's happening with china? isn't that putting some guardrails or some small "g" governors on this economic expansion? >> well, i want to get back to the china thing because there are some posite developments, believe it or not, on that front. in terms of business spending and business investment spendi, which as you know is a key part of the economy, look, a lot of the slowdown we've seen in so-called cap x, capital investment, is really temporary because oil prices dropped down. so the big oil patch, fracking and so forth, was not as rapid in the last year.

we're down, what, $55, $60 a barrel, which is a good number, i might add. for consumers, gasoline prices are very low. but the oil, gas, fracking boom has leveled off a wee bit. on the other hand, we're seeing a nice pickup, i think, in durable goods and manufacturing. we're also seeing now, i think, intellectual property, which escorted gdp. that thing is growing at about 10%, 12% annual rate. let me come back. the consumer part of this thing, 10% at an annual rate last three month, we're going to get a blockbuster number in the third quarter. so look, i don't deny that the energy sector has slowed a wee bit as prices have come back. on the other hand, money is flowing into the united states. we're the hottest, really the only game in town. and i think that's a very positive development, and we're seeing some pickup in

manufacturing jobs and construction jobs as well. and incidentally, chuck, one last point, low interest rate, which is across the spectrum s a very good thing for housing, for construction, for automobile sales. so low interest rates, no inflation, virtually no inflation, chuck todd. so i think it's a pretty good story. and again, let me echo my theme. let's not be afraid of some optimism. >> okay. you say that, but you actually said that in 2007 right before the second worst downturn in american history. this is what you wrote. there's no recession coming. this is in december of '07. the pessimistas were wrong. it's not going to happen. the bush boom is alive and well. it's finishing up its sixth consecutive year with more to

come. so i admire your optimism, but the data is pointing in another direction. >> well, i plead guilty to that late 2007 forecast. by the way, every other forecaster -- >> you weren't alone. that's right. you weren't alone. >> they were all there. however, just a wee bit of kudlow defense now. by february and march on cnbc in those days, i did go to the recession call. so i will plead that i did see it. i don't know that anybody saw that kind of crash. but look, this is not then. this is not then. our banks are well capitalized. our financial system is in very good shape. and i must say, the president is transforming and rebuilding this economy. he deserves enormous credit, a new policy of lower taxes and regulation and energy opening and trade reform. you know, we didn't quite get to 3%, but look, chuck, first two years of the obama administration, we were just a hair below 3%.

we're moving in the same direction. and let's be honest here. we've faced severe monetary tightening, seven rate hikes in 2017 and 2018. i don't think all that was necessary. it's a miracle we were able to continue as well as we're doing. and again, bond rates are falling, 100 basis point decline. that's good for mortgages. that's good for business. i think the federal reserve is going to now be following through, lower interest rates at the low end because the bond rates have fallen. that's the way that game usually works. i think that's going to be a big help. >> immaterial want to turn to . right before you took the job with the president, you wrote the following. tariffs are really tax hikes. they have almost never worked as intended, and have almost always delivered an unhappy ending. and i bring that quote back that you and arthur laffer and

stephen moore wrote together. again, march of '18. you took the job six weeks later. when you pulled back the tariffs earlier this week, delayed them until december, isn't that an acknowledgment that you're convincing the president that tariff are tax hikes? >> well, let me say a couple things on that tricky business. our group was referring to the steel tariffs. but look, i think china is a very special situation. i think president trump is working hard to defend the american economy against unfair trading practices and unlawful trading practices and intellectual property theft and forced transfer technology and so forth. china is a very special case. and we have to defend american interests, whether it's farming or manufacturing or automobiles or technology. you know this story. you've been covering it. so regarding tariffs, i will say

this. what president trump has talking me and others, and i think there's a consensus growing, a bipartisan consensus growing, the china story has to be changed and reformed. we cannot let china pursue these unfair and unreciprocal trading practices. >> larry kudlow, the president's chief economic adviser. much appreciate you coming on and sharing your views, sir. thanks very much. >> don't be afraid of optimism, chuck. >> all right, larry. in the wake of the mass shootings in dayton and his hometown of el paso, my next guest, former congressman beto o'rourke, has decided to retool his campaign a bit. he wants to focus more forcefully on taking on president trump, which will take him to places outside of iowa and new hampshire. beto o'rourke joins me now live from little rock, arkansas. congressman o'rourke, welcome back to "meet the press." >> thanks for having me on. >> before i get to your campaign, i want to ask you a china question. you're elected president.

