>> schieffer: today on "face the nation," we continue one of the oldest cbs news traditions-- the correspondents' roundtable. >> we have assembled on your screen tonight six bureau chiefs of cbs news. >> schieffer: from the old days of black and white, down through the years when people still smoked on camera, cbs has been gathering its correspondents around the world and here at home to talk about the biggest stories of the year. this year, we bring in the best of the washington bureau-- chief foreign correspondent laura logan; congressional correspondent nancy cordes; investigative correspondent cheryl atkinson; and from hawaii, where he is covering the president, chief white house correspondent chip reed. we'll kick around this year's top stories and what to expect in the new year. then, i'll have some holiday

verse about the day after christmas. but first, the correspondents' report on "face the nation." captioning sponsored by cbs "face the nation" with cbs news chief washington correspondent bob schieffer. and now from washington, bob schieffer. >> schieffer: good morning again, where we had hoped this morning that there are national security correspondent, david martin, would be with us. but of all things, david had a kidney stone last night. but as they say in the bible, all things have passed. and david is feeling much better right now than did he about six hours ago. so we wish him the best. hope to see him in the new year. you might notice one thing in those tapes of the old correspondents roundtable-- there were no-- no-- women in

any of those roundtables as far as i can see from way back when. this morning, of course, all of that has changed. so, chip reid, you're in hawaii, we're out numbered, so why don't i start out with you. let's talk about the president, he's on vacation and i would guess in a much better human than he thought he would be two or three weeks ago, because he finally got some stuff done during the lame duck congress. what are the president's priorities in the year to come? >> well, bob, i think that they see this very successful lame duck period as basically a template or a blueprint of what's to come. the president will compromise when necessary or when he thinks it's politically to his advantage. but he is also going to fight very hard for things he deeply believes in-- for example, as he did on don't ask, don't tell and as he promised to do on immigration reform. you're also going to see the president use the power of the presidency to keep the liberal side of the ledger happy. we just found out this weekend, number one, that a new medicare

regulation basically says that they're going to have what the republicans decried as "death penalties"-- end of life counseling-- not much the republicans can do about that. and also the administration is going to set aside tens of millions of acres for possible wilderness designation, revering a bush administration policy. so, there's a lot the president can do down the road that the republican congress won't be able to do anything to stop him. >> schieffer: laura logan on foreign policy side of it. afghanistan has got to be the number one concern of this president right now. do you see a major drawdown of troops come summer, or will it be gradual drawdown? >> a gradual draw down if any at all. probably be more symbolic and political than anything else. general david petraeus, the top commander, he is set. he has very firm agenda he is doing everything he can to put

as much pressure to bear. but he is hamstrung by the fact that there's a complete political break down in afghanistan. within the afghan government, and also between the u.s. embassy and the afghan government. there's very little diplomacy that is going on there. that is the number one problem in afghanistan now-- it's not military, it's political. >> schieffer: nancy, let's just talk about that for a minute. how is that going to sit with the congress right now if the president comes, after saying, we're going to draw down, that was part of the deal. is congress going to sit by let that happen? >> probably find some cooperation on the republican side of the aisle. this is one of those areas where the republicans and presidency eye to eye. they were never in that much of a hurry to draw down troops. they always said, wait until the mission is complete, don't rush the commission mission, don't set timetables. democrats might not be too thrilled, but republicans will go along with the president.

>> schieffer: cheryl, let's talk about what the associated press says was the biggest story of this year, and that was the bp oil spill. there are a lot of investigations that were launched this year. where does all that stand? >> you led the way on this program in talking about, you remember trying to minimize the amount of oil that was come out of the spill trying toe talk about how few gallons were come out-- few millions versus independent scientists saying many more gallons were coming out. this is where the rubber meets the road. right now, the penalty is being assessed. the government joined private lawsuits which is trying to determine how much bp will have to pay. significantly, in bp's defense, something that came out favorably for them last month was the presidential commission looking into this oil spill found last month there's no evidence that they favored finances over safety. if they had, if there was every that would be gross negligence and penalties could be four times higher-- something like $17 billion instead of a possible low of $4 billion. this is where we're now seeing

