>> schieffer: ed to in crimea residents are voting on whether they want to reunite crimea with russia or whether they want to maintain ties with ukraine. our cbs news foreign correspondent elizabeth palmer joins us from simferopol, the capital of crimea. >> the voting has been orderly, well organized, and by tonight or perhaps early tomorrow morning we'll probly see a result that will deliver crimea to moscow. of course, although it looks fair it's anything but. the government got the ball rolling here and seized power, they have been working with a huge contingent of russian military and their own paramilitary to arrest ukrainian activists who intimidate journalists and to stop all flights in and out of crimea except those from moscow. the international community will

have real taste when it argues when this referendum is absolutely not valid, not legal. >> schieffer: liz, what do you make of this truce announcement this morning that the russian and the ukrainian defense ministers have decided to take no action against each other until march 21st? >> well, it's a recognition that these little bands of ukrainian soldiers holding firm on their bases all over the peninsula are out gunned, they are completely out numbered and so this removes the tension from the situation, it shows commitment that we've seen from the beginning to avoid violence. but it doesn't do anything to change the fact that russia has overseen a land grab here which vladimir putin will argue was ratified by a popular vote. >> schieffer: liz palmer, thank you so much. we're going now to cbs news correspondent charlie doing da who is in eastern ukraine to see

what the situation is there. charlie? >> bob, to the ukrainian government they say the situation in crimea is nothing but a land grab. they say that the referendum is illegal an and will not be recognized by kiev, whatever the results of the outcome of that there is no intention of withdrawing ukrainian forces there. in terms of the apparent russian military incursion further outside crimea they said this is invasion and ukraine reserves the right to use all necessary measures to stop it. here the city is divided may be able to see a lot of russian flags flying there. we see these demonstrations and protests turned violent over the past few days, three people have been killed here between here and a city close to the russian border. now the ukrainian government has blamed russia for supporting these demonstrations. even going so far as saying that there are agents from the

kremlin sent here to cause trouble. meanwhile, russian foreign ministry said that the situation here is out of control, whether or not that's the case, once again reiterated that russia reserves the right to take all necessary steps to protect russian ethnic citizens. >> schieffer: thank you so much, charlie. former obama national security advisor tom donilon is back with us for more on this breaking story that's developing this morning in ukraine. mr. donilon, what can we do here? >> i think we can do quite a bit. we must, important leadership moment. i reacted in agreement with your commentary, bob, which we just heard. this is an important leadership moment for the united states and for the west. this is a challenge to the post cold war order in europe. an order that we had a lot to do with in putting in place. respect for son tee. this is really important moment and we have to act, i think we can act first to support the

ukraine government politically and embrace it which you saw the president do this week. second to support ukraine government especially now in the short term here with financial aid to assure that it can stand up under russian pressure which will come. third, reinforce our fay toe allies and vice president biden going to lithuania and poland to do that. very importantly to really indicate what the costs are going to be to russia for this kind of conduct. for putin's conduct. that could be substantial. you can stand defiantly in this world as putin is doing and basically hold negative against the rest of the world. you can do that. 13-1 yesterday there was vote saying crimea referendum was not legal shouldn't go forward even the chinese have saying strategic partner. tremendous price to be paid, you're seeing it. cut growth estimates by half, the ruble has fallen, stock market has fallen that is before a single sanction.

we'll see sanctions on monday to begin in the united states and europe. i over you a that for four and years against iran this is a powerful weapon. >> schieffer: you know, apparently putin's popularity is going up at home, he is obviously playing to the crowd at home. like all politicians do. >> that is exactly right. you've seen his popularity go up largely through the efforts of pop began da campaign and getting back crimea which was given to ukraine in the 1950s. there is some of this nationalism which has built up. over time here there is real cost for russia and russian people, it's not necessary. putin rejected in favor of standing defiantly. he really put his economy at risk. >> schieffer: is the cold war that we used to know about is it back? is the war getting cool here? >> well, the cold war was a global contest between two systems with the united states,

that's not the case today. russia is not near that kind of power. but i do think we're in for here, given putin shows no signs of backing down here. i think we're in for a very difficult time in russia-u.s. relations. >> schieffer: under sequestration, the administration had to start reducing defense spending do you see that this may require the president going to congress saying we want do this now? we've got something new to think about here. >> we have tremendous military assets under the current budget and projected budgets here. i don't think it's a matter of defense spending here, it's a matter of leadership, it's a matter of stepping up to the moment here and doing the things that we talked about here in terms of embracing the ukraine government and the cost that putin has to pay. there are costs, this line here in washington, nothing we can do about this is just not true. i think we have ail the defense and military assets that we need to implement our foreign policy.

but this is an important leadership moment. >> schieffer: you do not see the united states sending troops in to the ukraine. >> colorado i don't. i see but i do see united states leading effort to embrace ukraine and support it in a lot of ways, economically, politically, perhaps with military assistant. >> schieffer: thank you so much. we'll be back with our panel in one minute. are you still sleeping? just wanted to check and make sure that we were on schedule. the first technology of its kind... mom and dad, i have great news. is now providing answers families need.

