good morning. it is sunday, october 18th. 7:00 on the dot. as we take a beautiful look outside cotton candy skies over levi's stadium this might be the first sunday night football on nbc we haven't had to worry about the air quality at levi's stadium. a great way to start our sunday morning. thank you for starting yours with us. i'm kira klapper. vianey arana joins us with a look at your microclimate forecast. i know we're talking about ever so slight drops in temperatures, but, boy, yesterday still was a scorcher.

[ no audio ] >> we will get back to vianey in just a few minutes. we do look forward to her forecast. first, we will get to 16 days until the election. tensions are boiling. a three speech rally in san francisco yesterday turned violent. "today in the bay's" sergio quintana was there. >> reporter: activists wearing red make america great again hats were able to speak only a few minutes before san francisco police pulled the plug just before philip anderson took the mic, this happened. he was hit in the mouth by someone dressed in black. in a live stream of the event by anderson's group you can see san francisco police voice concerns for their safety after he was hit. >> do you have an exit strategy? >> reporter: determined to carry

on with his demonstration, anderson, who traveled here from out of state, took the small stage and spoke briefly. >> -- it needs to end. it has to do with free speech. >> reporter: as the situation quickly unraveled with counterprotestors trying to pull down barricades and throwing objects, officers escorted the original group out and shuttled them to safety in a san francisco police van. anderson lost two teeth when he was hit and went to a local hospital. one of his allies has formed a go fund me to help fix his teeth. no arrests made. counterprotesters say their aim was to overwhelm the event. >> so we actually kicked them out. they were in front of the plaza. they had a stage. they had a lot of police presence. >> reporter: after the conservative group was whisked away to safety, the larger group remained and organized a short march on market street. in san francisco, sergio

quintana, nbc bay area news. yesterday was a day of action for women's equality. >> who's here because it's your body so it should be your choice? >> the march for our rights started at larkin and grove streets and ended at emba embarcadero. women's equality, getting women to the polls, and the black lives matter movement. women and men came from out of town to be a participate of this march. >> it feels like we're going backwards in a lot of key, important issues, and as a woman and as just a voter and a citizen of this united states of america, i feel as though we're divided and we're losing things that make us have human rights. >> i'm here to support all the women here because i feel they deserve the rights, everybody else has a right. >> this comes after a contentious week during the confirmation hearings, judge amy

coney barrett. many see her appointment to a threat to women's rights. a little more than two weeks away both president trump and rival joe biden are on the road trying to garner as many votes as they can. nbc' kelly o'donnell has a look. >> reporter: the fight for a second term starts in michigan. president trump trying to defend what was a surprise and narrow victory in the rust belt battleground. >> we're going to win the state of michigan. >> reporter: sprinting to election day, polling behind, the run hard strategy looks to recapture that outsider candidate persona. >> suburban women, you're supposed to love trump. i don't have time to be nice. i have a lot of work to do for you. >> reporter: the president's michigan stop follows biden's drive-in rally friday night. >> we don't panic. >> reporter: many already casting ballots with 43 states and the district of columbia

offering early options. the president let his anxiety show last night in macon, georgia. >> imagine if i lose? my whole life, what am i going to do? i lost to the worst candidate in the history of politics. >> reporter: that same georgia crowd witnessed a campaign controversy when senator david purdue up for re-election appeared to mockingly flub the name of his senate colleague kamala harris. >> the most insidious thing they are trying to perpetrate and, whatever. >> reporter: they call it a racist tactic. purdue's campaign said he simply mispronounced senator harris' name and didn't mean anything by it. >> reporter: that was kelly o'donnell reporting with us. we'll check back in with vianey for a peek at the forecast. the lovely woes of working from home. sometimes you have audio issues. for san francisco, 59 degrees.

wind speeds are calm right now throughout. livermore, 55. notice how we are cooler to start this morning. here is what we're monitoring heading into tonight and the workweek ahead. we have minor cooling, so a little bit of a cooldown especially for the coastline. not as cool for inland areas. and then we could see the return of elevated fire danger heading into the start of the workweek which means possibly more wind and an increase in that wind could also trigger new red flag warnings for the bay area. for today we're going to be seeing 80s and 90s for the interior valleys and finally some 70s around the coastline which will be a nice shift away from the 90s that san francisco has three consecutive days beating forecast highs. >> a lot of people can relate to that, vianey. we'll see you again soon. there is a startling revelation. cal fire announced the august

complex fire has burned more than 1 million acres. the fire still is burning in mendocino, humboldt, trinity, and glenn county. now it's in a league of its own at 1,032,000 acres. containment stands at 82%. thanks to our heroes for fighting that. in vacaville a five acre friday evening sparked along vine street. police say about 100 homes were evacuated in the area. the cause of that fire is under investigation. in other news a call to reopen classrooms in the east bay. yesterday afternoon parents of students in walnut creek rallied in support of getting kids back on campus in the mt. diablo unified school district. they argued many aren't responding well to distance learning. protesters tell us they want the district to come up with a plan and justify keeping kids at home now that restrictions have eased and private schools have

reopened. >> there are kids in private schools going back this coming monday. they have plans. sounds like the school district doesn't even have a plan together according to when i talked to him. we need our kids back in school. there's not a huge danger of covid for them. it can be done in a rational way that keeps everyone safe. >> a special meeting has been added this wednesday to discuss the push to reopen. here is a look at the number of new coronavirus cases reported in the bay area. the most confirmed cases were added in contra costa county with 57. san mateo at 56 new cases. san francisco, 54. napa, solano, santa clara counties did not report any new cases. well, first there was vandalism and then an exorcism. the archbishop performed that in san rafael yesterday. it happened outside of the church where people toppled the statue of junipero serra.

they said the site had been desecrated and it was to remove any evil. serra was one of the founders of the catholic mission system in california. many now see him as a symbol of oppression against native americans. at 7:09, we do have much more ahead on "today in the bay." live to our conversation with chuck todd who has a preview of this week's" meet the press." plus, a holdup murder suspect coaxed out using high tech. how police were able to arrest him without even going into his home.

welcome back. time now to bring in chuck todd, nbc news political director and moderator of "meet the press." thank you for joining us this morning. we are 16 days before the election. and when we look back in time two weeks before the 2016 presidential election, hillary clinton was leading donald trump

by an average of seven points. and, of course, that's not how it played out for clinton and the democrats. what similarities do you see? what differences do you see now with joe biden having a similar lead over the president? >> well, look, obviously the numbers make you think, boy, this looks a lot more of the same, not different, but there's a few different things. the biggest, the president is not the challenger, he's the incumbent. i've always said the biggest mistake that we in the media collectively made in 2016 was treating that election as if the voters were making a referendum on donald trump's character when actually it was a referendum on hillary clinton's character. we knew a lot of voters who didn't like both candidates picked trump. he was the challenger. this is different. he's being judged on his record. that's number one. number two, joe biden's negatives are not even close to what hillary clinton's negatives. in the same polling that had hillary clinton up an average of seven points, she was under water on her positive/negative

rating by ten points in our polling. this same poll this month that has joe biden up 11, joe biden has a one-point advantage -- one point above water positive rating over a negative one. so you have that difference. and then i think one of the more important differences here, there's just less third-party activity. four years ago you had a former two-term governor of new mexico running as a libertarian this year it's somebody who, shall we say, is not a household name even in the state of new mexico. and you have about half of folks saying they will consider a third-party candidate as opposed to four years ago. that is a huge difference. >> that is a good point, that third-party candidate did take a chunk of the vote in 2016 and you're making a valid point that the president is now running on his record versus what we were looking at in 2016 with two totally separate candidates coming into the field newly.