why it was so important to down play the amount of oil that have coming out of the spill. >> schieffer: nancy, let me go back to you. once you get past afghanistan, what do you think is going to be the major focus on capitol hill this year. the republicans are saying number one objective to repeal health care. do you think that's even possible? >> well, not right now, as long as the democrats control the senate. but keep in mind in two years there's going to be another big election and democrats stand to lose even more seats in the senate. they could end up in the minority. that would make things a little bit easier for the republicans. aside from health care, republicans haven't really set their agenda in the house. we've asked them, "aside from that, what else are you planning to do? what are your priorities?" they always point us to the pledge with america and say, these are our priorities. that's a pretty vague document. beyond that, they're looking like they're really waiting to see what the political landscape is before they set out their priorities. aside from what they say is

their main priority-- to decrease the size of government. >> schieffer: decrease the size of government and cut spending. do you know of anything specific, chip, that the president is going to propose here. because people talk about ending waste and abuse-- that's just a drop in the bucket. you're going to have to start thinking about programs-- what does government give us that we can get along without to get this spending back in to line? where does the president intend to go on these things? >> certainly one thing this administration has tried to do all along is eliminate wasteful pentagon spending. they're not going to cut back on war spending, but some long term projects they believe are things that don't need to happen. i tell you, this president even though he did say he's going to recall the republicans bluff on spending, i actually think he will. it's going to be about long term spending. the last thing this president wants to do is apply an anti- stimulus that will offset the spending that he has put through... the spending and tax cuts that he put through in

stimulus number one and the more recent stimulus number two. he's not going to do anything that is going to cut back on the growth of government. so i think when he talks about calling the republicans' bluff on cutting spending is going to be long term-- medicare and medicaid, things like that. i think he will be serious about it. but i don't think you'll see dramatic cuts in domestic spending in the short term. >> keep in mind, bob, now a blueprint out there for this-- the deficit cutting commission which laid out its prescriptions for how to radically reduce the debt. it got shoved aside and ignored because everyone was so focused on tax cuts because time was running out. i think in the new year, congress is going to revisit that. that's one area where republicans and democrats agree something needs to be done. they don't necessarily like all the tough measure that we're in there, but we're going to have a vote on the debt ceiling come march, so this is an issue everybody will deal with. >> schieffer: lara, one thing nobody talks about is cutting defense spending. do you see any cuts coming on that side of the agenda here, because it seems to me, if the

empty is really serious about all this, he's going to be serious about cutting defense spend knowledge. >> one of the problems that defense spending is the huge programs that you have for very sophisticated weapons systems that are not being used, which were repealed and now back on the table again. those seriously have to be looked at. this is no longer an army that needs billions and billions of dollars on these advanced striker jets that are not being used. and this is a war that is not really being paid for. this has serious consequences for the field. and one thing that i am hearing is that the budget pressure on the military right now is the most intense it has been in the longest time. that the scrutiny is beyond anything they have experienced since these wars began. there is no question that they are under an incredible amount of pressure. that's definitely going to have an impact. but how does that translate in to what happens, the soldiers that you're sending in to battle.

that can translate in lives. >> schieffer: cheryl, having republicans taking control in the congress, in the house means you're going to have a whole new set of committee chairs. are we going to see a lot of investigations launched, because those chairs will have subpoena now and be in a different party than the president. do you see anything significant happening? >> i do. as they say, to the victor go the spoils. i don't know if people understand what a significant power shift it is when the chair people of these committees, these very important powerful committees turn over from democrat to republican or vice versa. for example, the committee that does government oversight will you be chaired by republican issa who will go after the f.d.a. something he's wanted to do for years but as republican minority member, he's been requesting hearings from the democrat chairman and all of his requests have been denied. that's typical-- whoever is in power gets to decide what the hearings are about. now, he's going to set the agenda and he feels like the

f.d.a. is a top priority looking in to how the salmonella egg scandal and some problems with johnson & johnson and product recalls that happened very quietly, some say shouldn't have. he wants to bring that the light and bring oversight. you'll see a shift in the targets and focus on capitol hill. >> schieffer: daryl issa is a name we better write down, maybe the chief investigation committee in the congress. i think we'll be hearing a lot from him. i want to take a break, we'll come back talk about who has the hardest job and will have the hardest job next year-- will it be the president or john boehner or mitch mcconnell?

