>> dickerson: welcome back. cbs news election director an none knee salvanto with new battleground tracker results. let's start in iowa, ted cruz is on the rise. what's behind that? >> really direct transfer from ben carson voters to ted cruz. you might recall earlier this fall, ben carson was really up there in fact he was tied with donald trump at one 0eu7b9. as his voters have fallen away, they have moved to ted cruz in much larger numbers than anybody else. in fact we reinterviewed those same voters and they told us that in larger numbers, they were choosing cruz. some of them went to trump some went to rubio. cruz got the lion's share there. it looks like evangelical voters really asserting themselves here. as they do in iowa, they make up the bulk of the republican caucus goers. if you look at what people say

is their number one issue, most it's terrorism. lot to say the economy. those say that faith and values and religious matters are number one that's where cruz really has an enormous lead over trump that is the difference. >> dickerson: so, if cruz is pulling from evangelical taking them away from ben carson, what is happening to the trump vote is he staying solid? >> rock steady. you look at those same individuals again reinterviewed they stay with donald trump. and his -- >> dickerson: you've been interviewing them over a period of time. there's been challenge after challenge the donald trump that could knock them off but they're sticking with him. >> they stick with him. as you see in your focus groups and others, everybody says, donald trump said something controversial, he must go down. surely donald trump will go down. he doesn't go down. voters stay with him. republicans say that in general they are glad he says the things that he says. they think, even if they don't agree, although many do that

they're glad these things are out there being discussed. >> dickerson: that's happening with him in new hampshire as well as pretty much case of donald trump everywhere. what else are you seeing in new york? >> donald trump still at number one. still holding steady. you do see another move there a little bit to cruz from carson, but you've got rubio then in contention in double digits there. everywhere. now, chris christie. he has doubled his support from last time in new hampshire. so he's in that second tier there now. a little bit of evidence that retail politics is helping him, people who say they like seeing the candidates in person, but also he, along with donald trump, seen as effective that's how they describe him. that's different from saying marco rubio his calling card looks likes electability. that's different from effective. that's how you define mainstream in that, as voters start to play political consultant, they look ahead to that general election.

they're looking for somebody who is electable. where as that group of republicans who think that government doesn't work any more, that's where you go for the effective canned day. they think they can get conservative things done. although i wonder if in an age of jitteriness and fright in response to the terror attacks whether effective suns also about what is going to keep me safe as to who can get elected. >> it's certainly is. there's numbers that jumped out here where nine in ten republicans say this they feel the u.s. is becoming more dangerous and insecure. we just didn't see those kind of overwhelming numbers no matter what ask you. it speaks to your point about anxiety. also that's layered on top of economic insecurity, too. which has been throughout this whole campaign. again, eight, nine, ten of these voters feel u.s. economic system doesn't help them. when you think of the system doesn't work, not just things are going in the wrong direction

that's where you to go a candidate that might say, change the whole system. >> dickerson: all right. if that is what is happening on republican side switch over to the democratic side they had debate last night. what do the numbers show for those three folks? >> hillary clinton sauce in iowa, berry sappedders in new hampshire. now, in iowa what you see is, bernie sanders everything hard time getting traction. i think that that means that hillary gets lion's share. but what is interesting about this whole race, john, is that democrats are happy with the tone and tenor of it but don't want the see them go at each other any more than they already are. we asked them, do you want to see bernie sanders be more critical of hillary clinton and his voters say, no, just fine with that. in fact you ask him how do you feel about hillary clinton, they like her, but they like bernie sanders better. you ask her voters what they think of bernie sanders'

message, they like it. but like hillary better. not ascension of let's be more combative here. it's a family quarterback but not a lot of -- >> dickerson: they can squabble but is all a hug. thanks so much. >> thank you, john. dickerson: we'll be back in a moment. in panama, which is a city of roughly 2 million people, we are having 5,000 new cars being sold every month. this is a very big problem for us with respect to fast and efficient transportation. it's kind of a losing proposition to keep going this way. we are trying to tackle the problem with several different modes. one of them is the brand new metro. we had a modest forecast: 110,000 passengers per day in the first line.