i want to switch quickly, while we have you, the republican-led senate and amy coney barrett, with needing a stimulus bill with coronavirus, what impact is that likely to have on republican incumbents who are seeking re-election with a base that needs to get back to work? >> honestly, i'm stunned that they haven't finished this deal. i can't believe it didn't happen in august let alone september and here we are 16 days before the election and still nothing. now you have senate republicans who want nothing to do with it. mitch mcconnell, they're going to vote on something that isn't remotely what the president wants nor what congressional democrats want. $500 billion basically re-upping of the ppe program, no aid to

states. california will start doing massive layoffs if some help from the federal government doesn't come. it's not going to happen, though. the senate republicans made a political decision. they don't think it's good politics for them and i think if the president wins, maybe senate republicans will go along with a bigger number and spend $2 trillion after the election. but if the president loses, it may have to be until january or february before we see any sort of new stimulus. >> boy, chuck, we always appreciate your insight. thank you so much for that. we hope you join chuck for this morning's "meet the press." he'll have health and human services secretary alex azar and governor gretchen whitmer. that will be an interesting interview. if you watch every week you know coming up in about 30 minutes from now we will talk with our nbc bay area political analyst, larry gerston, for our weekly segment. we'll take a look at thursday night's presidential debate,

upcoming presidential debate, and how much debates can change people's opinions and determine the outcome of an election. turning to other news now, it's not something you see every day. atlanta police used a drone to arrest a man. he was accused of murdering an actor. video from the drone shows it hovering outside a second story apartment and when the suspect's door is blown open the drone enters the apartment and moves to the back where police say antonio walks out of a room with his hands up. he, again, is accused of shooting thomas jefferson bird in atlanta on october 3rd. back here in the bay area a warning for people on the peninsula. this mountain lion was caught on video friday night and again yesterday morning. this is in san mateo on the 4100 block near abbott middle school. a reminder to keep pets and small children inside once it

gets dark. also, be alert when you're hiking or jogging on trails at dusk or dawn. the nonprofit rebuild silicon valley is ramping up its activities but now with coronavirus precautions in place. yesterday volunteers were out in san jose working on repairs to a home owned by someone who wouldn't be able to afford renovations on her own. workers wore masks and gloves, stayed six feet apart during their work. this home will get a new coat of paint, the deck will be repaired. volunteers tell us it helps the family in light of covid-19. >> we're delighted to be a part of this community, to work together. there's also people that i'm working with that are my friends that i haven't seen live and in person. it's kind of exciting. again, six feet apart, masks and gloves, we're able to do this work for these deserving people. >> yesterday volunteers were from the first congregational

church of san jose. rebuilding together san jose valley will fix 12 homes in all this month. bless them. it is time to check in with vianey arana for a look at our scorching microclimate forecast. we are getting slightly cooler each day. isn't that right? at least if you live around the coast. it will be more noticeable especially for areas like san francisco which really hasn't seen much relief from the heat the past three days. it is sunday fun day and i hope you get a chance to get outdoors. waking up to the 50s, a beautiful view. you can see the sun rise there. wind speeds are calm and look at these cotton candy skies as kira describes them. a great description there. 60 degrees in san francisco. wind speeds are calm there as well f. we take it over to livermore we're talking 55 degrees. so what's going on with our weather? what are the changes? why are we cooling off? here it is. your microclimate highs for today will be slightly cooler for the coast. notice san francisco topping out in the upper 70s.

the same for half moon bay, 72. further into the interior valley we're still talking about 80s and 90s. now the reason is we have that offshore flow that brought those dry conditions. that high-pressure bubble sat over the bay area, bringing that elevated fire danger. we're not seeing a shift in winds going from offshore flow to onshore flow. that's also going to bring back the return of a marine layer around the coastline which is great news there. air quality forecast. it is improving. that shift in the wind helped sort of steer some of that wind -- or the smoke and the haze away from the bay area. it will remain moderate. the coast and the bay will be great. the east bay, moderate conditions there as well. let's look at your hour by hour outlook because we're talking about that slightly cooler temperature. notice what happens on the radar, that cloud cover there. that's what we want to see. that's mother nature's ac, the coastal clouds will increase later this afternoon. and then looking out ahead over the next seven days we are monitoring the return of an

offshore breeze to the bay area and an offshore breeze means dry conditions yet again. people were asking me if we had any rain in sight. unfortunately, high pressure is going to keep the rain out of the bay area and the return of that high pressure will continue to bring the possibility for some gusty winds once again expected to see elevated fire danger which could mean new red flag warnings being issued as early as potentially monday night, depending on how those winds shape out monday night into early tuesday morning. so we're going to keep a very close eye on that because, as you know, the hills are still extremely dry. all of that dry brush, think of that sparking and how quickly that can spread. notice the temperature drop in san francisco by friday and saturday. next saturday, that is. it's finally going to feel like fall around here. temperatures will be in the 70s for inland areas, which is great news. coming up in my next full forecast i'll have a look at

your game day forecast, the san francisco 49ers here at levi's stadium in a few minutes. kira, over to you. >> we look forward that, vianey. thanks so much. just shy of 7:21, much more ahead on "today in the bay" coming up. >> i thought it was not that hard. i thought it was easy and i could do it. >> she was the longest tenured chinese language reporter in san francisco until she got laid off because of covid. but her one-person newspaper operation still is getting crucial information to her community. to end money bail. governor gavin newsom. congresswoman karen bass. the western center on law and poverty. the dolores huerta foundation. californians for safety and justice. and the california democratic party. yes on 25.

who know an open mind is the only kind. who don't need to travel to find something new. who know where to escape, even just for a moment. who don't need a fortune to find a gem.

and who know when you spend less, you can discover even more. and never, ever stop discovering. spend less, discover more. at t.j. maxx, marshalls, and homegoods. accused of rape. accused of stealing $5. the stanford rapist could afford bail. got out the same day. the senior citizen could not. forced to wait in jail nearly a year. vote yes on prop 25 to end money bail. informing the public especially in an election year is one of the most important roles of being a journalist, something we strive to do. we are not the only ones. one san francisco woman has taken on that responsibility and more to help her community. garvin thomas has her story in this morning's "bay area proud. ". >> reporter: over the years the bay area has been home to some

amazing journalists. for 33 years, one woman has worked in the chinese language press, that's longer than anyone ever in san francisco. but, the most important part, she's not done yet. in fact, in one big way, she's just getting started. if the printed newspaper is a relic of the past, as we've been told many times, it seems someone forgot to tell porsha lee or maybe they did and she chooses to think very different. >> basically the hard copy print is still very valuable. >> reporter: newspaper reporting has been her life for more than half her life. she covered the san francisco crime beat for more than 30 years for a national chinese language newspaper until, that is, she got a phone call this spring.

pandemic-induced cutbacks cost her her job. >> i couldn't believe it. >> reporter: the very next phone calls were from porsha's former colleagues saying her voice in the chinese american community was too valuable to lose. she should start her own paper. porsha thought that was a good idea. >> i thought it was not that hard. i thought it was easy. i thought i could do it. >> reporter: is it easy? >> no, of course not. so difficult. >> reporter: that's because she is not just a reporter anymore. she's publisher, be editor, sales manager, and, yes, delivery woman. all 3,000 copies of this week's edition are delivered personally by porsha. but why go to all this trouble for a venture in which she hopes at best to break even? a part of it is she loves being

a journalist. >> self-learning, something new every day, but you can make a difference for so many people. >> reporter: and for some, particularly seniors, she feels she can only make that difference with a free printed newspaper. no smartphone, no internet needed to be informed about issues directly related to their lives. and that is well worth the paper it's printed on. garvin thomas, nbc bay area news. >> wow. what an impressive woman. we wish her all the best. 7:26. we do have much more ahead on "today in the bay." coming up, a free speech rally turns violent and is called off right after it begins. punches thrown as emotions boil over. plus, the clock is ticking

to register to vote. we have options if you miss the deadline. i've ever brought down. prop 22 doesn't "help" their drivers-- it denies them benefits. 22 doesn't help women. it actually weakens sexual harassment laws, which are meant to protect them. uber and lyft aren't even required to investigate sexual harassment claims. i agree with the la times: no on 22. uber and lyft want all the power. so, show them the real power is you. vote no on prop 22.