you know that there's many democrats, many in this country want to see a different, a tougher stance against china than has been taken in previous administrations. a lot of people don't think this tactic is working. how would you both get tough on china without impacting the world economy? >> you're right. this current trade war that the president has entered our country into is not working. it is hammering the hell out of farmers across this country who do not want bailouts or payoffs. they just want to make a profit in what they're growing and be able to have those markets again that they worked a lifetime to create. the american consumer understands that these tariffs are a tax on them. one of the greatest tax increases on the middle class in the history of this country. so yes, we need to hold china accountable. but when have we ever gone into a war, military war or trade war, without allies or friends and partners?

let's make sure that we bring our friends in the european union, canada, and mexico and others and bring a united front against china to make sure that they respect the rules of the road, that they respect our economy, our farmers, and our workers. that's the best possible way to come to a conclusion that benefits our economy and ensures that we have a stable global economy going forward. because i'm afraid that this president is driving the global economy and our economy into recession. >> in hindsight, was it a mistake to back out of tpp? what you just described was the transpacific partnership. it was basically uniting asian-pacific countries, not named china, into one trade pact. >> i think tpp was a great concept. i think the particulars weren't there yet. for example, we did not have sufficient standards for labor, including in mexico, where workers are paid 40 or 50 bucks a week putting the american worker at a competitive

disadvantage. if we don't have high labor standards with those countries that we're trading and enforce those labor standards, if we don't have high environment standards, if we don't have high standards for human rights, then we really don't have fair trade around the world. in my administration, we'll make sure those standards are high, that they're enforced, and we have markets to which we can export what we grow and make in the united states. >> let me move to your reboot. let me beblunt. you don't retool a campaign. you don't say it that way if you think things were going swimmingly. you've acknowledged you feel as if you hadn't been talking about the issue that you think you should be talking about more, and that's president trump. explain what you weren't doing before that you think you'll be doing better now. >> from the outset of this campaign, even before this campaign, i talked about how dangerous president trump's open racism is, the mexicans as rapists and criminals, the muslims who should be banned from this country, how it

doesn't just offend us but it changes us. the rise in hate crimes every single one of the last three years, the mosque in victoria, texas, burned to the ground the day after he signs his executive order attempting to ban muslim travel. but it wasn't until someone inspired by donald trump drove more than 600 miles to my hometown and killed 22 people in my community with a weapon of war, an ak-47 that he had no business owning, that no american should own unless they're on a battlefield engaged with the enemy. it wasn't until that moment that i truly understood how critical this moment is and the real consequence and cost of donald trump. and i saw it again yesterday in mississippi in a community where nearly 700 people working in chicken processing plants, one of the toughest jobs in america, were raided, detained, taken from their kids, humiliated, hog tied for a crime of being in

this country, doing a job that no one else will do. there is a concerted, organized attack against immigrants, against people of color, against those who do not look like or pray like or love like the majority in this country. and this moment will define us one way or another. and if we do not wake up to it, i am convinced that we'll lose america, this country, in our sleep. and we cannot allow that to happen. >> i feel like this is a conundrum that faces many of you running for president, which is on one hand, you see the president in some ways as an existential threat to the american story, our culture. so does it seem silly at times to be debating whether or not there should be a public option when you feel as if the president is a bigger threat on other issues? is that what's made this campaign sometimes seem tonally off for the entire field at times? >> no, because i'll tell you, if we don't deliver on universal, guaranteed, high-quality health care, on a minimum wage that's a

living wage, on paid family leave, on those issues that restore dignity to the lives of our fellow americans, then we have not only failed them, we have provided fertile ground for the kind of demagogue that donald trump is, who will channel that anger and frustration at our government's dysfunction and our inability to get something done against immigrants as he's done, warning of invasions and infestations and animals and predators. having somebody at one of his rallies say we should shoot them and the crowd roars their assent and donald trump smiles because he doesn't want you to focus on the fact you're working two or three jobs right now just to make ends meet or that you live in the wealthiest country on the face of the planet but can't afford to take care of your diabetes. yes, democrats have to address those issues and deliver on those issues, but we also have to call out the existential threat, to use the word you just employed, that donald trump represents right now. not only are we going to lose

