>> axelrod: tonight, was it criminal? new evidence the missing malaysian jet was diverted on purpose. seth doane and jeff pegues have the latest. crimea gets ready to vote on whether to become part of russia on the eve of the vote elizabeth palmer reports on the leaders of ukraine's opposition who are disappearing. >> the billion-dollar bracket. we will talk to a math professor who says he has got the equation when it comes to picking winners the ncaa tournament. >> and we won mathematical mojo and we want to see you are hot going in. >> and history on ice. the story of a gold medalist goalie making her debut in what had been an all male hockey league. >>

captioning sponsored by cbs this is the "cbs evening news." >> axelrod: good evening, i am jim axelrod and this is a western edition of the broadcast. the prime minister of malaysia now says flight 37 at this was quote deliberately difficult disrerted and flew for at least another six hours after cutting off contact with the ground. 14 countries are now part of the search, 43 ships and 58 aircraft have been deployed, and now eight days later, investigators have finally searched the homes of the pilot and copilot to see what role, if any, they might have in this disappearance that only seems to grow more mysterious by the day. >> we have two reports tonight starting with seth doane in kuala lumpur, seth. >> good evening to you, jim. malaysia's prime minister arrived at this airport hotel today to offer new information about this investigation, which seems to be taking a criminal, more sinister turn. >> it was not an accident, malaysia's prime minister najib

razak fold reporters today. >> two of the communications systems on board flight 370 were turned off apparently deliberately. one after the other. then he confirmed that military radar had indeed picked up flight 370 as it changed course and flew westover malaysia before turning to the northwest. >> this is consistent with deliberate actions by someone on the plane. >> reporter: even though the main communication systems had been disabled, najib said the plane continued to ping a satellite, the last signal from the plane came at 8:11 a.m., 7 and a half hours after it took off. >> due to the type of satellite data we are unable to confirm the precise location of the plane. >> reporter: where it went is

the next part of the puzzle. the key question as the search continues, which direction did the plane go? how far and were pilots involved? >> despite media reports that the plane was highjacked, i wish to be very clear we are still investigating all possibilities as to what caused flight 370 to deviate from its original flight path. >> reporter: malaysia's prime minister said that the investigation will be refocusing on people on board the plane, including the pilots and the crew. and jim, we understand from police here in malaysia that those homes have begun to be searched. >> axelrod: okayable, let's talk a little bit more about the pilots. exactly what parts of their backgrounds are investigators expected to be focusing on? >> reporter: well, jim, investigators are looking at any psychological issues, any family

issues. we don't know much about the two pilots right now, the older, captain was 53 years old, he had joined malaysia airlines back in 1981. he was known as a family man, community minded, a man who loved to fly and even had a flight simulator in his home. the younger copilot was 27 years old, he was said to be contemplating marriage and he had just graduated to being certified to fly that boeing 777 aircraft. no real red flags there, jim, but investigators will be looking deeper. >> axelrod: seth doane in kuala lumpur, thank you. >> the new information released by the malaysian government today only deepens the mystery of where this plane might have gone. as jeff pegues reports, there are some new and troubling possibilities. >> reporter: the search for the missing plane is now following a drama, dramatically new path, according to investigator this map shows the last known satellite communication with malaysia airlines flight 370.

investigators don't have a specific location for the plane but the point where the plane signaled the satellite narrows the location down to the circumference of a circle which enables investigators to calculate where the plane may have traveled before the fuel ran out. investigators are now focused on these two large zones, a breakthrough programs but one that encompasses thousands of miles. the satellite signal came from within two possible corridors, a southern arch stretching past indonesia and deep into the southern indian ocean and northern arc stretching from thailand up through western china and kazakhstan, passing through some of the most volatile countries that could pose challenges for malaysian investigators as they try to get assistance tracking down the plane and perhaps the people or person responsible for diverting it. >> analyst walk, juan zarate. >> the am, the reality is this is a terrorist hot zone for groups like al qaeda and other groups in central asia, that

starts to then make this a much more dangerous scenario. >> reporter: so far malaysian authorities have not revealed a connection to terrorism but asking the countries in this region to share information that may be relevant to the search, including radar data and previous contact with any of the passengers. malaysian authorities have refocused their search not only on these two regions but also on the 239 people on board the plane. u.s. military alert levels here in the u.s. have not been increased but, jim, cbs news learned the missing airliner is causing u.s. northern command to consider how they would respond if this was the precursor to another airplane attack on the homeland. >> axelrod: jeff, thank you. they will vote in crimea tomorrow on a plan to separate from ukraine and join russia instead, supporters of the idea are all but claiming victory tonight and outspoken supporters of keeping crimea ukrainian are disappearing one by one. elizabeth palmer is in crimea for us tonight.

