running the prop 205 than wants to legalize marijuana they believe late voters late early voters those day of voters went to the polls and dropped off their ballots they believe those voters are theirs they are making a strong case if they can close that gap for prop 205 within 40, 50,000 votes by the end of tonight they will make up the grounds over the next four days as the county counts those ballots. >> really make arguments on both sides. we really appreciate your insight political editor there. let's take a look at the latest electoral college map and chris you can see those numbers have changed slightly. >> yes. that's right it went up a little bit for clinton when she took nevada but you guys were talking about possible 11 electoral college votes that arizona has for grabs of right no now donald trump is leading in arizona 49% to 45%. let's less than a hundred

donald trump has 819,000 votes little more than that while hillary clinton has 760,000 votes. but right now it is 49 to 45%. and that explains a lot of the just shock that is going on. nobody has called the race for the presidency tonight but there is absolute shock in new york at clinton's campaign rally. no celebration. what we're seeing there is a lot of tears. >> remember when out in 2000 still counting the numbers al gore would not appear that were in 2000. are we going to see a repeat of this crowd inside this building. this is the javits center inside hillary clinton's what was going to be her victory celebration. it hasn't turned out that way.

. >> the democratic district congressman former republican he served on the republican side for a state senator as well as he is a cop flipping parties to beat out sheriff paul back you what a night it has been for campaign 2016 for the latest answers and the latest results overnight and it's going to be a long night just open up our cbs mobile app if you can't sleep for any breaking news updates we will push out push alerts all night long. >> we'll have your complete post election night coverage on wake up arizona all starting at 4:30. this has been a very interesting night hey lot of races called a lot of

there. >> sun will come up tomorrow hopefully with more answers thank you for joining us all night long on cbs 5 news. >> we'll see you back here tomorrow. have a good night everyone. ?

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house. but he may still be hoping that these results bring some kind of discord in the united states because basically, he still sees the owz as an opponent, and anything that weakens it, strengthens the kremlin. scott, norah. >> pelley: elizabeth palmer in moscow for us tonight. bob schieffer, did you ever think you'd hear that? >> well, i can tell you, i haven't had time to do a survey yet, but i think moscow is going to be one of the few places enthusiasm. i think it's going to create a lot of worry in the capitals of the world. i think the japanese are going to-- they're going to-- they're going to wonder what happens next? can they count on the united states? i think south korea is going to have problem about this. and all across western europe. this-- this is going to come as a surprise around the world. perhaps-- >> what about the middle east? >> well, yeah, i wouldn't even

i guess they'll like it in syria, but we'll see where this goes. >> pelley: we don't want to venture very far from the electoral map. let us show you again. this is exactly where the race stands right now. donald trump very close to being the 45th president of the united states, with 244 electoral votes, 270 needed to win. hillary clinton at 215. there are five swing states still out, and donald trump is leading by tiny margins in all >> in pennsylvania, in particular, which has been the keystone state and a key part of her strategy in order to win the presidency, it appears now that he is opening up a bit of a lead in pennsylvania. john, can hillary clinton win without pennsylvania? >> no. i mean, not-- especially not the way michigan and wisconsin are going. the problem for hillary clinton in pennsylvania is the big area

much left of her vote in those big areas. >> did she under perform obama in philadelphia? all the talk was if she ran up the vote tally essentially in philadelphia, which is why she had that huge rally there with jon bon jovi, with bruce springsteen, the president of the united states, the first lady, was to energize that because pennsylvania has no early vote. >> barack obama got 557,000 vos, 2,000 votes more than barack obama. and so she didn't-- she did better than -- she did better in some of those counties. so, yes, it looks like she did not do-- big increase on what he had done. >> pelley: the presidency in the balance. stay with us. we will be back in just a moment

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>> pelley: back now with election night on cbs. sunshine we've been away, nothing has changed. ( laughter ) >> but it will. >> pelley: let's have a look at the electoral vote now.

distance. five swing states are still up for grabs, and donald trump is leading by slight margins in all five. john dickerson, as you go through the exit poll information and all the vote coming in, how did he do it? >> well, i'm still looking at that, scott. it's in different ways in different states. he-- you know, part of it is that-- if you look at a state like pennsylvania, barack obama-- 13% of the electorate in pennsylvania. so now it's only 10%. so hillary clinton's vote didn't turn out a little. his vote did turn out. then you've got in florida, north carolina, you've got gary johnson, the libertarian candidate, got 7% of the vote, took some of the millennial vote, which was up in north carolina, but because johnson was taking it, hillary clinton, it looks like didn't grab as much of the millennial vote in that close state. in florida, hillary clinton's

voters did not exist. donald trump beat her with that group by 20 point. whereas in a state like pennsylvania, she's up by 20 points with college-educated white women. it's a bit of-- some of it is idiosyncratic to the state, but basically in the rural areas he boosted his support-- >> i think there are two big factors. >> the hispanic vote? >> i think there are two big factors here. the first factor is seven out of 10 voters are angry, dissatisfied, sick of number two, amongst nearly every age group, blacks, hispanics, independents, she under-performed barack obama. so the clinton campaign had talked about that she would build a new kind of coalition, different than the obama coalition. it is a different coalition. and she wasn't able to replicate the obama coalition of 2012. >> pelley: i was talking to african american voters in cleveland, and i said, "do you feel the enthusiasm that you did for obama?"

