>> dickerson: welcome back. we're back with anthony salvanto director of elections here at cbs. let's go back to iowa they're going to start vote in eight days. i can't believe it. cruz was up nine points in december. now trump is up five. cruz has been making a lot of attacks on trump saying he's not a consistent conservative, he doesn't believe what you believe. if that would work anywhere it would seem that iowa would be the place but it's not working. >> it's not. this is not necessarily an ideological election. this is about who can change things, this is he a bout who can fix things. and trump is ahead of cruz on those measures. you look at people who say they want the economy fixed. that's the number one thing behind donald trump's support. cruz's support is more concentrated in people who say they want a president who will defend their faith and defend

their religion. that's important in iowa. evangelical vote always important in iowa. but not quite large enough sled. not enough of voting block to put him now past donald trump. plus, you add in the fact that trump has cut into cruz's lead with evangelicals, cut into it with the tea party support and that adds up then to that trump number. >> dickerson: what are about trump voters. >> in your interview about loyalty. he's right about that. we've been reinterviewing people on this panel. >> dickerson: tracking over time. >> we sat here in september we talked about donald trump's support. we reinterviewed those people, they are still with him. over 909%. once they come to donald trump they stay there. and the other -- >> dickerson: that number 90% put that in context relative to somebody else. anybody up in the 90s anywhere close? >> no. because they have all been

shifted around. cruz took from carson. rubio's pulled from bush, et cetera. nobody matched that. at the same time, trump will eventually perhaps need to grow that base a little bit and maybe have some challenges there. >> dickerson: what are his challenges? >> i think you look at people who aren't with him as has often been the case they say they have hard time considering him. and many of them find him to be out of the mainstream. so, if he's going to get -- rest of the field were to consolidate he needs another 5 x 10% how does he get those people. that remains i think a challenge for him. of course tush out always big challenge in iowa. we did ask people, do you know where your caucus location is. that's the first thing to know. and trump's people say they did. >> dickerson: if you know what the caucus is you're likely to go. that's the big question for somebody who is bringing in new voters presumably. >> exactly. dickerson: let's talk about the other states that you looked

at. florida, texas, how is it looking in other states? >> looks like rest of the nation which is lot of trump. lot of trump lead. in florida he is up big. in georgia he's up. and in texas he is -- ted cruz that's his home state. you look at florida, that looks a lot like what the rest of the country looks like where marco rubio is from florida, of course, he's down there. he's in third place. competitive. but big picture here, john, is that look at this whole thing as a delicate fight that is going to go on for a few months. going to make a big deal out of iowa and new hampshire. but as we get into march these things, all these delegates are going to be up for grabs. and early part of february only like 5% of the delegates we're looking at here. >> dickerson: let's switch over to the democratic side. bernie sanders it's neck and neck but bernie sanders has got the momentum, what's behind it.

they're listening to his attacks on wall street. >> they are. i mentioned earlier that majority of democrats in iowa think that hillary clinton might side with big donors over regular people. where as 91% of them feel that bernie sanders would side with regular people over big donors. there's another part of this, too, you notice of course the race has gotten a little more heated in recent days. each have been critiquing each other, marginally iowa democrats feel that bernie sanders critiques on hillary clinton have been fair where as lesson hillary clinton's attacks on bernie sanders had been fair. in fact, even many of hillary clinton's supporters feel that bernie sanders makes their point about her. >> dickerson: does she have something that she does this she can hang on to that if we -- she should talk about that voters seem to be listening to when it comes to her? >> absolutely. it's electability. when you look at the people who

want most of all to win in november, they are overwhelmingly with her. like 75%. but also look at who wants to shake up the system, bernie sanders gets those voters. who wants to get progressive things done, bernie sanders gets those voters. very liberal iowa and new hampshire those things have appeal. that's what bolstering him at this point. >> dickerson: electability suggests there is a realistic mindset among democrats they're trying -- hillary clinton camp trying to paint bernie sanders as too idealistic, too pie in the sky. >> for her voters that's working. they actually ask this, they actually see bernie sanders as idealistic. where as his voters do see him as realistic. they fall into this. but at the same time, they look at where bernie sanders is doing well. he's doing well across very broad spectrum of voters, of course young people to your

point they might be first time voters. and one of the things we have to watch here as always is turn out. if his support is too concentrated in eastern iowa, this is a delegate fight, as folks watch they should note that in iowa, you're competing for delegates all across the state. and if the support is too concentrated in eastern iowa he can fall short with delegates. >> dickerson: thanks so much for being with us. we'll be right back with our panel. ♪ (cell phone rings) where are you? well the squirrels are back in the attic. mom? your dad won't call an exterminator...