good morning. it is sunday, october 18th. 7:29. we take a live look outside at levi's stadium where the niners take on the rams right here on nbc bay area this afternoon. we hope you stick with us all day long. thanks so much for starting your morning with us. i'm kira klapper. vianey arana joins us with a look at your microclimate forecast. are you wearing red for the niners? i'm not but i love them. >> it's more of a burnt orange, i think. it looks red but it was a little bit dark in the room because i have to get up earlier than everybody else around here. we'll say it's for the niners for sure. they're going to have great weather to match today's game and it helps out it's an evening game because that helps cool our temperatures down. a great shot of san jose there. earlier kira was mentioning about how we've seen in the past

they've had to worry about the air quality in the area before being able to play. no concern there today. air quality is expected to be anywhere from good to moderate through the afternoon which is fantastic news. i personally think the players are going to enjoy the forecast for today. i have heard that the perfect football weather is between 60 and 70 degrees. they'll start around the low 80s for kickoff, which is 5:20 p.m. fast forward to the halftime, 74 degrees and by the fourth quarter we could dip down into the upper 60s. i would say this is a happy medium for that perfect football weather. kira, over to you. >> looks good, vianey. we'll see you again in 15 minutes. thanks. as the election nears, tensions are flaring on both sides of the aisle. and in san francisco at a freedom of speech rally it turned violent. sergio quintana was there and filed this report. >> reporter: activists wearing red make america great again hats were able to speak only a few minutes before san francisco police pulled the plug just

before philip anderson took the mic, this happened. he was hit in the mouth by someone dressed in black. in a live stream of the event by anderson's group you can see san francisco police voice concerns for their safety after he was hit. >> if a fight breaks out, do you have an exit strategy? >> reporter: determined to carry on with his demonstration, anderson, who traveled here from out of state, took the small stage and spoke briefly. >> -- it needs to end. this has nothing to do with donald trump or anyone else. it has to do with free speech. >> reporter: as the situation quickly unraveled with counterprotestors trying to pull down barricades and throwing objects, officers escorted the original group out and shuttled them to safety in a san francisco police van. anderson lost two teeth when he was hit and went to a local hospital. one of his allies has organized a go fund me campaign to help fix his teeth.

no arrests have been made. counterprotesters say their aim was to overwhelm the event. >> so we actually kicked them out. they were in front of the plaza. they had a stage. they had a lot of police presence. >> reporter: after the conservative group was whisked away to safety, the larger group remained and organized a short march on market street. in san francisco, sergio quintana, nbc bay area news. across the country and here in the bay area it also was a day of action for women. >> who's here because it's your body so it should be your choice? >> the march for our rights started at larkin and grove streets and ended at embarcadero plaza. the protest filled city streets, delayed traffic, also put on a multitude of issues on display including women's equality, getting women to the polls and the black lives matter movement. which will and men came from out of town to be a part of this march. >> it feels like we're going

backwards in a lot of key, important issues. as a woman and as a voter and a citizen of this united states of america i feel as though we're divided and losing things that make us have human rights. >> i'm here to support all the women here because i feel they deserve the rights everybody else has. >> the protest comes after this week, a contentious week, during the confirmation hearings of supreme court nominee judge amy coney barrett. many at the march see her appointment as a direct threat to women's rights. that san francisco march was one of many across the country yesterday. thousands of people gathered in washington, d.c., yesterday afternoon after hearing from several speakers, the crowd marched around the u.s. capitol building and ended in the national mall. a smaller group of demonstrators took part in what's being called a text-a-thon event to urge women to vote. in all, nearly 430 marches were planned in cities across all 50

states this weekend. and sticking with the election president trump continues his fight for the midwest holding two big rallies. the president stumped in michigan right on the heels of joe biden's drive-in rally friday night in detroit. the president continued on to wisconsin where mr. trump won both states by a hair back in 2016. >> i don't have time to be nice. i have a lot of work to do for you. >> the biden/harris campaign did not have any public events as scheduled yesterday but they did send a letter to reporters asking them not to become complacent leading up to the election. on wednesday joe biden heads back to the battleground state of pennsylvania where he is expected to be joined by former president obama. the deadline to register to vote is ticking away. tomorrow at midnight is the deadline to register to vote. election officials are encouraging people to register ahead of time, voters do have the option to register

conditionally on election day at your polling place. turning to other local news, a violent start to the weekend in san jose. we told you about this yesterday morning after a gunman opened fire at a restaurant. now fear is gripping the community after three deaths in just a few hours. "today in the bay's" thom jensen reports. >> reporter: when san jose police arrived at a restaurant just before midnight on friday they found six men shot. two of them died. >> there are too many guns on the street. >> reporter: this business consultant who represents a number of restaurants told nbc bay area the owners were just getting ready to close when they heard gunshots. >> i was able -- >> reporter: he worries there will be even more violence because the pandemic is pushing more people into poverty and desperation. >> there are more guns on the street and there's people i personally know, we're going to buy guns because we don't know

what's going to happen next. >> reporter: he's encouraging clients to ask sjpd to increase patrols. san jose pd says it has no suspects right now, and the motive is still under investigation. these were the 34th and 35th homicides in san jose in 2020. there were 34 murders in the city in all of 2019. in san jose, thom jensen, nbc bay area news. we are learning new information about how a san francisco firefighter will be remembered after he died in a training accident. a memorial service will be held this coming week for fallen firefighter jason cortez. the 42-year-old was killed during a training exercise with water pressure that seemed to push him over the edge of a fire escape. he was a husband, a father to two boys. the celebration of life will be held at oracle park at 10:30 tuesday morning. a procession will follow for a private family funeral.

in other news now this record fire season continues, and now there's a startling revelation. cal fire has announced that the august complex fire which ignited two months ago has now burned more than 1 million acres. the fire is burning across multiple counties including mendocino, humboldt, trinity, lake, and glenn counties. it already was the largest in california state history and now it's in a league of its own at 1,032,000 acres. containment stands at 82%. in vacaville here is a look, time lapse, firefighters working quickly to put out a five-acre fire yesterday evening sparked along vine street. police say about 100 homes were evacuated. the cause is still under investigation. so you need help fixing a problem in your home but hiring a handyman won't fit the bill. now expert help from a pro and

they don't need to set foot inside your house. our chris chmura is here to tell us how it works. >> reporter: good morning. leaky pipes, clogged toilets, broken light switches, everyday problems that in normal times you might hire an expert to come over and fix. what if you could do it yourself with a pro watching over your shoulder and giving you tips along the way? there's now an app for that and it could save you money, too. the virtual handyman. >> the idea of learning the process is better for me than hiring someone to just do it and not have anything like next time this happens i can figure it out myself. >> reporter: so how does it work and what does it cost? tonight after the 49ers game here on nbc bay area we'll show you the service and whether it's a good alternative to hiring an expert. i'll see you again tonight after "sunday night football." >> we look forward to it. that looks cool. 7:38. still to come on "today in the bay," how much can a debate change a voter's mind? political analyst larry gerston

joins us to explore the topic in a few minutes. but first the 49ers are back in prime time while playing under the lights, help them get their first home win of the season. anthony flores has a preview of "sunday night football" next in sports.

good morning. i'm anthony flores. the national spotlight will be shining on the 49ers. the niners take on the l.a. rams on "sunday night football." jimmy garoppolo had a solid and healthy week of practice. the defense, yeah, they're still battling injuries. the 49ers are winless at levi's stadium this season, a trend they'd like to break against the 4-1 rams. >> it's more of just go out there and show it. >> a challenge because they're playing really well.

when you have 99 in the middle, moving all over the field, you have to be accountable for him because he is as big a disrupter as there is. >> we still have a lot of football left and i think everybody knows that and they know how big the game is and i think everybody is pretty eager to show the world what we can do. >> now the 49ers take on the rams on "sunday into the football" here on nbc bay area. kickoff is at 5:20. be sure and join us for our special pregame and postgame coverage. we'll have a live newscast right after the game from levi's stadium. then after our show the pregame show, switch over to nbc sports bay area for 49ers pregame live at a special time, 4:00. and on the first pitch in the air right field, that is playable. coming in and the tampa bay rays have won the american league pennant. >> the rays avoid blowing a 3-0 game lead beating the astros in

game seven. the tampa bay is headed to the world series for the first time since 2008. the dodgers forcing a winner take all game, game six, they came out swinging in the bottom of the first. cory seger tees off for a solo home run. l.a. takes a 1-0 lead. next batter justin turner going yard. the dodgers with back-to-back jacks. they scored all their runs in the first. they beat the braves, 3-1. the dodgers forced a deciding game seven later today. that's a look at your morning sports. i'm anthony flores. have a great sunday.