"i hope we have a big turnout, but i don't feel the groundswell." >> which is why president obama made such a push to black voarpts in a personal appeal saying you have knot to get out and vote. >> charlie rose is with the political analysis. >> we're with lesley san chelz, and ruth marcus of the "washington post." this is more than a national election. >> absolutely. talking to a lot of folks, certainly in the republican party, they feel this is an event, especially when you combine it with brexit, which was very much a big part of donald trump's argument. he's also talking about the fact-- and norah was talk this-- in the bug cities you saw the democratic machine turn out but we whatwe see now is an avalanche of rural voters, small cities, the suburbs, the exushes that turned out in a bag way for donald trump, and nobody really saw that wave coming.

people do. i think in this election, you had two very controversial people. and ultimately, you saw the motivating factor for hillary clinton's voters, among the barack obama's constituencies, the younger voters, minority communities, et cetera, not be as much of a motivating factosh as the motivation of trump supporters, both for him and against her. >> ruth. >> i know you don't want to hear this word, but i'm going to have to say "recount." it could be donald trump wins tonight and hillary close in enough state, it's very possible we could enter the 2016 version of a recount, which is recounting provisional ballots. it probably is not going to happen but it definitely could. >> ben, i have to go to break. we'll be right back. more from cbs news election central.

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>> pelley: it's election night on cbs. let's go right to the board that shows us where the race is right now. this is the electoral vote. hillary clinton 215, donald trump 244. he is well within striking distance of becoming the 45th president of the united states. this is the popular vote. donald trump leading the popular

election night on cbs. on cbs and we are back. we are watching five state that are going to tell us who the next president of the united states will be. arizona, michigan, new hampshire, pennsylvania, and wisconsin, all too close to but cbs news estimates that arizona and wisconsin are both leaning toward donald trump. those two will not get him to 270. he'll need one of the other remaining states, but certainly, he has a much easier path now to the white house than hillary clinton. >> he does, indeed. and i think one of the first states to look at is pennsylvania because that's still the biggest prize still

and you can see that the margin in that state has widened a bit in donald trump's favor. why is that, john? what counties are coming in? >> it's basically because, again, of that-- that lebanon county, which hadn't-- which wasn't counted at all, and now he's up there by 20,000 votes. that's part of it. and then you add in all those little counties, and his margin is strong there, and for hillary clinton. the onlyhi it's only county that's not come in, is bucks county. and that's one where there are only 84% of the vote is in from there but she's only beating him by 2,000 vote. >> can she win without pennsylvania now? >> i don't believe so, no. no. no. well, again, bob, it depend if she lose michigan and wisconsin. if she loses michigan and

>> suppose he gets wisconsin, arizona, and new hampshire? does that do it? >> who, hillary clinton? >> no. >> no, donald trump. >> donald trump only needs 26 votes. so-- >> therefore wisconsin is 10, arizona is 21, and new hampshire would be-- >> arizona is 11. >> that's 21, and he would need new hampshire on top of that. >> which is. >> four. so 25. it's still-- he's still got to rack up a number of votes there, and that's why pennsylvania is prize. it's a big vote prize of 20 electoral votes. but interestingly, as you know, we have shown you multiple times throughout the night our decision desk. we have a team of people over there that right now that are crunching every single number, and we are trying to be so careful. this because it this election is so close. we don't want to make a call without making sure all of the counties come in at the same time. remember, people vote-- the vote

and with it this close, we are being extremely meticulous about that. we take this responsibility very seriously he were at cbs news. and so we've got the best people working on it. you wouldn't believe the amount of numbers on these screens that they are crunching to making sure that the right call is made. >> but the counties that are outstanding, john, in pennsylvania, are they leaning more towards donald trump or hillary clinton? >> no, they're leaning-- well, the ones, again, as i say bucks county is the only one that seems as i twirl through here. most of the big blue counties mongomry, delaware, philadelphia, they're 98% in. bucks is the only one in that mix that's not in. it's 84% but that's not a big vote getter for her. >> melania trump made one stop after the convention, after being accused of plagarizing michelle obama, was it chester county? is donald trump winning chester county? zeal that answer right after this break.

>> pelley: in the west, it is election night on cbs. in the east, it is election morning on cbs. it has been a long night, a fascinating night. donald trump's night, so far. let us show you the electoral map. donald trump well within striking distance of 45th president of the united states. hillary clinton with 215 electoral votes, donald trump with 244. the red states for trump, blue states for clinton. the white states are those we have not been able to make an estimate because the race is too close to call. the polls have just closed in the last state, and that is in alaska. but while these states that you see in white are too close to

new mercally by small margins in all five. >> this is something from the exit poll. 73% of voters say they made up their mind over a month ago which means the access hollywood tape made very little difference, neither did the f.b.i. hillary clinton email controversy. so seems the cake was already baked. if you were for hillary clinton or donald trump a month ago, it's still that. there was so about the ups and downs of the campaigns, switching people's minds, that doesn't seem to be the case. >> everyone at home has their note pads doing the math to the different path to victory. let's go to the states to give everyone the latest tally in those states we've yet to call. we'll start first with the battlegrounds which we can show you there. one state not on this battleground and i'll tell you that in a moment.