more live, i'm confident that we will lose this country and our democracy the longer he says in office. so that is the urgency behind what i'm talking about. >> talk to your supporters for a minute here. as much as i get the fact that you might feel a bit boxed in just campaigned in iowa and new hampshire when the questions and issues are the same, that's still where you get your delegates. that's still how you get the nomination. iowans sometimes punish people that don't campaign in the state enough. how are you going to win this nomination, going about it in a national campaign like this? >> i love campaigning in iowa. so grateful for the people i've met, the volunteers or our team who are knocking on doors right now. i will be back in iowa. but the people of iowa, the people of this country want me to show up and be there for everyone, not count anybody off because their state is last in the nomination selection process. that's why i was in mississippi yesterday. that's why i'm in arkansas today. that's why i'm going to oklahoma

later this evening. if everyone counts, we can't just say that, we have to demonstrate that. and i don't think at a time that this campaign, this selection for who will be the nominee has become nationalized, that that will be lost on the people of iowa. they care just as much as i do or the people of arkansas about making sure that everyone is heard, everyone has a seat at the table. coming from el paso, texas, a community that was rarely, if ever, visited, i know what that feels like to be left behind. but i also know what it feels like when someone finally shows up. i'm going to be that candidate that shows up for everyone in america. >> all right. beto o'rourke, the former congressman that represents el paso, texas. thanks for coming on and sharing your views. be safe on the campaign trail. >> thanks, chuck. when we come back, two big stories. the economy and 2020. the economy and 2020. and what's the we're pretty different. we're all unique in our own ways. somos muy diferentes. muy diferentes. (vo) verizon knows everyone in your family is different.

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welcome back. panel is here. joshua johnson, host of 1a on npr, peggy noonan, carol lee, and white house correspondent for the pbs news hour, yamiche alcindor. let's talk about how the president has handled the aftermath of the shootings in el paso and dayton. i want to put up some comparisons. here they are. after oklahoma city, this was the entire country. 84% approve, democrats, republicans, incompetentdepende. that's everyone. here's katrina. everybody's memory of it is pretty negative. believe it or not, that's 48/48. so not great but not as bad as you probably remember. look at this, though. after el paso and dayton, the president's handling, 52%. it's been the same number when we've measured it after

pittsburgh. majority of the country does not like the way he handles these moments. it does call all of his leadership into question when these moments happen. >> well, one of the lines of the presidency, of president trump, is people wonder what impact has he had on really making these things happen, not how he'll hand it will. the question is not will president trump say the right things, it's whether or not what you said impacted this person wanting to go into walmart and specifically target latino shoppers and kill them. so i think this president also in a lot of people's minds lacks moral credibility. that's even among supporters. when i talk to white evangelicals in the south, they say we like him, he's good for the economy, but i say, would you want your child to be like him? do you think he's a role model? they would sit back and say, i don't really want to answer that question. that's what those numbers show. even if you like president trump, you realize his rhetoric is problematic. >> you brought up the yeah but, which is the economy. we saw the yeah but this

weekend. i think we have an idea of what the president is going to do if the economy goes south. i'm going to get to that in a few minutes. but larry kudlow did not seem as reassuring that it was smooth say thing ahead. >> no, he kept saying, we need optimism. everyone should be optimistic. there's not going to be any recession but didn't really have any a a lot of concrete answers for how that's going to be avoided. we know the president is worried about this. we know the president's advisers think that his re-election hinges on how the economy is performing and it needs to be a strong economy for him to win re-election. his polls consistently show that his handling of the economy is approved of far more than whether his general approval or on any other issue. you've also seen whether it's republicans or people who sort of hold your nose and vote for trump crowd, they've stuck with him through some of the rhetoric and the thing he's done that they don't like because they say, oh, you know, he does that,