welcome back. two weeks and two days until election day. each day more and more important than the last. the final debate between president trump and former vice president joe biden. nbc bay area analyst larry gerston joins us.

hi, larry, good morning to you. how important are these debates in determining the outcome of the presidential election? >> you know, kira, you never know. sometimes they are. sometimes they aren't. let me take you back to 2016, hillary clinton against donald trump. clinton wins the first, clinton wins the second, the third, trump wins the election. in that case they weren't important at all. so you never know. this year it may be different altogether. >> so thursday's event is supposed to be the third debate but it ends up being the second debate after all. give us the big picture. >> it is pivotal, monumental for donald trump. he has to do well, convince the voters he's the guy for them, that he deserves another four years of it's so critical for him -- not so critical for biden but for trump and also for the

viewing audience especially that 3% to 5% who have yet to make up their mind and are looking for a reason to choose one candidate or the other. >> which sort of seems astonishing how there could still be undepp sided voters. most observers did pick him to win the election. how do you think this happened now? >> he's more behind. now nine to ten points. but more than that this is all wrapped around covid-19. voters have pointed out how it is the most important issue in the campaign and what has the president done with respect to public approval? a look at a couple of charts

showing what happened, in april, april 1st, the public supported trump and cope individual 19 45% to 40%. to yesterday what does the public say? they support trump but 40% to 57% are against what the president is doing. covid-19 is the issue of the year for now and trump has failed to meet the public's expectations on that at least in the two polls we've seen. >> with all due respect, it asks who you ask, who you speak to. what do you think the president has to do on thursday? >> he has to show people despite covid-19, he is the person -- the economy was doing well the first three years of the trump administration. people will debate among each other, themselves, whether trump gets credit or doesn't. the economy was humming until march.

we're going to overcome covid-19. it's a tall mountain to climb given that 220,000 people are dead and 8 million to 9 million have suffered. that's what the president has to do, nonetheless. >> and what do you think joe biden needs to do on thursday? >> we talked about how biden has made covid-19 the issue. it relates to health care, to a bad economy, it relates to all the other issues that are confronting americans today. they have to show trump has failed. he's failed as a leader to handle what's become the most important issue to the american public per the polls. the more he hammers on that one issue the more likely he is to continue the place he's in. >> what do you think each

candidate needs to avoid? >> trump has a problem, he has contentio contentious, he's excited and angry at what's going on with his own campaign. he's taking it out on the moderator. he did it with chris wallace. he did it at the town hall with savannah guthrie. he has to not get into a fight with the moderator, yet he's already said bad things, if you will, contentious things, with respect to kristen welker who will be the moderator on thursday. if he can keep his cool, if he can act presidential he'll have a much better chance of showing people the kind of president they want to see. >> kristen welker, the president, by the way, went out of his way to congratulate on her promotion to becoming a co-anchor on the saturday morning "today" show calling her very fair and saying nbc made the right choice and now back tracking saying she's unfair and all sorts of other things.

it will be interesting how thursday does play out. we thank you for your insight and we'll see you in a week to see how the debate turns out. oscar the grouch here to tell you, yeah, you,

to wear a mask out in public around other people. sure it'll keep you healthy. but more importantly, i won't have to see your happy smiling face. ugh. and if you don't want to wear a mask, i've just got one thing to tell you. scram, go away. ugh. caring for each other because we are all in this together. so wear a mask and have a rotten day, will ya? ugh. good sunday morning. it's sunday football and i will get back to that forecast in a

bit. the changes we're expecting today and heading into the workweek. 55 degrees right now in livermore. one thing you'll notice that has been on trend has been plenty of sunshine. no complaints there. 59 degrees in san jose. san francisco 60 degrees and once again we are expected to see above normal temperatures. what does that mean? basically we're warmer than we typically are for the month of october. certainly hasn't felt like fall. we're heading in that direction. monday, again, morning 50s to 60s. concord, 92. the most noticeable change when it comes to the drop in temperatures that slight cooling trend will be in areas like san francisco. we're not going to be nearing the record today. the old record was 86 degrees set in 2012. today's high will be in the 70s, upper 70s. big difference compared to the 90s that san francisco has seen the past three days. as far as san jose goes, look at

the high for today. 90 degrees. almost, i would say, 20 degrees warmer than the average of 74 degrees. that gives you an idea how much hotter we're running. typically during this month we're in the 60s and 70s throughout the bay area. record high for today would have been 98 degrees set in 1903. we're not expecting to hit triple digits. that's good there. overall your air quality forecast ranging from good to moderate all the way from the north bay down to the south bay. the best air quality will be at the coast and bay. the reason for that is because of that onshore flow. not only that but the onshore flow will bring the return of the marine layer and that's a nice change for san francisco and half moon bay. could see some fog around the golden gate bridge. some of those coastal clouds nearing in the evening. what we're looking out for ahead into monday and tuesday is going to bring another shift in the weather and that's going to bring the return of an offshore breeze that will kick up again

our concern for high fire danger which could trigger new red flag warnings possibly as early as monday night overnight into tuesday morning. so definitely looking out for that. now let's take a look at your sunday night football. kickoff is at 5:20 p.m. that cooldown could not have come at a better time. 82. now we will be in the low 90s for the santa clara valley area. halftime, 74. by the fourth quarter, cool, comfortable 60s. great weather for the san francisco 49ers. over the next seven days keep in mind we're going to keep a look out for the high fire danger heading into monday. breezy to windy, especially the north bay mountains and the east bay hills. inland temperatures will also be as breezy and looking out ahead friday into saturday that is not a mistake. those are 70s. finally in our forecast we'll be able to whip out the blankets and the fuzzy socks and the

candles for football. that's my favorite. >> pumpkin spiced candles, here we come. thank you so much. before we go a special honor for a local world war ii veteran on his 95th birthday. a boy scout troop came out to honor john and led a ceremony that included a bugel call to colors, the presentation of the flag and, of course, singing happy birthday. the boy scouts all signed a big birthday card to the world war ii veteran. we wish this hero a happy 95th birthday. thank you so much for making us a part of your morning. we have a special newscast at 3:00 p.m. with raj mathai and janelle wang anchoring from levi's stadium ahead of the 49ers game against the l.a. rams. kickoff is right here at 5:20 and then it's "sports sunday" followed by news at 9:00. we will be back on again at 11:00 tonight. until then stay up to date on

nbcbayarea.com. we leave you with this view of levi's stadium. have a great sunday. when was the last time your property tax bill went down? what? never. are you kidding me? for years, the residential burden has gone up. while the corporate burden has gone down. prop 15 reverses that. it closes corporate loopholes and invests in schools, small business, and firefighters. and when the big corporations pay more, your tax bill goes down. that's right. a savings of a hundred twenty-one dollars a year for the average home. give homeowners a break. vote yes on 15.