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>> dickerson: joining us for political analysis is wall 12 journal columnist and cbs news contributor peggy noonan. democratic strategist and cnn political commentator david axelrod. chief correspondent of the "washington post," dan balz, atlantic's national correspondent, jeffrey goldberg. welcome to all of you we have two debates this week on both sides. let's start with the republican debate. now dan we have two debates within the republican debate. let's start with cruz-rubio. what is that about? >> two things, john. one i think each of them and each of their campaigns believes that they are going to be in a final showdown with the other. and so they have been preparing for this, they have done all the opposition research on one another. it's now coming out. the second is, that cruz's strategy to consolidate a broader piece of the conservative part of the republican party.

most conservative part than anybody's ever been able to do. rubio is trying to crowd into some of that territory. so rubio is trying to suggest that cruz is not as conservative say on immigration as he claims. and cruz is trying to hold the line and put down a firmer conservative position the dynamic of that is what we've seen play out this week. >> dickerson: peggy, seems to be cruz taking look at the cruz strategy here which the tie marco rubio to his support of the gang of eight. immigration reform that passed in the senate to just lock him to that. how damaging do you think that is in the republican side to be associated with comprehensive immigration reform? >> well, we'll see. it's not where the base is. i think if we've learned anything this year, it is that the base of the republican party is against illegal immigration, wants something done. the establishment elites the

top, if you will, has for 15 years not been so anti-illegal immigration. there's a difference f. you're a candidate right now you're trying to talk to the base of the party. i've been part of what is going on with cruz and rubio is that by the end of new hampshire, say, there's going to be trump and there's going to be two viable nontrumps and each of them, cruz and rubio trying to be the top viable nontrump. i think that is going on. i think cruz -- sorry, rubio is trying very hard to paint ted cruz as someone who simply isn't trustworthy. he doesn't tell you the truth. i think that's what's going on there. >> dickerson: that's the bigger message what he's doing. david, when you look at this, seems like what happened is marco rubio how has to own his sponsorship of the gang of eight. dan said, ted cruz has gone from

whatever reason flirting with the idea of legalization, he says it was strategic move he was doing it at the time, rare corubio said it showed his through intent, his view now, cruz no pass to anybody no how for anybody illegal. which of those positions would do better in the general election context? >> obviously, the more severe position you take against immigration reform the more difficult it is. we saw mitt romney struggled with this in 2012. ended up with 27% of the hispanic vote which was really tripling for him. george w. bush, the last republican to win 14 with w-4 4% becoming more diverse country with each election. the interesting thing between fight, rubio clearly trying to obviate what he sees as vulnerability. i think it's larger than the issue itself. notice cruz always calls it the rubio bill. it was the notion that he was police with it democrats the face of the republican part

tired of republicans being police with it democrats. they're frustrated they wanted more purity. ted cruz played to that. ted cruz understands where his base s. marco rubio tried to please every faction of the republican party. may just end up as everybody's second choice. >> dickerson: jeffrey, the ad that ted cruz is running if you can get a picture of schumer and rubio in the same frame makes the pointed that david is making. where as the rubio case against cruz is one that is more -- you have to follow what he used to say. >> right. going to peggy's point it's about trustworthiness. if marco rubio can convince some of the republican base that ted cruz no different than the washington politicians he claims to hate more than anyone else in the race, then rubio feels that he's getting somewhere. but i would go back -- this is the worry if you're a rubio just to add on to something david was saying. the worry that you're rubio that you're everyone fall-back date.