battlegrounds tonight. pennsylvania, 97% of the vote in the biggest electoral prize still left there. michigan, donald trump has a slight lead there. wisconsin, hillary clinton did not visit the state since the primary, donald trump did, spent money there, it benefited him. arizona, hillary clinton, the gold water girl originally hoped to make a play there trump leaning in the state of arizona. new hampshire at this hour a tossup. those are the states still left on the map. the one state we've not talked about in a bit as we were all trying to do the math here is new hampshire. another one of these states that the clinton campaign had felt comfortable about, had assumed it was in the democratic column, but at this hour, as you can

tossup, according to cbs news. >> i remember a conversation with john and he said he talked to the trump people and said why are you going to minnesota? >> again, in the stories we look back on this campaign, the trump people had a different set of data. it was consumer-related data. it was not sort of the normal state of the art political polling, and a lot of the people in the republican circles who looked at the trump polling and their method thought, you know, it's not the same when you're selling c when you're selling a candidate. well, it turns out that the trump people knew something with their special black box of assessing the world, they figured out who their voters were and they figured out how to get to them and it looks like they're getting to them. >> kellyanne conway was just here this morning when we were all here however many hours ago and she said one of the story lines of this campaign will be about how many non-political experts were involved in the trump campaign.

social media, people who never worked on a presidential campaign before, pollsters who didn't predict this would happen, that traditional class of consultants and pollsters made a lot of money on these contests winning and losing for their candidates. >> we still don't know anything about maine. >> there are four electoral votes up there and the polls just closed in alaska. let's don't forget old alaska up there. >> three electoral votes but those might matter. it might matter. one to have the themes of this campaign has been kind of outsider populist versus the elites. well, that's the message part but it's also grew the campaign in the way it was run, we're going to do it our different way, we're not listening to the specialists and experts, though they used some from the republican national committee,

>> talking about the special and experts, you can't get more special and expert than the clinton machine. >> right. what does this say if comes down for hillary clinton and donald trump, what does this say went wrong in h her campaign if it doesn't turn out her way this evening? >> if we're taking just about the clinton campaign it's got to be the democrats were not excited about her and they did everything they could with the state-of-the-art, but another cliche of politics they say the ground game and good for a field goal but you have to get within a field goal. >> and she has the backing of a president with high approval rates at this time. >> that's right and we haven't seen a connection between an incumbent and challenger like this, even bush and reagan didn't campaign the way these two did. >> i just think that outsider versus insider and those insiders who make a living trying to predict the turnout of the vote are scratching their heads saying they got this

>> the political science books will get rewritten. >> if my math is right, there is now 67 votes still on the board, still in play here. she needs 55. he needs 26. that shows you how close it is. >> nobody campaigned harder for hillary clinton in many of these swing states in recent weeks than president obama and margaret brennan, is at the white house for us tonight, margaret. >> well, a crowd gathered here, scott, but the silence f white house is deafening. president obama argued that the very fate of the republic, his words, hinged on this election, and he was on the stump for his successor more than any other president in modern history. donald trump, a man ehe called uniquely unfit for office, is going to deal obama's historic presidency a serious blow. clintonen promised she would

has been damaged in recent months, pledged to undertake immigration reform, roll out environmental protections and defend that landmark nuclear deal with iran which trump says he's going to tear up. supreme court nominee merrick garland doesn't look like he'll get confirmed, leaving us with a commit supreme court. trump said he'll renegotiate obama's free trade deal with asia and other alliances so this will make it very difficult monday when president obama heads to europe to try to reassure allies that america will stand by their defense particularly considering that trump has made friendly overtures to russia. how is he going to explain this pledge to possibly start a trade deal with china? so this is going to be really difficult for the white house to explain away in the light of day. but president obama said before the polls closed that when the sun rises, america will still be the greatest nation on earth.

this kind of result. >> pelley: margaret, sounds like and looks like there is a really large crowd around the white house. what's going on? >> reporter: well, scott, there has been a crowd gathering over the past few hours and it's gotten much, much larger just in the past 30 minutes or so, and you have seen more secret service move towards that front gate of the white house just trying to protectively get things under control or watch for any you've got "black lives matter" chants, anti-donald trump chants, pro hillary chants, red, white and blue balloons, some singing the american anthem and other patriotic sounds earlier. so it's hard to, in many ways, pull through the gate exactly where sentiment is. it sounds just as confused as many of the political experts have been in predicting this

on january 20th, there is going to be a new resident in the most splen did of all public housing in america there on pennsylvania avenue. >> it will be interesting to see the world reaction to this result tonight, however it goes down. especially i think people will be surprised it's gone so down to the wire. secretary kerry was saying the other day parts of this election have been downright embarrassing. >> i do think it's important to point out this hour, it and the reason we've not made a call is because this race is so close in so many of these states. >> and can still go either way. it can still go either way. and while donald trump has had a very good night, we're still looking very closely at a number of these counties that are coming in and we want to bring you all that data as it becomes available to us. >> it could go either way but there are more ways for donald trump than hillary clinton. >> yes, if you're donald trump

seeing states in which the numbers are growing in your favor in those states, and if you couple that with what has happened tonight, you know, the momentum of the moment is with him. so you would rather be donald trump in this scenario. >> and he's leading in the popular vote as well. >> yeah. now, as we talk about all these things, i want to remind you who are watching us right now that the moment any one of these states can be e the other, we will drop what we're doing, we will tell you instantly, you will be the first to know. having said that, charlie rose has some insightful panelists for us to listen to right now. charlie? >> michael gertz, peggy of the "wall street journal" and frank luntz. frank, what do you think? >> this is inconceivable five or six hours ago. first, all exit polling should be banned.