this sunday -- politics and the pandemic. >> this election is a choice between a trump recovery and biden depression. >> with the presidential election now just two weeks away -- >> everybody knows who donald trump is. let's show him who we are! >> and joe biden leading by double digits, plt searching for some way to turn things around. >> suburban women, will you please like me? please! please! i saved your damn neighborhood, okay! >> even as tens of millions of people have already voted, are we looking at a biden landslide

or could there be another shocking election night? plus, heading for another covid surge. >> we're likely to grapple situation where everybody part of the nation will be lit up by infection. >> president trump claiming falsely that the pandemic is disappearing. >> you know what, without the vacci vaccine, we're around the turn. >> and you got to get your governor to open up your state! >> lock her up! >> as cases spike from coast to coast. >> utah is now facing its most dire episode yet in this pandemic. >> north carolinaens must be even more vigilant. >> this morning i will speak to governor whitmer, health and human secretary alex cesar and michael osterholm. joining me for analysis, mark leeb wishes from new york no magazine, donna edwards, ashley parker, white house reporter for "the washington post" and former

republican governor of north carolina, patrick mccrory. welcome to sunday. it's "meet the press." >> announcer: from nbc news in washington, the longest-running show in television history, this is "meet the press" with chuck todd. good sunday morning. as if we hadn't faced enough already in this year, 2020 is about to deal us two more challenges. first, in just over two weeks our deeply divided country is going to have an election that will reveal its character and direction over the next four years. and our new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll by a 54% margin registered voters say they're better off now than they were four years ago. good news for president trump, right? by cement a 58/38 margin voters say the country is worse off than it was four years ago. what do those seemingly contradictory results tell us? that this year it is not the economy, stupid, it's the coronavirus. which brings us to the second challenge, a frightening new

surge of infections and covid-19 deaths. in recent weeks we've experienced an increase in cases that looks very much like the beginning of a third peak, with friday hitting the biggest one-day total judge july 24th, when we were in the middle of peak 2. in washington state, case numbers increased by 25% or more. with the virus the greatest threat to the president's re-election, mr. trump routinely insists we're rounding the corner. the rounding the corner. or we really going in circles? >> we win wisconsin, we win the whole ball game. >> reporter: president trump campaigning in a handful of states he won four years ago. >> we're going to win the state of north carolina. we're going to win the state of florida. i love georgia. we're going to win the state of michigan. >> reporter: trailing nationally by 11 points, the president is beginning to talk about losing. >> can you imagine if i lose. >> my whole life, what am i going to do? i'm going to say i lost to the worst candidate in the history of politics.

i'm not going to feel so good. maybe i'll have to leave the country, i don't know. >> he's arguing his fund raising numbers, which fall fall short of biden's, are a choice. >> i can raise more money. i've been the world's greatest fund-raiser. i just don't want to do it. >> reporter: and dwelling on a 26-point deficit against women. >> i think suburban women like me. frankly, i saved the your way of life, i saved the american dream. people say trump has a problem. >> reporter: mr. trump is spending most of the time on the trail focused on his personal grievances. >> the media has become crazed and big tech companies have become crazed. it's very unfair. so unfair. you should lock them up. lock up the bidens, locke up hillary. >> reporter: republicans on capitol hill are beginning to distance themselves. the. >> i know we're looking at the possibility of a republican bloodbath in the senate. it's going to be what the heck were any of us thinking that selling a tv-obsessed narcissistic individual to the american people was a good idea? it is not a good idea.

>> we all have a good chance of winning the white house. >> reporter: as coronavirus cases rise sharply around the cup country. >> we had many record-sketing days for hospitalizations, new cases and covid-19 deaths. >> 2,532 new cases reported since yesterday, which is our highest one-day record. >> utah is now facing its more dire episode yet. >> reporter: president trump is denying the reality of the numbers. >> rounding the turner. >> turn the corner? my lord, it's not disappearing. in fact, it's on the rise again. >> reporter: and the president continues to make false claims about mask wearing. zblim okay with masks. i tell people to wear masks. but just the other driveway they came out with a statement that 85% of the people who wear masks catch it. >> when the president doesn't wear a mask or makes fun of foiks like me when i was wearing a mask for a long time, then it's people say well, it mustn't be that important. >> reporter: on that issue republicans are pushing back. >> i was the one who said we

need to wear masks, practice essocial distancing. >> i always do pro most the cdc regulations. >> i let my guard down and it was wrong. it was just a big mistake. >> yoining me now is the secretary of health an human services, alex azar. secretaries aar, welcome back to "meet the press." let me start with something that i think is a bit confusing now to those of us in the professional press corps and many plenty of viewers at home, who is leading the public health strategy right now for the federal government as these cases go up? is it you, is it the task force, is it scott atlas? is it deborah birx? is it dr. fauci? there's a lot of confusion about who is leading the public health policy discussions on the federal government level? >> chuck, of course the president's leading the overall whole of government response and he's making all of us as public health leaders available to help educate the public. but what matters right now is the message we're trying to get

across, which is cases are increasing. you talked about that in your opening segment, cases are increasing. we're seeing this happen because we're getting colder weather and we're losing that national social distancing that happens from being outdoors and people are getting tired. the american people have given so much, we're seeing mitigation fatigue right now. i just hope that we have so much promise in the weeks and months ahead, next generation threat putices, safe and effective vaccines, please, my message to the american people, please, practice those three ws, wash your hands, watch your distance, wear your face coverings when you can't watch your distance, and really, chuck, tell your viewers to be mindful of indoor household gatherings. just because you're related offer friends with someone doesn't mean you can't transmit or get transmitted to. >> let me ask you about indoor gatherings, you were with the president in florida two days ago at a large indoor gathering in ft. myers. that's a state that no longer

really has any restrictions. every locality is basically on its own there. but, you know, i hear you -- the message you just sent, to be honest i was going to ask about this later in our interview, but you just sent this message, you were in that room. what message are we setting? what example are you setting as a top public health official participating in indoor events like that? >> chuck, for that policy event, masks were distributed to all of the individuals attending and the chairs were set up in a socially distanced way. of course, i wore face covering throughout. we encourage everybody to wear face covering and i wish everyone would wear face covering and maintain social distance. our advice is the same no matter what the setting, wash your hands, watch your distance and wear your face coverings when you can't watch your distance. >> i guess what i'm trying to figure out are americans supposed to take your advice when the president doesn't take your advice? he's been in the state of wisconsin.

the state of wisconsin, you guys at the task force warned the state of wisconsin they're in the red zone. big events is a bad right right now. the president's campaign did what? held a big event in the state in the red zone. again, i go back to this, what example is being set by the federal government? >> chuck, we're seeing an increases in states whether red or blue or open or closed, we are seeing an explosion of cases in europe. europe, the most locked-gown pasht of the western democracies and they're seeing an explosion of cases, they got more cases per million than we have in the united states. some countries on a population adjusted basis have two, three times what we have in the u.s. the ticket is in our own hands, chuck. it's what i talked about at the outset. it's about basic public health mitigation steps. we have it in our individual control. it's our ticket to be reconnected to education, to worship, to health care, and also to our public and civic life, chuck, wear a face covering when you can't be

socially distant, chuck. >> why has that message been so difficult for the president? >> i think it's a difficult message for all western democracies. we're seeing that in europe. the american people have given so much. people of ukraine have given so much, chuck. they've been locked down, isolated and tired. but the point is, we're so close. hang in there with us. we're so close. we're weeks away from moan owe clonal antibodies for you for safe and effective vaccines. we need a bridge to that day. please, give us a bit more time of your individual, responsible behavior of washing your hands, watch your distance, wear your face coverings when you can't watch your distance, chuck. >> do you wish the president had your urgency? your message is very compelling, it really is. i just don't see it by anybody above your pay grade. >> in ft. mimers he said i'm glaz you're hearing them and engaging in your sifbl life and

reconnected but if you feel vulnerable, please, stay hope, protect yourful is. first and foremost, protect yourself. that is my message to everybody is, first and foremost, protect yourself and protect those in your family. >> let me ask you about dr. scott atlas and the experts he brought in for you to meet with. the president is implying he's open to herd immunity. is herd immunity now official health policy of the federal government? is that what the task force is essentially pushing us towards, some form of herd immunity? >> chuck, i'll meet with individuals who are experts to learn, listen, hear perspectives. one important part

that's what i'm focused on every day. i wake up every day with that as much mission and the core to that is get us safe therapeutics and safe vaccines in historic

record time. look, the pfizer ceo just announced by the end of november, he thinks they may be submitting an application for vaccine, ten months after this pandemic hit our shores. this is incredible, historic news, chuck, we ought to be celebrating and have a great sense of optimism for but also a recommitment. bridge to that date. bridge to that date. l l . >> let me ask you a question about the vaccine and distribution plan. have you briefed the biden team on this? >> no, i have not been asked to but i will follow whatever protocols there are for cooperation in terms of any efforts. no, that hasn't been asked for. what we're working on is working with our state and local authorities on the vaccination plan. 63 of 64 states friday submitted their vaccine distribution plans and the other one just asked for a short exception. that's all going extremely well and that cvs/walgreens partnership will be critical to protecting the most vulnerable. >> before i let you go, the president went to michigan,

