it's the final day before the election. kamala harris and donald trump continue their battleground blitz, trying to secure as many voters as they can as the final

nbc news poll of the season shows the race in a dead heat. it's also been a record year for early voting. our own richard lui is here to break down what voting trends are showing. in the middle east, israel announces a recent ground raid in syria. this as a suspected leak of classified gaza documents are tied to a netanyahu aide. what it means for the growing conflict in the region. the vikings take on the colts in a sunday -- on sunday night football. was minnesota able to turn around its mid-season skid? we have the highlights. plus, a rare discovery at a new york museum. we give you a glimpse and a listen to a newly uncovered chopin waltz. it's monday, november 4th. "early today" starts right now. good morning. thanks for starting this busy week with me. i'm frances rivera. on the eve of the presidential election, we have a new snapshot

of the state of the race. the final poll by nbc news shows the candidates tied nationally among registered voters with 2% undecided. donald trump continues to dominate among men, while vice president harris has a similar advantage with women. perhaps the biggest surprise in polling comes from iowa. the highly respected des moines register poll shows harris leading trump within a margin of error. iowa has not been a battleground state in recent elections, but may be one to watch tomorrow. tonight the vice president will be making her final pitch to pennsylvania voters with a series of star-studded rallies and concerts. mr. trump will visit three swing states. nbc's garrett haake has more from the campaign trail. >> reporter: duelling strategies from duelling campaigns in the race's closing weekend. a noticeably angry donald trump hammering vice president kamala harris in the first of three

rallies. >> the horrible, terrible, worst ever vice president. >> reporter: lashing out at democrats. >> it's a very demonic party. >> reporter: the former president remarking on the bulletproof glass that mostly enclosed him on stage, noting that anyone who might want to shoot him would have to fire through the reporters covering him. >> i have this piece of glass here, but all we really have over here is the fake news. and to get me, somebody would have to shoot through the fake news. and i don't mind that so much. >> reporter: trump's campaign later issuing a statement that did not disavow his remarks, reading in part, quote, president trump was stating that the media was in danger in that they were protecting him and therefore were in great danger themselves. also making headlines after rfk junior saying a new trump administration would advise, quote, all u.s. water systems to remove fluoride from public water, trump telling nbc news

the fluoride removal sounds okay to me. meanwhile, harris focusing on michigan, trying to energize black voters a at church in detroit. >> when i think about the days ahead and the god we serve, we were born for such a time as this. >> reporter: and later, at black-owned business outside detroit. and reaching out to arab and muslim voters angry about the administration's handling of the war in the middle east. >> we need to end the war, and we need to get the hostages out. and as presidentof the united states, he will do everything in my power to achieve that end and a two-state solution. >> reporter: harris making a surprise appearance on "saturday night live," giving the show's version of herself a pep talk. >> the american people want to stop the chaos. >> and end the drama-la. >> with a cool new step mamala. >> sitting back in pajamala.

>> thanks foregarrett haake. elon musk is in a philadelphia courtroom over the million dollar giveaways he has been offering every day until the election. musk's lawyers tried to have the case moved to federal court. prosecutor says this is not about the federal law. it's over vote-buying. they argue muss simplistic operating an illegal lottery and deceiving customers. nbc's george solis tracked down some of the win others this money. >> reporter: the clear pattern is emerging about the winners of elon musk's million giveaways. nbc news finding at least nine of the 15 winners are either registered republicans or are republican-leaning. >> $1 million. >> reporter: and at least one former democrat. >> we've just over the years seen the party change, and really kind of do a 180. >> reporter: all of the winners live in one of the seven battleground states and appear in photos or videos. ron conwell telling nbc news he found out he won when members of

musk's super pac came to his door with an oversized check. joshua mayo emotional over the life 46 changing albeit scrutinized cash. >> a million dollars shows up at my door. >> it's just unheard of. >> reporter: musk under growing legal scrutiny himself accused of interfering with the federal lukz since he announced he award money to voters. >> if you already believe in the constitution, you're just signing something you already believe and you can win a million dollars. >> reporter: the super pac not responding to nbc news's comment about the process. all this as a civil lawsuit against the swing state sweepstakes medicine back to co court. the d.a. accusing musk and the pac of operating an illegal lottery and trying to influence voters. no criminal charges have been filed. but for now the controversial cash on test continues with

winners expected to be announced through election day. george solis, nbc news. israeli authorities are investigating after the suspected leak classified gaza intelligence allegedly involving an aide to benjamin netanyahu. an israeli court saying monday the leak compromised security forces and could have harmed efforts to release hostages. it came the same day the idf announced a recent special operation in syria led to the detainment of, quote, an iranian terror network perative. let's go to claudio lavanga. good morning, claudio. >> reporter: good morning, frances. well, that leaked document on gaza first appeared on a german newspaper on september. it appeared to contain the negotiation strategy of hamas during that time. now more details about that document are slowly trickling out. they're coming out because the israeli court only lifted the gag order on sunday. but the idf in the meantime, the

