>> dickerson: we're back now with cbs news security analyst michael morell. former national security advise other to president obama tom done lip and former homeland security advisor to president george w. bush fran townsend. give me your assessment. >> we'll take into account the point that michael made. i think that the terror threat has metastasized. we had a loft success with respect to that but this is now evolved. i think we're in a new and more dangerous stage with respect to the terror against west and united states. i think manifested itself in isis moving from a focused agenda around building so-called cafiphase to external. that's what we've seen. they have basically announced

they're going to do this since last august they have been by my count launched attacks in ten countries. just in the last few weeks we've seen attacks in beirut, paris, which resulted in the loss of life of 400 people just in the last few weeks. we're in new, more dangerous space. >> dickerson: what do you make of this phase? >> what it underscores to tom's point is that you can't have a multi-pronged approach to fighting isis any longer, this notion of the president's agenda of having iraq first before syria, i think what you're seeing is the global threat emanating out of sear california you must have syria first policy now. you must in order to disrupt the global threat. i think that that really is now underscored by this threat as tom points out in places around the world and the loss of lives. >> dickerson: just -- that is who lived through pre9/11 years there's similarity here that is frightening to me.

another group who says it wants to attack us, you have them building that capability just as bin laden built it. we don't have great visibility just as we did not do that. they have single most important advantage, safe haven, building that capability. we just have major attack overseas. embassy bombs ink and paris now, should be wake-up call. >> i really do think you have to say to yourself did we learn anything to 9/11 you have to do in attack do it now before the attack. >> very good point. it's different and more complicated than that. i agree with lot of the points you made. we have seen systemic break down. which has allowed these large swaths of ungoverned territory to emerge into groups. that's a different circumstance in terms of the amount of space these groups have. one of the lessons of 9/11

giving them operational space like they had in afghanistan is a dangerous thing. and the numbers are a lieutenant bigger with respect to potential pools of terrorists. and last, michael made this point in other forums, the speed with which this organization, isis, has recruited organized itself is substantially faster idea to senator feinstein's point. do today what we will do tomorrow after an attack. >> this is the big challenge. really is the big challenge. the lesson of 9/11 was can we as a nation act before we get attacked. and that is very difficult. your president roosevelt could not bring the american people to intervene in world war ii until pearl harbor. very difficult for president to bring a nation be along. >> dickerson: this is a president who you served, in his

7th year, came in promising to pull troops out, does he have the energy nor fight if it calls for much more? >> certainly, the circumstances have evolved and changed as we have been discussing, there are a number of things that need to be done both president and secretary of defense says that the effort needs to be intensified. especially in syria. it is critical for us to break the narrative of sus says of this organization to, do that you need victories including taking their their capital in syria. i do think we will head towards having more direct support for these efforts by american special operations. >> to do that, the president would have to acknowledge that the current strategy is failing. in order to revitalize and intensify you have to acknowledge, right, what we're doing isn't producing the results fast enough to mike's point. has to have a sense of urgency. >> dickerson: there's two things to accomplish here to squeeze these guys. one is we have to put pressure

on them in the safe haven and shrink the safe haven that's is lesson learned number one of defeating al qaeda in south asia. number two, remove leadership in rapid succession. those are the two things you have to accomplish. >> dickerson: tom, if dealing with syria in isis requires getting assad out of the way, seems the tension with assad, u.s. wants them gone, russians don't, isn't that a hurdle that needs to be cleared to get some real progress? >> it's a hurdle. but i don't think that should stand in the way of the military operations that we can launch working more intensively. but it's a new phase. i do think it's a new more dangerous phase here that requires new and additional steps. i would not have the effort to take down isis and to take rocca to support directly the kurdish and arab forces in syria. i would not have that be held up by the political process which has to go done.