but look at the economy. what happens to those folks? you know, do they stick with him? do they turn on him? it's real risky for him. >> it is. i think in a merely political sense, if the economy turns down the 2020 presidential election will become more brutal, more ugly, more about other primal -- >> no, i'm going to get to that. i think that's exactly what we saw this week. >> i noticed what carol said. three times larry kudlow said let's not be afraid of optimism. he kept slamming away at that. he wanted that to be your takeaway. that makes me nervous. that sounds like a thing we've decided we're putting out there. it sounds like prosperity is just around the corner. it sounds like one of those hollow things they want out there in a headline. boy, it's just looking a little unsteady, i think, economically. perhaps people are having less

confidence than they've had in the past two years. >> and to the point of confidence, one thing that mr. kudlow did not mention, which was a big economic indicator that apparently everyone but the administration has been worried about, is something called the inverted yield curve. >> you're going to drop the yield curve on us? look at you. i'm still trying to figure out if americans know the yield time. >> driving around d.c., that's a good question. the inverted yield curve basically says, and i wrote this down, that the interest rates on short-term bonds are higher than interest rates on long-term bonds. basically, it means that investors are worried about near-term prosperity and want to put their money in a gopher hole where they know it will be safe when they come back to it years later. that's not always a sign that a recession is coming. many recessions have been preceded by an inverted yield curve. so it's not a guarantee. but there are signs that volatility is up and down, and the inverted yield curve is moving and passive investing is getting more popular than active investing. people are like, let me just put my money in an index fund

because i know it's going to get a return back. i wonder whether the indicators that mr. kudlow mentioned are going to move the needle, especially for the voters who are more transactional with president trump, who are able to do the yeah but. i interviewed a guy in michigan and asked him, how has president trump been for your econom prosperity? he's got a manufacturing business, a roofing business. booming like crazy. he says, it's been great for my business. then i asked him, would you do business with donald trump? he said, i'd get half the money first. >> we talked about, peggy, sort of i think alluded to this, yamiche, the morning after the 800-point drop. the president decides to weigh in on what israel should do with the two congresswomen, omar and tlaib. we can decide whether it's a coincidence or not, but that's the timeline there. alluding to what peggy said, if the economy goes south, we know where he's going to go.

culture war. >> we know where he's going to go if the economy is good. culture war. the reason he does that, the people i talk to all over this country, you can say you support the president despite the fact that women have said he sexually assaulted them, despite the fact he's sent racist tweets, despite the fact he's separated thousands of immigrant families from their children, if you can support the president and say the economy is the reason i'm doing this, there's usually culture war stuff that's speaking to you. i was just in dayton, ohio, where people said, yeah, i love the way the president is talking about the economy, but you know what, i've also been telling my neighbor, if you don't like this country, you should leave. i've been saying that if years. now here's the president telling me that's okay. i think underlying the people say the economy is what's driving them to support the president, they also are in some ways excited by the rhetoric. that doesn't mean everybody is. but for a lot of people, there's a venn diagram where they like both. >> you sort of reinforced what peggy is saying. it's going to get nastier when there isn't the rationale, the

economy in front of it. you can put up a facade going, yeah, i don't know if i like that stuff. if the facade is gone, you have to say what you believe. >> you know, i think part of the economic problem here is the people who make big economic decisions are feeling insecure, and part of the reason they're feeling insecure is that in the white house, the president has no sense that he should operate as an old, wise, steady hand. he's out there tweeting and expressing and this and that. it's all jangling what's already a jangly atmosphere. >> that's why the consumer confidence that larry kudlow has might not last. when we come back, the when we come back, the former republican governor and ...timing is everything. so why wait? start farxiga now. farxiga, along with diet and exercise,... ...helps lower a1c in adults with type 2 diabetes.

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welcome back. when a president has an approval rating in his own party of 86%, as president trump does in our latest nbc news/"wall street journal" poll, it doesn't suggest a primary challenge offers much prospect for victory. that hasn't stopped former governor mark well, and it may not stop mark sanford, who was ousted from congress in a primary challenge last year, says he's closer to taking on the president, driven mostly by concern about the growing debt and the president's character. mark sanford joins me now. governor, welcome back. >> pleasure. >> why should we take this idea seriously from you? >> because, a, the conversation you were just having on the economy i think very much ties into this. b, i think we've lost our roots as republicans, and there needs to be a conversation about what it means to be a republican. and a lot of folks that you talk to in the polls, the same people that say 86% approve, you look at the numbers and, for