he can be extraordinarily popular coming second or third everywhere. i think that is my sense talking to people over the last week is that the rubio campaign now seized by this concern. >> dickerson: what is rubio's path? i spent some time this week talking to folks in iowa they thought, it's not happening here, at the time cruz is on the rise they want to find a path for marco rubio. >> it is hard to find. iowa is not his best state by far. new hampshire is a muddle right now. donald trump stands above everybody else but that stage is in flux, you can see from the new polling numbers that you all have this morning. how much dynamism there is in that race. south carolina doesn't look particularly good for rubio. there some are rubio people who think it ultimately could be. leaves with you nevada. as we've talked before of the first four states nevada is the fifth. in importance, it just doesn't

have the kind of weight that the other three have. he has to figure out a way to be high up in all of those states and hope that that's enough to keep him moving. >> dickerson: that goes back to your point about a nontrump candidate. the way people were talking if they put trump and cruz in the same basket they're looking for mainstream candidate hoping that rubio would come out not being that. he didn't, the field is split there are several nontrump candidates. >> there's the sense that cruz is on the upelateo and cruz on the downe, thereator. the republicans are making a mistake on. the cumulative a neglect of what they say at their debates. i love it that they're fighting and hitting each other over the head and occasionally addressing serious issues in a serious way. but the cumulative effect of these sort of harshness and even unlovingness of their rhetoric

on immigration is going to, in the end, hurt them. i also think sort of severity and drama of their language on isis makes them look radical, you know what i mean, as opposed to people -- not panicy, jeffrey, but extreme. do you know what i mean? >> belligerence to the -- yes, but that is the -- you don't have to be belligerent. >> start talking about carpet bombing whole cities. >> and stuff like that you can be very strong, very definitive, very seriousness. but might use this harsh, severe, over the top rhetoric. misunderstanding their own base, i think. >> reality, though, is -- jeff's written about this, there are no easy answers to the situation that we face. and so the substitute for a coherent answer is, let's be as

strong, because i think people are tired of the complexity of the situation. and they're responding to strength and that's how -- transsupplies the kind of language that you're talking about. >> they do want strength they don't want bragadochio. >> i don't disagree with you. >> they seem to want that. what is donald trump giving them but bragadochio, whatever he says he maintains his numbers. >> 62 in the debate. almost talking about shoot down russian planes. >> we for countries, let's remember that there's a primary electorate then there's a general election. i agree with you in the general election that kind of rhetoric can be crippling but in the primary and given sort of red hot nature of the republican base you get the affect that you see with trump. where people are responding. he is the anti-obama.

i always believe that the incumbent sets the term of the debate. people never choose replica of what they have particularly the other party. there's no one more anti think sis to barack obama than donald trump. >> dickerson: give us your read on stick on republican side, foreign policy credit kick. there were some proposals where you said that is a distinction from the president that represents clear break envision that people can rally behind? >> the guy with the most original concept is polling at zero, lindsey graham. who talks about ground troops. the thing that is really noticeable, obviously, republican debate has this unreal quality to it. because they're taking as if president obama is not doing the things he's doing they're talking about -- again we talked about this in the past. there's this kind of pick one from column a and one from column b.

everyone has their idea that no fly zone, sunni army materializing out of no where. and these are all things that president obama is trying to some degree -- not the safe zone or the no fly zone but they're proposing tactics and they're suggesting that a war is not actually taking place already. nothing very original that i'm hearing from most of these republican candidates, that's the simple truth of it. >> dickerson: we'll be right back with more from our panel.

>> dickerson: jeffrey, i want to stick on republican side. donald trump got praise from vladimir put tip which he seemed to like. >> yes, he d. i've been thinking abut this all week. i can't recall similar experience which leading candidate or one. major parties is praising receiving praise from a former kgb, he's a former kgb official who is despot running adversarial country.

and trumps approach this this, his pleasure of this seems without precedent. i thought, okay this is the moment when republican base, which is pro-america and anti-russia, might say, hmm, maybe this guy is off his rocker. i don't know. but it seems as if we're just gliding right past this crossed line. the whole point of his campaign seems to be to cross lines. i can't remember -- not since world war ii have felt so warmly about candidate feel so warmly about russian leader. >> dickerson: george w. bush said he looked into his soul saw that -- >> not greatest moment in george w. bush's -- >> doesn't agree with that. trump, you say that you think he's crossed the line maybe people say off his rocker they have had ample opportunity to make this judgment along the way and they rejected it. he seems to be at least with his base impervious to that, the question is --