wrong all the way across the table on state after state after state, the 5:00 p.m. the second wave got it wrong. second, there is still a hidden trump vote. people who refuse to tell pollsters who they voted for will not acknowledge it and i think they will come out of the woodwork tonight. third, how do you address the anger? those are the people who want to tear up, blow up washington. they're going to have to figure out a way to work with them, with the house, the senate. thl we've seen in washington in a long, long time. >> your belief is trump has won? es, i've had a chance to look at the counties, i believe trump will be the next president. >> i think there are, keep this in mind, tens of millions of americans tonight who are experiencing this evening not only as a political event and an historical event, but as a spiritual event. they feel grateful, they feel

establishment that has richly earned a rebuke in 25 different ways. spoke to a friend of mine, major trump supporter this evening, i just spoke to him, i said, how did you react when you realized this was going to happen? he's a tough, hard-boiled guy, he said it was 9:00 p.m. and i burst into tears. he said, this is really going to be something, but he said, it's the right thing we are certain, and leave it there. when the focus was on donald trump, his numbers were down, when the focus was on hillary clinton, her numbers went down. my question at this hour of this election day, was this a victory for trump or a loss for hillary clinton? was it about trump or clinton? >> well, i think it's hard to argue that this isn't a victory for trump. his people came out in the right

an extraordinary upset, one of the largest in american history. >> the largest political upset in american history if we goes on to win this? >> certainly. biggest since 1948. i have to add this is also a validation of a certain kind of politics, more cruel, more ruthless, more personal than any i've seen in my lifetime. he has a huge burden if he wins this election to do some form of outreach to say that th single country, and not use, you know, groups to attack in that way. i don't know if he's capable of that, but every president has that and this president more than others. >> if he wins it's not only the biggest political upset of our memory but is it also the most transformative election because of who he was, how he campaigned and what he did? >> i think that's fair.

>> it's a change from the bush foreign policy. i mean, it is a removal -- it's almost like kicking away from the past 15 years. and his supporters, i must say, you said -- trump said he would do this and it is a remarkable thing. his supporters, too, all along, said they were going to accomplish what they accomplished tonight. it is quite an achievement. >> but the problem is, i've talked to his supporters a lot he they want revenge. they don't want cooperation and compromise. >> what does revenge mean? they want to get even with the people in washington and wall street to did them down. >> what do you mean? ith the politician who is didn't listen, with tabis who sent jobs to foreign countries, get even with a society who they think has turned against them. they think they've lost america

the trump government. the dow jones futures are going down and down with great concern of what it means. >> it does feel like brexit. it's a very similar turning of the establishment and then the financial establishment quaking and quivering. we'll see what follows that. >> he won't be able to populate his government with loyalists. he's need republicans to do this. people like senator secretary of state that would be reassuring, he could make moves like that. >> what's the possibility this election will be challenged and have months and month of -- >> well, we'll see what kind of a margin we're looking at at the end of the night. if this is close, close, close, looks to me like there may be movement in theiary of questioning certain state outcomes. if it seems for definitive than that, i would think it

although mrs. clinton is not someone -- she's like trump in that neither of them would be quick to do a concession speech. so we'll see how that goes. >> this is not about them, this is about their voters and their voters are going to protest. we see it tonight in front of the white house. mark my words, tomorrow those protests will grow. >> let me turn it over to scott. as we try to find out are we any way closer to a decision we go to scott at the decision desk. decision desk and these are some of america's best political scientists and stat tigs and -- statisticians and vote counters and they are looking at the last few states that are going to make a difference and this is under the direction of anthony salvanto, our director of elections here at cbs. anthony, when we were here about an hour ago, the board looked just like this. >> just like that. why don't we know what the

>> similar story all across here, scott. it is down to figuring out just how many absentee ballots there are left around detroit and in wayne county, places where hillary clinton has been doing okay, but if she's going to catch donald trump who has a slight lead in the total vote, they will have to to be made up in there. he's doing better than republicans typically do in counties all around it. >> pelley: and in the remaining states in the upper midwes wisconsin where we're looking around milwaukee, we're hearing reports that there are still ballots outstanding, not everything has been counted in and around milwaukee, that is critical. as you see, hillary clinton is winning there. the only question is, are there more ballots there that can help her catch up. >> pelley: winning in milwaukee county but not the state of wisconsin overall. >> but not in the state of wisconsin. this is still relatively close for the state if the rest of

this is a story we've told all night, which is the turnout is so high throughout so many of these states that not everyone knows exactly how many ballots are still outstanding. >> pelley: now, we've talked about an historic high turnout in florida. >> mm-hmm. >> pelley: have you also seen history-making turnouts in other states or do we know yet? >> yes, there has been high turnout but i tell you it favors donald trump in that the turnout has been higher in more areas, in more ex-urban areas where his voters have been strong. it's not so much a pattern where people are swinging as it is relative to the turnout hillary clinton got in her strongholds. >> pelley: you're seeing a massive turnout of his voters and that's why the math looks like it does right now? >> yep. >> pelley: what do you have to have in order to make estimates in the remaining states? >> the ballots that are remaining.

