shake-up. a key member of the obama administration about to jump ship to restart his own political career. the battle for november. president obama hits the road to try and rally democratic voters despite his slipping popularity. and california burning. it may be autumn, but it's never and california burning. it may be autumn, but it's never been hotter in l.a. captioning funded by cbs good morning, everybody, thanks for joining us i'm betty nguyen. president obama could soon be looking for a new right-hand man. the white house chief of staff, rahm emanuel, could decide by the end of the week to leave the administration. emanuel is expected to step down to run for mayor of chicago. but he doesn't have long to make a decision.

emanuel has only until november 22nd to file for the primary. tara mergener is in washington with the latest. good morning, tara. >> reporter: good morning, betty. well, the white house cautions that no final decision has been made yet. but, a source close to emanuel tells cbs news that an announcement could come as early as friday. emanuel has reportedly told colleagues he is all but certain to leave to run for the mayor of chicago. earlier this year he told charlie rose that office held a special place in his heart. >> always been an aspiration of mine, even when i was in the house of representatives. >> mayor of chicago? >> yes. the one thing, if you ask me what i miss, i miss the contact with constituents. >> reporter: at the time, the job was filled by longtime incumbent richard daley. but he announced earlier this month he will not run for a seventh term. if emanuel does step aside, white house senior adviser peter

rouse is widely expected to fill the role of chief of staff, at least on an interim basis. adviser and close obama family friend valerie jarrett is another strong contender. >> we'll see what decisions need to be made based on decisions that the current chief of staff might make. >> reporter: family issues appear to be the sticking point for emanuel. his wife and children only recently moved to washington with the kids starting in an area school just three weeks ago. staff shake-ups are nothing new. bill clinton changed chief of staffs four times during his presidency. but the timing of this possible announcement is not ideal. the white house is readying a final push for midterm elections just five weeks away, and still trying to kick-start the economy with the president's approval ratings continue to sag. and if emanuel has decided to run for mayor of chicago, he must act quickly. the filing date for next year's primary is november 22nd. betty, back to you.

>> tara mergener joining us live in washington. thank you. rahm emanuel's boss is on the road. president obama is in new mexico this morning, the first stop on a four-state campaign swing. the object is to rally democratic voters. many democrats face tough challenges in the midterm elections. tonight mr. obama attends a rally in wisconsin for senator russ feingold. feingold trails in the polls. but he's actually skipping tonight's rally. >> the president on another broader level, you know, this is not a year to be identified with a political establishment. and no matter which party you're in. >> the president's approval rating is now well below 50%. he will also visit iowa and virginia. more hot weather is expected in southern california today. on monday it was so hot the thermometers stopped working. the triple digit heat triggered numerous power outages and at one point last night, more than 30,000 customers were without electricity. kendis gibson has more on the

record-breaking heat. >> reporter: downtown los angeles has never been this hot. the mercury shattered the city's all-time record, climbing to 113 degrees. >> it was like walking into an oven. the ground, you feel the heat through the shoes and the intensity. you could see the heat swells flowing off the asphalt. >> reporter: the usually hot temperatures have made to an unbearable start to autumn for southern california. >> ridiculous. the calendar's a liar. >> reporter: the thermometer at this construction site hit 90 degrees at 9:00 a.m. monday, which for kevin meant one thing. >> pretty hot. i mean, it can only get worse. >> reporter: ever since fall began, southern california has been in the grips of this heat wave. with temperatures averaging more than 20 degrees above normal for this time of year. it's not just the heat, but forecasters are concerned about low humidity, and wind conditions in southern california. the national weather service has issued a red flag warning for dangerous wildfire conditions in the area.