>> one thing to be bigoted against members cans, but i understand in the politics of the immigration debate. to talk about adversary as someone worthy of praise and worthy of receiving praise. he seems to enjoy flattering. >> i was going to say there's a curious quality about him. we think of hip as the insultnd candidate when somebody or something is nice to him, whether it's a new poll or vladimir putin he embraces that. and he gives it back. so nature of his personality -- he seeks to be liked. >> what they have done -- >> that's the argument. dickerson: the conversation about strength above all he said he's strong and he's leader. when challenged on this, told vladimir putin kills journalists he says america kills people, too. >> yes, that was an unusual --

not totally sure what it meant what he was referring to. >> dickerson: he means in wars, america kills people and so he was drawing equivalent there. >> i'm not sure what he meant. but i think part of the putin-trump story is that people understand that putin loves to make mischief. he has a mischievous side. i think a number of people interpreted putin's praise of trump to be an implicit criticism of obama, who he has been asked about in the past and who he has damned with praise. this is showing, i don't like obama, i like even this guy better. i think a number of people thought a little bit like that. >> dickerson: david, donald trump also accepting praise and there's in one relationship with ted cruz that are close in iowa, who what do you make -- but in the debate in particular they chose to be allies. what do you make of that? >> i was kind of surprised by

that, i thought that trump -- i think cruz is a real threat to trump. you can see it in his iowa numbers, cruz said some unkind thing about trump in private. he was asked about it. trump had the opportunity to do what rubio trying to do say, you know what, that's what politicians in washington d. they say one thing in a room, to their donors and another thing in public, he said i don't play that game. i tell you what i think. ted, you should speak up here and say to me what you said to those donors in the room. but going to dan's point, he's never really confronted people in that way unless someone attacks him. >> dickerson: right cruz figured that out. as he said in that room he's hugging him because that trump won't turn his guns on him. >> dickerson: what do you make, dan, of bush's decision to go after trump pretty much every time he speaks now he's got a shot at trump. is this going to work for him? >> i don't know if it's going to

work, john. he's got so many other problems as polling indicates, as we've known for many months. that i don't know whether this will move him into a really competitive position but he's clearly been liberated in some way as he suggested to you to really take on trump. it's clear that he dislikes trump, he thinks trump is not, as he said, a serious candidate for president. it offends him. he is the son and brother of former presidents. he knows what a president ought to look like and trump doesn't fit that model. he's decided to go after him. partly i think to just get it off his chest then see where they go. also freedom just another word for nothing. and liberating to be so down low in the polls. >> he neighborhooded a foil. he needed something to define his candidacy and he's found it in trump. the question is, whether there's time. whether ultimately the right guy for these times. >> dickerson: set up for

something larger? he seems to claiming that he is. somebody has to stand up for sort of a sense of principles and rules. this is what the republican party is about not just reason -- >> and bush has an opening here. you can be lib braid by losing. all of a sudden you're not fighting to hold on to number one or two you're way back. it's not work can, have good time get serious. bush's opportunity here not to go say, trump is a jerk. it's to do a serious speech and serious statements about what's wrong with trumpism and trump. be serious and thoughtful about it. >> people have tried that with little success. beginning with pickeerer rewho gave a very strong -- rick perry who gave a strong speech last july. >> timing is everything. >> the broader public service here for bush to say, if you don't know what the nuclear triad is you shouldn't be president. you shouldn't be running for president.

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>> dickerson: that's it for us today. next week we'll be looking back at 2015 with steven colbert and we'll talk to nasa commander scott kelly in space. be sure to join us. for face the jake i'm john dickerson. captioning sponsored by cbs captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org

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