started talking about lock her up chants on the governor of michigan over her coronavirus restrictions. let me ask you this, is it good to browbeat local officials in what they're trying to go to contain the virus? >> chuck, i'm not going to get into politics. what i will talk about red state, blue state, open state, closed state, open country, closed country, we see these cases spreading. why? because we've been in this for many months and people are tired. i talked about this back in february, march. as you get mitigation fatigue, people get tired. the steps to mitigate right now are simple, please, wash your hands, watch your distance, wear your face coverings when you can't watch your distance, stay out of settings. please be mindful of indoor gatherings now as we get cold and keep our guard up. happening in there with us. the days are numbered ahead. >> mr. secretary, if your message was coming out of the president's mouth, i think it would make a lot of public health officials a lot happier. >>well chuck, the president's

been saying wear masks since the april reopening guidelines. i'm his secretary. i speak for him. i'm telling you, that's the message, that's what i'm asking to you do on behalf of the president, do those things, to the american people. >> secretary azar, i will leave it there. i appreciate you coming on and sharing the perspective of the administration. and joining me now is the democratic governor of michigan, it's gretchen whitmer. governor whitmer, welcome back to "meet the press." i want to start with the state of the virus in your can stasta before we get to the politics around the virus. first, give me an update. where is your state? i know you're part of this huge spike most of the country is in. you had some of your restrictions wiped away by the supreme court. i know some of them will get implicated but i know the r your power to eliminate this virus may be eliminated. what do you do? >> that's right, chuck.

we are seeing covid cases rise in michigan, what epidemiologists told us all along would happen as we got closer to the fall but i'm concerned, of course, because the supreme court decision in my state created a lot of confusion to undermine the work we've done here. we crushed our covid fight early on. our economy rebounded. we're one of the top ten rebounding nations in the economy, however, it's all at risk and this part of the decision out of the supreme court makes it more precarious already situation that's already very dangerous. >> what recourse do you have? i know that -- can you -- they didn't really cite any michigan law. they didn't cite any law on deciding why you suddenly didn't have this power, is this something that you want to send to the u.s. supreme court, or are you just going to try to work around it using other legal channels? >> well, i'm going to continue doing my job. so i've got other powers that we are using. we have epidemic powers that my

director of the of the health and human services have. we still have a statewide mask mandate. we still have restrictions on gatherings. we still have the ability to create workplace safety for our workers. so there are a lot of things that we're still 0 going to continue to do. i'm not going to get distracted by a text from the white house or state supreme court that is undermining my work. i'm going to keep going forward and keep doing everything i can to protect my people. >> how are you going to account for lockdown fatigue, mitigation fatigue? that is real. we know this is real. in your efforts this time to convince your constituents to abide by the rules? >> last week the president talked about lockdowns. we have not had a stay-at-home order since late spring. but i know he never lets the facts get in the way of comments he's making. every time we're focused on the fact there are 220,000 americans who died for this virus is good for him.

in that sense as he insights additional violence against people who are just trying to save one another's lives, it does for him. that's why i don't want to talk about him endangering public servant's lives. i want to talk about what he hasn't done and that's his job. the trump virus response is the worst in the globe, mine in the world. it's the worst. 8 million people have been -- have contracted covid-19. 320,000 dead. we've got people in food pantry lines who never would have imagined that they would be there. a and no light on the horizon because our numbers keep going up. this is a grave, serious moment for all of us. if you're tired of lockdowns or tired of wearing masks or you wish you were in church this morning or watching college football or your person were in-person instruction, it's time for change in this country, and that's why we've got to elect joe biden. >> i want to ask you -- get you to react to something here from

the mayor of sioux fall, south dakota, republican. i spoke with him on friday. i'm guessing you're going to empathize with what he has to say. the republican mayor of sioux falls. take a listen. >> trying to enforce any government restrictions now at this point in the game, even if i sfelt that wfelt that was the to do, it's a nonstarter in the community. it's dix ffficult for us at the local level, difficult for us as county leaders, local mayors, to politicize how difficult it is, and it's making it frustrating. >> do you put this all on the press that basically he created this environment and it hamstrung everybody up and down the government infrastructure in this country? >> i do think the person with the biggest mega phone bears a lot of responsibility here. it's true. this is a public health crisis. it should not be part of the moment and yet he's made it that way to deflect from his administration's inability to get their arms around it. people are dyeing.

people are out of work. people are looking for help just putting food on the table. and there is no relief in sight. our numbers keep getting worse. and that is the sad, hard truth of this moment, chuck. we should have acted as though we're in a war, but not a war with one another, a war with a virus and this virus doesn't care what side of the aisle you vote on. this virus is still a very real threat to all of us. if we could all muster the american spirit and put our masks on and take care of ourselves and one another, we will all be better off. >> how confident are you joe biden will carry michigan? >> i feel good about it but i'm not leaving anything to chance. i'm working incredibly hard to make sure that he does win. i'm working hard to make sure that we have the ability to elect our supreme court in michigan and so for welch and mccormick, who are on the battle, i'm working hard to elect emthis. this is a moment where we as americans have to elect leaders that are going to look out for

our health, going to look out for our economy, get us back to work and make america a leader in the fight against covid, not a laggard. >> and, finally, last night at the top of our show we made reference, and you became a target of the president personally, a lock her up chant targeting you started and seemed to be almost encouraged at times by the president there. you've already come under threat once. what does something like this do to you personally? i'm just -- i know how you're acting professionally here. i'm wondering how this impacts your family personally. that's a lot to deal with. >> you know, it's incredibly disturbing that the president of the united states ten days after a plot to kidnap, put me on trial and execute me, ten days after that was uncovered, the president is at it again and inspiring and incentivizing and

inciting this kind of domestic terrorism. it is wrong. it's got to end. it's dangerous, not just for me and my family but for public servants everywhere who are doing their jobs and trying to protect their fellow americans. people of goodwill on both sides of the aisle need to step up and call this out and bring the heat down. this is the united states of america. we do not tolerate actions like he is giving comfort to and that is why we all have to be in this together. >> governor gretchen whitmer, democrat from michigan, i appreciate you coming on and sharing your views. obviously, we hope you and your family continue to stay safe. >> thanks, chuck. up next -- president trump insists we're rounding the corner on the coronavirus. you heard hhs secretary alex azar moments ago say we're so close. we're going to get there. when we election...

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do you support herd immunity as a strategy, essentially let people get sick? >> so the cure cannot be worse than the problem itself. we did the right thing. we were expected to lose 2,200,000 people and maybe more than that. we're at 210,000 people. >> welcome back. as my colleague savannah guthrie pointed out in thursday's nbc news town hall, what president trump said there was not true. the 2 million figure was if we did nothing, zilch, zip, which, of course, nobody was proposing at the time. what you did not hear in that answer was a refeudation of herd immunity, letting people get sick to build up resiliency among millions to protect the most vulnerable from the virus. it is a strategy being promoted by coronavirus white house task adviser scott atlas. you heard secretary azar say it

was not official policy. joining me, of course, michael osterholm the director for infective disease research. director, you're here to be our reality check. let me ask you, do you share the optimism secretary azar shared with us this morning? >> i don't, only in the sense we're not really telling the complete story. we do have vaccines and therapeutics coming down the pike, but when you actually look at the time period for that. the next 6 to 12 weeks are going to be the darkest of the entire pandemic. vaccineless not become available in any meaningful way until early to third quarter of next year and even then half the u.s. population at this point is even skeptical of taking the vaccine. what we have right now is a major problem in messaging. people don't know what to believe. and that's one of our huge challenges going forward, we've got to get the message to the public that reflects the science and reflects reality.