and parallel but it shouldn't be an obstacle to -- the russians have an interest here in defeating isis, they have hundreds if not thousands of russians who have come into this fight from russia, they have 224 russians killed in this airline attack we believe by isis and sinai. to date they haven't put their focused effort on this, that should be a test for them here. as to whether they can get themselves to act here in coordination with the rest of the nation natural community against isis. >> dickerson: your homeland security expertise, in conversation with they can about syrian refugees what is your take on how much threat that is and how the administration handled the debate? >> l really interesting to me, the president made impacksed humanitarian argument. i believe he does care about of the refugees, he's not made the most persuasive which is the national security argument. to not bring refugees in you leave these people in desperate

circumstances and you see the battlefield that are the camps to recruitment of isis, al qaeda. you lead he those potential new recruits to our children and grandchildren to fight generations later. second thing is, we've had real trouble getting good hum in a tell generals off the ground in sear california these people are fleeing isis, may represent real opportunity at gathering human intelligence as you take them in. the other thing i don't understand republican's point of view. they allowed themselves to be painted as anti-refugee when i think what they're trying to articulate and say, we're anti-isis, we're anti-al qaeda. they are using refugees to insert themselves. both sides seem to be sort of almost intentionally talking past each other, there really is a rational middle ground. >> dickerson: mike, i want to ask you about this motion of rules of in gaugement. do you get the sense that the way in which the u.s. is take

can the fight to isil, my reporting lot of people said there's real concern about collateral damage that blocked some of the activities. has that changed? >> i don't believe it's changed. there's very strict rules of engagement with regard to human collateral and environmental damage from that. i think something we need to look at. allows for collateral damage as lock as proportionate to the military gain. we have very strict standards for important purposes, need to look at that. >> i think a number of new efforts will be taken. i want to go to france and refugees, this is an important point. most difficult way to get at the united states go through the screening process, it's not a large number, it takes 18 to 24 loss but we do have real homeland security issues. >> that's right. >> that europe has real flaws in

external border control, intelligence sharing, airline passenger list we need to insist that the europeans clean this up and way to do that i think is pressure that. clean it up, we don't participate. >> dickerson: last word to you, tom. thanks for being us with us we'll be back in a moment. i absolutely love my new but the rent is outrageous. good thing geico offers affordable renters insurance. with great coverage it protects my personal belongings should they get damaged, stolen or destroyed. [doorbell] uh, excuse me. delivery.

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we're glad to have you. let me start with this refugee question where we left off. people from other countries that you thought were dangerous but in the conversation today the word is seems to be from experts more about visa waivers say people he do come in through europe, countries where you don't need the kind of screening that you have with refugees. why isn't that the bigger problem? >> i think it's all of the above. my bill would have addressed refugees, students, visitors and those who want to emigrate from countries that have significant jihaddists movements. even just isolating on the refugee thing. we had two iraqi refugees come to my hometown then wanted to buy stinger missiles. one had fingerprints in our database system because he had his fingerprints on a bomb fragment from iraq yet we didn't catch him. this was just a couple of years ago we were not vetting refugees adequately. the boston bombers also came here as refugees became

radicalized for the president say there's no danger is incorrect. i do agree with those who say that these are waiver programs is a problem. there are many french citizens who want to attack their government and attack us. we have no program for screening them. i say they should all come in through global entry sort of frequent flier program, we have to get background check or wait 30 days. right now we have nothing in place i think we are at great deal of risk from variety of sources, refugees but also visa waiver nations. >> dickerson: you have consistently been cautioning your party about overseas military involvement and you've said on these issues, be strong in the homeland keep them from coming in. but has the paris -- growth of isis changed your mind in terms of this argument you have to get them there. you have to fight isis in iraq and syria, degrade them in their operating space so that they don't even get chance to come to america. >> i think the first thing we have to do learn from our history. past several decades if there is

one true thing in the middle east that when we've toppled secular dictators we have chaos. by toppling saddam hussein we're suffering that by toppling gadhafi in libya. we have chaos and third of libya pledges allegiance to isis. by pouring weapons into the syrian civil war on the side of islamic rebels who are actually allied with al qaeda some of whom became isis that was mistake. the ultimate solution, if we want long lasting victory, lasting peace, what we have to do boots on the ground have to be arab, you have to have sunni muslims defeating sunni muslims. even the shiite muslims can't occupy these cities. isis is surrounded but what we have to do we do need a cease fire in syria, probably russia is going to be part that have solution if we're willing to talk with them. also need to engage turkey on one side. we need tone gauge the kids on one side.