those sounds so that once we can say where a state is going at this point, it's less about models and patterns as it is about a raw vote, when it gets down to tend of the night an it's this close. so once they say, okay, that's it, we're done counting, that's where you can call the state. >> pelley: what is the path for hillary clinton to win at this point? how is that possible? >> well, she'll have to hang ono be extremely narrow if she does, and then all of these states up here. >> pelley: she will have to sweep them? >> she'll have to sweep them. >> pelley: donald trump? what are his paths. >> donald trump has a lot of paths. we expect -- not all the votes are counted in arizona but he has a slight lead there, then he would just need one or two of these other states where they have the slim lead. once they finish counting, if he hangs on to the lead, he would

>> much easier with hillary clinton. donald trump with 244. 270 needed to win. well within striking distance of being the 45th president of the united states. back with the latest vote total information on election night on cbs. cbs. want longer lasting heartburn relief? try...duo fusion duo fusion goes to work in seconds and lasts up to 12 hours. tums only lasts up to 3. try duo fusion from the makers of zantac if you've gone to extremes to escape your nasal allergies... try clarispray. from the makers of claritin. clarispray provides 24-hour, prescription strength relief from sneezing, runny nose, and nasal congestion. return to the world. try clarispray today. ? my hero zero. ? ? such a funny little hero ? ? but till you came along ?

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>> this is the closest presidential election i've covered and i did cover the 2012 presidential election. in a number of states, close vote tallies. anthony mason, what are we witnessing tonight? >> we want to look at the exit polls to see what the recipe is for motivating trump voters, and you could kind of -- if you remember the 1976 film network and howard behl, i'm mad at hell and not going to take it anymore, it's that kind of coalition because 38% of voters told us they're angry at the federal government, 93% said the country is on the wrong track. 77% said the fight with i.s.i.s. is going badly. 57% said trade is taking jobs away. i remember going back a decade and covering the economy hearing middle class voters in ohio telling me they felt washington protected the rich and poor and

in this country has not moved. that is a recipe for anger: norah. >> anthony mason, thank you. if i could follow up on what anthony said, one of the things that united the trump voters is 77% said they want that wall, something he announced on the first ride down the escalator 500-plus days ago, they want the wall. >> and who's going to pay for >> mexico. and then as we witnessed in the debate, hillary clinton challenged him on whether trump had the guts to bring it up, with the president of mexico, as to who would pay for thewell. we have more information ahead. we'll take you inside the battleground states we have yet to call, also why some are calling it a tossup, has to do with absentee ballots in some of

more straight ahead as election night continues at 1:24 in the morning. >> there you go. >> pelley: it's election night. election morning on the east on cbs tonight. we are still waiting for an estimate in swing states that are going to make the they include arizona, michigan, new hampshire, wisconsin, pennsylvania, donald trump has a small lead in five of those. he only needs to pick up two, maybe three depending on the state. he has many more paths to victory than hillary clinton does at this point. >> let's go inside some of these states, in particular. want to go first to pennsylvania. again, the largest prize still left on the electoral map, 20

this had been part of hillary clinton's path to victory. she needs this -- donald trump feeds to pick it off if he wants to win. >> she had her biggest crowd in pennsylvania last night with the president of the united states, the first lady, bruce springsteen and jon bon jovi, the biggest crowd throughout the whole campaign in pennsylvania. >> we're talking about 60,000 votes give or take with 97% of the vote the reason we call it a tossup is because there are a number of absentee ballots from around the philadelphia area that have not been counted at this hour. >> and they just don't know how many and how big that could be, that hole could be and whether that could get her close to the 60. >> do they know if they're from a certain area? >> i think they're from that area which is a big area for

she right now, in philadelphia county, has 560,000 votes to donald trump's 100,000. so that's a very strong hillary clinton county. >> the total vote in pennsylvania counted is about 5.8 million votes and, as we mentioned, a razor-thin margin there for donald trump. >> now, looking at the popular vote, which, of course, doesn't matter, it's the electoral vote that matters, but looking at the po ahead in the popular vote, has been really throughout the night, and he's ahead by about 1.3 million voters. 55 million for donald trump, 53 million and almost 54 million for hillary clinton. >> let's go through another some of these key states that we've talked about tonight, particularly wisconsin and minnesota. wisconsin, a state we mentioned the home state of the republican

speaker of the house, paul ryan, hillary clinton hasn't been there since the primary and looks like donald trump swept through the back door? >> looks like she left the back door open in wisconsin and michigan. minnesota looks like at the moment she's ahead by about 70,000 votes in minnesota. so that may not be on her worry list, but that's quite a long worry list, already, with michigan and wisconsin and pennsylvania out there, and that's, you know, those are strong rural votes trump turned out. >> if he wins two of the three, he's won. >> i think, too, we can be talking about whether we would be up all night, whether we will have a tie, the possibility of 269 versus 269. all of that ahead as we continue our cbs news election night