>> schieffer: back now with our cbs roundtable. lara logan, what is the biggest problem that the president will face in foreign policy? >> it's clear, pakistan, without

question. some how the united states has allowed pakistan to dictate the terms of what is going on over there. they denied the taliban now they say if you want to negotiate with the taliban, you have to go through us. pakistan wants to control what happens in afghanistan. and u.s. foreign policy there seems to be dictated by somewhat irrational fear of pakistan's break up. this tiny country that, because it has osama bin laden and nuclear weapons, is on a world stage with the u.s. and other super powers. the u.s. cannot save afghanistan without dealing with pakistan. the president keeps saying that, every administering says that but they don't really take the action that is needed to change what is happening on the ground in that region. and that is without question going to be the biggest problem he has to deal with. >> schieffer: chip reid out in hawaii, we keep hearing the president is going to shake up the team next year. what's that amount to? >> bob, we've been hearing that

for a year-- it never happened. every time somebody leaves, they bring in somebody from the inside. i think they're going to continue to promote from the inside, may bring in outsiders but probably be people who were tested by having been in the clinton administration. and speaking of the clinton administration, you know they like to say they're not going to model the next two years after what bill clinton did after his shellacking in 1994. but on the beach here couple of days ago, i saw one of the president's top political advisors reading "the choice" by bob woodward, which is how bill clinton recovered then cruised to victory in 1996. maybe they won't follow that pattern, but certainly making themselves aware of it. >> schieffer: nancy, the question i ask before the break who has the hardest job, bob boehner, mitch mcconnell, president obama? >> first of all, john boehner has the new majority in the house but going to figure out how to corral his own party. he's got all these new tea party

freshmen coming in. the tea partiers ran on changing the rules. and most of all mitch mcconnell and harry reed and john boehner have to figure out how to work together. this is first time that the senate and the house will be run by different parties since 2004. people are out of practice. >> schieffer: cheryl, you know, again, we see money entering in to the system like we've never seen it before. "the washington post" this morning in a front page story points out that during the very week when congress was working out the regulations to police wall street, the members of the joint committee working that out received $480,000 in campaign contributions. do you see this letting up at all? will there be any serious work done to try to rein in this campaign spending? >> may be work done on it. for now it has worked for the members ever congress despite the criticism, they haven't stopped this practice.

i want to point out that what the "washington post" reported is very common. it's been going on for years. when i look at those congressionally tax payer funded earmarks that the members of congress hand out to individual people, i've gone through one by one with defense earmarks, for example. never been disappointed when i have looked for a campaign connection between the members of congress and entity to which the member of congress gives. they claim it doesn't influence their decision making on votes and earmarks. but it really looks bad and groups have pointed out something should be done. as long as it pays for them-- this is how they raise a lot of money. i don't think that's going to change. >> schieffer: chip, do you see the president making any effort to try to tighten up the campaign laws. because i have to be frank, my guess, i think the whole thing is just totally out of control and i think it's worse than ever and i think the next campaign will cost more than the last campaign. i think the floodgates are open. >> i they are. i think there's very little anybody can do about it right now, certainly in this political environment. but what the president will do is continue for his presidential campaign to raise those huge amounts of dollars from very

small contributors. and that will put him in position to say, at least i'm doing what the law wanted us to do, raising most of the money from small time givers. and he will come trust that to what the republicans are doing. >> schieffer: you're not saying he doesn't get big contributions bucks as well? >> oh, he will. but they won't talk about. you cannot run political pam pain these days without going out and spending a huge amount of your time campaigning for money, and a lot of that have is going to be from very well healed contributors. >> keep in mind even the president's credibility on this issue is a little bit shaky because he initially said when he was running for office that he was going to stick with the public financing. and in the end, realized he could raise so much more money if he went out on his own and did. >> schieffer: what's the sense you mentioned, pakistan we're talking about osama bin laden awhile ago, laura, are we any closer to knowing where he is or capturing him? >> no closer to capturing him. but we've known for years he's inside pakistan. and if pakistan's leaders would