we need to get the baghdad army to become less of a sectarian shiite army, when you include significant sunnis in that army when they go into the lands that have been captured by isis, then it will be sunni muslims coming into the towns and recapturing them. nothing else is going to cause a lasting victory. >> dickerson: come back to the homeland here for a moment. you have been very careful about stopping overreach in terms of u.s. surveillance. we've had some talks this morning about encryption being the big back door the way these terrorists can communicate. what is your sense -- how much do you worry that there will be overreach in terms of additional surveillance operations? >> i'm very worried about. that because i think when you have a fearful time or an angry time, that people are coached into giving up their liberty. already many in the intelligence community, if we only had the bulk phone collection program back, what they're not telling you what they're being dishonest about we still have the phone collection program, all phone records are still being

collected all the time. we still have the attacks. realize that in france they have bulk collection or surveillance of their citizens a thousand fold greater than what we have with very little privacy protections, they still didn't know anything about. this so what i would argue is, if you can keep giving up liberty, but in the end i don't think we'll be safer but we may have lost who we are as a people in the process. i'm going to fight to make sure that doesn't happen. >> dickerson: in the last 20 seconds, surveillance of mosques, do you put that in the same category in terms of overreach to answer this threat? >> if you're going to do surveillance to religious institutions, yes. i think surveillance has fairly throw threshold or individuals. i think the discussion should be, will we have surveillance, will we follow people who we think are a risk. that is a lower threshold. yes, we should follow people who are at risk, should we talk to their neighbors and friends, should we talk to their imam.

all that have is legitimate but target mosques have database of muslims? absolutely not. i think that is reel lay disqualifying both donald trump and marco rubio to say we'll close down every place that potentially has a discussion that might lead to extremism. that would require some sort of religious czar which isn't consistent with our freedom. >> dickerson: than ch for being with us. we'll be back with our battleground tracker poll.

>> dickerson: we'ring with with new results from our cbs news battleground tracker. in iowa the ground has shifted. donald trump is still in first, he's out front in 30%. but ted cruz is picking up now at 1%. ben carson has cropped to 19%. down eight points from last month. after carson, marco rubio comes in at 11. next candidate is jeb bush with 5%. and carly fiorina at four. rest is two percent or lower. in new hampshire again it's donald trump on top with 32%. marco rubio has made gains there is now at 13%.

ben carson drops to 10% where he's joined with ted cruz, john kasich is at eight. jeb bush, rand paul, carly fiorina at 6%. rest of the field is at 1% or less. south carolina is all donald trump, too. he's at 35%. carson at 19. rubio close behind there with 16%. senator cruz at 13%. jeb bush comes in with 5. and rest of the field is at 3% or less. take closer look at those numbers with our political panel, ruth marcus from the "washington post," karl rove was the top political advisor to george w. bush. and he's out with a new book "the triumph of william mckinley: why the election ever 1896 still matters" and ron brownstein. ben carson slips in iowa what does that mean?

>> has taken lot of questions about whether he's up for the job. as you get closera0&ae those -e polls in general, donald trump whatever reason polls a little better in online only polls like this that we see otherwise he was at 22 in "boston globe" poll today. in new hampshire. but having said that there's no question strong position, this shift toward the nexus of immigration and terrorism. i would say republican race still boils down to two sentences. donald trump is consolidating the blue collar wing of the republican party with 41% nationally. the college and white collar wing remains track furred. he's at 23 there. no one really is there. the question is does the race look different at any point when someone eventually does consolidate that. not that donald trump is going anywhere with his support and more blue collar popular part. >> dickerson: has it changed after paris? >> i think it has changed after

paris, your guest on enl earlier senator rand paul will suffer in the new environment. sass i believe ben carson who is admirable person but unable to answer these questions. donald trump what's interesting to me it doesn't matter. he is the man who was saying in essence, leave isis up to putin to handle, it's no concern of ours now we're going to bomb the expletive out of them. it really doesn't matter. ron made the point that he's strang, relative to the rest of the field he is strong. but he has high floor and low ceiling what is going to be hard for him to move out wherever he is. the rest of the field is beginning to son sol date around notion, it shouldn't, must not be trump that is bad news for him. maybe good news for the two people in the polls that were moving. ted cruz and marco rubio. >> dickerson: let me ask you about themf it's a conversation about isis and homeland security threats in our battleground tracker poll we asked the

