>> dickerson: welcome back i'm john dickerson. joining us from chicago is democratic strategist and cnn senior political help tate or david axelrod. david, you've been inside these campaigns and you know what it's like take us inside of what happens when you're in campaign and the numbers aren't looking good, which is the situation hillary clinton faces. >> i remember eight years ago almost to the day when everybody was reading last rights over the obama campaign, we were way behind in national polls and what happens is that every donor in america becomes amateur political consultant, very generous with their advice. i remember during that period one of the donors in chicago summoning him to a meeting that he must fire his leadership and

replace it with people who are more familiar with washington politics. you know, it's a very uncomfortable place to be. but you have to keep your perspective in the midst of the storm and take the long view, make the adjustments you need to make and not panic. >> dickerson: not run. what does hillary clinton have to do at this moment? >> i think we ought to apply some perspective to this. she's still in a very strong position. iowa and new hampshire are challenging for her, but iowa involves organizationf we hadn't started organizing iowa in march of 2007 with all momentum we had, i'm not sure we would have won the iowa caucus she learned that lesson. my understanding they're doing a better job of organizing iowa on the ground that's going to be meaningful in the winter as you -- as we discussed, john. after iowa and new hampshire come series of states with large minority populations where she

has decided advantage. the situation isn't all that bleak for her as these polls would suggest. but there is certainly an alarm should be taken seriously. i think she needs to untether herself from the talking points, from the telepromters from the polling, get herself out of this straight jacket of inevitability and speak from the heart about why she wants to be president, what this cam spain all about. authenticity is the coin of the realm in presidential politics she needs to show her. >> dickerson: explain authenticity we hear that word all the time. talk about the transaction that takes place with a voter and the candidate who they think is quote, unquote, authentic. >> i think people want to know that the person they're voting for is comfortable in their own skin and presenting themselves as they are. is not filtering everything through a seven-second political kind of delay so that it comes

out in absolutely calibrated language which is the feeling you get from them from time to time. they want to know that you are who you seem to be. and i would argue that authenticity is leading indicator in presidential races if you look at the last many presidential races the more authentic candidate tends to win that election at least in the general election. so it's very, very important. >> dickerson: when you hear about 'then 'tis tee a lot of people mention joe biden do you they he's going to run? >> i think he is authentic. he's utterly authentic. he says what he means and he says what he feels. and i think we ought to listen to what he's been saying lately. i don't think he's playing a game when he says that he doesn't know if he has the emotional reserves to run a pat shall race. he knows uniquely what it takes to run a presidential race. i think that this is going to be a very hard thing for him to overcome. and that's what he's been telling us so i take him at his word and ultimately that may be

the deciding factor that he won't run. >> dickerson: another candidate who gets the authentic label is bernie sappedders, he's doing very well in the polls give us your sense of his future and what the obstacles and challenges are for him. >> i think he's done a great job. i have to give him a great deal of credit, he's gone farther than anybody anticipated. it is partly because he comes across as a guy who believes exactly what he's saying is very passionate about it. but the test is different it gets harder as the race goes on. one of them is do you have the dimensionality to be president and it's not just about making a speech, it's about how you relate to people, that's going to be a challenge for him. but the other challenge the one that i mentioned he doesn't have a relationship with minority communities because of the state from which he comes. and you can see that in polling in states like south carolina, nevada and elsewhere. he's going to need to develop that to become a competitive

candidate down the line. >> dickerson: all right. david axelrod thanks so much for being with us. >> great to be with you. dickerson: we turn now to our political panel peg knee noonan from the "wall street journal," john heilemann is the comanaging editor of bloomberg politics. gwen ifill is the coanchor of the "newshour" as well as moderator and managing editor of washington week. and peter baker is the white house correspondent for the "new york times," welcome to all of you we've got a lot of numbers let's start with the democratic race. john, let me start with you, hillary clinton is behind bernie sanders, martin o'malley doesn't really show up in the polls, 5% in iowa but new hampshire and south carolina in our poll he's not showing up. what is the situation for hillary clinton right now? >> the situation is not great for hillary clinton right now it's not just -- the numbers in your poll have now taken another

step in the same trajectory, she's losing altitude consistently in the past six months. the first two states of the nomination contest, it's true what david axel odd, they are unique almost bernie sanders has a purchase in those states this he might have in more demographically diverse states but those for big important states. if you were the front runner, inevitable front runner now losing ground every day in those states and seeing bernie sanders rise in those states you can see what's going on underneath those numbers which is lack of enthusiasm. questions about her honesty and trustworthiness they are bad owe mens' for her. not over by any mean bankruptcy is headed in the wrong direction. >> dickerson: when she tried to apologizing for having having -- not having two e-mail accounts, there were some reports in the paper about efforts to increase

authenticity which we're trying to figure out what that means. you a did she do on that front in reversing? >> must make her crazy having david axelrod being her defender when he took her down. she's not doing well. we also beyond what we see in the first polls. especially with joe biden included we all know from experience that you are always at your strongest before you get in the race. we except anguish, but of course that takes away from her especially with the questions. i thought it was interesting, however, the poll that people say it's not the e-mail controversy it means it's something else. >> dickerson: might be harder to fix because you can turn over a server say you're sorry but if it's something else -- peggy, david axelrod said hillary clinton needs to untether herself. how does a person untether themselves? >> i wasn't sure what he meant, untether from what? from this predictable defensive