israeli defense forces did confirm that confidential and sensitive information was leaked. and that israeli court also said that that information could have caused serious harm to israel's state security and also to the efforts to relieve the remaining hostages from gaza. now one of the four suspects on for that leak is media adviser of the israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu, leading critics to claim it was done so to provide political cover for netanyahu at the time hen the negotiations between israel and hamas on the ceasefire and the release of hostages from gaza ground to a halt. now as you mention, on the same day the israeli army, the idf did say in a statement that they in recent months, they conducted or carried out what they called a special round operation during which they detained what they called an iranian terror network

called ali sulayman accusing him of gathering information about israeli troops along the border. in spain, mud, objects and insults flying at king felipe vi as he surveyed damage in the valencia region. 20 months' worth of rain fell in valencia and the surrounding areas in just eight hours. some receiving alerts on their phones as the water was already rushing into their homes and cars. the spanish prime minister says the government wants to help the country move forward and acknowledged the need to do better. back here at home, at least 11 people were injured after severe storms tore across oklahoma sunday, spawning destructive tornadoes. heavy rain and winds decimated neighborhoods, flipping cars and leaving tens of thousand without power. at least 100 homes were damaged across the state. the governor enacting an emergency declaration for six

counties. the national weather service confirmed at least five preliminary tornadoes across oklahoma, texas, and new mexico. and the severe weather threat continues this morning moving east. let's check with nbc meteorologist michelle grossman who is tracking it for us. good morning, michelle. >> good morning, frances. it was a stormy weekend in the south. we're looking to a stormy start to the week as well. the southern states into the central states stormy this morning. heavy rain falling too. that will be a concern as we go throughout this monday. you can see some lightning strikes. texas, oklahoma, this is moving up to the north. and this is going to stay in place as we go throughout the day. we're looking at a chance for really heavy rain, some large hail, the chance of tornadoes. the likeliest chance for strong tornadoes is in this orange shading. so dallas, north of dallas, into tulsa. also looking at winds up to 60 miles per hour that could cause some damage, some power outages. and a few tornadoes are possible as well. the likeliest chance for that will be in that area oklahoma city, portsmouth, ardmore and north of dallas. this is what it looks like in terms of the rainfall. we're going to look at the

chance for flooding rains. flash flooding is a concern as well. especially where you see the darker colors, the red, the oranges, the yellows through texas into arkansas, oklahoma, missouri. essentially from the southern states into the ozarks and the mid mississippi valley. 7 million people impacted by a flood alert the morning. wichita, tulsa, wichita falls, also fort smith. whe you see ther e kansas city, wichita, joplin into st. louis. temperatures in the 40s in the northern plains. all right. that's a look at your monday forecast. >> okay, thank you so much, michelle. >> sure. this just coming in overnight. music titan quincy jones has died peacefully in his los angeles home. his publicist tells nbc news. the multi-grammy winning

producer worked with michael jackson, producing his thriller album. he also collaborated with hundreds of artists including frank sinatra and ray charles. quincy jones was 91 years old. coming up, we'll take a deep dive into early voting at our big board. but first, runners descended at the 53rd w cneyorkity marathon yesterday. we'll bring you the winners 60 seconds. can keep coming back. start to break away from uc with tremfya... with rapid relief at 4 weeks. tremfya blocks a key source of inflammation. at one year, many people experienced remission... and some saw 100% visible healing of their intestinal lining. serious allergic reactions and increased risk of infections may occur. before treatment, your doctor should check you for infections and tb. tell your doctor if you have an infection, flu-like symptoms or if you need a vaccine. healing is possible with tremfya. ask your doctor

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two-game skid, 21-13. it was the first sunday in november, and all eyes were on the streets of the five boroughs. over 50,000 runners descended on new york city yesterday for the 53rd annual marathon. the first to cross the finish line in central park was sheila chepkirui of kenya. the first-time runner finished 14 seconds ahead of defending women's champ hellen obiri. schorlely after, abdi nageeye of the netherlands took home the men's title finishing in 2:30.39. and our et once again, like he does every year running that marathon. congrats to cody. election day is turning into election month, and there is a record number of ballots already cast. nbc's richard lui is here to help usos rt through the early morning data with hours to go before election day. with life-changing programs and services. i faced my ptsd, and i'm a better husband and father because of it.

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what a week this is going to be. with just one more day to go

before election day, early turnout is reaching record levels. so what early voting trends are starting to emerge? let's turn to richard lui who is here in the studio with us. richard, good morning. what are you seeing? >> one more day to go, as you just said. good morning to you, frances. early voters, they are your consistent or energized voter, as you have heard, your super voters, if you will. and this year, we're seeing a record number of them. i just checked our database starting at 1:00 a.m. morning, just updated, 76 million early voters so far. it's the most ever, if you remove the covid phenomenon year of 2020, when we had very little other choice. it pushed in of us to early voting. in 2012 and 2016, when you look at the numbers here, this represented about 36% of all votes during those election years. in 2020, it was 64%.