>> the thick flames right there -- >> reporter: this tiny brushfire north of l.a. monday afternoon spread quickly to five acres. highlighting the fire danger created by the weather conditions. >> the wind, heat and humidity will carry fire brands to receptive fuel beds, and it will produce wildfire. and so what we're asking people to do is to be prepared. >> reporter: forecasters are calling for cooler temperatures within the next few days. but until then, southern californians are doing everything they can to beat the heat. kendis gibson, cbs news, los angeles. in southern minnesota, folks are trying to clean up following massive flooding that started last week. residents in the small town of hammond got their first look at the destruction on monday. about 60 of the town's 90 homes sustained major damage. the town's bank and restaurant are gone. there's so much destruction, some residents are considering whether to rebuild. a california paper reports an american soldier killed two

comrades in iraq. the defense department says specialist john carrillo and private first class gebrah noonan died friday from injuries sustained during a noncombat incident. the stock and record reports that army specialist neftaly platero is being held in their deaths. the u.s. commander in afghanistan says top taliban leaders are talking to leaders of the afghan government. afghan president hamid karzai has said he will talk to the taliban if they renounce violence. taliban leaders have said they won't talk until foreign troops leave afghanistan. but general david petraeus said monday that high-level taliban leaders have sought to reach out to the afghan government. meanwhile a major nato offensive is targeting a taliban stronghold in the southern afghanistan region. operation dragon strike began saturday. at least 18 u.s. soldiers have been killed in the fighting around kandahar. mandy clark reports. >> reporter: operation dragon strike is the most important battle in the afghan war so far. at least 8,000 u.s. troops are

involved in the massive new offensive. >> this is it right here. >> reporter: the aim is to strike right at the heart of taliban territory. kandahar. >> roger, we have enemy pinned down here in the south. he's trying to fire to maneuver out. >> reporter: some of the fiercest fighting has been in zarhi, a neighborhood west of kandahar. there has been heavy battles here for weeks as u.s. troops prepared for the assault. zarhi is on the main highway to kandahar. from here insurgents can control a major supply route into the city. something u.s. troops want to stop. >> okay you guys ready. >> reporter: it's the first major offensive where afghan troops, as many as 10,000, outnumber the americans. it's also the first large-scale combat operation since marines went into marjah last february. since then they've struggled to clear the town of insurgents and win over the civilian population. u.s. commanders warn of more tough fighting ahead.

the kandahar offensive is crucial to president obama's afghanistan strategy. clearing the city of insurgents, breaking the taliban grip in the south, and then convincing civilians that coalition troops are in control. mandy clark, cbs news, kabul. a bullfight in colombia took a deadly turn. people spilled into the rink sunday during a traditional party and bulls started chasing the crowd. some people were flipped into the air. three men were killed. and at least 37 were injured. the mayor blames alcohol for some of the reckless behavior. also in colombia, a dramatic landslide caught on tape. days of heavy rain caused the mountain to give way monday, about 20 people were reported missing when their bus was buried in that mud. several homes were also destroyed. just ahead on the "morning news," a surprising study about what americans don't know about religion. plus the potential ipad killer. blackberry unveils its tablet style playbook.

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and about lipitor. in south dakota, it is buffalo roundup time for the largest herd in the u.s. hundreds of people turned out to watch cowboys and staff at custer state park drive the buffalo into corrals on monday. there are over 1200 buffalo in the herd. after the roundup the calves are vaccinated and the herd is branded. a new survey is out this morning about one of the most religious countries in the world -- the united states. the pew survey of 32 questions about major religions found that ironically, atheists and agnostics in america scored highest with 21 correct answers. jews and more mons had 20 correct. protestants got 16 right and catholics 15. the survey also found many americans don't know the most basic tenets of their own faith. on the "cbs moneywatch," stocks in asia headed south this

morning. ashley morrison is here in new york with the latest on that. good morning, ashley. >> good morning to you, betty. asian markets lost steam after new worries about europe's banks. japan's nikkei shed more than 1%, while hong kong's hang seng was also mostly lower. today, wall street gets the very latest on the housing markets. on monday, financial stocks dragged the market lower. the dow lost 48 points while the nasdaq gave back 11. the tablet wars are heating up again. on monday the company that gave us blackberry unveiled its tablet computer the playbook. it's lighter than the ipad with a screen about half the size, and unlike the ipad, it will have two cameras on the front and back. it should be available early next year, but the company has not yet announced a price tag. president obama signed a bill on monday creating a $30 billion fund to help small businesses expand and hire. the bill also includes eight tax breaks. the president says the incentives should help create jobs in the short-term.