persona in which she's very self protective or, i wasn't sure if that was exactly it. let me tell you what i think is most remarkable about what we're discussing here. mrs. clinton has been operating at the highest level of american politics for a quarter century now. and we're talking about her second presidential campaign or attempt to get nomination we're still saying things like, authenticity and you should show your warmth and humor. what an extraordinary in quarter century we still have to have that conversation. they were saying it 20 years ago. to me this all just is start can to feel like 2008 again. inevitable candidate starts to look evitable. if biden got in i must tell you within two or three days he'd be up 20 points. i think he would be such a serious contender. >> dickerson: i'll get to authenticity in a minute. peter since you spent so much time thinking about white house

and campaign is supposed to tell us about candidates and handle these situations. it is familiar in a white house to have a huge firestorm and everybody kind of hunkers down and they have to adjust but not adjust so much david axelrod talked about this, adjust so thatch they go haywire. what do we know about hillary clinton as president from what -- >> the clintons have been through this as you said so many times, scandal, recovery. scandal, recovery. set back some of sort. they're got add it. the rebounders in american politics. we should not as john said count her out by any stretch. if you look at the 2 candidates running for president one person you still want to be if you were running is hillary clinton she has the best organization and money and position despite her problems. >> name recognition. >> but the problems are important and they do tell you something how she would be as president, she's reluctant to admit mistakes, talk about authenticity, i think the

authentic hillary clinton said she wasn't sorry because i don't think she was. i did the right thing, i was allowed to do it, what's the problem. she resists advice to say something otherwise. >> i tell you how you don't project authenticity. by having your campaign tell the world you're going to project authenticity then talk to reporters how you decided that you were going to project authenticity on the basis of focus groups. that's the way you don't project authenticity. one way you do project is go on steven colbert as joe biden you give interview like that, that comes across as -- to everyone watching as human, real, use the word anguish but funny at points. again, whether you like joe biden or not, that's the real deal. that's a human being i can relate to. >> dickerson: once again you win the segue award for the roundtable. now run just a little piece of

joe biden talking about what you're talking about from that appearance on steven colbert talking about his thoughts for running for president. >> i don't think any man or woman should run for president unless, number one, they know exactly why they would want to be president. two, they can look at the folks out there and say, i promise you you have my whole heart, my whole soul, my energy and my passion to do this. and i'd be lying if i said that i knew i was there. >> i hear him saying i don't know that i can trust myself to do this that i might run into something who mentions my son's name and i'll burst into tears. one thing that struck me is anyone you've ever covered who runs for president is 110% in it. believe themselves to be more

possible for them than anybody else he's ever seen. at least not yet. i don't know how he gets between now and when he needs to be serious. >> it's odd that he -- it strikes me as a little bit odd that he continually talks about his struggle to get there, the reasons behind it, struggle is well established it's done. i have a feeling he should stop talking like that if there's any possibility that he's going to get in this thing because as americans -- >> i think it's working for him. i think -- i don't think it's calculated but i do think it's been a huge part of the ground swell around this. the vice president's inner circle, incoming from donors from, elected officials, from voters trying to get him has ramped up exponentially. every time he talks about stuff like this it makes him seem like more sympathetic character. >> i understand that, when you keep saying i just can't -- or i'm not sure i can get to 110%

then two weeks later you announce you're at 110%. >> talk about fire in the belly, whether a candidate with low energy, it is a hard transition from this. the good thing for vice president biden's point of view his support, the calls "run, joe, run" for a long time he was just forgotten. the vice president? i thought he was -- now -- >> exactly. >> uncle joe. >> he hated that. he wanted respect. he decides to run or not on his own terms because you can say the party wanted me to run even if i didn't. >> i have a ton of reporting on this this week, i have story coming out tomorrow morning that i believe the conversation of this narrative but i will say this for now. i have said for six months that i did not necessarily thought that i believed he would not run. i now think more likely that he

will run, i think that he will get in later than people assume. i think that he has more or less the human -- still needs to get over that last hump in his heart get there with his family but i think on every other metric, i think he basically -- >> save that tape. >> you know anything about the -- we have to get money, we have to get registered in each state, all that have stuff -- >> first filing deadlines the middle of november. very acutely aware of when they are. >> dickerson: final quick point. obviously know what gwen talked about this stuff now will drop away once he starts to run does he have the energy for that? >> i think that is the question. again, i don't want to say. he's being honest when he's not 100% there. but i think they believe what peggy said which is that when he gets in, if the things keep going the way that they're going

when he gets in he'll get a huge boost in positive direction that will eventually -- he'll get a big bump on the positive side going in. >> hillary clinton will just sit back let it happen. won't push back at all. >> my goodness. that's going to be something to watch. >> of course we'll all be here. for now we'll have to stop far a moment. we'll be right back with more from our panel.