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>> dickerson: now for some analysis, ruth marcus is columnist for the "washington post." matt lewis is a senior contributor for the "daily call" and with a new book. nancy cordes our congressional correspondent and ed o'keefe with the "washington post." matt, let me start with you. start with cruz and trump. what is the nature of that conflict right now with eight days to go before they start voting in iowa. >> it's fascinating those guys are populous conservatives. the establishment, not even establishment versus grass roots thing these for populous conservative kind of grass roots guys. they're really two heavy weights duking it out over iowa. i think if i had to pet right now i'd still go with ted cruz in iowa because of the ground game because he fits so well with the evangelical thing. but they hug each other for so

long and refused to throw punches, i wonder if ted cruz might have been getter off. >> dickerson: now throwing punches at such a rate, since i started talking, they're not really working for cruz against trump. at least as far as our poll and other polls are showing. >> they're not. because he's announcing that donald trump is part of the establishment which is hard case to make when the establishment has spent most of this campaign being openly horrified by trump. and so, yes, to the extent that they're now marginally more supportive of trump than cruz that's, a, because ted cruz is personable and trump might be better winning over some in a general election than cruz. but it's not as if they are embracing donald trump against cruz. idea it is weird we had this last week. we're used to endorsements but there are much more anti-endorsements than i have

seen. the anti-doorsment of cruz from number of republican senators. and then you also then had national review, ed, anti-endorsing donald trump. what's going on here? >> i think people panicking. i think 134 republicans saying where were you months ago. you should have done this in october or november. shouldn't be doing it eight days before the caucus, there's a point. this point it's pretty clear, two-guy race, two people that establishment republicans cannot stand they're going to have to live -- >> play good conservative who were calling out donald trump earlier. but i don't think that they really took him seriously enough. in fact lot of them empower them the tough radio host, rush limbaugh would really help by ignoring trump in some cases, this monster brewing now too late to stop him. >> i'm not sure it's too late to stop him. i do think it's important for us to understand, we're talking about two different republican establishments here.

actually i hate to disagree about conservatives with matt but i think trump and cruz are two very different candidates. is the republican conservative establishment, encapsulated, epitomized by the national review that we saw rising up against trump as not a true conservative. and then we have the lack of better term, washington establishment, because they were all stuck at home in the snow spent a lot of the day talking to them. they are much more horrified by cruz than by trump because cruz would take them down a road of extreme conservatism in the party. that trump would not. would have -- trump would have some potential, a, to be elected. b, to attract more moderate voters because he is a much less mainstream movement conservative candidate than is ted cruz. >> dickerson: nancy, you know the hill well, you've covered it, bob dole and former majority

leader trent lott. maybe donald trump might make some deals in washington, he might work, explain this among ted cruz and his colleagues, talk about the establishment in washington lot of the establishment figures are senators who work with ted cruz. >> what really angers them that he has made even the most conservative members of the senate look insufficiently conservative to their own voters. they feel that he has sold tea party voters a bill of goods in the sense that he railed against congress saying, they're not being true to you, they could be doing this, they could be defunding obamacare if they wanted to. they could defund planned parenthood if they wanted to they're not doing it because they're afraid. conservative members say, we'd love to do that but just not legislatively possible. beyond that, beyond the fact that they think that he he essentially misled voters they feel that he did it for his own

self-interest to raise money and that he put that ahead of his party. >> both i'd logical and personal. but the concern of the other conservative establishment has about trump i think is very valid and real, which is, listen to his interview with you as excellent question about his definition of conservatism. what didn't he mention? limited government. the essence of the conservative movement he never mentioned at all. by the way, for him to like enhim toll is ronald reagan i wanted -- wondered what ronald reagan in heaven is thinking about the guy putting up with vladimir putin. and everybody -- but some more basis than others. >> dickerson: let's talk about the other candidates not named trump and cruz. what is the state that have conversation? >> fascinating sort of subdrama going on underneath really among one senator and three governors in new hampshire.