>> schieffer: we're back now with our panel to try to make some sense of all that's going on. that's a large order right now. anne is the diplomatic correspondent forethe "washington post" we welcome her to "face the nation." bobby is the editor of "time" international. also "washington post" columnist and former george w. bush speech writer, michael.

as well as cbs news state department correspondent margaret brennan. when you left, we're going to give you time to go back and get on the phone see if you can sort this out. have you found out anything more? >> they're trying to figure this out at the white house and here in washington right now. what we heard earlier today from the russian foreign ministry that there is now this broader conversation about finding diplomatic solution through constitutional reform. that is different from what the message sent very clearly by the kremlin at the same time which was, we're not changing our foreign policy. this referendum still happening in crimea today we're going to recognize the results of it. and basically putin saying we're not backing down. we'll continue to talk diplomatically what lavrov told kerry today, the secretary of state here. it looks like there is a broader conversation right now. but it doesn't look look there's an immediate halt in any way. >> schieffer: do you think it means the russians are buying time or something significant

happening? >> i think it is a question, an attempt to buy time. when the russians now talk we'll continue to have discussions about ukraine, they are thinking of ukraine as country without crimea. for the putin administration, crimea is already a done deal and what we're seeing taking place with the referendum is the final dotting of the i. that is not what lavrov seems to be saying if i'm reading the tea leaves, let's talk about the rest of ukraine. still a conversation to be had about that. >> schieffer: is that your analysis, anne? >> i think the same officer the russian foreign ministry is elliptical enough that we dent know totally what it means. could be as simple as agreement to keep talking. kerry and lavrov have been talking every day, sometimes twice a day for about two weeks now. and just the two of them taking really isn't that significant. it could also be an indicate or, though, that obama administration hoped for out of the kerry-lavrov meeting in

london on friday, at least some small part that have might be happening which is that there could be a second act. after the vote that either russia would not move for full annexation would do some sort of vague half measure. or that there could be some other kind of way to leave precise status of crimea in enough doubt that it isn't a complete in your face move by russia. and there's some indication something along those lines might be in the works. >> do you agree with the tom donilon he says there really are some things that we could do that this talk really not much we can do when you come right down to it. >> i think the response we've just seen hasn't been very forceful. you have europe internally debating a fairly weak set of incremental sanctions on russia. you have senators in the u.s. senate republican senators does feeting aid to the ukraine on absurd reasons.

you have the president turning down emergency military aid to the ukrainians which seems to have been requested according to the wall street journal. that's something, even if you do want to turn it down you don't say that you're going to turn it down. you want to create uncertainty in situation like this. but i actually agree, i think there aref the russians mover in a major way there are steps you can take about military aid which tom mentioned about sanctions on oil and gas which hurt europe but also really hurt russia. and also measures with nato. u.s. military engage w. nato that could send a real signal. >> schieffer: margaret, what do you think is going to happen next week? secretary kerry said, there will be steps when we last heard from him, this is before this announcement today by the russians.

i find it significant that -- have we confirmed that they even had this phone call yet? >> they have been talking, yes, kerry and lavrov. when we landed and on the plane with kerry coming back here to the u.s. he was going to the white house to have more conversations. to consult on what he had spent six hours talking to sergey lavrov about, because we know lavrov refused to discuss crimea. what did they talk about for six hours then? we know there are diplomatic measures underway, but coming in termss of sanctions this cost that you heard from obama talk about, it sounds like it will be very targeted at individuals in particular. within the russian government but not vat mere putin's money or serovar lavrov's money. but this is going for a targeted sanction. not go fog see that massive hit. what we've heard from diplomats is that some this might be scaled up to match basically the

level of bad behavior that continues on the part of the russians. >> they don't want to let loose with all barrels all at once. but there will definitely be some sanctions tomorrow both u.s. and european. the u.s. sanctions are actually the larger more significant in an odd way even though europe does more business with russia. and there will be some in response to the crimea referendum. but from the u.s. side, they would like couple things to happen in concert. one is that they show a force with sanctions, leave themselves some room to add additional sanctions later also that they get enough backing from the european union, germany is a difficult one there. that it doesn't look like a u.s. only action. >> the problem here is the overall the russian argument. they are using russian minority rights to dismember neighbors

and to relitigate the end of the cold war. there are 25 million russian minorities outside the russian border including in nato allies, estonia, latvia, others. this kind of thing, i think administration understands, europe is beginning to understand has to be deterred before it becomes even more disturbing and destabilizing. >> schieffer: what about that? >> the ship as sailed already on that. it's a show of force, sanctions targeted at mid-level officials. it's a show that is designed more for domestic audience, the u.s. and for nato allies than the russian side of things. i think these are things that putin can and will brush off quite easily. for sanctions to have any affect need two things, one need to really fight and need