commander in chief question. ted cruz comes in 67% think he is ready to commander in chief. 51% think marco rubio that may just be affection translating into another question. but on this question, explain to me what people are thinking when they look at this. do they want somebody just talking strength or do they want somebody who can talk about the geographic complexity and different groups fighting? >> i don't think they know what they want. i don't think they know what they mean when it comes down to specific candidates, somebody who seems, quote, presidential in nature. seems to have a command of foreign policy, who says things that make them feel that they know what they're doing. and let's put something else in perspective. we may think we're close because we're going to start vote can the first of february but we are a long, long way away from this. in iowa, in 2008, over a third of the voters made up their minds literally closing days of the contest. it used to be in 1999 and 2000 feet voting on literally the second of january that people

began to consolidate after thanksgiving. now doing it a month later. we're likely to she several different changes here, the deeper people get a sense of what it is they specifically want, deeper their likelihood is to be link with particular candidate. >> i spent last sunday with evangelical churches around des moines and ames it reinforces what carl said what the findings of your poll are. people are still taking account and digesting the lessons of paris. lot of the people i talked to were still saying nice things about dr. carson but second person they mentioned was ted cruz. i think the emergence of ted cruz in these polls and potential emergence of marco rubio in new hampshire kind of tells you the shape of this race going forward. >> dickerson: do you think democrats will have any opportunity to exploit some of the things republicans have said with respect to these refugees? there's a lot of the left, does that last to the general? >> i think it does last to the

general. i have to say this week i've been nostalgic for the good old days of george w. bush and his soothing, calming responsible words about muslims back in the 9/11 attacks. this was a very ugly week for republicans in terms of their response on refugees. i think it was -- something that was exacerbated by failure of president obama to explain to people that they weren't crazy to be nervous, but to understand their nervousness to explain it away. >> dickerson: karl rove has to respond to that. >> just say, if president obama had said, speaker ryan, you're right. we need to tap the brakes, let's do what you suggest, what you and significant number of democrats suggest, this was a veto-proof vote out of the house of representatives. if he had said, senate, take that bill up, get it passed i'm going to sign it we'll tap the brakes and put in place the things that will require these

people to recertified. it would not take long for him to make what necessary changes, would have been a confidence building measure. the president is exploiting us for politics, he doesn't care about the -- >> dickerson: very quick points. >> one think that i up lower over the refugees has to be continuation of debate that is going on in the republican primary about whether undocumented immigrants the borders are basically threat to your safety. this is big theme. having said that i think the more important line in the end, what happens with 10,000 syrian refugees, tens of thousands of american troops, dividing line that hillary clinton but r put down, no lodge scale american ground force may ultimately be more point of separation with the republican nominee next year than question of what to do with the refugees today. >> dickerson: 20 seconds ruth on hillary clinton. connection to the obama administration what some people feel as failure on isis or help because she knows this terrain in terms of the issue?

>> i think it's a mixed bag, people who are going to vote for any democrat be are going to vote for her anyway. but i think in contrast with bernie sanders and long term benefit. >> dickerson: sorry. thanks to all of you. we'll see you again next week, mr. rove for our presidential authors panel. thanks for joining us. can a business have a mind? a subconscious. a knack for predicting the future. reflexes faster than the speed of thought. can a business have a spirit? can a business have a soul? can a business be...alive?

>> dickerson: until next week for "face the nation." i'm john dickerson.

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as the city remains on high alert for a possible attack. we will dismantle their networks, we will cut off t . tonight, more terror suspects in brussels, as the city remains on high alert for a possible attack. >> we will dismantle their networks and their supply lines and we will ultimately destroy them. >> president obama getting tough on isis. the new coalition plan to fight the terror network. good evening. i'm brian hackney. >> i'm juliet goodrich. 16 people in nearly two dozen rates in brussels. the dangerous fugitive from paris is still on the run. the raids are over for today, but officials are warning people