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>> dickerson: we're back with more of our panel, john heilemann. peggy noonan switch to the republicans. donald trump is on top he's saying ben carson is too nice. ben carson, nice guy, to number two, what do you make. >> ben carson saying i have had lot of experience in business, i've been on a lot of boards, i've been on compensation committees, that's interesting. look, that trump came from no where and established himself, a huge story. ben carson has come up is number two now is a huge story. the disappearance of jeb, that's a huge story. there's a lot of bubbling going on from. we see i suppose trump will now be saying ben carson has low energy and ben carson will be saying, you got to focus on this fellow's character. i think we may see some sparks on the debate on wednesday night. all these fellows have to go

after each other, the first debate was all trump. second debate is everybody else going boom. >> i thought this horse race is really interesting almost more interesting was people's second choice. trump support is wide right now, people ask there is second choice. if ben carson is second choice, he is. ben carson is connecting in a way with people who might actually show up to vote in a way that the trump voters who are not voters as far as we can tell, they are first timers, drawn to the show. i'm not sure how lasting it is because that have second choice question. >> dickerson: and ben carson in our interview, peter baker, he does not want to -- he appeared to say something that might have been critical of donald trump then backed away today wasn't ready to, either. >> the anti-trump. literally nice and not nice. not nice by the way is doing

pretty well in american politics does reward that to some extent. and so to see him at this position whether it lasts or not i don't know. he has to introduce himself in way that people know trump. they have nope trump for years. he's such a well established figure in american society. ben carson isn't. this debate this week is chance for him to take those numbers really introduce himself in real way to voters. >> but he's so calm and deliberate, carson, that i wonder if he can negotiate himself into being a more fiery character. >> calm or deliberate on the stage in this debate. you saw this beak, jeb bush, carly fiorina, all going after trump. it didn't work to ignore him in cleveland. i don't think anybody is going to ignore him. it's going to be a blood bath. >> dickerson: but donald trump is not wrong when he says rick perry went after him now he has

left the race. that it has not worked. >> it has not worked so far. be interesting to see if the whole -- rather than in scatter shot way what it will be. i'm not predicting it, i think there's going to be on that stage people now think we must do something about this. ignoring it is not working either. >> you go after trump or after ideology this is not a debate about ideology at all that leaves people basically one option. >> or lack of. dickerson: let me ask you this question for so long we've heard from republicans who feel betrayed. now lot to show too conservative is that important, whatever donald trump has? >> i found that very interesting. in anthony's work, what they said that was most important to them was business experience. that tells you that in 1992 maybe it's the economy. maybe thinking economic stuff.

it's clear that trump supporters are ideologically all over the place. they are not necessarily conservative. his -- trump support is more interesting than that but i have also argued that the base sifts royaling a bit. is expressing different things. buh of trump supporters are for nationallized health care. that tells you something is -- >> who right now are not necessarily thrilled with trump. they don't know how to deal with it. >> which you see them talking about, we want to build walls with doors. this guy is not reagan they're trying to say. >> we haven't seen an ad, a real ad against trump or money spent. we haven't seen real campaign yet right now what we see is the run up that is why all of the numbers are really interesting. >> in iowa watch those conservatives who like ben

carson better than donald trump. that's an advantage he has. >> dickerson: george w. bush was one of them. donald trump is not one of them. >> george w. bush actually spoke the language in way that people heard and understand. donald trump has been divorced, used to be for abortion rights. doesn't have that kind of background. right now it hasn't hurt him. the question is whether somebody can make it hurt him because it can bring that home to people. it's fascinating that people have adopt him despite that. >> dickerson: peter baker last word. we'll be back in a moment look at authenticity in politics. stay with us.

>> dickerson: this summer we've been talking about 'then 'tis tee. cord to polls donald trump has it, ben carson has it, senator bernie sander has it, hillary clinton's advisors tell the "new york times" she's going to try to show it. then there's joe biden who has his own category. he told steven colbert that he can't commit to running for president because grief at the loss of his son beau keeps cam bushing him as a trip.

>> i was talking about being the backbone of this country and all of a sudden it's going great. a guy in the back yells, served in iraq, all of a sudden, i lost it. >> dickerson: you captain have a president who is going to lose it, biden says, struggling on making something of grief has also given structure to his life. having built a career after the death of his wife and daughter when beau was just a bow. >> mom had an expression, as long as you are alive you have an obligation to strive and you're not dead until you've seen the face of god. no one owes you anything. it's just got to get up and i feel like i was letting down beau, i was letting down my parents. letting down my family. >> dickerson: how have you let them down? >> if i didn't just get up. just got to get up. >> dickerson: joe biden's battle

between losing it and getting up is messier than what he comes to expect in politics where authenticity is often an act. it's an effort to hold on to face and find grace and make something out of suffering. a struggle other people have known. and which feels authentic because it has nothing to do with politics. back in a moment. just stay calm and move as quietly as possible. ♪ no sudden movements. ♪ google search: bodega beach house. ♪

>> dickerson: that's it for us today if you want to read more about our cbs battleground tracker to go cbsnews.com. until next week for "face the nation" i'm john dickerson.

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