deal with that, maybe then the osama bin laden story would come to an end. there are a number of al qaeda leaders and taliban leaders inside pakistan. the real question to the government of pakistan is, why aren't you delivering these guys? you know that recently i learned that not only does the u.s. know where these people are inside pakistan-- there are whole neighborhoods of taliban in pakistan area. they have their phone numbers. the afghans have this information, the u.s. has it, the pakistanis have it but no one is acting on it which really begs the question, because the big -- is what happens if there is another 9/11 that originates in pakistan. somehow, the intelligence agencies are clinging to the idea that the pakistanis will get that information and be able to warn us. it's not going to happen. it's a pipe dream. you have to deal with the reality which is that the vast majority of terrorist leaders

that threaten the united states today are located inside pakistan. the u.s. is failing to deal with that. >> schieffer: all right. i want to stop and have plenty of time here because here is when i am going to put you on the line. get your predictions of what you think is going to happen next year. and i must say, this panel's record is very good. it was 100%-- the correspondents who were on our end of the year show last year, 100% of their predictions came true. our legal correspondent, jan greenberg-- jan crawford-- won a trifecta. she predicted justice stevens would retire, that elena kagan would be confirmed and that alabama would win the national football championship. the only person who had wrong prediction was the moderator, i thought t.c.u. would win the fiesta bowl. for some strange reason, they didn't. i'm going to double down. for my prediction i'm going to say they are going to beat wisconsin in the rose bowl this year. chip, what's your prediction? >> well, bob, the phillies will win the world series with their

blockbuster lineup. on much more important note, i think joe biden is to some degree going to win the battle over afghanistan. he said recently that in july the president will announce something more than a token withdrawal. i think he's right. >> schieffer: nancy? >> i predict after initial rough patch democrats and republicans in congress are going to work together better than anyone expects, and that the debt is going to be the issue that brings them together. >> i think after initial patch of cooperation between congress think will be further divided than ever. and in 2011, drawing battle lines for 2012. >> i predict come fighting season in afghanistan whatever fragile gains have been made recently in the surge will be reversed. and i suspect that chip could be right, for different reasons-- not that big draw down will happen that joe biden's strategy might in the end win the day because democrats are desperate to get out of afghanistan and seem to be willing to do that. even though the president may not necessarily agree with that. >> schieffer: all right. i'll be back in a minute with

kind of a special end of the year commentary.

>> schieffer: finally today a little holiday poem. twas the day after christmas beneath the capitol become it was quiet for a change, congress finally went home. they stayed longer than usual and actually found, not a lot to be sure but some common ground. the tea party hollered, sarah palin went huntin', the left wing cried foul, said she didn't know nothin'. potus and flotus were gone to a breeze, to hawaii they went with no stories reporters adjourned to

the bars, the news casting subs sat in for the stars. i was just sleepy, needed rest for my brain, and what happened next, i still can't explain. in my dreaming i saw in the capitol lawn a man cracking a whip by first light of dawn, he was trying to herd some whacky reindeer running every which way, first there and then here. his face was bright orange, a suntan hall of famer, i knew in a flash, it must be john boehner. he hollered, cajoled how he did plead, but reindeer wouldn't listen. sit down, mr. pintz line up like a team, please, don't jump the fence. your feeling your oats and already feel cozy, but so did that lady named nancy pelosi. she reached for the sky wound up in the soup, these days she's hurting a much smaller group. her reindeer still snort that it

wasn't their fault, whatever it was-- they were brought to a halt. as that scene faded out boehner lit up a smoke then i could see why, this is no joke. potus was running hard in the tropical sand birth certificate clutched real tight in his hand. can't be too careful, he told his wife's mother, arizona police may be here undercover. it's been a tough year, difficult trip and wouldn't you know, i busted my lip. my own party against me, will that be my fate or can old clinton teach me to triangulate. my dream got confusing i really was torn, the old bull still fought locking horn against horn, the way they were acting it was sure easy enough to see no good thing coming from this kind of stuff. then i thought of this year and for all the bad talk, how before it was over, the lame duck did walk. the start treaty was beginning to gel, taxes stayed even, we can ask and yes tell.

that's why i can close this holiday letter, with happy new year to all. it's bound to get better. back in a minute.

>> schieffer: that's all the time we have for today. thank you for watching "face the nation." harry smith will be here next week. i'll be at the rose bowl with the t.c.u. horn frogs. happy new year.

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