instance, the latest poll in new hampshire, roughly half of those folks said he needs to be challenged bauds challenged because we need to have that conversation within the republican party. >> what is that conversation? his character and the debt? >> it's more than just the debt. going back to what's happening in the economy at large in this country and the world, you know, what do we believe in terms of trade? in other words, there's been a radical departure from what republicans have traditionally believed o than route. what do we believe on spending and deficits? radical departure on that front. and the topsy turvy is what day are we going to get in the white house? business, to make investment, needs stability. >> you probably aren't the best vehicle for that, but you're doing it. is there a better candidate out there? >> i'm sure there is. i'm sure there are lots of them. but this conversation began the day after my primary loss last june. a friend called and said, god just cleared your calendar for a

reason. i know what it is. you need to primary the president. >> that was literally the first? >> after losing. >> because of trump. trump basically cost you re-election. >> i said, that's preposterous, that's crazy. but there's been a drum beat from people i admire, people who are not crazy, saying we need to have this conversation. >> here's what former staffers and allies have said. matt moore says it's almost impossible to primary sitting president successfully. your formers spokesperson said it doesn't seem to be the most serious minded way to get back into the conversation. but he calls it definitely the splashiest. is this a vanity project? >> absolutely not. i mean, the idea of going out and possibly being a human pinata is hardly a vanity project. >> the president will go through every personal foible. you know that. >> i'd say no, but it is a project on behalf of my four

sons. the route we're going right now not only has implications in terms of republican party going forward, but real implications in terms of every young person's ability to stay in the american dream. if you look at the debt and receive it numbers right now, we're in troubling waters that have not only implications of the economy here and now and what's going to happen nex but frankly their ability to build wealth over time. >> why do you stay in the republican party? >> because i'm a republican. a lot of people said, well, if you're going to run, run as an independent. no, i'm a republican. the republican party has a great lineage of historically doing some great things right, but it's gone off the tracks of late. we have a personality at odds with the people who have worked for years and years in the vineyard trying to make a difference in advancing the conservative cause. >> it's unlikely you would succeed in actually winning the nomination. i mean, the process is already being -- some people would call it rigged, but he's in charge of the party. there may not even be a primary

allowed in your state. you're not even going to be allowed to compete for delegates. so what does success look like for your candidacy? >> you can compete for ideas though. if we begin a national conversation on where in the world are we going with unprecedented levels of debt, unprecedented levels of deficit going forward, unprecedented levels of spending, where are we going as a republican party in terms of what comes next? if we're to have a conversation on trade and what it means, whether it's important in charleston or in new hampshire or a host of other places across this country, i think it's a needed debate. i think the more, the merrier. i'm glad bill wells and others do. i'm sure there are much better candidates, but we've got soft this conversation as a nation and as republicans. >> it sounds like you believe the president has hasn't earned re-election yet. >> no. >> does he deserve re-election? >> i would say no because i would argue that he's taking us in the wrong direction. just take one indicator. if you look at the business investment numbers over the last couple month, they've been

cratering. that's reality. in part, the reason they're cratering is nobody knows what's going to come next in terms of trade, and nobody knows what's going to come next out of the white house in terms of policy. that's not the kind of environment where businesses invest. so i think that there are any number of different things where you'd say, no, we need a course correction, and we need to have a conversation about the kour correction. >> if you're unsuccessful, are you going to support him for president? >> yeah, i'm a republican. >> so you realize those two things -- you just said you don't think he deserves re-election. he's taking us in the wrong direction. but you're still going to be able to vote for him over joe biden? >> everything is relative in politics. with all due respect to warren, the policies that she laid out will exacerbate the problem on spending and the debt and the deficit. >> you feel the same way about a joe biden who may be taking a more moderate approach? >> i've not seen him not embrace a lot of what she's talking about. the progressive wing of the democratic party is leading the charge. you can see it in the polls of late. so i'm not seeing a great differentiation there. but i may be missing it.