>> the balance, ballots are in and so are the polling stations, nothing it appears is going to get in the way of crimea's referendum now. a team of international observers arrived in the capital this morning, all hand picked by the pro russian government, so their up beat assessment comes as no surprise. >> join forces i think that the legal referendum, so i think it is going to be very legal. >> even if the vote on sunday looks free and fair, the context is anything but. ukrainian soldiers remain block kaid in on their bases, armed men with dubious authority patrol the streets, backed by thousands of russian soldiers who may be out of sight most of the time, but are definitely not out of mind. especially after a string of disappearances this week. andrei shchekun is one of them, the head of crimea's ukrainian council he was arrested last

sunday and hasn't been seen since. >> and there is yevgeny pivovarov chief of a hospital in the simferopol hospital in the, after paramilitary stormed his building and on friday the armed men came back and arrested the head of the hospital, act kiewksed him of hiding personnel files. he has been taken away, nobody knows where he is. >> sergei is the hospital pharmacist. >> i pray for his well-being. >> yes, he told me, the word is, his life isn't actually in danger, but just imagine what his family is going through. as for sergei's plans for the referendum? >> absolutely not, he says. it is a complete farce. and, jim, we have just had a statement from the ukrainian foreign ministry saying that russian troops backed up by helicopter gun ships have taken

a village on the crimean side if this is accurate it represent as major escalation. >> axelrod: elizabeth palmer in crimea's capital, thank you. tomorrow will make six weeks six groundhog day when punxsutawney phil predicted more winter and it looks like phil is wrong, snow is likely tomorrow night into monday all the way from pennsylvania through the mid atlantic states, they can see up to six inches of snow in parts of virginia and west virginia. meanwhile, in texas and louisiana, thunderstorms are leading the concerns about possible tornados. >> still ahead, bracketology 101, the science behind the march madness matchups. >>

>> axelrod: it is starting to get madder and madder as we move close dore the ncaa basketball tournament, the brackets will be set tomorrow night and then the great national pastime of trying to pick the perfect bracket will begin. now we don't want to say it is impossible but let's put it this way, warren buffett is offering a billion dollars to anyone who can get every game right. joining us now is david and college math professor tim chartier, i assume mr. buffett's money is safe. >> well i wouldn't say it is totally safe but i would say it is secure. what goes in to picking a team a over team b? >> you developed a set of algorithms to help you in that process? >> yes, we look at all division one games and that is 5,000 games between 350 teams to figure out the dynamics that we think are predict if the. >> and so what are the factors that help you select one team over another? >> well, one important one is strength of schedule, it is not

just your winning percentage, it is actually that you have a good winning percentage against really strong teams. one of the highest predict if the elements outside of strength of schedule is that you go in, if you will, with mojo and we want mathematical mojo, we want to see you are not going in, so we look at you are beating good teams going into the tournament. >> mathematical mojo, you have to keep that eye on that. >> what about things not to pay attention to, to ignore? >> well, one thing is that if you have one really strong player but not a supporting staff, the mathematics we use say often that player can get shut down, so that is not very predict if the. >> axelrod: how successful have you been with applying your ago rhythms to the prediction process? >> the way we tested it is we submit it to online tournaments that have millions and millions of brackets, so in 2009 we beat 97 percent of 4 million brackets and the next year we beat 99.9 percent zero, over 5 million brackets. >> axelrod: how close did you

come to running the table, 100 percent? >> warren buffett would have felt quite safe with what we were doing. it is very hard. usually already no perfect brackets even after the second round. >> axelrod: why is that? i mean, it seems as though it is probably something to do with predicting the cinderella story that you can't necessarily out think that. >> yeah. it is really the madness, it is the randomness of sport, it is part of why we watch the game, we watch the game because you do not know who will win and there is no way to develop a formula to factor in that sort of randomness, no, you can't. >> axelrod: all right. so you are the expert, you are the one who thinks about this thing in ways most people cannot. who is going to win this year? >> well, i can say more when the actual numbers come out tomorrow, but right now, it looks very promising with florida, but we need all the games to be played because, again, that mathematical mojo comes out when all the data is in, but florida is the one we are looking at closely right now. >> axelrod: okay. tim chartier, thank you so much,

we appreciate it. >> you are welcome. >> axelrod: and coming up, how making the trains run on time puts passenger safety at risk.

. >> axelrod: a new safety report suggests that keeping the trains running on time may have trumped safety on one of new york's major commuter lines. terrell brown takes a closer look after a deadly derailment last december that killed four people and injured dozens more. >> reporter: the report from the federal railroad administration was scathing in its review of the derailment and three other high profile accidents involving the commuter rail service last year, joseph szabo over saw the findings. >> we found there were pressures at metro-north that had them set aside safety in order to advance on time performance. >> in addition, the report names other major safety concerns, metro-north has conflicting operating rules addressing cellular phone usage and also

cites poorly attended safety briefings and common and sometimes extensive overtime. metro-north president joseph giulietti said the report is deeply troubling and said changes are already underway. but safety problems aren't unique to metro-north, szabo has caught executives from every one of the nation's 28 commuter rail lines to a meeting where he will use this report as a call for change on behalf of the hundreds of millions of passengers they serve every year. >> there is always a risk on any commuter railroad to take the eye off the ball on safety, and the bottom line is, it can't happen to anyone. >> experts say on time performance is important, but can't over shadow a culture of safety. mark rosenker is a former chairman of the national transportation safety board. >> but when, in fact, you use that as an excuse and begin, if you will, to diminish the value of safety and not recognize that it takes a full commitment, you

can end up with a situation where you see four accidents in eight months with 120 people injured and five fatalities one of which is one of your employees. >> the federal railroad administration ordered metro-north to submit plans to correct its culture in 60 days. the ntsb's final report on the december derailment is expected later this year. >> terrell brown, cbs news, new york. >> axelrod: up next, after one year, what is next for pope francis? ado.