>> do you have any idea who's running the public -- the federal government public health response at this point? is it -- do you suspect that dr. atlas is now the leading scientist in the president's ear and so, therefore, dictating policy like potentially herd immunity? >> you know, i don't nope if there is a lead. there are a lot of different voices. it's just part of the problem i just mentioned. we don't have a consolidated one voice. and this is not just about the science. right now what we're about to go into, chuck, when i was on this show last on september 13th, we had 33,000 cases reported that day. you may recall i warned that we were going to see a very dark fall. friday we had 70,000 cases matching the largest number we've seen back during the really serious peak in july. that number was -- we're going to blow right through that and between now and the holidays, we're going to see numbers much, much larger than even the 67,000

to 75,000 cases. no one has a good story about what to do there. what i mean by a story, this is more than just science. this is bringing people together to understand why are we doing this? this is an fdr fireside chat approach and we're just not doing that. >> let me ask you this, if joe biden wins on november 3rd, what's the first thing you would like him to do? >> first of all, we have to cut through all of this partisan issue around the virus. i'm not naive to think that's going to happen overnight. but we have to lay out what are we trying to do? what is our plan? right now actually, believe it or not, we want to achieve herd immunity but we don't want to get through through disease. we want to get there through a vaccination program. if you already have half the population skeptical of a vaccine, and we're going to try to get ourselves through this come spring and early summer, we're already going to shoot ourselves in the foot. so we need somebody to start to articulate what is our long-term plan? how are we going to get there? why are we asking people to

sacrifice distancing? why are we telling people if you really love your family, you won't go home for thanksgiving or christmas, and end up infecting mom or dad or grandpa or grandma. we don't have that storytelling going on. that's as every bit as important as the science itself. >> you just referred to something that i was going to ask you more directly, is it pretty clear that nobody should travel for the holidays? and i know nobody -- we're america. its still free donell of movement but realistically, we ought to plan on not traveling? >> you know, this is our covid year. let's accept it. it's not like last year and not hopefully going to be like next year. i have seen far too many situations where family get-togethers, even weddings, funerals, family reunions, birthday party, graduation parties have happened where someone brings the virus into the household unknowingly and then four weeks later, at least one or more of the family members are dead.

you know, no one wants to be responsible for that. if you really love the people that you have in your immediate family, et cetera, think through this and actually do them the greatest gift of all, and that is distance yourself this year and don't expose them. it's not ideal, we know that, but we're trying to get through to getting vaccines to then make it next year a much, much more likely situation where you can do that safely. >> on herd immunity, i don't know if you saw over late last week where there was a back and forth with another scientist who was trying to get to dr. atlas, and apparently atlas is claiming there's a likelihood only as few as 25% of folks need the infection for herd immunity potentially to kick in. is that even possible without a robust vaccine? >> you know, first of all, that

20% number is the most amazing combination of pixie dust and pseudoscience i have ever seen. let's just move on. it is 50% to 70% minimum. remember, when we talk about getting 50% to 70% protection, we're talking you can get there with disease but if that happens, there will be a lot of deaths, a lot of serious illnesses or we can try to get there with vaccination. postponing the numbers who get sick until we have the vaccines available 679 once you get to 50% to 70%, that's kind of like what you hear on the airplane and they announce we're about to descend into laguardia. you still have 30 minutes of flight time. 50% to 70% slows down transmission, it doesn't stop it. this virus will keep looking for wood to burn for as long as it can and technically get over 100% over time. our goal is to get many people protected with vaccine and we have to tell that story. we have to tell how we're going to get there. we have to tell people why we can get there. that's what we need to do right

now and we're not doing that. >> well, dr. michael osterholm, you are always very clear and straightforward with our viewers, which is why we find you to be as good of an expert we can find these days when the government refuses to provide scientists to these sunday shows. anyway, michael, thank you. >> thank you. coming up -- joe biden's campaign manager says the race is closer than the polls suggest. preside ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ joe biden will make health his plan gives a tax credit to help working families pay insurance premiums,

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welcome back. the panel is joining us, mark lebowitz, chief national correspondent for "the new york times" magazine, former democratic congresswoman donna edwards and former republican of north carolina pat mcquarrie. i want to start with the reality, i will admit i'm still a little shaken by michael osterholm's dark preview of the next 6 to 12 weeks, but some 27 million already voted in this election. by thursday's debate, it is possible a full third of the electorate will have already cast their ballots, which brings us to this, what can change the trajectory of this race when 50 million people may have already voted by thursday?

>> well, one thing the trump campaign is counting on is on the whole more of those early voters are democrats. that's something bill steppian admitted on a campaign call, look, democrats do have an advantage in sort of early voting but for the trump people, one thing they're focused on is they believe their voters are are sorts of voters who will show up on election day at the polls. so for the trump campaign at least it means get out the vote efforts do matter. it means persuasion does still have and it means if the president can show even an iota of discipline, changing what he says rallies, perhaps tweeting less, doing what he did the final stretch of 2016 where he did recede a bit from public view and was fairly disciplined, and for the biden side you're seeing him put out memos and talking in conference calls as well saying do not let up. do not take this for granted. national polls do not matter.

the popular vote is an intriguing metric but what happens is the electoral college. this election can come down to 30,000 votes again in two or three key states. >> mark leibovich, my partner in first grade mark murray emailed me yesterday and he said i'm having deja vu. there's the president. he's trying to get hacked emails covered, dubious russian connections, lock her up chants, but there is a difference. the president's grievances this time are his. he's not channeling his voter grievances. four years ago he would say long her up chants or talk about the border or trade, he might talk about other issues other than personal grievances and now they're all personal. >> so i don't know if he pivots the way ashley says he could. >> the notion we're still talking about a potential pivot two weeks before the election, this has been, what, four years now almost? >> i know.

>> i don't think that's going to happen. >> he's not pivoting. >> the strategy has shown at least in the numbers this is not working. i think what you're probably going to see over next couple weeks, yes, the debate, whether it will be divisive or not, i think it's probably a bit of a long shot but the driving story over the next couple weeks, no matter what the covid numbers and also the fact that the president is going to be holding these rallies pretty much every night that are the only public gatherings of that size pretty much in the country going on every single day. we're going to watch football games today in which there will be empty stadiums all over the country and the only place there will be packed crowds will be these rallies. that will be reinforced every day and pivot isn't coming. i hate to break it to anyone hoping otherwise, but i think the same dynamic will prevail over the next couple weeks. >> we could have a little fun with the map and pat and sonydo i want you to help me out here.

bill step yen, the president's campaign manager, being privately pessimistic, does outline what he believes is the victory for donald trump. in staff meetings he says the easy part is winning iowa, georgia, ohio and mainstream congressional districts. then they need the following scenarios to kick in. scenario one would be winning arizona, north carolina, pennsylvania. scenario two would be winning arizona, north carolina, michigan. scenario three would be north carolina, michigan, nevada. pat, there's one state that's in all these of their scenarios and that is the state of north carolina. where is the president? how hard do you think this will be for the president to carry the state of north carolina this time? >> i predict he will carry the state of north carolina. it will be very, very close, but the dilemma he has is the democrats have so much money on the ground. both in north and south carolina. let me put it this way, on my radio show, i have more democratic ads than republican

ads. that means the democrats have a lot of money. but there's one word that the republicans are repeating over and over again and that's amy barrett. she -- the supreme court confirmation hearings we think have brought some momentum to the trump campaign and the democrats aren't bringing her name up at all on the campaign trail. >> donna edwards, there's one state that is not included in any of these scenarios, and it happens to be a state the president campaigned in yesterday, and that is wisconsin. it's interesting to see how pessimistic republicans are about wisconsin, at least the president's campaign manager. are democrats that confident on wisconsin? >> it's not so much, chuck, as being confident as doing the work on the ground. when you look at the number of voters who have already voted early with wisconsinites becoming accustom to that, the number of first-time voters

showing up at the polls, i think that's been a good sign for democrats, and i was struck yesterday the president was campaigning in janesville, which is a solidly republican area. used to be represented i think by paul ryan, and i just don't see that as getting in the new voters from madison and the milwaukee suburbs that the president is going to need to win a state like wisconsin. >> pat mccrory -- go ahead. >> you heard on my show that democrats are doing an incredible, unique political strategy. they're trying to endorse the libertarian candidate to take away votes from republicans. so the democratic senator candidate in south carolina is running ads basically promoting the libertarian candidate against lindsey graham. very unique strategy. >> well, when you have that much money, like jaime harrison has, you can.