>> what would keep you from doing this? you're not saying i'm definitely doing this. labor day is around the corner. what would stop you? >> my four sons. >> okay. >> if they're decidedly against it, i won't. >> at this point? >> they're mixed. some of them are for it, some are against it. it is daunting. it goes back to what we just mentioned a moment ago, bringing, dredging up a lot of things they don't want to deal with and i don't want to deal wi with. >> if this doesn't work out, are you done with elected office? >> i think so. time to go back to the business world i used to be a part of. >> all right. mark sanford. when are we going to find this answer out? this week? >> by labor day. it's creeping up fast. >> a couple more weeks. okay. pleasure. mark sanford, good to see you. if you get out there, stay safe on the trail. >> yes, sir. when we come back, speed dating the democratic candidates. candidates. what bir order and home stat

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welcome back. data download tile. let's face it, keeping track of 20-plus democratic presidential candidates can feel overwhelming. watching the debates and campaign appearances is a lot like speed dating. time is short and you need to get to know people fast. not to worry, data download is here to help. the first question you might ask is, where are you from? well, they were born in 11 different states, the district of columbia, one u.s. territory, and one foreign country, india for michael bennett. none of the candidates were born in virginia. in a state that has actually given birth to eight u.s. president, the most of any states. tim ryan was born in ohio, the birthplace of seven past presidents. five were born in new york, the same amount of current 2020 democratic candidates born in the empire state this cycle. and for those of you who believe birth order is destiny, middle

children tulsi gabbert and kirsten gillibrand might have a leg up. the 2020 democratic field stands out for the number of first born, seven of them, and last born children, ten of them. there's only one only child in the bunch, pete buttigieg. if he beats president trump, he'd be the first ever only child to inhabit the white house. there have been many with only half brothers and half sisters, but never one who was his parents' true one and only kid. next, where did you go to school? seven graduated from the ivies, traditionally the breeding grounds of presidents. eight from private universities and colleges. four from state schools. and marianne williamson stands alone as the only without a bachelor's degree, which puts her in good company. 12 presidents, including george

washington, and abraham lincoln, did not graduate from college. of course, the american dream says it doesn't matter where you were born or who your family was. anyone can become president of the united states. but if you look at the numbers, it all sounds most promising for kirsten gillibrand. she's a middle child, ivy lead grad from new york. same said, that's said for another name on the ballot next november, donald j. trump. when we dear tech, let's talk. we have a pretty good relationship. you've done a lot of good for the world. but i feel like you have the potential to do so much more. can we build ai without bias? how do we bake security into everything we do? we need tech that helps people understand each other. that understands my business. we've got some work to do. and we need your help. we need your support. let's expect more from technology. let's put smart to work.

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back now with end game. a little bit on the presidential race. beto o'rourke, the reboot,

thoughts? >> we've kind of seen this before with other candidates. reminds me of rudy giuliani in 2008, doing his florida or bust kind of gimmick thing to try to work around a system that wasn't working for him. this sounds very similar. it also could work for him in the sense it puts him in front of audiences and he gets a following. but it's not the path to the nomination. >> the idea that there's a concerted attack against immigrants and people of color in this country, that's what a lot of democratic voters want to hear. frankly, that's what democrats are going to be able to say regardless of what president trump is doing, even if the economy is going well. they can make that argument. i almost hear him say that the issue, of course, is all the other democratic candidates are going to be doing that. the fact you have to do a reboot and it's the second or third reboot gives me pause, if anything else. >> i should say, he didn't answer your question. he told you what he's going to do, but you asked him what he's going to do better.

and he did not answer that. he said the democrats are going to be focusing on delivering on health care, living wage, paid family leave, where we have provided fertile ground for a demagogue like trump. he talked about making sure allies respect the rules of the road for trade. no american should own an ak-47 unless they're on a battlefield. that can come back to him if he gets the nomination. but he didn't answer your question about how he will improve his campaign, especially because he's so far down in the polls. i do think he's building this kind of ideological base. i hate to be crass, but after the shooting in el paso, he got a lot of television time where a lot of people could kind of get his passion and his empathy and his intensity about changing the culture in america. that might auger well for him. in terms of the nuts and bolts of the campaign, he didn't answer your question. >> i'll say this, he seemed more comfortable in his skin this time. whatever this is -- you know, so whether it works, i don't know, but he seemed more comfortable. >> well, he did. he's looking like he enjoys it.