anthony's numbers are really reflect. idea now that you've got john kasich, chris christie and jeb bushy senn shelly running for fourth and viewers might think why does that matter? realistically perhaps only four people are going to be able to get out much new hampshire and make some kind of claim to continue on in this race. he was saying earlier there's real jump ball among republicans who want to find a more main line or establishment republican, some voters described it to their facesa grown up republican, to continue on. with the idea that come march maybe even into april there are races out there that those governors could do better in if the other three guys, chiefly trump, cruz, senator marco rubio don't do as well. >> dickerson: there's old cliche you can't beat something with nothing. we ha had the anti-endorsements, people are clear about who they don't like. there's nobody that they do like, that they have been able to rally around, single alternative to trump and cruz? >> absolutely.

there's this weird phenomenon my book called "too dumb to fail" for a reason. it's because we have this weird situation, if you say something dumb or crazy you go up in the polls. there's this perverse incentive and moral hazard to do that, people are much more responsible optimistic conservatives in the vein of ronald reagan, somebody like marco rubio, he is -- he's on the edge, he's sort of like football team who doesn't control his own destiny. he can still make it into the super bowl but he needs some different things to fall. but if people coalesced around rubio maybe he might be in better position for that. >> dickerson: ruth, we're hearing some of the people he can wait until march 15 for florida and ohio voting. delegate mass does get better for some candidates within they can win those later, winner take all states that's long time after voting begins. >> i think i have few words to that which is with president

guiliani about that. by which i mean, you cannot discount the significance of momentum in politics. if that's their argument, that's not the argument i'd want to be making. there is a desire among slot of voters, anthony talked about this. the anti-trump vote. also there's anti-cruz vote. for a big segment even republican primary electorate. inability to coalesce and anybody of these guys to elbow everybody else out of the field. that's going to happen. but, boy, waiting to catch fire, that's a tough one. >> this is thing that people need to remember. the first four, iowa, new hampshire, south carolina, nevada. we have march 15th in the distance but everything that happens in between that is causing all this broker conventions the idea that someone like cruz can still prevail you have all these

states in the south where proportional contests people pick up these very slowly across the south and in texas. that is why there's so much concern still about scatter shot nature of this race, if you don't have three or four guys solidly competing eventually going down to one or two that's why you might see this really chaotic situation. >> the trump numbers in florida, webber take all. >> dickerson: we'll be back in moment we'll talk about democrats all of you stick with us we'll be right back.

>> dickerson: we're back with our panel. nancy, in october people were saying hillary clinton had gotten past her difficulties, millennium story was behind her, she had the testimony on the hill that went well, she did well in first debate now she's in trouble, what happened? >> she stuck with her strategy. from the very beginning the case she's been making is i'm experienced, i'm dependable, i'm going to continue president obama's gains. i think that democratic voters

by and large believe that, but it doesn't excite them. she got challenge from the left in bernie sanders she didn't recalibrate try to capture the love of those voters. for example, she's going after him on -- perhaps that's true, but 07% of democratic voters the notion of single payer system. that doesn't win them over any more than he would if he said, you're gun control ideas are unrealistic, that is something that would turn off democratic voters. >> dickerson: we seem to be having discussion in both parties about pragmatic, person with lot of skills, been in there, doing the hard work various different levels. the person who just speaks to your heart. >> absolutely. you have this really interesting phenomenon where some cases you have people like ted cruz and bernie sanders making the same exact anti-crony capitalist argument against things like free trade interesting phenomenon. these outsiders who are really

gaining steam and momentum. i do think there's a difference, the old saw used to be that republicans fell in line, democrats fall in love. the opposite now. there's a flirtation with bernie is great in lilly white space of new hampshire and iowa. i think democrats will be much more pragmatic and eventually fall in behind hillary. the think the republicans are in the wilderness that's where the real action is. >> dickerson: political report did analysis of the states found that iowa and new hampshire are the most liberal -- have most liberal voters in the democratic process, only one more liberal is vermont. the road ahead for bernie sanders should also note hillary clinton has number of superdelegates already banked. she does have a system that benefits her the longer she goes on. >> i think south carolina most reflect sieve of that. she has a huge lead among african americans in nevada, hispanic voters will make a big difference, clintons have long history with latino voters.