ashley parker, i'm not going to play it again. we heard the ben sasse comments. is ben sasse the senate republican canary in the coal mine in that he speaks for a lot more that don't speak? >> yes and no. i mean, keep in mind he's speaking after he won his primary, after his victory seemed fairly given. so he's not a profile in courage. what he is is perhaps a glimpse of how if trump does lose, some members but not all members, would try to position a republican party in a post-trump era. but the thing you have to keep in mind is the president is an outgrowth of a populism that is still very real in the republican base and the idea even if he loses, he just disappears, he stops tweeting. he potentially stops holding rallies, that's not going to happen. he may have a grip on the party well after 2020 but you will see

some more researchpublicans fee emboldened to state what they stated privately just about since the president took office. >> of course, four years ago in this very month we had stories of senate republicans looking to put their distance between themselves and nominee donald trump. who knows? anyway, let me pause the conversation there. when we come back, joe biden's lead over trump looks a lot like hillary clinton did four yearsgo when i was in high school, this was the theater i came to quite often. the support we've had over the last few months has been amazing. it's not just a work environment. everyone here is family. if you are ready to open your heart and your home, check us out. we thought for sure that we were done. and this town said: not today. ♪

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welcome back. data download time. nervous democrats, skeptical republicans worrying with two weeks left in this race. remember where polls put hillary clinton. remember, the national polls are not always a sign in the electoral outcome. how safe is joe biden in the current double-digit lead? at this point in october almost to the day hillary clinton was up ten points over then-candidate donald trump over registered voters in "the wall street journal" poll. in the latest out this week, biden is up 11.

but joe biden is not hillary clinton and incumbent president trump isn't outside every candidate donald trump. at one point in 2016 one in 65 voters said the country was headed in the wrong direction. not great for a party's hope of staying in power. today that number under a republican president trump isn't great either, 62%. another thing, voters like biden more than they liked clinton. in our positive/negative feeling thermometer we use, she was 10 points underwater in mid-october 2016. in comparison, biden is in positive territory. actually up a point. but perhaps most important are the types of voters clinton failed to win over who are currently polling more favorably for biden. at this point candidate trump was pulling ahead with independents and seniors and he led white voters by nine points. now biden has widened margins with the first two camps and narrowed president trump's hold on white voters to only four

points. these gains are especially important to cycle white voters and older white voters could help biden's split states like wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania and florida. the states that narrowly put president trump over the top last cycle. so even if 2020 may look and feel a bit like 2016 with the surprise ending possible, these numbers suggest that there are substantial differences this year. remember, president trump and joe biden will face off in their second and final debate this thursday, moderated by our own kristen welker. please join my colleagues and myself for full coverage beginning 8:30 eastern time. when we come back, even though it is not 2016

(stasha vo) when everything shut down, i thought,"you know what?

people have been asking for online classes for the longest"" it was amazing. business kept growing and growing and growing.

welcome back. the panel is back here. mark leibovich, we've been talking about all of the ways that maybe this and is the like 2016, all of the ways it appears the president is behind but there is one counterfactual here that i think benefits the president and raises some questions about the biden strategy and that he is these voter registration numbers that we've seen come out of, in particular, pennsylvania, florida, north carolina.

tom edsall wrote about this, one of the fates fewer won by fewer than poiv points in 2016, arizona, north carolina and pennsylvania in recent months there are more republicans added to the rolls than democrats in reach of them except pennsylvania. if we're missing new registrants, that's how those polls could suddenly tighten. >> that's an important counterfactual and i think there's a misperception, new voters and people lined up, that just equates to democratic enthusiasm. as tom edsall pointed out, that's wrong. i think the counter counterfactual to that is when you look at the fact in 2016, there were third party candidates on the ballot who were a lot stronger, gary johnson, jill stein. they're not on the ballot this time.

so it could be well spread and not as decisive in wisconsin and north carolina this time around. >> donna edwards, when i hear from democratic strategists about what keeps them up at night it is this issue on a weak voter registration campaign in all of 2020, all understandable reasons with this pandemic, but this is -- if there's something that they're going -- that's keeping them up at night, it is this. >> yeah, i think that's true. i think it's one of the reasons you see the biden campaign also focused on low propensity voters, a lot of voters who actually stayed home in 2016 and try to turn them out in 2020 as a way to balance this. i think it's why you see the deployment both of kamala harris and joe biden in some of these areas to try to lift that up. listen, if a third of the ballot votes had been cast by the time you get to election day, that means two-thirds still have to be turned out and energized.

i think that's why the biden campaign is very focused on saying, hey, it's not over and just because we do early voting, doesn't mean we don't have to continue until the end. so that's what i see on the democratic side as a way to try to balance what has happened on the republican side in terms of registration. >> pat mccrory, what is the president's message? not what should it be in these closing two weeks, but i mean, here he spent the last two days, he spent part of his week attacking fellow republican senators. obviously he didn't like what ben sasse said. he went after susan collins, not worth the work because he's upset she's not going to vote for judge barrett before election day. he called him senator little ben sasse. perhaps the senators will find a new and better and more viable candidate. what the senate is focused on this week is probably not what you want to be focused on but is

that the president's problem, we don't foe what his message really is? >> i think that is an issue. he has not controlled the message and part of that is because of the virus. but there have been september and october surprises also. you had the woodward book which comes out every election time. you had the melania trump tapes, which was incredible how someone tape recorded the first lady, and so he's been on his heels on this and many other issues. but now joe biden, whether you like it or not, is going to have to deal with a hunter biden october surprise between now and election day. and so i think -- >> ashley parker -- >> in addition to the virus. >> ashley parker, the fact the trump campaign wants and hopes that this questionable hack -- and we don't know, there's a lot of questions surrounding this story, is this their last -- this is their last card they're playing? this is all they got left? >> yes, potentially, as you said it's a rerun in many ways of

2016, gut the landscape is different. the hunter biden stuff, some of it is not verified. some of it may seem unsavory for hunter. but it doesn't really attach to his father, and some of stuff that has come out in the hack actually makes joe biden seem like what voters already believe, a decent guy. in a text with his son hunter, who struggled with drug addiction, you have joe biden saying good morning, my beautiful son. that is not exactly opposition research, especially for americans who have their own family members struggling with addiction. >> that's for sure. very quickly, donna edwards, right at the end of the judge barrett hearings, dianne feinstein praised lindsey graham for how he ran the hearing, gave him a hug, and let's say that did not sit well with the base of the party, demand justice, a fairly new group on the left promoting judicial -- promoting sort of more campaigns than these judicial fights, it's time for senator feinstein to step

down from her leadership position. how bad is this for senator feinstein? >> frankly, i don't know it's bad for senator feinstein. i think it really -- democrats need to be focused on the problems with amy coney barrett's nomination, the timing, the fact where she is and can't even endorse the idea that contraceptives are within the right to privacy, and what she might do in terms of this election, i think that's a problem. and i think from the biden perspective, you know, really focusing on the destruction of the aca is the focal point. so biden can't get away from the economy to covid to how you recover. >> i'm going to have to end the conversation there. thank you all. but before we go, i want to note this year's "meet the press" film festival, afi fest, is actually going on now through

thursday. seven programs this time around, air vulture, of course, even of the q&a hosted by one of your i didn't choose this job because it was easy. but i can't say i expected this. to fight these fires, we need funding - plain and simple. for this crisis, and for the next one. prop 15 closes tax loopholes so rich corporations pay their fair share of taxes. so firefighters like me, have what we need to do the job,

and to do it right. the big corporations want to keep their tax loopholes. it's what they do. well, i do what i do. if you'ld like to help, join me and vote yes on prop 15. this week on "press here" a startup that's the first privately built super connisoni airplane and we check in with contributors at home during the pandemic and common sense media jim steyer on the press that fronts to our election. that's this week on "press here." ♪ ♪ good morning, everyone. the guests i bring on the show, i screen ahead of time. i won't bring some crack pot