>> pelley: it's election night on cbs and we are watching these final vote totals coming in. if you didn't vote today because you thought your vote wouldn't count, how wrong you were let's have a look at the electoral vote board as the race stands right now, hillary clinton 215 electoral votes, donald trump 244. that hasn't changed lately because the states you see in white are so close we cannot even estimate who the winner is going to be yet. we are watching the last vote

going to have to rely on in order to tell you who has won them. but we can say at this point in the five swing states, donald trump does have a small knew nuc lead in all of those. he is knocking on the door of 1600 pennsylvania avenue and it could be pennsylvania that puts him over the top. there, donald trump with 2.8 million votes, hillary clinton 2.7 million votes. it doesn't get a whole lot closer than that, folks. now here is wisconsin, also, a very close result. let's have a look at the battlegrounds in their entirety. there were 13 states at the ebeginning of -- at the

states that were going to decide the election. the ones marked in red are the ones we've estimated will go to donald trump, the ones in blue hillary clinton and the ones not colored are the states outstanding. john dickerson, how has donald trump done this? >> he's done it by running up the score in the rural parts of america, in the parts when we first met with donald trump back in 2015 in his office he said he needed to turn out the vote that mitt romney couldn't turn out in the conservative base at the he knew was there and he knew he would be able to turn out and he did. >> pelley: the conventional wisdom -- sorry, gayle -- is what the republican party must do in order to win is bring in women, african-americans, latinos, and donald trump has repudiated that and proven that that was not the case. >> that's right. there was a bit of a debate

presidential election cycle or whether you had to get on your way to doing it because the demographic changes would hurt the party in 2020. well, he said forget all that, and he went and did it his own way and found his own people to do it. >> he also said all along he didn't need the g.o.p. establishment to accomplish what he wanted to do and he certainly didn't. didn't. and we should pile up the things against him including the ad sg and allies plus the celebrities plus all the other media in the kind of popular media, the entertainers were against him. he had a lot going against him. >> he smirked at the clinton campaign the other day when he said there is no j. lo, no jay-z, no katy perry, it's just me and i don't sing and look at the crowd that came just to see me, and i tell you, it's a

>> he was right about that. money is the milk of politics, he says. hillary clinton outspent donald trump by a lot. hillary clinton raised about $1.3 billion including state party committees. donald trump, it was about 800 million. she had about a $500 million advantage. she creamed him when it was on the airways in the summer, she way outspent him. she was on the airways when he wasn't. so he's managed to do despite some of the structural advantages that favored the democrats. >> pelley: about six hours ago, there were high spirits at the clinton campaign headquarters here in manhattan but that changed dramatically. nancy cordes is here for us this morning. nancy? >> i just talked to a democratic strategist close to the clinton campaign who said no one is considering this over yet, they

haven't heard a lot of over the past few hours and that is james comey. he argued the reason the clinton campaign was surprised by the close races in wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania is partly because no one could have seen this bombshell coming two weeks ago, that the f.b.i. director would send a letter to congress informing him his agent were looking at new e-mails relate to hillary clinton's use of a private hand many other democrats are going to argue that that turned off a lot of white working class voters who were trying to decide at that point between hillary clinton and donald trump, and further they argued that even a couple of days ago comey essentially sent another letter saying never mind, we've looked at these e-mails, it doesn't change our fundamental understanding of the case. all that did was inject the email issue which has always

the end of the race. it's essentially one day before election day. so you will see a lot of democrats arguing that he had a role to play if she loses in her loss. republicans, on the other hand, will say if she hadn't used a private email account and server in the first place then he wouldn't have sent any letters at all. >> pelley: let's remember the days before the democratic national conventio s having a knock-down, drag-out fight with bernie sanders who generated a national movement of his own on the democratic side. how much do you think that hurt hillary clinton? >> i think it was very difficult for her because, during that race, bernie sanders tied her very closely to wall street over and over again, he called her the candidate of wall street, and that was something that hadn't been a huge problem for her historically but that

firms in the year leading up to her decision to get into the race really showed people felt she was the insider. so he did come around in the general election and get behind her, but he was more convincing making a case against trump than he was making a case for clinton. and in some of these states, i think you will see that the margin of trump could ent up being close to the number of votes that these third-party candidates wrapped up, and those are votes primarily coming from young people, from disaffected supporters of bernie sanders, in many cases, who might have otherwise gone for hillary clinton. >> we had an exit poll about an hour ago that said 74% of the

today made up their mind a month ago. although when you look at the results tonight, i guess the exit polls don't hold a lot of credibility at this particular time -- >> on cbs this morning, he said he didn't think it had that kind of impact. , too she had an array of sur surrogates. the president and first lady, former president, elizabeth warren, bernie sanders, joe biden, all out for her h. do himself. >> you know why they say it didn't matter at the time, there will be a lot of people in whose interests it will be if donald trump wins the presidency to argue to get themselves off the hook and explain why it didn't work out. >> he did say that right after, no, they don't think that had any effect whatsoever. >> in full disclosure, i was a philosophy major not a math

this math, as we put that up on the board trump 244 and clinton 215, these are the states that are remaining, that add up to 79 votes. am i right, bob is this. >> right. arithmetic teacher mary hager corrected my figures and you're absolutely right. >> so we're hanging right in the middle. we have a number of states here. some of these are edging of them up on the board, we can talk about them, but this is where we stand at 1:40 in the morning and why we haven't called this race tonight. >> can i just say you might not have been a math major but you have very good penmanship, very easy to read, thank you. >> it is the least likely possibility, but there is still a possibility of a tie. >> there's still a possibility.