the planned merger of southwest and air tran looks like a mixed bag for consumers. most analysts say it will mean more routes and fewer delays and cancellations in small cities. but it could also mean higher ticket prices. southwest will drop air tran's baggage fees but experts don't think it will lead other carriers to follow suit. and when tax season comes, be prepared to do a little legwork. because so many people file electronically these days, the irs will no longer be mailing out tax forms and instructions. the move could save about $10 million each year. paper forms will still be available, of course, at the irs office, and on their website and at libraries and post office. but you're going to need to go get them yourself. but for $10 million of savings, betty, i think it's probably worth it. >> i think so, too. i don't remember the last time i used a paper form to do my taxes. >> me either. have the tax preparer do it electronically. it's easier. >> all right, ashley thank you, joining us live here in new york. in health news a potential

breakthrough for people who suffer from migraines. the new study published in the journal "nature medicine" finds a gene may be the cause. canadian researchers report discovering a mutation that regulates the flow of potassium. that can lead to nerves being overstimulated and the painful symptoms of migraines. researchers are hopeful the discovery will lead to new treatments. straight ahead your tuesday morning weather and in sports the phillies celebrate another trip to the playoffs. whatcha doing little bite™? trying to be big like you, dad. you're so good at keeping everyone full... and focused with your fiber. [ laughs ] but you already are great at doing that. really? sure. you're made with fiber, just like me. but best of all, you're the perfect size for smaller kids. [ female announcer ] give your little ones kellogg's® frosted mini-wheats little bites™ cereal in chocolate and now original flavor. they're an excellent source of fiber packed in a smaller size. [ doorbell rings ] oh, it's original little bite™. we're off to practice keeping 'em full and focused.

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here's a look at the weather in some cities around the country. new york, rain, 80 degrees. miami, rain, 88. chicago, partly cloudy, 64. denver, sunny and 90. and l.a., it's a sunny 99. time now for a check of the national forecast. the latest satellite picture shows that clear skies across much of the country, except for the east coast, where there are persistent storm clouds and thunderstorms bringing heavy rain. later today, more heat is expected in the southwest with plenty of sunshine. and on the east coast, there will be cool temperatures and heavy rain. in sports, the bears against the packers on monday night football. with the score tied, chicago kicked a field goal, in the closing seconds and the bears came from behind to defeat green bay 20-17. nfl hall of famer george blanda has died at the age of 83.

blanda spent 26 seasons in the nfl as pay quarterback and kicker. he played for chicago, houston, baltimore and oakland. blanda retired in 1976 at the age of 48. philadelphia wins in the national league east. roy halladay fired a two-hitter, as the phillies claimed their fourth straight division crown. the phils shut out the nationals 8-0, and then celebrated winning another playoff shot. and baltimore shut out tampa bay 4-0. the rays haven't lost the playoff spot. tampa bay leads the american league eastern division by a half game over the yankees. both teams have a magic number of one. when we return another look at this morning's top stories. and it's getting ugly fast in campaign 2010. political ads get down and dirty. hi. we're ready to switch our car insurance to progressive. today just seemed like a great day to save.

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room. it happened when someone opened fire on a house on seminary avenue. we have a crew heading that way. nine people are without a place to live this morning after fire destroys their house overnight in baypoint. three people are taken to the hospital. and the federal government is looking into whether a *power failure* contributed to the gas line explosion in san bruno. join us for cbs 5 early edition ... beginning at five. ,,,,

on the "cbs morning news" here's a look at today's weather. the east coast will get more much-needed rain. showers will hang around the great lakes area, and the west continues to see warm temperatures. the southwest can see another round of record-breaking heat. here's another look at this morning's top stories. cbs news has learned that white house chief of staff rahm emanuel is likely to leave the obama administration to run for mayor of chicago. an official announcement is expected by friday. and president obama is in the midst of a four-state campaign swing, hoping to rally democratic voters. the president is visiting new mexico, wisconsin, virginia and iowa. the midterm elections ece only five weeks away. for candidates in tight races, negative ads are increasingly the weapon of choice. nancy cordes reports. >> -- to pay taxes on $14 million.