>> axelrod: it has been a year now since pope francis began his reign, a year in which francis signaled that change is coming to the church. drawing some sharp divisions among catholics in the process. mark phillips who has been covering this papacy from the start and takes stock of where francis is headed. >> reporter: st. peter's square at the vatican, a year ago this place was buzzing with rumors about who the next pope

might be, and what he would have to do to fix the mess the church acknowledged it was in. a year later people are marveling at how much change there has been and wondering where it might go. >> there is an easy way to measure a pope's popularity, check out the souvenir stands around the vat kwan. >> benedict was never much of a seller but francis is now everywhere. >> his accessibility and energy have been a revelation after years of an aging and ill pope, and then a quiet rethrough receive one. >> but francis's outgoing nature and his now famous comments about not judging homosexuals have raised expectations that this rock star pope would also rock catholic doctrine. >> not so fast, say those like mass massimo franco who have been writing on the papacy for decades. >> it is a difference of tune but not a real change in the

core issues of the church. >> it doesn't represent, you are saying, a fundamental shift in church doctrine? >> i don't think so. >> changing church doctrine may not be on francis's agenda but making the church seem less doctrine natural apparently s he has called two important senate of bishops for the next two years on hot button social issues. >> the pope wants a new attitude. >> and that writer marco politi says the challenge for francis is to parlay his personal popularity into consensus. >> he wants actually in the assembly of the signals this year and next year, together vote for this new direction. >> reporter: it is not a process without danger. francis runs the rick of disappointing those who want real change and those who don't want any. mark phillips, cbs news, rome.

>> axelrod: comedian david brenner has died, bren whore appeared on "the tonight show" a record 158 times, never stopped working, doing stand-up on the road as recently as last december despite battling cancer. according to his publicist brenner's tombstone will read if this is supposed to be a joke, then i don't get it. david brenner is 78. >> coming up the goalie who is scoring one for women in the world of professional hockey. ume.

>> axelrod: finally tonight, a major get for a minor league, the columbus cottonmouth compete full of players wanting to get to the nhl, tonight for the first time the men of the southern league will be joined by a woman, a two-time olympic gold medal winner at that. here is adriana diaz with some history making hockey. >> when playing a minor league hockey game a step up for an

olympic goalie for two gold meddled. >> for shannon szabado who just won it in, gold in sochi, it is tonight. >> as a hockey player you just want to play the highest level possible. >> it is a step up because professional women's in hockey the money is just not there. the 27-year-old edmonton, alberta native has been competing with the boys since she was five and admits there are differences. >> i think the nature of the guys is bigger, stronger, a little faster, and because of it i think the girls pretty much play a smarter game and love to create. >> she now joins a collect group of women to go pro with men. >> in 2003, her olympic teammate hayley wickenheiser played in the men's league in finland and in 1992 goalie manon rheume made history as the first woman to appear in an nhl exhibition game. >> did you ever think she would be here in columbus georgia. >> cottonmouth coach was impressed by her performance at the sochi games and admits he is

good for the organization. >> i would be lying to you if i didn't think this was going to create a little bit of a buzz but at the same time i wouldn't be doing it if she wouldn't be able to play against and compete at this level. >> reporter: all is a ba doe wants to do is play. >> good luck play. >> i would rather slide under the radar and just play. >> i think the ponytail gives you away. >> i think to zoo. >> she says she is just one of the guys but the crowds will be there to watch her. >> adriana diaz, cbs news, columbus, georgia. >> axelrod: and that is the cbs evening news for tonight, later on cbs, 48 hours, for now, i am jim axelrod in new york and for all of us here at cbs news, thanks for joining us, and good night. captioning sponsored by cbs captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org

abduction of 4 children. anting. >> be on the lookout for a dark- colored p.t. cruiser. a statewide amber alert is in effect for the abduction of four children. a massive demonstration at the state capitol. their message to the governor about a controversial process for drilling for oil. high school students building intricate robots. the lesson kids are learning taking them to regional and world level competitions. >> kpix 5 news is next. ,,,,,,,,

and i'm brian hackney. more on the missing plane ia moment -- but first, breaki news. a statewide amber ales in . >> good evening. >> one of our top stories is about the missing plane in malaysia. we'll have more in a moment. first breaking news. a statewide amber alert is in effect for the abduction of four children. police say the