so how are we looking this year? >> well, we could see another record this year, according to our new nbc news poll that just came out. 65% are saying they will vote, or have voted early. now when we look at those who will vote on election day, you can see here, we're about a third. they're saying that, you know, when you look at whether you vote early or late, it may show who you favor on average. if you're an early voter, you favor harris, according to our poll by 7 percentage points. and frances, if you vote on election day, well, you're favoring trump by 16 percentage points. >> and richard, as we let those numbers marinate here, let's talk about early voting. it is typically a sign of how excited voters are. so how does that break down by party? >> yeah, show you what it looks like in terms of the numbers themselves. in seven battleground states we're watching as of today, it is still close.

four states had more republicans voting. look at arizona, georgia, north carolina, and nevada. when it comes to democrats, they are ahead in michigan, pennsylvania, and wisconsin. so you can see where early voters are headed in the respective battleground states. now when you look at the numbers also will, is only one state where it is more than 2 to 5 percentage points. that's all we're really seeing here. it's pennsylvania. pennsylvania has plus 24% for democrats. that's a big lead in terms of early voting. now nationwide, it remains, well, unbelievable, because you look at this, 41-39, just as our nbc news poll was showing, dead heat here. typically you would see more democrats voting early. this year republicans are coming on strong when you look at those numbers. and this is the breakdown when we look at the very breakdown of

je gender itself too. the wild card is 20% here, frances. the question, which way will they go. >> let's talk about some age and gender, richard. >> since i pulled this up really quickly, look at women surpassing men in early voting. pennsylvania, georgia, michigan, north carolina. you look at women surpassing 13%, 12%, 11%. again, this is pretty average when you look at it overall. 53% nationwide to 44%. that's a 9 percent advantage. >> thanks for the breakdown, richard. great to have you with us. when we come back on "early today," the anti-hero continuing its run tathe box office. and preps for the macy's thanksgiving day parade have taken flight.

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and if he's elected, everyone will. there has to be some form of punishment. i'm kamala harris, and i approve this message. (man) what if she doesn't like it? there has to be some (woman) this time is different. this has real chicken, sweet potatoes, and brown rice. (man) oh yeah, blue tastefuls is different. (woman) looks like it's blue tastefuls from now on. (vo) blue tastefuls...a taste they'll love. made from natural ingredients. (vo) it's high noon and the winner's clear. 7 out of 10 cats prefer blue tastefuls chicken to iams chicken... and with tastefuls' delicious natural ingredients... it's easy to see why. blue tastefuls, a taste cats love made with natural ingredients. my late father-in-law lit up a room, but his vision dimmed with age. he had amd.

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protections for the lgbtq community. james van der beek has been diagnosed with colorectal cancer. he said he is taking steps to resolve it and is feeling good. and the weekend box office "venom" for the second week in a row, raking in more than $26 million. and the band of balloons when sky-high for the test flight of the macy's thanksgiving day parade. the parade is november 2th. emerge as you, with clearer skin. with tremfya®, most people saw 100% clear skin... ...that stayed clear, even at 5 years. serious allergic reactions and increased risk of infections may occur. before treatment, your doctor should check you for infections and tb. tell your doctor if you have an infection, flu-like symptoms or if you need a vaccine. emerge with clear skin. ask your doctor about tremfya®. ♪♪

now to a rare discovery. in the music world, a new work from classic composer fredrick chopin that's nearly 200 years

old. chloe melas visited the new york city museum that made the fascinating find. ♪ >> reporter: it's the song exciting classical music lovers across the world. ♪ a waltz composed by fredrick chopin, the classical composer written nearly 200 years ago, and its existence unknown until now. >> the word that keeps coming to mind is cautious excitement. >> reporter: the piece of music was discovered this spring in the collections of the morgan museum and library in new york city. >> one of the things that's striking about it is how tiny it is. it's literally the size of an index card. >> reporter: this unnamed waltz the first new piece of chopin found since the 1930, and this week's verified its authenticity. >> looked at it under various kinds of light. there were various little details like the handwriting and how chopin would form the v of

waltz. >> the museum's curator robinson mcclellan is the first who came across the waltz. >> it came up in the most routine part of my job, basically cataloging collections. it didn't not even mention a manuscript, it mentioned a chopin letter. i didn't expect something like this to be in there. >> i started getting emails from my students. professor, what do you think? the buzz has certainly been tremendous. >> reporter: concert pianist and columbia professor magdalena played the piece for us and said she spent hours with her students trying to decode this new piece of music. >> it's really meant a lot to me to be able to work with his own handwriting, seeing chopin's thought process and some of the corrections that he made. >> reporter: it's believed chopin may have written close to 30 waltzes, but only 17 of them have been published. the others lost to history. do you think there are other

pieces like this soon to be found throughout? >> you know, it's very possible, but it's also very unlikely. >> reporter: the rarity of discoveries like this creating a reaction that even mcclellan didn't expect. >> also chopin, among the great composers had this personal connection with many people. his ability to reach directly to the heart. >> reporter: proving one of the greatest prodigies from the past can still surprise us. ♪ chloe melas, nbc news, new york. >> you never know. those works will ever show up. our thanks to you for watching "early today." i'm frances rivera have a great mon.da

with one day to go before election day, both candidates crisscrossing battlegrounds to shore up their base and reach the fe