house of representatives would decide who the president of the united states is and the senate would decide who the vice president is. >> and the way there would be a tie is there are two states in the electoral college map that split their votes by congressional district. those two states are maine and nebraska. so main still has four electoral votes. we've not called that. those can split three plus one or two plus -- >> three and one. and nebraska still has one bed already looking and saying when are they going to be able to call this thing? >> we don't know. this is a lot still to call with a lot of reports -- >> you're talking about 90, 95% of the votes in in all of those places. >> where there are razor e-thin margins, and anthony is telling us they're hearing through the wires and the secretary of state

that for some reason haven't been counted. >> is it all about the absentee ballots at this time? >> in the midwestern states that aren't being called, looks like when you look in every county, looks like 99% of the vote. >> where are the absentee ballots, y'all? >> part of the problem, is also, gayle, they think they have all the vote in but in the they're not sure. >> sometimes, particularly true where i grew up in texas, they'd put the votes in the trunk of the car, drive home and next morning get up and deliver the votes to the county seat. >> or see how many they needed. how many ever made it out of the trunk? >> but one of these states we're talking about and waiting on is the state of wisconsin. we now show it -- cbs news shows it as leaning for donald trump.

chip reid has been following the campaign in wisconsin. chip? >> reporter: well, hi, scott. you can see behind me that they've torn this room apart here. this is where paul ryan had his victory celebration tonight on his reelection for his ninth term for the house of representatives and we are told that earlier this evening paul ryan called donald trump and congratulated him on his big night and they say they had a very nice conversation. it's a very i we're going to see between these two if donald trump does pull out this victory because you may recall that a month ago after that tape was released, the billy bush tape in which donald trump talked so rudely and lewdly about women, paul ryan was so offended that he said he wassent going to defend him anymore and he wasn't going to campaign with him. that really angered a lot of trump supporters and tonight some are saying that trump

keep paul ryan from being reelected as speaker. so you've got a real drama going on here in wisconsin aside from the fact that this race is so close and, by the way, when we first came out here a few days ago to cover this, we didn't come to cover it as a battleground state, we came to cover the battle between trump and rhine. it only became a battleground state today. so people really missed what was going on here. >> pelley: chip reid in wisconsin for us tonight. the democrats needed to pick up five seats in order to take control of the senate, and they have failed to do that. the senate will remain in republican hands. we will have the latest vote totals for you when we come back as election night on cbs

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>> pelley: okay. one more time from our experts. we have mark, and michelle. think about this and what do we add to this conversation, donald trump pivoting to governing?

it is someone who has not pivoted really to anything and has been one of the more sort of overused buzz words in this whole election. he never pivoted to being a nominee. he did it is h way. he's obviously promise add great deal. we'll see if he can deliver. >> in prod principles tha tha rr than programs. >> but tone would be the first thing. how gracious would he choose to be if elected. christie is his transition committee chairman. >> donald trump was elect bid people who want him to bring change to washington should he be elected, that's what they're looking for. oftentimes when presidents are eelectricked people see the pivot almost immediately. when barack obama was electted in 2008, people said they could see something immediately change in his voice and demeanor. i don't know if you will see that from donald trump, that's

seen throughout the campaign. >> the last time you've seen someone like donald trump rise to this level of office it was andrew jackson. donald trump will have to turn to advisors who will give him advice on how to participate and run the actual office of the presidency. the question from my first note that he found? a con cilia tore note where he says we must not be enemies but friends. it must be an approach that he is not going to use the office of the presidency to engage in vindictive behavior that he has in the course of the election. >> there is hue multiand vindication. you have a sense he will take

to get him here. i think clearly any newly elected president will say something comes over you the second that looks like you're going to be elected. >> so many things that during this campaign we said he won't get beyond this, but it looks like he will. >> the ultimate i told you so administration. >> although we've not been able to find his way yet to 270 votes. >> you k that is unprecedented in a lot of ways. i think a lot of americans now are concerned about the direction their country is taking. a lot of people didn't support donald trump. i think it's incumbent upon us to be hopeful about the fact that a hot of americans have given voice to concern and to i think a rising well of frustration. >> also incumbent on him to recognize there are great reservations and an active leadership is to reassure a

but you can -- i mean, this is -- for some people, this is a very scary moment. this feels like a thunder clap for a lot of people. you may see the leadership coming from the states, not washington. >> the thing to keep in mind is while we look at this as a moment of chaos and from the world and the market i think they are looking at it, but from thespective of the people who voted for t democracy, sending a message that the system needs to change. >> back to scott. >> pelley: charlie, thank you very much. but wherever you are on donald trump's successes this evening, about 56 million americans are happy about it and 55 million americans are not, those being the popular vote totals. major garrett is at the trump headquarters tonight. major? >> reporter: scott, the crowd and it may start to chant again