considerable international sort of unity behind these sanctions as we've seen in iran, quite effective. syria, not so much. the reason not effective in syria because there is not that international -- not going to get that with the russians. >> schieffer: explain, margaret, why this is hard are for the europeans than it is for the united states, for example. >> well, remember, the harder this crisis, it was all about the economy, all about a trade deal. a lot that have has to do with the 28 different countries that make up the eu the amount of trade that happens between them. but one thing we haven't talked about, the trump card that putin continues to hold while we talk in the west about economic punishment he's about to she, he can go look say, look how much money the russians have in ukraine. not just government investment, but companies they own there. the debt they hold. when this war of ideas cools off, they still have a tremendous amount of influence in kiev no matter who is in

power. that's what the conversation keeps coming back to what sharp economic tools be be used here. but unwinding the amount of financial tentacles russia has in ukraine is impossible to do. >> schieffer: but also, he can turn off the gas for a good part of europe because they're getting their gas -- >> say in response to that, well that also hurts him because he wants our money in exchange for that gas that we're going to use. it's a two-way street. that's what you've heard others say. let's flood their market with cheap u.s. or european sources of natural gas there. >> which is absolutely impossible we do not have infrastructure to supply them with the gas. we have -- two wenters from now, if we are going to replace russian gas we're going to ask europeans to take over for two winters. >> i don't think we should discount that pout tin using variety of methods of international power that he

doesn't have to invade. there are operations going on over eastern ukraine inciting russian minorities, creating incidents. then the largest propaganda in this information campaign since the death of the soviet union. in the ukraine, in rusha in the west through various methods. putin is using variety of methods of expanding russian power without necessarily having to send tanks to kiev bjorn borg would anybody like to volunteer some information on this plain story? it's been a long time since i've seen a story quite like this one. where does this go? does this have international implications? >> it does have international implications. this plane did indeed fly over several countries the get to somewhere in the central asian republic. the question will be asked about india and pakistan and china as

to why their radar systems failed. which there are lots -- already been international indications, chinese are very unhappy with the way the malaysians have handled this. given the trade talks that's something that can hurt malaysia. it doesn't seem to have directly affect us right now beyond the point that all of us get on planes. i was on a plane this morning, something fundamentally upsetting that in this day and age i can take a picture with my phone you can tell where i am, by just seeing that picture on instagram, something fundamentally disturbing by the fact that very modern aircraft has disappeared we don't know a week later where it is. >> schieffer: can we talk about syria which has gotten almost no attention since these two stories have burst on the front pages and tv screens what is latest from there? >> we're at the three-year mark, very, very sad anniversary of

conflict that very quickly became the civil war. it has been in some form of stand off for three years. at the moment the azad forces are not winning but not losing. they are doing better. they seized a very important rebel town just in the last 24 hours. but the rebels are going to keep fighting. they are looking as always for additional western help which -- and help also from elsewhere in the middle east which comes in just enough form to keep them going. >> i was just couple months ago at the border talking with recent refugees from syria mainly from the besieged areas. i think that people need to understand that these are not bystanders, civilian bystanders in a civil war. they are targets. in the starvation of whole neighborhoods. both sides committed atrocities in this, but one side, syrian

government committed atrocities as tool of national policy to cleanse the areas with the support. russians, iranians, hezbollah and where the opposition has not had as reliable international support. it's not a containable crisis. you see the affects in jordan, in lebanon which is being completely over run, whole generation of young people that are being lost and radicalized which could be a huge problem. most of the world is a bystander in this right now. >> schieffer: putin again is sponsor of syria. what does putin see himself doing right now? is he trying to reestablish the russian empire as it were? does he feel threatened in some

way that maybe those of us in the west are slow to understand? what's going on there? >> diplomat is a joke, maybe he needs a therapist more than foreign policy advisors. but if you put that joking aside what you see just very much strategic choices to maintain influence hand to keep the people who are friendly with him in power. you see that with the government. you've heard, if you look at the whole bureaucratic and diplomatic process that has gone through u.s. policy with pushing peace talks that we were cheering the russians on for delivering their guys to bring them to the negotiating table. they got them there. they didn't do much. in fact the effectiveness of the killing skyrocketed during the peace process. made a mockery of it. yet still not publicly said we're done with the russians, clearly they don't have the right intentions in bringing these guys to the table. diplomacy continues with russia they seem to have achieved what they wanted which is keeping

assad in power and hurting the rebels in the process of the u.s. endorsed. >> have they won in ukraine? >> they have won in crimea, whether they have won in ukraine is left to be seen. they have as said earlier arranged the tables at their convenience. any negotiation now takes place on putin's terms, not on obama's deserves or kiev's terms. >> schieffer: thank you. we'll be right back. stay with us.

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>> schieffer: that's it for us today. we hope you'll tune in tomorrow to cbs this morning. they will have the latest on the missing malaysian airplane and we'll be right here next sunday same time, same place. "face the nation." see you then.

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secede from ukraine. the th fireworks explode and jubilant crowds wave russian flags after the crimea votes. good evening. i'm brian hackney. the vote comes just two weeks afrussian troops seized the crimeaen peninsula. the vote was widely condemned by western leaders. [ cheers ] >> reporter: the crowds cheered. the russian flags waved. crimea voted to succeed from the russia and become a part of -- from the ukraine and become part of russia. the vote is taking place three weeks after taken by