he shows up and he says things, and then he shows up somewhere else and says things. maybe it's good for him to be sort of staying home in texas. thank you for your laughter, carol. he's staying home in texas. he's not in iowa and new hampshire. i guess he's saying i'm a texas guy. it underscores that. it's fine. i mean, there's something a little compelling about him and something a little kind of inane, vapid, i'm sorry. it's a combination of things that he's got going on. so let him do his thing. maybe in the future, that'll work for someone. >> let's go to the top tier. this is a really interesting split among biden, sanders, and warren. this is just among your positive ratings, among democratic voters. we split them up, under 50, over 50. among folks under 50, it's bernie sanders with the highest positive rating, followed by elizabeth warren. look at voters over 50 among democratic primary voters. joe biden suddenly gets to 70. sanders drops to 54.

warren, by the way, consistent at 61 there. yamiche, i know you've spent a lot of time covering sanders the last time. this time, that split isn't surprising. him falling behind warren is. >> it is surprising, and i've been talking to some people from both the bernie sanders campaign and elizabeth warren campaign. bernie sanders' camp is making the argument that his goal and his focus is still on joe biden, that when you poll people internally but also publicly, people say my second choice if i don't want bernie is joe biden. >> they see biden as in their way more than warren. >> they see biden as in their way more than warren. but the warren camp says, we understand there's an ideological connection there. you can hear it in their voice. they're really eyeing the bernie sanders voters. they're also eyeing everyone else's voters because they understand they're going to need to really eat up other voters to be able to be successful. i will go back to what beto o'rourke said, which is if president trump wins, we're going to lose the country. elizabeth warren's camp would

say, the country has been this way, that there are structural issues that have been at play in this country. that's the reason why we see institutional racism, why we see immigrants being able to be vilified. i think that's going to be an interesting point to make, that she's saying, i want broad, sweeping changes, but i want to understand the cultural things that are happening. bernie sanders is about broad sweeping changes and about eyeing joe biden. >> it's pretty clear that, carol, elizabeth warren won the summer. now the question is, how does she get the nomination? >> yeah, and she's consistently performed better. she gets better with every time she's out there on the campaign trail. she seems far more comfortable campaigning in her own skin than some of the other candidates. when you line her up against a biden and a sanders, she stands out. you can see why she would appeal to both people older than 50 and younger than 50, because she's progressive and she's energetic and a new face and she's also talking about medicare for all. she's kind of got something for everyone a little bit right now. what's interesting about the

numbers, biden's campaign also cites biden is second choice for berc bernie sanders voters. they see sanders is the place where they can grab votes from. they don't have an answer as much for her. >> i see it as elizabeth warren versus bernie to become the person, the leading person of the left against joe biden. i think elizabeth warren has kind of owned the summer. day by day, she just kind of made an impression. i also think she and kamala and others have done something interesting that maybe hasn't been noted, which is in a funny way, they've taken the women's issue off the table very quietly by how they dress and present themselves. there's no more talk as there was in 2016 of glass ceilings. a reporter emailed me and said that.

i thought, that's so interesting. i think that works in part for elizabeth. >> but in fairness if the senator were here, she'd say we're asking the wrong questions, that we should be focusing -- >> no matter what the question would be. >> she made a good point in terms of the detroit debate. you're always trying to pit us against one another. we need to be talking policy, the direction of the party. so maybe they can pick off some of those more centrist democrats who don't believe the party should be pulling as far left and send that herd and either one of them could go after joe biden saying, he's not facing in the direction the democratic party needs to face. >> all right. i'll pause the conversation there. thank you very much. before we go, quick programming note. tomorrow my colleague lester holt will be reporting from iran for a special edition of the "nbc nightly news." a rare inside look at the country and will talk exclusively with top officials, including the foreign minister. that's all we have for today. thank you for watching. we'll be back next week because if it's sunday, it's "meet the press."

train cars knocked over and more brutal heat ahead of humidity this week. >> no recession ahead in spite of what wall street says president trump is confident in his economy. >> i don't think we're having a recession. we're doing tremendously well. our consumers are rich i gave a tremendous tax cut. and they're loaded up with money. >> lots of pro democracy demonstrators rally in hong kong as china condemns u.s. lawmaker support increased global attention. >> meet the superstar actress with a household name you may not