>> reporter: with the political wind blowing against them, democrats aren't just going negative, they're getting personal. >> she tripped her salary -- >> reporter: targeting their opponents' private spending, tax problems, even religious beliefs. >> daniel webster wants to impose his radical fundamentalism on us. >> she should submit to me. that's in the bible. >> reporter: in this new ad, florida democrat allen grayson likens his opponent to the taliban. >> taliban dan webster, hands off our bodies. >> i think this will actually be the most negative election ever. >> reporter: evan tracy has been tracking political ads for 14 years. >> incumbents are not spending a lot of time going over their bio, they're going straight at opponents. you take the reid race in nevada, the classic example. >> reporter: senate majority leader harry reid calls his opponent extreme, in three separate ads. >> sharron angle, just too extreme. >> reporter: she struck back with this -- >> it may be the most tragic love story of our time. pelosi, obama and harry reid.

>> reporter: you don't end up liking anyone when you watch some of these ads because they're so nasty. >> and there's actually some design to that. >> reporter: that's because negative ads turn off voters and depress turnout. which makes it easier for campaigns to figure out just how many voters they need to get to the polls. >> barack obama is the worst president in history. >> reporter: all that negativity makes the rare lighthearted ad stand out. >> i guess i'm not a very good politician, because i can't stand negative ads. every time i see one i feel like i need to take a shower. >> reporter: denver's mayor will have to take a lot of showers this election season. it's estimated politicians and outside groups will spend close to $3 billion on ads. nearly 70% of that spending will take place over the next five weeks, making all those negative ads impossible to avoid. nancy cordes, cbs news, capitol hill. this morning on "the early show," an exclusive interview

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♪ >> that's mariah carey who fell onstage, right there, over the weekend. it happened at a concert in singapore. and a wardrobe malfunction is being blamed. carey, rumored to be pregnant, said, quote, obviously heels and fishnets are not my thing. she actually had an assistant remove her shoes onstage, and finished the show barefoot. now that's a trouper. a planned airline merger may hit a sour note with passengers. as we reported earlier, two discount airliners, southwest airlines and air tran plan to join forces in a $1.4 billion deal. if approved by regulators, the two will merge in 2012. some, though, fear the marriage will only boost the rising cost of flying.

mark strassmann reports. >> reporter: whenever susan buckles flies, price means everything. she's the target traveler for today's announced merger of southwest and air tran. the new discount carrier juggernaut in america's skies. >> will join forces with southwest airlines in the potential to spread low fares farther is even greater. >> reporter: discount carriers typically stimulate competition and can help lower airfares. but what about consolidation of major carriers? later this week united and continental airlines formally become one. and the world's biggest airline. two years ago, america had six major carriers. today with mergers there are four. plus southwest and other smaller airlines. air travelers are finding fewer seats and higher prices. on average about $43 higher than last year. >> they've worked real hard to make flying not fun. >> reporter: not fun, but the industry is making money again. and the critical profit center, those pesky fees that airlines

love to add. an average $25 for a checked bag. up to $35 for phone reservations, up to $300 to change your reservation. todd chansy flew from l.a. to orlando today. various fees hiked his ticket from $329 to $399. >> there's just a certain limit i'll hit i will not pay. i'll drive. >> reporter: from april to june of this year major airlines made $2.4 billion in profits. $1.3 billion came from add-on fees. clearly the profit center. $745 million from checked bags alone. southwest charges no fees for changing flights or for the first two checked bags. >> take my bag, not my money! >> reporter: and its merger with air tran may help lower ticket prices all over. >> wherever southwest goes, it's going to pressure their competitors. now will they cut back on their fees?

probably not, but i think it's going to put a lot of pressure on them for the long haul. >> reporter: just here in atlanta, southwest estimates it can save consumers $200 million a year. across america, flyers are hoping for a piece of those savings. mark strassmann, cbs news, atlanta. >> yes, they are. well that's the "cbs morning news" for this tuesday. thanks for watching. we hope you'll join us a little bit later for "the early show." i'm betty nguyen. have a great day. i'm betty nguyen. have a great day. ,,,,

girl is shot as she slept. your realtime captioner is linda marie macdonald. caption colorado, l.l.c. someone opens fire in a house in oakland. a 6-year-old girl is shot as she is sleeping. >> fire destroys a house in bay point overnight. threpe