in the video that senator was ad that senator's campaign released with the simon and gary funk emus i can resembled the motion picture association a way a little too white. problem for sappedders that he doesn't have real deep connections with minority voters who will make a huge difference in the coming states for democratic party. >> dickerson: what did you make of that ad? >> you know, i am the person who hates ads without substance. i was transported by that ad. i think that that ad tells you everything that you need to understand about the state of the race right now. because i think the clinton campaign is listening to you saying, thinking, if only. because -- if only those democrats would fall in line. i think they probably ultimately will but we are definitely in the falling in love stage of the campaign and so hillary clinton's ads up right now hits the experience, hits the day one, hits practicality argument. right now we're seeing as with a

certain other campaign from eight years ago, transporting phase. swept away phase of the democratic primary campaign. >> when you talk to iowa voters, democrats, they say openly, we miss the magic. they feel like they want the first identified what superstar barack obama was they lunched him on his way. they miss that feeling. they want that feeling again. and the closest they can get to it is bernie sanders. >> they miss that magic, but even president obama misses that magic which is to say he knows that the magic doesn't really exist in the current state of reality in washington. >> yet that doesn't seem to matter to a lot of these people. i've been through a few rallies and focus on republicans at the young voters who show up, you realize these kids were too young to have even been involved in the obama campaign in 2008. their older siblings might have been involved these guys are now

getting that chance to hang out with this old uncle figure essentially who is looking out for them. wants to give them free college. this is working in these early states. you talk say realize that isn't practical. he's talking to me. like he understands me. >> it's the same thing on republican side. you have jeb bush and john kasich i'ming i'm a governor i know how to balance a budget i can get things done. but what voters attracted to at this stage of the race? donald trump ted cruz making this full throat argument in favor of conservative people don't care. >> the problem with the republicans if they go the donald trump route then they are demographically destined to huge long term failure being this party on the book. it's very dangerous for generations even if they win in the short term known as the white working class party that doesn't care about a lot of other americans. >> dickerson: ask you about this, talking about a appeal of

emotionalism. michael braggberg may be -- >> more than needling. dickerson: not yet in. prejumping in. because he wants to be the guy who can get things done, does he have a chance? >> they have polled it in bloomberg world they believe, yes. but here is the bloomberg thinking as i understand it. he is looking -- that bloomberg-trump romance will be shorter lived than the trump-cruz romance. he is looking at the possibility of trump and/or cruz both of which are -- perhaps different reasons. and possibility standard. if hillary clinton comes out of iowa and new hampshire looking a little bit stronger than she may look right now which street to say winning iowa. that will dissuade him f. it's sanders, not. he wants to run not as take your

guns, take away your sodas bloomberg but as fiscal conservative, socially liberal bloomberg. >> dickerson: have to leave it there. thanks so much, ruth, nancy, ed, matt. thank you. thank you for trucking through the snow this morning, literally trucking through the snow. we'll be back in a moment. remen. we're putting away acorns. you know, to show the importance of saving for the future. so you're sort of like a spokes person? more of a spokes metaphor. get organized at voya.com.

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>> dickerson: as we say good buy want to share our favorite snow picture from here in washington. captioning sponsored by cbs captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org

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toward the super bowl -- as o come alive the stage is halfway set. peyton manning is off and running toward the super bowl as san francisco begins to come alive with the construction of the fan experience known as super bowl city. good evening to you. i'm juliette goodrich. brian hackney is off tonight. it's getting real. super bowl 50 is two weeks from today and tonight the teams are nearly set. we know the denver broncos are in. now we're waiting for their opponent. there's no waiting for super bowl city. it is going up as we speak and that's where mark kelly is tonight with a progress report.