bellowing "call it, call it, call it." this is a sense in the midtown hilton where donald trump has his victory headquarters that they are on the cusp of this historic breakthrough propelling donald trump a political novice, no military experience, unprecedented in the history of the american presidency, the 45th president of the united states. they believe that moment isco voters believe this is an expression of their definition of democracy, their definition of what america is, ought to be and can possibly be and believe donald trump is their best voice in achieving that. a couple of quick words about his approach to governing. i have been talking to republicans on capitol hill. they are not necessarily

about dealing with donald trump, one reason specifically, mike pence, the former member of the house, well known, well respected, they expect donald trump to lean heavily on mike pence for many of his first legislative initiatives, specifically to rapidly and replace and repeal the affordable care act. and who is one of mike pence's closest friends in the united states congress? speaker of the house paul ryan. there is some great expectns talking to tonight that mike pence can be a bridge between donald trump and the speaker of the house and a productive one at that. >> pelley: major garrett, thank you very much, major. let us bring you up to date on where the election is. what's taking so long? it's that close and really matters what some of the vote totals are because they are so close in so many of the states. this is the electoral college map we have for you.

well within striking distance of the 270 he needs to win. the states in white are the states where the polls have closed but still, after hours of counting, the race is so close in those states, cbs news has been unable to make a projection of the winner. norah, take us through some of the individual steps. >> let me quickly why we are not able to call this race what rates still remain on the table, here is my rough sketch of arizona, wisconsin, pennsylvania, maine, new hampshire, nebraska, add up to 79 electoral votes and the right number getting you to 270 would win you the presidency. quickly, we've not seen donald trump or secretary hillary clinton yet tonight.

family looking at these results, and we are looking at these results trying to figure out who is the winner tonight. clinton's campaign chairman john podesta left the hotel and headed to the javits center. so perhaps we'll get an update from the clinton campaign about what they see in the results. now to pennsylvania, the keystone state and key to a hillary clinton win tonight. since the last time we looked at this. he opened up a bit of a margin, now we're back to less than 80,000 votes. one of the reasons that cbs news has not called this up until now, the last update i received is there was a question about absentee ballots the n and from the -- ballots in and from the

michigan, looks like to me less than 70,000 votes in the state of the michigan. again, some discussion about absen see ballots around the detroit area. arizona, what has been a traditionally republican state but has the largest number of hispanics of all the battleground states, you see donald trump with a margin there. wisconsin, a state that hillary clinton did not visit since primary, and donald trump is doing quite well in that state but also if you look at the the vote tally, it's close. and new hampshire. look at this. less than 4,000 votes in the state of new hampshire. it's just four electoral votes, but had al gore won new hampshire? 2000, h he would have been president of the united states. >> the gary johnson the spoiler for hillary clinton, the

like north carolina and florida where he got the younger vote, the 18 to 29-year-olds, we'll have to look at the margins to see if they're big enough. we started out the night saying it was very difficult for donald trump to get his six different pathways. now the narrative has flipped. it is very difficult for hillary clinton with those deficits and those three states of wisconsin, pennsylvania and michigan to then you would still have to deal with new hampshire and maine. >> isn't it also true that no matter which one of them wins, it would be by a razor-thin margin, perhaps, in some of these battlegrounds? >> perhaps. but if he were to win all of them, he would be in the 300 range on electoral votes and once you go over 300, you get to

>> but wisconsin. if he wins wisconsin and pennsylvania that gets him over 300. >> is that likely? to norah's point, in the popular vote, they're sprighted by 1%. out of 100 million votes they're separated by 1 million votes so that shows you how narrowly divided the nation is. elaine? >> gary johnson, our team has been doing the math, and with respect to florida, for instance, unde separated these two candidates, but when you look at the combined vote totals for gary johnson and jill stein, that number is in the neighborhood of 267,800 votes. so you consider the effect that the third-party candidates had in a battleground state like florida, we're also looking at states like pennsylvania and wisconsin, the numbers are fluctuating, but now something like 70,000, 80,000 votes in pennsylvania separating the two

about 188,000 votes separating them. so 188,000 votes combined. you see the effect of this. >> i'm hearing from the clinton campaign that the reason campaign chairman john podesta left the hotel and secretary clinton is he is going to the javits center to say it is too close to call. so i think, you know, they know that people are leaving pictures earlier that people were dispirited, some even crying. now the campaign chairman is going over to rally the troops and, according to an official inside the clinton campaign, saying it's too close to call. >> too close to call or not wanting to accept reality? some are saying it's not so close to call. >> pelley: we will be back with nor nbc news coverage of student's historic election.

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it is election night on cbs. we have breaking news. cbs news has now made an estimate in the state of maine. the votes are counted, hillary clinton will be the winner in the state of maine. with its four electoral votes. that brings hillary clinton's total up to 218. donald trump 244. but still, a very steep hill for hillary clinton to climb. >> again, we are looking inside those additional states.